A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

Leclerc took a guaranteed humongous payday while leaving bigger paydays on the table in the event of injury. He was smart. He was still pre arb and has not made any money yet

[Nick]

That list is not complete, though.

 

2013: Shane Victorino 6.1 WAR

 

Yeah but we paid him $39M for THAT. lol

[Nick]

According to my calculation, we can start bringing up first year players on April 11th and not get their full year service time. 6 years and 171 days of team control. Perfect.

 

We may see Feltman and Hernandez earlier than many expect.

[Station 13]

According to my calculation, we can start bringing up first year players on April 11th and not get their full year service time. 6 years and 171 days of team control. Perfect.

 

We may see Feltman and Hernandez earlier than many expect.

 

I think Feltman will not be ready until July at the earliest. He hasn't play over A ball. What level are they starting him this year?

[mvp 78]

I think Feltman will not be ready until July at the earliest. He hasn't play over A ball. What level are they starting him this year?

 

Portland most likely.

[Nick]

I think Feltman will not be ready until July at the earliest. He hasn't play over A ball. What level are they starting him this year?

 

Some thought he may pitch in the major last year.....yeah, pretty optimistic.

 

Line on him is that Sox shouldn't waste any more pitches than you have to in the minors. He is what he is, what he will ever be.

[mvp 78]

Some thought he may pitch in the major last year.....yeah, pretty optimistic.

 

Line on him is that Sox shouldn't waste any more pitches than you have to in the minors. He is what he is, what he will ever be.

 

Which is why they thought he could be in MLB last year.

[Kimmi]

LOL.

 

I'm happy with the Yankee rotation, too.

 

Sevy may be facing TJS at some point.

 

Tanaka hes been living on borrowed time.

 

Paxton has never pitched a full season with plenty of IP'd.

 

CC has heart issues and more. Plus he turns 82 this year.

 

Happ has done very well as he moves through his prime years, but it's time for decline.

 

 

I have always felt like the Yankees area of weakness is their rotation.

 

If Severino is out for any significant time, the Yanks could be in trouble.

[moonslav59]

Some thought he may pitch in the major last year.....yeah, pretty optimistic.

 

Line on him is that Sox shouldn't waste any more pitches than you have to in the minors. He is what he is, what he will ever be.

 

Here's some interesting numbers on Lin:

 

vs RHPs

.797 career in MLB (115 PAs)

(.401 vs LHPs in 24 PAs)

 

AAA

.805 vs RHPs (209) in 2018

 

[oldtimer]

Some thought he may pitch in the major last year.....yeah, pretty optimistic.

 

Line on him is that Sox shouldn't waste any more pitches than you have to in the minors. He is what he is, what he will ever be.

 

Didn't he have a college background? In that case, he is not kid and he does have good stuff. One would expect his route to the majors could be accelerated because of the experience factor. He should get to AAA to see what he can do.

[mvp 78]

Didn't he have a college background? In that case, he is not kid and he does have good stuff. One would expect his route to the majors could be accelerated because of the experience factor. He should get to AAA to see what he can do.

 

2 seasons at TCU.

[jacksonianmarch]

Some thought he may pitch in the major last year.....yeah, pretty optimistic.

 

Line on him is that Sox shouldn't waste any more pitches than you have to in the minors. He is what he is, what he will ever be.

 

The same was said about Craig Hansen and we know how that turned out. There is more than just stuff to be learned in the minors. Progressing through is not to be taken lightly

[mvp 78]

The same was said about Craig Hansen and we know how that turned out. There is more than just stuff to be learned in the minors. Progressing through is not to be taken lightly

 

Because it didn't work once, it can never work. Interesting that you aren't mentioning young arms that succeeded like Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street, Aroldis Chapman, or Kenley Jensen.

[notin]

Because it didn't work once, it can never work. Interesting that you aren't mentioning young arms that succeeded like Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street, Aroldis Chapman, or Kenley Jensen.

 

Chad Cordero, Chris Sale...

[jacksonianmarch]

KRod spent full seasons in A and A+ ball and spent time in both AA and AAA before he made a late season debut for the Angels in 2002.

 

Aroldis Chapman was already pitching in the Cuban league and starring there, which is considered the equivalent of AAA here.

 

Street is the better comp, although he did see time in AA the year he was drafted and debuted out of the gate the following season.

 

Jansen was a converted hitter who was nearing the end of his team control. The Dodgers threw him out there and he dominated.

 

I’m not saying Feltman won’t be good. But for a team expected to contend for a title, he’s not a great bet to skip over the upper levels and succeed out of the gate

[mvp 78]

Chad Cordero, Chris Sale...

