A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[cp176]

I know its Spring Training, but right now my confidence level in the bullpen is a 3 out of 10. No way Barnes has the makeup to be a closer. Thornburg throws a straight, hittable ball. Braizer is hurt. I hope Dave figures it out.

 

Don't forget - We have all been taught - spring training means absolutely nothing.

[jacksonianmarch]

As much as I’d like to pile on here, I agree with cp. ST means really nothing. The only thing I actually look at is the stuff of pitchers starting about two weeks prior to opening day. I don’t look at the hitters at all.

 

The beginning of ST for veteran players is meant for them to get ready, avoid injury and test situations. I was watching a Sox ST game the other week and Holt was on talking about what to work on. He said for two or three games he was working on hitting with two strikes. So he took to get to two strikes in every at bat. That’s not an adequate way to gauge a player if he’s taking intentionally to get to two strikes.

 

Pitchers early in spring may choose a pitch to work on. So they’ll throw only fastballs and let’s say changeups so they can work on a pitch. If the changeup is the fourth pitch, then they’re depriving themselves of their two best out pitches. Wait one more week, then see who is starting to put it all together. And I’d take nothing away from the offense. ST is for pitchers, the hitters don’t need this long

[Kimmi]

As much as I’d like to pile on here, I agree with cp. ST means really nothing. The only thing I actually look at is the stuff of pitchers starting about two weeks prior to opening day. I don’t look at the hitters at all.

 

The beginning of ST for veteran players is meant for them to get ready, avoid injury and test situations. I was watching a Sox ST game the other week and Holt was on talking about what to work on. He said for two or three games he was working on hitting with two strikes. So he took to get to two strikes in every at bat. That’s not an adequate way to gauge a player if he’s taking intentionally to get to two strikes.

 

Pitchers early in spring may choose a pitch to work on. So they’ll throw only fastballs and let’s say changeups so they can work on a pitch. If the changeup is the fourth pitch, then they’re depriving themselves of their two best out pitches. Wait one more week, then see who is starting to put it all together. And I’d take nothing away from the offense. ST is for pitchers, the hitters don’t need this long

 

Good post Jacko.

[cp176]

As much as I’d like to pile on here, I agree with cp. ST means really nothing. The only thing I actually look at is the stuff of pitchers starting about two weeks prior to opening day. I don’t look at the hitters at all.

 

The beginning of ST for veteran players is meant for them to get ready, avoid injury and test situations. I was watching a Sox ST game the other week and Holt was on talking about what to work on. He said for two or three games he was working on hitting with two strikes. So he took to get to two strikes in every at bat. That’s not an adequate way to gauge a player if he’s taking intentionally to get to two strikes.

 

Pitchers early in spring may choose a pitch to work on. So they’ll throw only fastballs and let’s say changeups so they can work on a pitch. If the changeup is the fourth pitch, then they’re depriving themselves of their two best out pitches. Wait one more week, then see who is starting to put it all together. And I’d take nothing away from the offense. ST is for pitchers, the hitters don’t need this long

 

sarcasm - Spring training likely has a great deal of meaning for young players trying to make an impression. Every now and then you actually get a couple of veterans trying to solidify their role on a team. Obviously the primary purpose is to get everybody out there to get their work in and hopefully have everyone ready to go when the gun goes off but to simply say that it means nothing is silly. If it meant nothing, it is likely that they wouldn't have it.

[notin]

sarcasm - Spring training likely has a great deal of meaning for young players trying to make an impression. Every now and then you actually get a couple of veterans trying to solidify their role on a team. Obviously the primary purpose is to get everybody out there to get their work in and hopefully have everyone ready to go when the gun goes off but to simply say that it means nothing is silly. If it meant nothing, it is likely that they wouldn't have it.

 

 

 

Well they do sell tickets and televise games, granted the money is less.

 

As for “meaning nothing,” it doesn’t with regards to the upcoming season. If you come in last in the Grapefruit League, it doesn’t mean you’re coming in last in the regular season...

[Bellhorn04]

Well they do sell tickets and televise games, granted the money is less.

