A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Pearce has hit lefties well throughout his career. It's a totally defensible move. He's not going to hit .133 all year.

 

I wanted to save him to PH for JBJ.

 

I like Devers in the clutch (even though clutch does not exist).

[mvp 78]

I wanted to save him to PH for JBJ.

 

I like Devers in the clutch (even though clutch does not exist).

 

Wrong.

[dgalehouse]

If " clutch " exists , the Sox did their best to disprove it last night .

[Bellhorn04]

If " clutch " exists , the Sox did their best to disprove it last night .

 

They were clutch against the Rays though. It's a funny old game...

[dgalehouse]

It is a concern that we are five games behind the Yankees , who have been decimated by injuries. Not a good sign of things to come .

[moonslav59]

I'm just a tiny bit concerned on April 24, 2019.

 

If we're still 5-10 back of the WC by the end of May, I'll be somewhat concerned.

 

It's a long season!

[mvp 78]

They were clutch against the Rays though. It's a funny old game...

 

Not sure these Sox have the clutch genome.

[oldtimer]

I'm just a tiny bit concerned on April 24, 2019.

 

If we're still 5-10 back of the WC by the end of May, I'll be somewhat concerned.

 

It's a long season!

 

True that there is time to get a run going but our weakness has shown in the offense, to some degree with starting pitching, the BP and seeming lack of fire. we are having predictable trouble at 2nd base, center field and catching. We had these same issues last year but we had a red hot Mookie. Maybe he will emerge and things will look brighter.

[moonslav59]

We had some epic runs last year. All it takes is one to get us back in it or even ahead of the pack.

 

Houston is 14-9, and the Yanks are 13-10. That, alone, keeps us in the race.

 

Last year we had these stretches of greatness:

 

17 out of 18 after our opening day loss.

 

 

15 out of 20 from mid May to early June.

 

6 out of 7 at the end of June.

 

10 in a row and and 13 of 14 to start July.

 

17 of 20 from mid July to early August.

 

6 out of 7 in mid September.

 

We could pass the Yanks and Astros with just a couple 6 of 7 runs shortly.

[Kimmi]

I would argue with your use of the word panic, more on a linguistic level than anything. I don't think a decisional flip-flop necessarily equates to panic. It certainly indicates some disorder in the process. But to me panic is a bit more extreme, it's people running out of a building that just caught fire.

 

Panic might be a bit of an extreme word, but I can't think of a better word to describe the way I see it.

[Kimmi]

I would question a couple of moves Cora made last night . Pinch hitting Pearce for Devers . Pearce has been looking absolutely lost at the plate . Leaving Lakins in . Should have used Barnes and tried to keep it a one run game . As it turned out , one run would have been enough , but you don't know that at the time .

 

Cora said today that he is not going to 'chase wins'. Barnes pitched in the 3 previous games, and Cora was not going to use him. He's sticking with his longer term season goals.

[jacksonianmarch]

We had some epic runs last year. All it takes is one to get us back in it or even ahead of the pack.

 

Houston is 14-9, and the Yanks are 13-10. That, alone, keeps us in the race.

 

Last year we had these stretches of greatness:

 

17 out of 18 after our opening day loss.

 

 

15 out of 20 from mid May to early June.

 

6 out of 7 at the end of June.

 

10 in a row and and 13 of 14 to start July.

 

17 of 20 from mid July to early August.

 

6 out of 7 in mid September.

 

We could pass the Yanks and Astros with just a couple 6 of 7 runs shortly.

 

Most teams don’t go 9-15 then go 9-1 the next ten. Those that do were pretty unlucky to get to 9-15. The Sox aren’t. This isn’t bad luck, this is abysmal baseball. The Reds have been unlucky being 4 games under .500 with a +5 run diff. The Sox are 9-15 with a -43 run differential. If anything, they’re lucky to have won 9 games. They’ve averaged losing every game played by 2 runs!

 

A victory for you at this point would be a 10 game run where you’re 6-4. Then another, then another, then maybe a 7-3 or 8-2.

[a700hitter]

Most teams don’t go 9-15 then go 9-1 the next ten. Those that do were pretty unlucky to get to 9-15. The Sox aren’t. This isn’t bad luck, this is abysmal baseball. The Reds have been unlucky being 4 games under .500 with a +5 run diff. The Sox are 9-15 with a -43 run differential. If anything, they’re lucky to have won 9 games. They’ve averaged losing every game played by 2 runs!

 

A victory for you at this point would be a 10 game run where you’re 6-4. Then another, then another, then maybe a 7-3 or 8-2.

It isn't bad luck,but it could be an anomaly?

[moonslav59]

Most teams don’t go 9-15 then go 9-1 the next ten. Those that do were pretty unlucky to get to 9-15. The Sox aren’t. This isn’t bad luck, this is abysmal baseball. The Reds have been unlucky being 4 games under .500 with a +5 run diff. The Sox are 9-15 with a -43 run differential. If anything, they’re lucky to have won 9 games. They’ve averaged losing every game played by 2 runs!

