A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Slasher9]

this will be the funniest thing you've seen this week:

[Maxbialystock]

I looked up bullpen salaries with an expectation of proving you can get a pretty darn good one for $30M/year.

 

Wrong. The Yankees have four very good relievers--Brittan, Kahnle, Ottavino, and Chapman--who make a combined $40.4M. Chapman gets $17M, Britton $13M, and Ottavino $9M.

 

And guess what the Sox pay their so-so bullpen? $5.5M total for Barnes, Hembree, Workman, Walden, Brasier, and Weber. Barnes is top dollar at $1.6M and Weber is low with $400K.

 

Obviously, the Yankees can afford to pay more for their bullpen because they are paying less for their lineup and rotation.

 

I thought I would tack this on. I looked up the combined WAR's for 5 Yankees relievers (the 4 above plus Holder), and they added up to 4.3. I then looked up the 5 Sox relievers I named above, and their combined WAR so far is 3.8.

 

So the idiot DD who assembled a worthless bullpen by going on the cheap ($5.5M for all five of them) just might not be a complete idiot.

 

Since I happen to think the Yankees bullpen right now is their best asset, I actually think that $40M for their four best is worth it since their overall payroll is well under ours.

 

And just maybe WAR isn't quite that useful if our best five have a combined WAR almost as good as the Yankees best five (actually, best 4 plus Holder).

[Slasher9]

i dont think WAR provides much value when looking at relief pitchers.

[mvp 78]

Maybe only using WAR for any argument isn't the way to go?

[harmony]

i dont think WAR provides much value when looking at relief pitchers.

WAR has many of the same small-sample limitations that other reliever stats have.

[vegasbob]

I thought I would tack this on. I looked up the combined WAR's for 5 Yankees relievers (the 4 above plus Holder), and they added up to 4.3. I then looked up the 5 Sox relievers I named above, and their combined WAR so far is 3.8.

 

So the idiot DD who assembled a worthless bullpen by going on the cheap ($5.5M for all five of them) just might not be a complete idiot.

 

Since I happen to think the Yankees bullpen right now is their best asset, I actually think that $40M for their four best is worth it since their overall payroll is well under ours.

 

And just maybe WAR isn't quite that useful if our best five have a combined WAR almost as good as the Yankees best five (actually, best 4 plus Holder).

 

If you were in DD's shoes post WS 2018, wouldn't Ottavino at $9MM cause you to make a few other adjustments to be able to afford him ? Just amazing that a WS winner, with a $230-$240MM budget range would spend under $6MM on the keys pen guys , 2.5% of budget. I don't think you can underestimate the impact of the dead money contracts on this team going back to Hanley, Panda and regrettably now Pedey.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

 

Xander Bogaerts .342/.406/.632 in his last 27 games with 17 XBHs, 24 RBI, 30 runs.

 

Second among AL shortstops for the season in OPS.

 

At 26, with two rings, becoming an influential voice in the clubhouse, too. Really has blossomed into everything the Sox hoped for.

[notin]

If you were in DD's shoes post WS 2018, wouldn't Ottavino at $9MM cause you to make a few other adjustments to be able to afford him ? Just amazing that a WS winner, with a $230-$240MM budget range would spend under $6MM on the keys pen guys , 2.5% of budget. I don't think you can underestimate the impact of the dead money contracts on this team going back to Hanley, Panda and regrettably now Pedey.

 

 

Hanley was already off the books. And Pedroia wasn’t “dead money” yet. It’s not like the Sox went out and spent for another 2b.

 

But if the Sox didn’t sign Pearce and non-tendered Thornburg, that would have accounted for nearly $7mill of the necessary $9mill....

[Bellhorn04]

Hanley was already off the books. And Pedroia wasn’t “dead money” yet. It’s not like the Sox went out and spent for another 2b.

 

But if the Sox didn’t sign Pearce and non-tendered Thornburg, that would have accounted for nearly $7mill of the necessary $9mill....

 

$9 mill times 3 = $27 mill.

 

But I'm not arguing with the position that Ottavino would have been a good signing at that price.

[notin]

$9 mill times 3 = $27 mill.

 

But I'm not arguing with the position that Ottavino would have been a good signing at that price.

 

 

I was only looking at AAV and how it relates to 2019.

 

The Sox recoup the rest of the money by avoiding the temptation to extend Sandoval...

[Bellhorn04]

I was only looking at AAV and how it relates to 2019.

 

The Sox recoup the rest of the money by avoiding the temptation to extend Sandoval...

 

Ha, you creative accountant you.

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe only using WAR for any argument isn't the way to go?

 

I like the WAR stat because it's the only one that attempts to evaluate the whole player and compare different skill sets--hitting, pitching, defense--to a common standard.

 

But this example doesn't seem to pass the straight face test. No way is our bullpen comparable the Yankees.

[Kimmi]

I think this team will oscillate between .500 and .530 the rest of the way. Maybe they reach a high water mark of .550 for few shining days. Of course Eovaldi could come back and be awesome, or they could make a trade that changes everything.

 

That would be more likely if the state of the competition were any better. But there are a lot of weak teams out there.

[Kimmi]

I like the WAR stat because it's the only one that attempts to evaluate the whole player and compare different skill sets--hitting, pitching, defense--to a common standard.