 

As for “meaning nothing,” it doesn’t with regards to the upcoming season. If you come in last in the Grapefruit League, it doesn’t mean you’re coming in last in the regular season...

 

It's not meaningless as far as all the players are concerned.

 

It's meaningless as far as the W-L record is concerned.

[notin]

It's not meaningless as far as all the players are concerned.

 

It's meaningless as far as the W-L record is concerned.

 

...Which has been the context of the conversation...

[Bellhorn04]

...Which has been the context of the conversation...

 

I just re-read the series of posts and it seems to me it's pretty easy to have some confusion about the whole 'meaning' thing.

[Tedballgame]

It doesn't matter if its spring training or not: Workman sucks. Velasquez is average at best. Barnes is not a 9th inning guy. Poyner is AAA 1/2. Thornburg is nowhere near back to what he was for Milwaukee. Carson Smith is hurt and won't contribute for some time, if then. Wright is out 80 games. Braizer is hurt. Brewer is not the answer. Dave has got to pull a rabbit out of his hat to salvage this bullpen and make it respectable.

[Larry Cook]

I watched Pedroia and I think we should start him on the 60 day dL and give him another two months of rehab. Work him back slowly and hopefully get a productive player for August through November.

 

He just does not look right either at bat or in the field at the moment, I know some of it is rust, but I think more of it is the knee or lack of trust in the knee.

[mvp 78]

I watched Pedroia and I think we should start him on the 60 day dL and give him another two months of rehab. Work him back slowly and hopefully get a productive player for August through November.

 

He just does not look right either at bat or in the field at the moment, I know some of it is rust, but I think more of it is the knee or lack of trust in the knee.

 

This just proves to me that he's winning the MVP this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

When you’re that small, a little twinge or mobility reduction is magnified. Pedroia will never be back to how he felt before hurting the knee. He’s not going to play 120 games, and he’s probably going to have minus range for the first time in his career. If he can give you 90 games of good offensive production and make up for lack of range with his usual steady glovework, then he’ll be an asset. That’s about all the Sox can hope for right now

[moonslav59]

When you’re that small, a little twinge or mobility reduction is magnified. Pedroia will never be back to how he felt before hurting the knee. He’s not going to play 120 games, and he’s probably going to have minus range for the first time in his career. If he can give you 90 games of good offensive production and make up for lack of range with his usual steady glovework, then he’ll be an asset. That’s about all the Sox can hope for right now

 

I have serious doubts about Pedey, especially on defense. The way he plays all out, I'm not sure he can dial it back. He will likely try to dive for a ball and tweak his knee again.

 

90 games would be great, assuming he can hit near .790.

 

[S5Dewey]

I watched Pedroia and I think we should start him on the 60 day dL and give him another two months of rehab. Work him back slowly and hopefully get a productive player for August through November.

 

He just does not look right either at bat or in the field at the moment, I know some of it is rust, but I think more of it is the knee or lack of trust in the knee.

 

I saw it differently. His first swing of the bat was HUGE - he was trying to "make a statement". That swing also missed the ball though. :-)

After that I thought he was vintage Pedey offensively. He simply reached out and put the ball where he wanted to for a hit. The kind of stuff he does all the time. I thought he looked good running the bases, getting to 2B on a FC (IIRC) and then scoring from second.

 

Defensively he made a nifty turn at 2B in the middle of a DP and fielded his position well. I can't comment on his range because I don't have a benchmark from 2017 to compare to but on the whole I liked what I saw. Even running off and on the field he looked like the Pedey of old with no sign of discomfort. He may or may not have been having the benefit of Aleve or the like... I have no way of knowing that.

 

My biggest concern with Pedroia at the moment is his longevity - how long will that knee hold up? Only time will tell, but thanks, Manny. Thanks for going to the NL where you can put players on some other team on the DL for a while. You *******.

[moonslav59]

Maldonado signs with Royals, so there's one team not in on a Swihart or Leon trade.

[Kimmi]

Dustin Pedroia - 2019 Comeback Player of the Year

[harmony]

The Red Sox may face a defensively porous team in their season-opening series at Seattle if the Mariners have center fielder Mallex Smith and third baseman Kyle Seager on the disabled list.

