A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Kimmi]

Panic move? You mean like......designating Swihart in favor of fatass?

 

That was a panic move too, though I've always been in favor of keeping Leon over Swihart in the first place.

[moonslav59]

That was a panic move too, though I've always been in favor of keeping Leon over Swihart in the first place.

 

It sounded like the original Leon-Swihart choice was about as close to a coin-flip as can be, so I don't think calling up Leon after such a poor start, small sample size or not, was a panic move.

 

I admit I was surprised they didn't give Swihart a longer look, but I don't think it takes to long to evaluate defensive improvement vs stagnation.

 

I don't think the Chavis call-up was "panic" either. We need a bat. Our 3B defense is horrible, so Chavis at 3B is not really weakening our defense. Maybe the thought is to bench JBJ, put JD in the corner OF and DH Chavis or use him as a back-up at 3B, 1B and in an emergency, 2B.

[dgalehouse]

The Rays are headed for a market correction. In the end , they are a third place team . They simply don't have the talent level of the Red Sox and Yankees . Looking for a sweep this weekend to get things rolling .

[SCM33]

Then there is JBJ with over 12 % of the season gone he is hitting 138 with a 315 OPS. Would it be a panic to look for a replacement for him?

 

You are asking the wrong person. Its not a panic move to me, because he is replaceable. I have never been a JBJ fan. He is fine when the rest of the lineup is hitting, but when they aren't covering for him, you see how inept he is.

 

Finding a replacement for JBJ isnt a panic move. Its actually an upgrade

[Kimmi]

It sounded like the original Leon-Swihart choice was about as close to a coin-flip as can be, so I don't think calling up Leon after such a poor start, small sample size or not, was a panic move.

 

I admit I was surprised they didn't give Swihart a longer look, but I don't think it takes to long to evaluate defensive improvement vs stagnation.

 

I don't think the Chavis call-up was "panic" either. We need a bat. Our 3B defense is horrible, so Chavis at 3B is not really weakening our defense. Maybe the thought is to bench JBJ, put JD in the corner OF and DH Chavis or use him as a back-up at 3B, 1B and in an emergency, 2B.

 

I will retract my statement about Chavis being a panic move. Only because we have 3 injured 2B right now.

 

I stand by my opinion of how Swihart has been handled with the Red Sox.

[Station 13]

You are asking the wrong person. Its not a panic move to me, because he is replaceable. I have never been a JBJ fan. He is fine when the rest of the lineup is hitting, but when they aren't covering for him, you see how inept he is.

 

Finding a replacement for JBJ isnt a panic move. Its actually an upgrade

 

They could have replace JBJ by two options Betts and Benintendi in CF and sign a corner OF. I don't see him lasting long here with that type of numbers anymore.

[Kimmi]

They could have replace JBJ by two options Betts and Benintendi in CF and sign a corner OF. I don't see him lasting long here with that type of numbers anymore.

 

Dombrowski seems to be really high on JBJ.

 

I don't see him going anywhere.

[moonslav59]

The Rays are headed for a market correction. In the end , they are a third place team . They simply don't have the talent level of the Red Sox and Yankees . Looking for a sweep this weekend to get things rolling .

 

I feel the Rays will be in the playoff race until the end.

[moonslav59]

They could have replace JBJ by two options Betts and Benintendi in CF and sign a corner OF. I don't see him lasting long here with that type of numbers anymore.

 

...assuming he stays cold- something he does for a while but gets hot eventually.

[moonslav59]

dombrowski seems to be really high on jbj.

 

I don't see him going anywhere.

 

ty, dd!

[moonslav59]

HRam DFA'd.

 

Judge likely headed to IL.

[dgalehouse]

I feel the Rays will be in the playoff race until the end.

 

I think they have been overachieving. Look at the roster . They don't compare with the top teams .

[Bellhorn04]

I think they have been overachieving. Look at the roster . They don't compare with the top teams .

 

But they won 90 games last year. They have the lowest ERA in the majors and they seem to be very well managed. I agree with moonslav, they're a force to be reckoned with this year.

