A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[moonslav59]

The Sox business plan going forward has to consider the likely competition they will face in Houston, Yankees, TB and Cleveland. If it looks unlikely we can compete in 2020 (it does), then it should be identified as the reset season and changes made should reflect that. A lot revolves around how well Sale, Price and Eovaldi can rebound from 2019. I view it as unlikely that all 3 can have fully competitive years in 2020 and there is a possibility all three could again have sub par years.

 

True, and we may try and cut our losses by trading one of our 3 costly starters (paying part of their deals) to help with the reset and allow us budget flexibility to sign more under the radar players.

 

Houston got this good by getting really bad for a few years. I'm hopeful we can get back to the top without using that model.

[moonslav59]

OPS Against (notice all the pen arms):

 

.438 Workman

 

.614 Walden

.616 Taylor

 

.671 Barnes

.677 DHern

.687 Brasier

.695 Sale

 

.712 Lakins

.728 ERod

.758 Weber

.759 Price

.769 JSmith

 

.795 Velazquez

.802 Hembree

.806 Porcello

.815 Brewer

 

.912 Eovaldi

 

.963 Shawaryn

.964 Cashner

.972 Thornburg

1.013 Johnson

 

K Rates (20+ IP)

16.4 DHern

16.0 Barnes

13.3 Sale

12.7 Workman

11.6 Taylor

10.8 Price

10.7 Hembree

9.0 Brasier

8.9 Walden

8.8 Eovaldi

8.7 ERod

 

[kenmeister]

Fascinating! Johnson makes every batter look like Mike Trout; got it. Happy to try someone else in the opener role.

[moonslav59]

Fascinating! Johnson makes every batter look like Mike Trout; got it. Happy to try someone else in the opener role.

 

Last year, it was .773...kinda like Sam Travis or Chavis.

[moonslav59]

How about Setember 1st, we DFA Curletta & Owings, add Houck and Chatham to the 40 man roster, and call those two up with Dalbec, Lin, Centeno, Lakins, Velazquez, Poyner and maybe Brewer.

 

Do we DFA someone else (Kelley?) to add and call up Ockimey? (We could also put Price on the 60 day DL to make room.)

[jung]

I am desperately worried that we will trade DHern and I am equally worried that we will keep him and hobble him in the process. How is that for a confidently offered musing?

 

Even Weber could be better than he is if we actually knew how to work with pitchers. BJ misses barrels. He just does not miss enough of them. That could have its genesis in a very specific issue that nobody is effectively helping him to resolve since the pitches he throws that land smack in the middle of the plate look like they are gong to land there as soon as they leave his hand. I would actually keep Weber before I kept BJ and would as soon throw both Weber and BJ overboard while truly rueing seeing DHern go.

 

If DHern went out the door, I would be simply waiting for the day when he returned in an enemy uni pounding us senseless.

[Bellhorn04]

I am desperately worried that we will trade DHern and I am equally worried that we will keep him and hobble him in the process. How is that for a confidently offered musing?

 

Even Weber could be better than he is if we actually knew how to work with pitchers. BJ misses barrels. He just does not miss enough of them. That could have its genesis in a very specific issue that nobody is effectively helping him to resolve since the pitches he throws that land smack in the middle of the plate look like they are gong to land there as soon as they leave his hand. I would actually keep Weber before I kept BJ and would as soon throw both Weber and BJ overboard while truly rueing seeing DHern go.

 

If DHern went out the door, I would be simply waiting for the day when he returned in an enemy uni pounding us senseless.

 

I think they will definitely hold on to DHern.

[moonslav59]

I can't see us trading DHernandez, unless it's part of a bigger package for a better young player with a surer future and/or higher upside.

 

He's the only young pitcher we have that is major league ready and has shown something of value, this year. (Taylor is 26.)

 

[jacksonianmarch]

DHern has dominant stuff, but his lack of command absolutely limits his ceiling. He cannot close at the rate he is walking people. His ceiling will always be limited until he gets that walk rate below 5 per 9 as a reliever. He is the kind of guy who could turn into a Betances or turn into a Daniel Cabrera. Betances couldn't throw strikes in the minors then found it in AAA as a reliever.

[moonslav59]

DHern has dominant stuff, but his lack of command absolutely limits his ceiling. He cannot close at the rate he is walking people. His ceiling will always be limited until he gets that walk rate below 5 per 9 as a reliever. He is the kind of guy who could turn into a Betances or turn into a Daniel Cabrera. Betances couldn't throw strikes in the minors then found it in AAA as a reliever.

 

That's the hope.

 

His K rate is off the charts, but his BB/9 is through the ceiling.

 

No doubt, he has nasty stuff.

 

[kenmeister]

It’s E-Rod day! Time to continue the quest for 18+ wins.