 

Cordero is Exhibit A for why holding a player in the minors just for seasoning is wasting bullets. He was really good until his arm fell off. Feltman seems to have a limited time table too.

 

Maybe the Cubs should have kept Mark Prior in the minors longer for seasoning? That way he could have blown out his arm with much less service time!

[mvp 78]

KRod spent full seasons in A and A+ ball and spent time in both AA and AAA before he made a late season debut for the Angels in 2002.

 

Aroldis Chapman was already pitching in the Cuban league and starring there, which is considered the equivalent of AAA here.

 

Street is the better comp, although he did see time in AA the year he was drafted and debuted out of the gate the following season.

 

Jansen was a converted hitter who was nearing the end of his team control. The Dodgers threw him out there and he dominated.

 

I’m not saying Feltman won’t be good. But for a team expected to contend for a title, he’s not a great bet to skip over the upper levels and succeed out of the gate

 

He debuted at 20. Instead of getting seasoning in the lower minors, Feltman pitched in college.

 

I don't think Feltman will be in Boston in April, but I wouldn't be shocked by a mid to late season call up.

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s what I’m saying. I’m not knocking the kid. Just that he’ll need more seasoning. That could come in april and May in AA, June and July in AAA and he’s in Boston by August. Just that there’s no way he’s coming to Boston from Florida

[moonslav59]

That’s what I’m saying. I’m not knocking the kid. Just that he’ll need more seasoning. That could come in april and May in AA, June and July in AAA and he’s in Boston by August. Just that there’s no way he’s coming to Boston from Florida

 

Yes, it's very rare when someone jumps that quickly.

 

We may not even see him in September.

[mvp 78]

Yes, it's very rare when someone jumps that quickly.

 

We may not even see him in September.

 

And it's rare that they jump so quickly just to fall on their face.

[Nick]

He debuted at 20. Instead of getting seasoning in the lower minors, Feltman pitched in college.

 

I don't think Feltman will be in Boston in April, but I wouldn't be shocked by a mid to late season call up.

 

If you have the 'stuff' and can throw strikes, no need to wait. Especially when the parent club is in need of bullpen help.

 

He's a college kid. He's not a high school grad. What is his ceiling and how close to it is he?

[moonslav59]

And it's rare that they jump so quickly just to fall on their face.

 

True, because if you get called up that quickly, you have already shown your stuff is ML ready.

 

Some do not do well, but you are right. It is rare.

 

I trust DD & company to know when the right time is.

[notin]

And it's rare that they jump so quickly just to fall on their face.

 

 

It does happen. Joey Devine being one example...

[moonslav59]

It's hard for any fan, even one who watches every game played in the minors to determine when a prospect is ML ready or not.

 

Even hindsight judgement may be flawed.

 

That being said, which of these prospects are currently Major League Ready or may be by August or September?

 

Here's my opinion:

 

ML Ready now

1 Chavis

11 Shawaryn

15 Lakins (if he's good enough)

22 Lin

23 Travis

27 Poyner

28 Brewer

29 JTaylor

56 Shepherd

** M Walden

** G Hernandez

 

Maybe ML Ready by August/September

4. D Hernandez

5. Dalbec

9. Chatham

10. Feltman

24 DReyes

[oldtimer]

It's hard for any fan, even one who watches every game played in the minors to determine when a prospect is ML ready or not.

 

Even hindsight judgement may be flawed.

 

That being said, which of these prospects are currently Major League Ready or may be by August or September?

 

Here's my opinion:

 

ML Ready now

1 Chavis

11 Shawaryn

15 Lakins (if he's good enough)

22 Lin

23 Travis

27 Poyner

28 Brewer

29 JTaylor

56 Shepherd

** M Walden

** G Hernandez

 

Maybe ML Ready by August/September

4. D Hernandez

5. Dalbec

9. Chatham

10. Feltman

24 DReyes

 

I would tend to think it will depend on the health of our regulars. Having Nunez and Holt in backup roles for 2nd, 3rd and SS doesn't work too well if Pedey can't play a significant number of games or if Devers or Bogaerts is on the injured list for 15 or more days. In that case probably Lin comes up with either Chavis or Chatham as possibilities. Dalbec is not out of the question depending how the minor league results stack up. Lin can even play OF if a need develops there.

 

As far as pitching, if we have a starter injured then D. Hernandez will get the call. I haven't seen enough to sort out the BP possibilities. Feltman is intriguing. Poyner has looked good at times. It kind of a wait and see.