[moonslav59]

I think they have been overachieving. Look at the roster . They don't compare with the top teams .

 

They always "overachieve."

 

If they can stay healthy, they will surprise.

 

They were very good at the end of last year (28-11 in last 39), so this is no fluke. They are 42-17 in their last 59 games. That's a sample size approaching legit.

True, they will not continue at this pace, but they are contenders.

[fxkatt]

HRam DFA'd.

 

Judge likely headed to IL.

 

This is incredible--13 players gone from the Yanks. And now we lose perhaps our second best starter for a couple months. If I were Tampa Bay, I would start signing some vet help because this may be their year.

[dgalehouse]

But they won 90 games last year. They have the lowest ERA in the majors and they seem to be very well managed. I agree with moonslav, they're a force to be reckoned with this year.

 

The Sox won 108. The Yankees won 100 . The Astros won 103 . Even Oakland won 97 . All of the win totals were somewhat inflated due to the abundance of tanking trash in the American League. The Rays only hope for the post season is through the hokey gimmick known as the second wid card .

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox won 108. The Yankees won 100 . The Astros won 103 . Even Oakland won 97 . All of the win totals were somewhat inflated due to the abundance of tanking trash in the American League. The Rays only hope for the post season is through the hokey gimmick known as the second wid card .

 

What about the lowest ERA in the majors part?

[dgalehouse]

What about the lowest ERA in the majors part?

 

That certainly helps them , but not enough to compete with the top teams . Look at last year . 18 games behind Boston. 10 behind New York for the wild card . 7 behind Oakland for the second wild card . And that was a great year for them. Good start this year , but the market correction is imminent.

[dgalehouse]

They always "overachieve."

 

If they can stay healthy, they will surprise.

 

They were very good at the end of last year (28-11 in last 39), so this is no fluke. They are 42-17 in their last 59 games. That's a sample size approaching legit.

True, they will not continue at this pace, but they are contenders.

 

You are again cherry picking sample sizes to make a point . Everyone likes a nice Cinderella story . The reality is that the Rays do not have the talent or the resources to outlast the Red Sox and Yankees .

[moonslav59]

You are again cherry picking sample sizes to make a point . Everyone likes a nice Cinderella story . The reality is that the Rays do not have the talent or the resources to outlast the Red Sox and Yankees .

 

Yes, I "cherry-picked 59 games, but that's not really a small sample size.

 

How about since June 22nd?

 

70-36

 

That's 106 games.

 

What size sample do we need to go beyond the words luck, fluke and Cinderella?

 

Last 365 days:

 

100-65 Red Sox

99-65 Rays

Edited April 21, 2019 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

Yes, I "cherry-picked 59 games, but that's not really a small sample size.

 

How about since June 22nd?

 

70-36

 

That's 106 games.

 

What size sample do we need to go beyond the words luck, fluke and Cinderella?

 

Last 365 days:

 

100-65 Red Sox

99-65 Rays

 

Keep it simple. Just go by seasons . The last five years : 2018 - Finished 18 games out . 2017 - 13 games out. 2016 - 25 games out . 2015 - 13 games out . 2014 - 19 games out . This year will be more of the same . They don't have enough talent .

[Jasonbay44]

Keep it simple. Just go by seasons . The last five years : 2018 - Finished 18 games out . 2017 - 13 games out. 2016 - 25 games out . 2015 - 13 games out . 2014 - 19 games out . This year will be more of the same . They don't have enough talent .

 

This is pretty irrelevant information. Teams rosters change A LOT from year to year. Would you judge this years Red Sox team by looking at the 2014 and 2015 seasons? The Rays are a damn good team. They won't keep us this pace, but they're good.

[dgalehouse]

This is pretty irrelevant information. Teams rosters change A LOT from year to year. Would you judge this years Red Sox team by looking at the 2014 and 2015 seasons? The Rays are a damn good team. They won't keep us this pace, but they're good.

