A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder if his value is that high based on this year. No doubt he is a 5 tool player and is very good. On the other hand, he is not a Trout so somehow we have to value him fairly and offer accordingly. If some are willing to pay much more, then that is up to their organization and will hamper them in future.

 

He's not a Trout, but he's better than Machado and Harper. 8 years @ 32.5 mill = 260 mill has to be in the ballpark of his market value.

[moonslav59]

He's not a Trout, but he's better than Machado and Harper. 8 years @ 32.5 mill = 260 mill has to be in the ballpark of his market value.

 

I'd do $33M x 8, easily. I might go $30M x 10, which is $34M x 2 more.

[jung]

I'd do $33M x 8, easily. I might go $30M x 10, which is $34M x 2 more.

 

Some team looking to make Mookie their complete marketing effort will offer him more than 33x8. Probably more than 30x10. I would offer Mookie 33x8. They should offer Mookie 33x8. But I doubt he will take it.

[OH FOY]

Trade him. Contracts that are offered here are death March's to teams. When is the tough time. You cant predict injuries, but as a GM, you have to think that way.

Name 1-10 year contract that worked out? Then name 1- 8 year contract that worked out?

Good thing the Yanks signed both Ellsbury and Stanton. They would have ton of space this Off-Season.

Ended up they needed neither.

Edited September 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Some team looking to make Mookie their complete marketing effort will offer him more than 33x8. Probably more than 30x10. I would offer Mookie 33x8. They should offer Mookie 33x8. But I doubt he will take it.

 

If we make an offer like that, and he bolts, I won't be upset with management.

 

Other than the Lester fiasco, we've done a good job placing a value on our own talent, making good offers, and walking away, when someone offers more. It's one area we seem to be very good in.

[notin]

You mean reset before 2020, right?

 

Yes, Captain Correction

[Bellhorn04]

Trade him. Contracts that are offered here are death March's to teams. When is the tough time.

 

Yeah, that Manny Ramirez contract absolutely killed us.

 

You do have a point. But let's not forget that some of those contracts do pay off.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, Captain Correction

 

Or the Clarifier, as Denny calls me. In the office I've been called Hawkeye for my proofreading skills.

[notin]

Or the Clarifier, as Denny calls me. In the office I've been called Hawkeye for my proofreading skills.

 

And that’s just what they call you to your face

[OH FOY]

Yeah, that Manny Ramirez contract absolutely killed us.

 

You do have a point. But let's not forget that some of those contracts do pay off.

 

Were still paying Manny. Deferred but it's payroll.

[moonslav59]

Were still paying Manny. Deferred but it's payroll.

 

Yes, he gets $2M a year until 2026. Lucky it doesn't count on the luxury tax ticker.

 

That being said, it was one of the greatest Sox FA signing ever

 

[OH FOY]

Yeah, that Manny Ramirez contract absolutely killed us.

 

You do have a point. But let's not forget that some of those contracts do pay off.

 

That contract was signed in 2000, and yes we got Lucky the Dodgers grabbed him just when he was going to make the big bucks.

That one worked out, 8 years good production, name another. That was 19 years ago. There must be a lot more then just this one.

[OH FOY]

Cabrera? That one stinks, going to kill the Tigers. Both Manny and Cabrera are both HOF's too. Mookie still too early to tell.

[OH FOY]

If what everybody says the 8-10 year contracts, work I think you should have multiple examples, not just one, that did. Bad Odds.

[Slasher9]

I’m predicting his next deal is similar to Molan Arenado’s deal - neighborhood of 8 years / $260mill...

 

that would be a discount. he aint signing for a discount. 10/$345MM is my prodiction.

[OH FOY]

Here's the Top Contracts.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/contract-value/

 

The Top 10 guys wont make the Play-offs. Maybe the Phillies. Stanton Injured didn't count him. He contributed nothing this year. 31 at bats, he did very little to help the Yanks win.

Edited September 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

A large percent of the highest paid contracts did not turn out well for the teams. Even the ones that did work had issues.

 

However, most of those deals were with players that were older or much older than Betts will be when he is a FA.

[OH FOY]

A large percent of the highest paid contracts did not turn out well for the teams. Even the ones that did work had issues.

 

However, most of those deals were with players that were older or much older than Betts will be when he is a FA.