 

Instead of having Smith patrolling the expansive center field, the Mariners would likely go with a defensively suspect outfield of RF Jay Bruce, CF Mitch Haniger and LF Domingo Santana.

 

The Mariners could relieve the logjam at 1B/DH by moving Ryon Healy to third base, where Healy has a UZR/150 of a negative 13.9 with a negative 4 Defensive Runs Saved in 900.2 innings. As a point of reference, Rafael Devers has a UZR/150 of a negative 7.2 with a negative 14 Defensive Runs Saved in 1,524.1 innings at third base.

[Nick]

Let's look at Yankees payroll for a minute. I think we've discussed Sox payroll at nauseam.

 

Cot's has the Yankees at $225M right now, $19M over the initial threashhold. This amount will be taxed at 20%.

 

Didi Gregorius is making $11.75M this year and will become a FA.

 

CC Sabathia has announce his retirement at the conclusion of current season. He is set to make $8M.

 

Brett Gardner is on a one year deal at $7.5M. I guess the hope is to let him go and replace him with last year contract of Jacoby, who is set to make $21.143M in 2020.

 

That's total savings of $27.25M, bringing down the CB Payroll to about $198M. Luxury tax will be $208M for 2020.

 

They will need to replace Gregorius. They will lose a starter in Sabathia. I'm not sure if you can count on Ellsbury.

 

James Paxton will be in his final year of arbitration. He's currently making $8.575M.

 

Both Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez will be 1st year arb players in 2020. Judge could break Betts record $20M in 2021.

 

Signing a big ticketed FA in 2020 may become problematic with some of their younger players becoming arb eligible in 2020 and beyond.

 

They are in better shape than Sox but they're just couple of years behind what we're gong through. If we have a 'cliff', they they'll have theirs two to three years later.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's look at Yankees payroll for a minute. I think we've discussed Sox payroll at nauseam.

 

Cot's has the Yankees at $225M right now, $19M over the initial threashhold. This amount will be taxed at 20%.

 

Didi Gregorius is making $11.75M this year and will become a FA.

 

CC Sabathia has announce his retirement at the conclusion of current season. He is set to make $8M.

 

Brett Gardner is on a one year deal at $7.5M. I guess the hope is to let him go and replace him with last year contract of Jacoby, who is set to make $21.143M in 2020.

 

That's total savings of $27.25M, bringing down the CB Payroll to about $198M. Luxury tax will be $208M for 2020.

 

They will need to replace Gregorius. They will lose a starter in Sabathia. I'm not sure if you can count on Ellsbury.

 

James Paxton will be in his final year of arbitration. He's currently making $8.575M.

 

Both Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez will be 1st year arb players in 2020. Judge could break Betts record $20M in 2021.

 

Signing a big ticketed FA in 2020 may become problematic with some of their younger players becoming arb eligible in 2020 and beyond.

 

They are in better shape than Sox but they're just couple of years behind what we're gong through. If we have a 'cliff', they they'll have theirs two to three years later.

 

I suspect they will sign an extension with Gregorius.

[notin]

I suspect they will sign an extension with Gregorius.

 

 

Or just roll with Torres at shortstop and LeMahieu at second...

[jacksonianmarch]

Let's look at Yankees payroll for a minute. I think we've discussed Sox payroll at nauseam.

 

Cot's has the Yankees at $225M right now, $19M over the initial threashhold. This amount will be taxed at 20%.

 

Didi Gregorius is making $11.75M this year and will become a FA.

 

CC Sabathia has announce his retirement at the conclusion of current season. He is set to make $8M.

 

Brett Gardner is on a one year deal at $7.5M. I guess the hope is to let him go and replace him with last year contract of Jacoby, who is set to make $21.143M in 2020.

 

That's total savings of $27.25M, bringing down the CB Payroll to about $198M. Luxury tax will be $208M for 2020.

 

They will need to replace Gregorius. They will lose a starter in Sabathia. I'm not sure if you can count on Ellsbury.

 

James Paxton will be in his final year of arbitration. He's currently making $8.575M.

 

Both Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez will be 1st year arb players in 2020. Judge could break Betts record $20M in 2021.