 

My point is that they are not good enough to beat the Sox and Yanks . They are destined to finish third in the A.L. East . They have overachieved so far this season . The talent level is not good enough to sustain it . It is a long season . The market correction is already underway . They now have a three game losing streak . Tomorrow will make it four .

[moonslav59]

Keep it simple. Just go by seasons . The last five years : 2018 - Finished 18 games out . 2017 - 13 games out. 2016 - 25 games out . 2015 - 13 games out . 2014 - 19 games out . This year will be more of the same . They don't have enough talent .

 

I thought the last 365 days is pretty simple.

 

Look, I agree that on paper, they look worse than the Sox and Yanks, but they have player pretty damn well for a full year.

 

It's no fluke. These guys are very good.

 

The Yanks are dropping like flies and have a minor league team for half their current roster.

 

The Sox have had some recent injuries that could be troubling.

 

My point was that if they stay healthy they will stay competitive to the end.

 

I'm not projecting a Rays ring.

 

I still am fully on board with us winning it all...again.

 

[harmony]

I still am fully on board with us winning it all...again.

FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox a 5 percent chance of winning the World Series:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

... while FanGraphs gives the Sox a 5.1 percent chance of winning the World Series:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[cp176]

Panic? We are down 3 infielders with injuries. If one of our infielders twists something who goes into replace them. They had to bring him up. There was no choice. He will go down next week when Pedey or Holt come back.

 

It hasn't been mentioned this morning so it makes me wonder if anyone saw the ball come off Chavis's bat last night? he very well might have a big league bat. I realize of course (I guess) that he isn't likely to just hop in there at second base but a lineup that features Lin, Leon or Vazquez, and JBJ at the back end doesn't really seem to amount to much. I kind of hope he gets a chance.

[oldtimer]

It hasn't been mentioned this morning so it makes me wonder if anyone saw the ball come off Chavis's bat last night? he very well might have a big league bat. I realize of course (I guess) that he isn't likely to just hop in there at second base but a lineup that features Lin, Leon or Vazquez, and JBJ at the back end doesn't really seem to amount to much. I kind of hope he gets a chance.

 

Our furnace failed yesterday and it won't get fixed until the parts come in, maybe Wednesday. Lat night got to 37 so I went to bed early, with the Sox ahead 5 to 4 after the Sox squandering a chance in the 8th for more runs. I saw the lineup of Bradley, Lin and Leon for the 9th and assumed we mght blow it. Nice to see Bradley actually got a hit and Chavis was used and came through. The Sox should find a way to strengthen the bottom of the order and why not give him a chance?

[cp176]

Our furnace failed yesterday and it won't get fixed until the parts come in, maybe Wednesday. Lat night got to 37 so I went to bed early, with the Sox ahead 5 to 4 after the Sox squandering a chance in the 8th for more runs. I saw the lineup of Bradley, Lin and Leon for the 9th and assumed we mght blow it. Nice to see Bradley actually got a hit and Chavis was used and came through. The Sox should find a way to strengthen the bottom of the order and why not give him a chance?

 

Oh boy - 37* in the house? Not comfortable. Good luck!

 

I always just kind of laugh at the comments saying that any move that the front office might make is a "panic move". Scary words have a bigger effect I guess. I like to look at it as you see a need and you try to fill that need. Chavis might actually help us and I don't think that there is any way at all that bringing him up now could concievably hurt his future. He has already been through enough stuff to cause a person to quit. I understand also that he is likely to get sent back down but if his bat is major league ready, I think that you find a way to get it into the lineup.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Mitchy 2 bags misses time, you’ll need Chavis.

[notin]

Our furnace failed yesterday and it won't get fixed until the parts come in, maybe Wednesday. Lat night got to 37 so I went to bed early, with the Sox ahead 5 to 4 after the Sox squandering a chance in the 8th for more runs. I saw the lineup of Bradley, Lin and Leon for the 9th and assumed we mght blow it. Nice to see Bradley actually got a hit and Chavis was used and came through. The Sox should find a way to strengthen the bottom of the order and why not give him a chance?

 

 

Yeah 37 degrees just doesn’t work in Fahrenheit or Celsius...