 

But this example doesn't seem to pass the straight face test. No way is our bullpen comparable the Yankees.

 

Matt Barnes said it best. Many people had a preconceived notion that our BP would not be good because we did not sign that big name closer and confirmation bias is playing into that preconceived notion. We need bullpen reinforcement(s), but the bullpen, to date, has not been our weak link.

[harmony]

That would be more likely if the state of the competition were any better. But there are a lot of weak teams out there.

The Red Sox schedule only gets harder.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

[moonslav59]

An interesting stat tidbit:

 

OPS last 14 Days:

 

1.026 Nunez

.929 Holt

.499 Chavis

 

OPS last 28 Days:

 

.929 Holt

.727 Nunez

.685 Chavis

 

[oldtimer]

An interesting stat tidbit:

 

OPS last 14 Days:

 

1.026 Nunez

.929 Holt

.499 Chavis

 

OPS last 28 Days:

 

.929 Holt

.727 Nunez

.685 Chavis

 

 

It is interesting and indicates what we can see about Chavis having troubles, mainly hitting high heat but his confidence may also be shaken. We get Moreland back and Chavis can get a rest.

 

By the way, I noticed Kimbrel got a multiyear contract offer from the Cubs provided he meets the physical.

[devildavid]

An interesting stat tidbit:

 

OPS last 14 Days:

 

1.026 Nunez

.929 Holt

.499 Chavis

 

OPS last 28 Days:

 

.929 Holt

.727 Nunez

.685 Chavis

 

 

Not surprised that the Brock star has been a spark. He's that kind of player. His big problem lately is staying healthy.

 

The league now has a book on Chavis. Let's see if he can make the necessary adjustments.

[S5Dewey]

 

By the way, I noticed Kimbrel got a multiyear contract offer from the Cubs provided he meets the physical.

 

3 years, 45M. The season is 1/3 over so 10M this year? Or is he going to get paid for the time he missed? Yeah, I'd have been very interested in that.

[moonslav59]

3 years, 45M. The season is 1/3 over so 10M this year? Or is he going to get paid for the time he missed? Yeah, I'd have been very interested in that.

 

My guess is, it's not pro-rated, so basically, if you divide $45M by 2.3, it comes to about the QO offer per year but times 3.

 

How long will it take Kimbrel to get to close a game?

 

[moonslav59]

Not surprised that the Brock star has been a spark. He's that kind of player. His big problem lately is staying healthy.

 

The league now has a book on Chavis. Let's see if he can make the necessary adjustments.

 

Holt with 3 hits, tonight.

 

Chavis with 3 Ks (1-5).

[moonslav59]

As bad as we've been, we're just 6.5 down on the Yanks and 5 on the Rays.

 

We're in the WC game, if the season ended now.

 

[S5Dewey]

My guess is, it's not pro-rated, so basically, if you divide $45M by 2.3, it comes to about the QO offer per year but times 3.

 

How long will it take Kimbrel to get to close a game?

 

 

This doesn't look like a bad contract for Kimbrel. In exchange for holding out he got two additional years. It's not the five or six additional years he was hoping for but it's a fair contract.

 

He'll be 34 early in the first year of his next contract so his big payday years are probably over. He'll have made about $100M over 11 years of playing baseball.

[notin]

My guess is, it's not pro-rated, so basically, if you divide $45M by 2.3, it comes to about the QO offer per year but times 3.

 

How long will it take Kimbrel to get to close a game?

 

 

2.7, not 2.3.

 

That would give him an AAV of $16.7mill. Less than Wade Davis.

 

My guess is he refuses it and sees what else is out there. He’s not still unsigned due to a lack of 3yr $45mill offers. Now that the draft pick is off the table, he’s probably still looking for some sort of record-setting deal for a closer...

[Bellhorn04]

2.7, not 2.3.

 

That would give him an AAV of $16.7mill. Less than Wade Davis.

 

My guess is he refuses it and sees what else is out there. He’s not still unsigned due to a lack of 3yr $45mill offers. Now that the draft pick is off the table, he’s probably still looking for some sort of record-setting deal for a closer...

 

??? Kimbrel and the Cubs have a deal.

[notin]

??? Kimbrel and the Cubs have a deal.

 

I missed that.

 

I’m surprised he settled for that amount...

[Bellhorn04]

I missed that.

 

I’m surprised he settled for that amount...

 

Maybe that was as good as it got.

[OH FOY]

Reliever goes first over Starter. In todays game makes sense.

[notin]

Maybe that was as good as it got.

 

Apparently. But it’s also very soon after the draft.

 

I get why DD didn’t bring him back, but on that contract, I don’t agree with the decision...

[OH FOY]

I think Chavis will go back to Pawtucket, once Moreland is OK. He needs his at bats, and figure out his mistakes, up at the Majors. Once they have the book on you, they will not stop pitching you that way up in the Majors.

Gave us a shot in the arm, but now its time not to hurt his progress too much, especially when your chasing for a division.

Last 7 games .143

Last 15 .200

Last 30 .240

Going in the wrong direction. Main thing he went from a strikeout every 3 at bats, to a strikeout for every 2 at bats, in last 15 games.

Edited June 6, 2019 by OH FOY!