[moonslav59]

I would tend to think it will depend on the health of our regulars. Having Nunez and Holt in backup roles for 2nd, 3rd and SS doesn't work too well if Pedey can't play a significant number of games or if Devers or Bogaerts is on the injured list for 15 or more days. In that case probably Lin comes up with either Chavis or Chatham as possibilities. Dalbec is not out of the question depending how the minor league results stack up. Lin can even play OF if a need develops there.

 

As far as pitching, if we have a starter injured then D. Hernandez will get the call. I haven't seen enough to sort out the BP possibilities. Feltman is intriguing. Poyner has looked good at times. It kind of a wait and see.

 

I think Holt & Nunez are enough, if Pedey goes down, but last year, we got Kinsler, so maybe not. How healthy Nunez is is important.

 

I think, if a starter goes down, we call Velazquez up, but D Hernandez is an option. (I think Johnson is our 6th starter, who will start in the pen.)

[notin]

I would tend to think it will depend on the health of our regulars. Having Nunez and Holt in backup roles for 2nd, 3rd and SS doesn't work too well if Pedey can't play a significant number of games or if Devers or Bogaerts is on the injured list for 15 or more days. In that case probably Lin comes up with either Chavis or Chatham as possibilities. Dalbec is not out of the question depending how the minor league results stack up. Lin can even play OF if a need develops there.

 

As far as pitching, if we have a starter injured then D. Hernandez will get the call. I haven't seen enough to sort out the BP possibilities. Feltman is intriguing. Poyner has looked good at times. It kind of a wait and see.

 

 

I get being excited about the rookies, but they’re probably not the top options in most cases. But since the Sox will go through 20-25 or so pitchers this year, Hernandez will get the call. Just maybe not the first call.

 

I don’t think Dalbec is as high as many think. And frankly, I hope they move him for a young player that better fits their needs.

 

Chatham isn’t close and I bet doesn’t make his debut this year...

[jacksonianmarch]

Having stuff and throwing strikes does not always a great pitcher make. Guys, take a look at the season from Domingo German last year as an example. 3.5 BB/9IP, 10+K/9IP and a 95 mph average fastball with two plus movement secondary pitches, yet he had a mid 5’s ERA. Why is that? Because while he could limit the walks, his command in the zone left something to be desired. 15 years ago, if you could sit 95+ and top out around 100 like German and Feltman can do, you were pretty hard to hit. Now, everyone throws like that and hitters can hit it. You now must command those fastballs and those nasty sliders. You must set the batter up. You need to know your sequencing and have the confidence to know which pitches work so you can shake the catcher off. Command in the zone takes some time. I’m not saying German is junk, actually I think he’ll be a very good pitcher shortly, but that learning experience will be valuable for him. Experiencing some failure and focusing on honing the craft is a very important part of a professional athletes ability to succeed. Feltman hasn’t had that yet. Maybe he won’t need it. Maybe he just dominates all the way through. But most players, even the greats, had to learn the lesson of failure and make it their greatest teacher. Better to have that happen in AAA than blowing games in the bigs

[Larry Cook]

Having stuff and throwing strikes does not always a great pitcher make. Guys, take a look at the season from Domingo German last year as an example. 3.5 BB/9IP, 10+K/9IP and a 95 mph average fastball with two plus movement secondary pitches, yet he had a mid 5’s ERA. Why is that? Because while he could limit the walks, his command in the zone left something to be desired. 15 years ago, if you could sit 95+ and top out around 100 like German and Feltman can do, you were pretty hard to hit. Now, everyone throws like that and hitters can hit it. You now must command those fastballs and those nasty sliders. You must set the batter up. You need to know your sequencing and have the confidence to know which pitches work so you can shake the catcher off. Command in the zone takes some time. I’m not saying German is junk, actually I think he’ll be a very good pitcher shortly, but that learning experience will be valuable for him. Experiencing some failure and focusing on honing the craft is a very important part of a professional athletes ability to succeed. Feltman hasn’t had that yet. Maybe he won’t need it. Maybe he just dominates all the way through. But most players, even the greats, had to learn the lesson of failure and make it their greatest teacher. Better to have that happen in AAA than blowing games in the bigs

 

Or when German misses, he is missing on the white part of the plate and even at 100 mph, hitters rarely miss those. (Aka meatballs)

[Tedballgame]

I know its Spring Training, but right now my confidence level in the bullpen is a 3 out of 10. No way Barnes has the makeup to be a closer. Thornburg throws a straight, hittable ball. Braizer is hurt. I hope Dave figures it out.