A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[kenmeister]

They don't have to wait until mid May.

 

We could go 10-5 in our next 15.

 

We could but it doesn’t seem realistic. Moreland, Pearce, Bradley, Leon, whoever plays second base, they are all automatic outs right now.

[moonslav59]

We could but it doesn’t seem realistic. Moreland, Pearce, Bradley, Leon, whoever plays second base, they are all automatic outs right now.

 

There's no reason to think they won't start getting hot now, instead of mid May.

[SoxnCycles]

I’m guilty of this too...

 

Perhaps this year's team needs a little Joe Kelly Fight Club.

They certainly don't have much fight in then now.

[jad]

There's no reason to think they won't start getting hot now, instead of mid May.

 

Well, other than the tepid way they've played the last month.

[SoxnCycles]

Well, other than the tepid way they've played the last month.

 

I thought the sweep in Tampa was the turning point.

Nope...

[dgalehouse]

When Pedroia, Holt and Nunez come back , what moves are made ? Obviously, Lin goes down . Probably one of the pitchers goes . But what about Chavis ? Does he stay or go back down ? Will someone be dealt ? What say you ?

[notin]

When Pedroia, Holt and Nunez come back , what moves are made ? Obviously, Lin goes down . Probably one of the pitchers goes . But what about Chavis ? Does he stay or go back down ? Will someone be dealt ? What say you ?

 

 

Trades are unlikely this early, since no one has really decided if they’re buying or selling. Maybe some teams figure “selling” if they’re off to a horrible start, but those teams won’t want Nunez or Holt.

 

So, assuming everyone comes back, figure on the players with options going back to Pawtucket. This does mean Smith and Lin go back, and probably Chavis, too...

[dgalehouse]

Trades are unlikely this early, since no one has really decided if they’re buying or selling. Maybe some teams figure “selling” if they’re off to a horrible start, but those teams won’t want Nunez or Holt.

 

So, assuming everyone comes back, figure on the players with options going back to Pawtucket. This does mean Smith and Lin go back, and probably Chavis, too...

 

Yeah . I think that is the most likely scenario. It's just that Chavis seems to be providing some much needed pop to the lineup .

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah . I think that is the most likely scenario. It's just that Chavis seems to be providing some much needed pop to the lineup .

 

If he keeps hitting like this I think they will find a way not to send him down.

[dgalehouse]

If he keeps hitting like this I think they will find a way not to send him down.

 

Maybe Pedroia will need more time off . Maybe Nunez goes . But who would take Nunez' contract ? Same with Pearce . Pretty sure they want to keep Holt . Tough decision. Personally, I would like to keep Chavis , at least until he shows that he is not ready .

[kenmeister]

There's no reason to think they won't start getting hot now, instead of mid May.

 

I don't think that many slumping players can regain their skills all at once. We saw the starting rotation pitchers come back one at a time. I assume it will be the same with the hitters.

[Slasher9]

If he keeps hitting like this I think they will find a way not to send him down.

 

they may just send him down with a wink knowing he will be back up in a minute when pedroia playes 2 games and is hobbled again.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think that many slumping players can regain their skills all at once. We saw the starting rotation pitchers come back one at a time. I assume it will be the same with the hitters.

 

There is that contagious thing with hitting sometimes.

[Maxbialystock]

My thoughts right now--

 

ST is clearly the culprit and a text book on how not to prepare to defend your title.

 

Despite that, I think this team has shown they now have the rotation, bullpen, and lineup (all except JBJ and Leon) to win some games. Fielding, not so much, Baserunning, ditto.

 

Sadly, I am not the optimist Kimmi or moonslav is, but right now I don't see why they can't win more than they are.

[Slasher9]

My thoughts right now--

 

ST is clearly the culprit and a text book on how not to prepare to defend your title.

 

Despite that, I think this team has shown they now have the rotation, bullpen, and lineup (all except JBJ and Leon) to win some games. Fielding, not so much, Baserunning, ditto.

 

Sadly, I am not the optimist Kimmi or moonslav is, but right now I don't see why they can't win more than they are.

 

agreed. the poor start is Cora's fault. i'm not advocating to fire him at this point but a last place finish will look an awful lot like the JF era....

[vegasbob]

they may just send him down with a wink knowing he will be back up in a minute when pedroia playes 2 games and is hobbled again.