 

He'll be 28 going into the 2021 season. Oct. 7th is his Birthday.

Edited September 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

that would be a discount. he aint signing for a discount. 10/$345MM is my prodiction.

 

I don’t think so. Machado, Harper and Trout were all at least two years younger than Mookie will be when he becomes FA.

 

Age is becoming a big deal for free agents and potential free agents...

[OH FOY]

OK sign him 10 years, all contracts should be looked at it another way too. If team is not good, and your looking to move people, can you move this contract in 5 years, too get good Prospects, without paying anything, at age 33.

Contracts have to viewed at not only the Present but the future too.

He'll be a 5-10 guy too, so he dictates where he wants to play.

Edited September 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[oldtimer]

I'd do $33M x 8, easily. I might go $30M x 10, which is $34M x 2 more.

 

Your talking more money than I think he is worth. I was thinking $26 for 8.

[Slasher9]

I don’t think so. Machado, Harper and Trout were all at least two years younger than Mookie will be when he becomes FA.

 

Age is becoming a big deal for free agents and potential free agents...

 

right. that's why he wont get 12 years like trout or 13 years like Harper.

the fun thing is, in 1.5 years (barring a severe injury to Mook) we can revisit this.

[OH FOY]

right. that's why he wont get 12 years like trout or 13 years like Harper.

the fun thing is, in 1.5 years (barring a severe injury to Mook) we can revisit this.

 

Mookie is a FA after next year, so basically a little more then a year 14 Months. I bet 24 million this year in Arbitration.

Edited September 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

That contract was signed in 2000, and yes we got Lucky the Dodgers grabbed him just when he was going to make the big bucks.

 

Um, what are you talking about?

[Bellhorn04]

A large percent of the highest paid contracts did not turn out well for the teams. Even the ones that did work had issues.

 

It's virtually guaranteed that every mega-contract will have issues. There are hardly any players that go out and produce like clockwork and don't get injured, for 8 straight years or whatever it is.

[notin]

It's virtually guaranteed that every mega-contract will have issues. There are hardly any players that go out and produce like clockwork and don't get injured, for 8 straight years or whatever it is.

 

I think most GMs get this better than we do. The logic is that payout over the first few years needs to eclipse the albatross of the later ones. That's why they backload these deals very often - in order to put a better team around the mega contract player while he is still in or near his peak years. As he declines, the team was likely to be worse anyway, so the player gets paid more and the supporting cast isn't as good...

[Slasher9]

Mookie is a FA after next year, so basically a little more then a year 14 Months. I bet 24 million this year in Arbitration.

 

i didnt know how to put that 2 months so i just went with 1.5.

i agree with you about this coming season. 24 sounds right.

and that is why he can "afford" to roll the dice next season to get to FA. he could snap a knee April 1st and have a pretty decent life "scrapping" by on that final $24MM.....

10 years / $345MM. book it.

[dgalehouse]

I think the owners and G.M. s know that these big contracts are for too much money , too many years and will cause problems sooner or later . But if you don't do it , you don't get the top players .

[Slasher9]

I think the owners and G.M. s know that these big contracts are for too much money , too many years and will cause problems sooner or later . But if you don't do it , you don't get the top players .

 

the GM may think its too much but the owners dont mind. owners make money on the player:

The Boston Red Sox superstar has the third-highest-selling jersey among all Major League Baseball players in 2019, MLB.com revealed Thursday, citing data from Fanatics online shops. Betts’ No. 50 shirt trails just Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper and New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge in the rankings of sales of Majestic jerseys from MLBShop.com.

 

Read more at: https://nesn.com/2019/03/heres-where-mookie-betts-jersey-ranks-among-mlbs-most-popular-in-2019/

[dgalehouse]

the GM may think its too much but the owners dont mind. owners make money on the player:

The Boston Red Sox superstar has the third-highest-selling jersey among all Major League Baseball players in 2019, MLB.com revealed Thursday, citing data from Fanatics online shops. Betts’ No. 50 shirt trails just Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper and New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge in the rankings of sales of Majestic jerseys from MLBShop.com.

 

Read more at: https://nesn.com/2019/03/heres-where-mookie-betts-jersey-ranks-among-mlbs-most-popular-in-2019/

No doubt the profits are enormous. The owners are doing very well . They can afford it .