 

A victory for you at this point would be a 10 game run where you’re 6-4. Then another, then another, then maybe a 7-3 or 8-2.

 

If you want to believe we will keep playing 9-15 ball the rest of the way, go for it.

 

We will go 9-1 or something close to it at least once this year.

[mvp 78]

If you want to believe we will keep playing 9-15 ball the rest of the way, go for it.

 

We will go 9-1 or something close to it at least once this year.

 

Right now, feels like a 87 win team.

[SCM33]

Cora said today that he is not going to 'chase wins'. Barnes pitched in the 3 previous games, and Cora was not going to use him. He's sticking with his longer term season goals.

 

So his longer term term goals mean nothing. Barnes pitched tonight.

[illinoisredsox]

So his longer term term goals mean nothing. Barnes pitched tonight.

 

After 2 days off.

[moonslav59]

Right now, feels like a 87 win team.

 

At best, yes now, but this team is much better than they've shown, so far.

 

I'm thinking we end up with 96-100 wins.

[moonslav59]

.968 JD ("The Man")

.921 Chavis (Nice start!)

.900 Moreland (Typical April numbers)

.862 Bogey (Steady Bogey)

.819 Beni (On the rise)

.799 Betts (Coming out of it)

.725 Vaz (Keep this up!)

.690 Devers (Time to catch on fire)

.396 JBJ (up 29 points after last night)

.360 Nunez (Just 46 PAs)

.333 Pearce (Just 35 PAs)

.243 Pedey (21 PAs)

.273 Holt (19 PAs)

 

[jacksonianmarch]

At best, yes now, but this team is much better than they've shown, so far.

 

I'm thinking we end up with 96-100 wins.

 

You’ve got to go 86-51 to win 96. It’s possible, but I’ve seen nothing to suggest that. Also, with Eo on the shelf and everyone aside from ERod showing a lack of depth in their starts, that soft underbelly of your pen is gonna cost you.

[mvp 78]

You’ve got to go 86-51 to win 96. It’s possible, but I’ve seen nothing to suggest that. Also, with Eo on the shelf and everyone aside from ERod showing a lack of depth in their starts, that soft underbelly of your pen is gonna cost you.

 

They need to cut out the soft underbelly and bring up some fresh arms to see what sticks.

[notin]

You’ve got to go 86-51 to win 96. It’s possible, but I’ve seen nothing to suggest that. Also, with Eo on the shelf and everyone aside from ERod showing a lack of depth in their starts, that soft underbelly of your pen is gonna cost you.

 

I have a feeling this pen will look drastically different at some point...

[jacksonianmarch]

It may, but with limited financial resources below the cap, you’re gonna have trouble finding them outside the organization beyond finding detritus guys and hoping they find it. I have a feeling you’ll see Hernandez out there later in the year as I bet they shut him down once he nears his innings and he’ll be a short stint guy in Boston. I’m not sold on Lakins as of yet

[notin]

It may, but with limited financial resources below the cap, you’re gonna have trouble finding them outside the organization beyond finding detritus guys and hoping they find it. I have a feeling you’ll see Hernandez out there later in the year as I bet they shut him down once he nears his innings and he’ll be a short stint guy in Boston. I’m not sold on Lakins as of yet

 

 

If anyone was sold on Larkin’s after his 2 career IP, I wouldn’t take them very serious.

 

But there are still available options and money might not be a limiting factor. Kimbrel? Bud Norris?

[moonslav59]

You’ve got to go 86-51 to win 96. It’s possible, but I’ve seen nothing to suggest that. Also, with Eo on the shelf and everyone aside from ERod showing a lack of depth in their starts, that soft underbelly of your pen is gonna cost you.

 

We'll see.

 

You can't base assumptions on 30 games.

[dgalehouse]

Given the sorry state of the American League, the Red Sox could probably win 90 games just by showing up .

[notin]

Given the sorry state of the American League, the Red Sox could probably win 90 games just by showing up .

 

 

But when will they show up?

[vegasbob]

Given the sorry state of the American League, the Red Sox could probably win 90 games just by showing up .

 

I think that was Dombroski's, Cora's and the players game plan for 2019 as was mentioned often during the winter . Roll the bats and balls out there, dress them up like it was 2018 and win 90 by not forfeiting any.

Could still happen, but likely need to get to the 96-97 level to keep playing in October.

[Kimmi]

So his longer term term goals mean nothing. Barnes pitched tonight.

 

I was referring to Cora not using Barnes in the two games in the double header.

[moonslav59]

I think that was Dombroski's, Cora's and the players game plan for 2019 as was mentioned often during the winter . Roll the bats and balls out there, dress them up like it was 2018 and win 90 by not forfeiting any.

Could still happen, but likely need to get to the 96-97 level to keep playing in October.

 

Maybe not.

 

Let's say HOU, CLE & NYY win the divisions. That leave TB, MN & BOS fighting for 2 WC slots.

 

I doubt SEA or anyone else contends. I think 90-93 wins gets the last slot.

 

(Note: I think we win the division.)