[moonslav59]

It’s E-Rod day! Time to continue the quest for 18+ wins.

 

Take comfort in the fact that we are 20-7 in his starts, this year.

 

Last year, we were 19-4.

 

The guy is a winner!

 

39-11 in his last 50 starts.

 

78%!!!!

 

(And, people wanted to trade him.)

[kenmeister]

Take comfort in the fact that we are 20-7 in his starts, this year.

 

Last year, we were 19-4.

 

The guy is a winner!

 

39-11 in his last 50 starts.

 

78%!!!!

 

(And, people wanted to trade him.)

 

Those are very cool numbers!

 

Remaining E-Rod starts projection:

8/28

9/3

9/8

9/14

9/19

9/24

9/29

 

That's 7 starts left by my count. At 15 wins, he has an outside chance of 20 wins, and an excellent chance for 18 wins.

 

Red Sox staff leaders in wins:

2018 - Porcello at 17

2017 - Sale & Pomeranz tied at 17

2016 - Porcello at 22

2015 - Wade Miley at 11 (yikes!)

2014 - John Lackey at 11 (yikes again!)

2013 - Jon Lester at 15

2012 - Buchholz and Doubront tied at 11 (oh my goodness!)

2011 - Jon Lester at 15

2010 - Jon Lester at 19

2009 - Josh Beckett at 17

2008 - Daisuke Matsuzaka at 18 (remember him?)

2007 - Josh Beckett at 20

2006 - Josh Beckett at 16

2005 - Tim Wakefield at 16

2004 - Curt Schilling at 21

2003 - Derek Lowe at 17

2002 - Derek Lowe at 21

2001 - Hideo Nomo at 13

2000 - Pedro Martinez at 18

 

So if E-Rod gets to 19 wins, he'll be tied for 5th in highest Red Sox wins in the last 20 years.

[moonslav59]

Those are very cool numbers!

 

Remaining E-Rod starts projection:

8/28

9/3

9/8

9/14

9/19

9/24

9/29

 

That's 7 starts left by my count. At 15 wins, he has an outside chance of 20 wins, and an excellent chance for 18 wins.

 

Red Sox staff leaders in wins:

2018 - Porcello at 17

2017 - Sale & Pomeranz tied at 17

2016 - Porcello at 22

2015 - Wade Miley at 11 (yikes!)

2014 - John Lackey at 11 (yikes again!)

2013 - Jon Lester at 15

2012 - Buchholz and Doubront tied at 11 (oh my goodness!)

2011 - Jon Lester at 15

2010 - Jon Lester at 19

2009 - Josh Beckett at 17

2008 - Daisuke Matsuzaka at 18 (remember him?)

2007 - Josh Beckett at 20

2006 - Josh Beckett at 16

2005 - Tim Wakefield at 16

2004 - Curt Schilling at 21

2003 - Derek Lowe at 17

2002 - Derek Lowe at 21

2001 - Hideo Nomo at 13

2000 - Pedro Martinez at 18

 

So if E-Rod gets to 19 wins, he'll be in the top 5 for highest Red Sox wins in the last 20 years.

 

I knew 20 game winners have been in decline, but this was still surprising to me.

[oldtimer]

Those are very cool numbers!

 

Remaining E-Rod starts projection:

8/28

9/3

9/8

9/14

9/19

9/24

9/29

 

That's 7 starts left by my count. At 15 wins, he has an outside chance of 20 wins, and an excellent chance for 18 wins.

 

Red Sox staff leaders in wins:

2018 - Porcello at 17

2017 - Sale & Pomeranz tied at 17

2016 - Porcello at 22

2015 - Wade Miley at 11 (yikes!)

2014 - John Lackey at 11 (yikes again!)

2013 - Jon Lester at 15

2012 - Buchholz and Doubront tied at 11 (oh my goodness!)

2011 - Jon Lester at 15

2010 - Jon Lester at 19

2009 - Josh Beckett at 17

2008 - Daisuke Matsuzaka at 18 (remember him?)

2007 - Josh Beckett at 20

2006 - Josh Beckett at 16

2005 - Tim Wakefield at 16

2004 - Curt Schilling at 21

2003 - Derek Lowe at 17

2002 - Derek Lowe at 21

2001 - Hideo Nomo at 13

2000 - Pedro Martinez at 18

 

So if E-Rod gets to 19 wins, he'll be tied for 5th in highest Red Sox wins in the last 20 years.

 

He has been fortunate to get great run support this year. Others on the staff haven't been that lucky.

[moonslav59]

He has been fortunate to get great run support this year. Others on the staff haven't been that lucky.

 

It's not all about run support. ERod seems to let up just enough runs to keep us in the game, but you are right: we score for him.