 

Whether it is 2 games or 22 games from Pedey, this is a likely scenario. Chavis certainly has the power but could use more experience at bat and at 2B. He is definitely part of the near future plans, like Rafael Devers was.

[moonslav59]

Well, other than the tepid way they've played the last month.

 

I'm not one to think one's recent level of play necessarily projects what happens going forward.

 

We have a very strong team- basically the same as last year, especially the offense. I don't see any reason to think we will hit this poorly going forward.

[moonslav59]

I think Chavis stays and we trade or DFA Nunez or Pedey stays on the IL.

 

Holt will stay.

[Bellhorn04]

My thoughts right now--

 

ST is clearly the culprit and a text book on how not to prepare to defend your title.

 

ST doesn't really explain the offensive woes, I don't think. Let's not use it as a handy catch-all reason for everything bad that happens this year.

 

JBJ had a great spring.

[notin]

I'm not one to think one's recent level of play necessarily projects what happens going forward.

 

We have a very strong team- basically the same as last year, especially the offense. I don't see any reason to think we will hit this poorly going forward.

 

 

That was also the logic in 2012 and 2014. Just sayin’

[moonslav59]

That was also the logic in 2012 and 2014. Just sayin’

 

...and one could argue about why I was sure we were going to win it all last year after just 21 games.

 

[Kimmi]

It's a ridiculous notion. I'm strongly tempted to bump the Pearce signing thread to remind people how positive the reaction was at the time.

 

I recall a strong positive reaction to the Pearce signing as well.

[Kimmi]

I'll say this, the discussions the front office had about the bullpen must have been interesting. I wonder if they decided from the very outset of the offseason that they weren't going to spend a nickel on it.

 

I can't imagine that they made this decision on a whim. I can't imagine they re-signed Pearce, then decided they were going to stay under the next tax limit. They almost certainly knew how much they were willing to spend this off season before they made any signings.

[Kimmi]

We lost 2-1 yesterday. We're still bitching about our bullpen?

 

The bullpen has not been the problem.

 

As somebody pointed out this off season, if the team fails to make the playoffs, it will be because the rotation or the offense or both are not getting it done.

[Kimmi]

You win as a team . You lose as a team . It's not the starting pitching . It's not the bullpen . It's not the offense . It's not the defense . It's not the manager . It's not any individual player . It's all of those things . On a winning team , the players pick each other up . That has not been happening since they got off the duck boats . This team has got to start playing better baseball . Start playing like a championship ballclub . They have shown they have the ability to do it . Need to do it soon before they dig too deep of a hole .

 

I agree with all of that.

 

I'm wondering, though, if the rotation, the offense, and the defense were all solid and the BP were blowing games, would you be saying the same thing, or would you be blaming the 'economical' pen?

[Nick]

Are we better off with or without Devers? I'd say yes. We need to add one starting position player/starting pitcher each year from the farm.

 

Recently we've had E Rod, Beni, Devers and now Chavis.

 

I'm all about succession plan.

 

I'd expect to see Chatham, Hernandez, Feltman and Dalbec in the bigs by September 2020.

[moonslav59]

Are we better off with or without Devers? I'd say yes. We need to add one starting position player/starting pitcher each year from the farm.

 

Recently we've had E Rod, Beni, Devers and now Chavis.

 

I'm all about succession plan.

 

I'd expect to see Chatham, Hernandez, Feltman and Dalbec in the bigs by September 2020.

 

You answered yes to an either or question.

 

[Nick]

You answered yes to an either or question.

 

 

Good catch.....

[Bellhorn04]

You answered yes to an either or question.

 

 

As Yogi said, when you come to the fork in the road, take it.

[Nick]

I want to stay positive. Assuming we bring back JD Martinez, we still have a two year window before Betts departs.

 

Our bullpen is holding steady.

 

Our starters as a group is pitching somewhat better. Obviously it can't get much worse.

 

Betts bat is beginning to heat up.

 

Xander is always steady.

 

JD is our best pure hitter.

 

But for me the best has been the emergence of Chavis. Getting an opportunity to play 1B yesterday tells me that he's here to stay. He can play multiple positions. He can DH when JD plays in outfield.

He can play 1B when Pearce/Moreland are struggling. Obviously he can play 2B.

 

I would guess he'll get to play 3B soon when Devers needs a rest.

 

Chatham is off to a hot start. Maybe we'll see him in September.