 

Signing a big ticketed FA in 2020 may become problematic with some of their younger players becoming arb eligible in 2020 and beyond.

 

They are in better shape than Sox but they're just couple of years behind what we're gong through. If we have a 'cliff', they they'll have theirs two to three years later.

 

We have a little while until our cliff, but there is one big difference between us and Boston, and that's the long term deals for diminishing returns. Price (while a WS hero a year ago) and Pedroia are being paid for past work and are not expected to live up to their contracts going forward. The only long term deal on the Yanks docket is Stanton, and with the way its structured and the money kicked in from Miami, its only $22 mil on the lux tax. He is a bargain at $22 mil. Price at $31 mil and Pedroia at $14 mil are not. The other beneficial thing for the Yanks is two contracts come off the books as Judge and the kids get expensive. Tanaka and Ellsbury, together making almost what Price and Pedroia make yearly, will be off the books come 2021. While Tanaka is still a valuable member of the squad, if he returns I would have to think his performance warrants a much lower pay day. The other thing that the Yanks have in their corner is the CBA. By the time Judge and Sanchez are getting paid big money (2nd year arb) the CBA will be up. The entire lux tax system could be different by then.

 

In terms of 2020, you forgot two other contracts. Chapman can opt out and Betances will be a FA. That's another $24 mil off the books and with the pen depth added, we may be able to survive with a strong pen if they head off into the sunset. Chapman's case is an intriguing one as I doubt he sees a better AAV than the $17.2 mil he would earn in 2020 and 2021, but he may opt out to guarantee a higher amount of money over more years. Maybe he gets a 3 yr $45 mil deal by opting out, taking an AAV hit but guaranteeing another $11 mil over 1 season going forward.

[jacksonianmarch]

Or just roll with Torres at shortstop and LeMahieu at second...

 

That is the thing. Gregorius is a damn good SS, but his park adjusted hitting shows he does a lot of his damage in the Bronx. Teams are wary of that now. He is more valuable to the Yankees than to any other team as he uses that RF short porch better than anyone. Plus, Torres has the stuff to be a good defender, although he was sloppy last year. Lemahieu is a gold glove caliber 2b. If Didi gets too expensive, we have a built in backup plan that doesn't cost us anything else. Add in the fact that we have a fair amount of middle infield prospects with promise and we may be better off without committing substantial capital to a SS who's first year of his new contract is his age 30 season and would likely run through his age 36 or 37 season

[BillyWilliams]

That is the thing. Gregorius is a damn good SS, but his park adjusted hitting shows he does a lot of his damage in the Bronx. Teams are wary of that now. He is more valuable to the Yankees than to any other team as he uses that RF short porch better than anyone. Plus, Torres has the stuff to be a good defender, although he was sloppy last year. Lemahieu is a gold glove caliber 2b. If Didi gets too expensive, we have a built in backup plan that doesn't cost us anything else. Add in the fact that we have a fair amount of middle infield prospects with promise and we may be better off without committing substantial capital to a SS who's first year of his new contract is his age 30 season and would likely run through his age 36 or 37 season

 

So you think Didi would get a 6-7 yr deal?

[moonslav59]

First, he has to prove he's overcome the injury.

[Slasher9]

First, he has to prove he's overcome the injury.

 

FAKE NEWS,

yankees players dont get injured.....

[BillyWilliams]

First, he has to prove he's overcome the injury.

 

Of course, but I believe position players have a much easier time recovering from TJS than pitchers do.

[moonslav59]

Of course, but I believe position players have a much easier time recovering from TJS than pitchers do.

Shortstops need a strong arm.

[BillyWilliams]

Shortstops need a strong arm.

 

They certainly do.

 

Are you saying it's the same recovery for a SS as it is for a pitcher?

[notin]

FAKE NEWS,

yankees players dont get injured.....

 

 

Sure they do. In fact it’s the only reason the Yankees ever lose.

 

But the good news is, they recover and are typically about 120-140% of what they were before...

[moonslav59]

They certainly do.

 

Are you saying it's the same recovery for a SS as it is for a pitcher?

 

No, but what is the history of SS's recovering from TJS?