 

Run support per IP:

7.4 DHern

7.2 Porcello

7.2 ERod

5.9 Johnson

5.3 Cashner

4.5 Weber

4.3 Price

4.3 Eovaldi

3.7 Sale

2.9 Velazquez

1.1 Josh Smith

 

Here's a look at IP per GS:

6.0 ERod

5.9 Sale

5.5 Porcello

5.1 Cashner

5.0 Price

4.3 Eovaldi

 

3.8 Weber

3.7 Smith

3.3 Johnson

3.0 DHern

2.8 Velaz.

[moonslav59]

After Bogey's HR, tonight, we currently have 3 guys over .955:

 

.966 JD

 

.959 Devers

 

.955 Bogey

 

I think all three are in the top 10 in MLB, right now.

 

Who-da-thunk we'd have 3 guys over .955 and none were named Mookie?

Edited August 29, 2019 by moonslav59

[jad]

Bogie, Devers, Vazquez, Workman and when used, Marco have done well.

 

Walden & ERod, too.

 

All the rest fell short of my hopes or expectations.

 

Martinez? Holt? Both having good years. Even Benintendi is right on his career numbers.

[moonslav59]

Martinez? Holt? Both having good years. Even Benintendi is right on his career numbers.

 

JD, yes. Holt, yes, when healthy. Beni did okay, but I expected an uptick as he approaches peak prime.

 

How about our race for OPS leader?

 

.966 Bogey (3 for 4 with 2HRs and a 2B, BB

.964 Devers ( 3-5 HR)

.963 JD (2-5 HR)

 

[a700hitter]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/08/red-sox-interested-in-jhoulys-chacin.html

 

[h=1]Red Sox Interested In Jhoulys Chacin[/h]By Connor Byrne | August 30, 2019 at 9:37pm CDT

Free-agent right-hander Jhoulys Chacin conducted a workout with the Red Sox on Friday, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald reports. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Alex Cora were on hand to watch Chacin throw a bullpen session in Anaheim, but it’s unknown whether Boston will sign the hurler.

Chacin has been available since the Brewers released him Monday, which was an especially damning transaction when considering the adversity their rotation has gone through this season. After back-to-back quality seasons with the Padres and Brewers, Chacin dealt with multiple injuries and struggled to a 5.79 ERA/5.68 FIP with 8.12 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9 in 19 starts and 88 2/3 innings this year. The Brewers elected to cut ties with Chacin as a result, even though they’re short on viable starters and had to eat the rest of his $6MM salary in releasing him.

The Red Sox are also in dire straits in their rotation, leading to their interest in Chacin. They’re likely to go without injured ace Chris Sale for the rest of the year, while David Price (nearing activation from the IL), Nathan Eovaldi and Rick Porcello haven’t given the team the type of production it expected entering the campaign. Thanks in part to their starting staff’s issues, the defending champion Red Sox are a strong bet to miss the playoffs. Nevertheless, they could take a late-season flier on Chacin, who has a fan in Sox scout Steve Peck, according to Silverman. The club worked out Chacin at Peck’s recommendation.

[moonslav59]

Wow, if we can sign this guy, I'll be a believer, again.

[a700hitter]

Prior to this season, Chacin's past 2 seasons (2017 & 18) weren't bad.

[notin]

Prior to this season, Chacin's past 2 seasons (2017 & 18) weren't bad.

 

His brother might have been the ugliest player ever...

[notin]

Wow, if we can sign this guy, I'll be a believer, again.

 

It's good to see DD interested in baseball again...

[Bellhorn04]

His brother might have been the ugliest player ever...

 

There's no doubt about that.

[oldtimer]

It's good to see DD interested in baseball again...

 

Maybe interested in saving his job.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have signed free-agent right-hander Jhoulys Chacin to a minor-league deal, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Many expected Chacin to sign on with the Red Sox, who expressed interest in the ex-Brewer after he threw a bullpen session in front of Red Sox brass.

 

We're back in the race, guys!!!

[notin]

The Red Sox have signed free-agent right-hander Jhoulys Chacin to a minor-league deal, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Many expected Chacin to sign on with the Red Sox, who expressed interest in the ex-Brewer after he threw a bullpen session in front of Red Sox brass.

 

We're back in the race, guys!!!

 

Whether or not this works out, at least DD finally did something.

 

It’s good to see he finally saw a free agent pitcher he liked as much as he liked Chris Owings...

[oldtimer]

Whether or not this works out, at least DD finally did something.

 

It’s good to see he finally saw a free agent pitcher he liked as much as he liked Chris Owings...

 

It's also a testimony to how low opinions of Johnson and Cashner have fallen. If Chacin is a solid possibility it is probably more to do with next year.

[fxkatt]

Chacin has meaning now we are only 4-5 down in the loss column. In a way, this is the best moment of the year, because each game carries a hell of lot of weight. It feels like the NFL on day one and throughout.