A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

I review medical studies as part of my personal education. This is one of the worst study synopses I’ve ever read.

 

Consider this. The success is touted to be over 80%. So that means that under 20% don’t recover well. Hence, if you’re using the three years pre and post surgery yet you have a 20% cohort that doesn’t recover, you’ve already skewed your data. You need to remove the cohort that doesn’t respond and see if successful surgery leads to any changes in performance. This is a bad, bad study

[FredLynn]

I review medical studies as part of my personal education. This is one of the worst study synopses I’ve ever read.

 

Consider this. The success is touted to be over 80%. So that means that under 20% don’t recover well. Hence, if you’re using the three years pre and post surgery yet you have a 20% cohort that doesn’t recover, you’ve already skewed your data. You need to remove the cohort that doesn’t respond and see if successful surgery leads to any changes in performance. This is a bad, bad study

 

How do you define success? Return to the rotation? Performing as well or better than before TJS?

The data from various studies is conflicting. Here is another one that purports to be "the largest analysis of MLB pitchers who have undergone TJS". The conclusion was that:

 

"There is a significant proportion of players (18%) who do not resume major league career. For those that return, a high proportion return to the disabled list, both for arm conditions (in general) and specifically for elbow pain (47% and 23%, respectively). Moreover, many performance statistics showed a decline following surgery, most notably in ERA, WHIP, opposing batting average, innings pitched, percentage of fastballs thrown and fastball velocity."

 

Here is the link: http://www.abstractsonline.com/plan/ViewAbstract.aspx?mID=3358&sKey=493a4472-e6c5-4acf-8c39-7588796fd6a5&cKey=543b49e3-0bf2-4bfe-a036-e3c30c12e41c&mKey=4393d428-d755-4a34-8a63-26b1b7a349a1

[moonslav59]

Red Sox projected at 4th best defensive team in MLB.

 

The best projected team defenses of 2019

WWW.MLB.COM

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The Royals have made it perfectly clear that they plan to attack the 2019 season behind speed and defense, because they've said exactly as much. "How are you going to win in our ballpark without speed and defense?" general manager Dayton Moore asked rhetorically in February. Earlier in the month,

 

4) Red Sox (+21)

 

Betts is obvious, right? We don't need to explain how good Betts is? The same should go for center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., who won his first American League Gold Glove Award and had the metrics back it up; both Betts and Bradley rated in the top 8 outfielders per Statcast last year. Left fielder Andrew Benintendi was an AL Gold Glove Award finalist, and they've stated their goal is for Boston to sweep the voting in 2019. Dustin Pedroia, if healthy, should be capable enough at second, though the real question here is whether young third baseman Rafael Devers can improve upon his relatively unimpressive fielding showing so far.

 

The Yanks were not in the top 10, but they were listed among the 3 "others."

[BillyWilliams]

I already answered, "No," but I'm really not sure about how easy it is for SSs to get back to near 90-100%.

 

Are you?

 

I must have missed the part where anyone said it would be "easy".........

[Slasher9]

so i guess we expect a SS to work "harder" to get back to 100% than a Pitcher would?

too f***ing funny......

[moonslav59]

so i guess we expect a SS to work "harder" to get back to 100% than a Pitcher would?

too f***ing funny......

 

Yes! As in, one can work as hard as possible and still never make it back at all or anywhere near 100%.

[moonslav59]

Best OF Ever?

 

How 2019 Red Sox outfield can be best ever

WWW.MLB.COM

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The Red Sox outfield in 2018 was -- and this should really go without saying -- just fantastic. Mookie Betts had an all-time season on his way to winning the Most Valuable Player Award. Andrew Benintendi improved in almost every way from the 2017 that placed him second in the

[jacksonianmarch]

I doubt anyone ever catches the 27 Yanks. Ruth, Combs and Meusel. All 3 finished with career BA’s above .300 with Ruth and Combs ending up in Cooperstown. As a matter of fact, 4 hitters from that squad are enshrined in the HOF. But the numbers from those 3 were silly.

 

Ruth .356/.486/.772

Combs .356/.414/.511

Meusel .337/.393/.510

 

Even if JD slides into the OF or Beni goes off this year, you’re not reaching them. Hell, Betts had a Ruthian type season and the trio were still 4+ WAR away

[moonslav59]

I doubt anyone ever catches the 27 Yanks. Ruth, Combs and Meusel. All 3 finished with career BA’s above .300 with Ruth and Combs ending up in Cooperstown. As a matter of fact, 4 hitters from that squad are enshrined in the HOF. But the numbers from those 3 were silly.

 

Ruth .356/.486/.772

Combs .356/.414/.511

Meusel .337/.393/.510

 

Even if JD slides into the OF or Beni goes off this year, you’re not reaching them. Hell, Betts had a Ruthian type season and the trio were still 4+ WAR away

 

I think they were thinking all around with a heavy influence on defense.

[jacksonianmarch]

We have literally no info on the defense of murderers row

[Bellhorn04]

We have literally no info on the defense of murderers row

 

Just a whole different era. The 27 Yankees were obviously awesome, but you can't really do a proper comparison to 2019 players.

[moonslav59]

Just a whole different era. The 27 Yankees were obviously awesome, but you can't really do a proper comparison to 2019 players.

 

True, so maybe they should have changed "all time" to last 50 years or so...

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Nathan Eovaldi re-signed with the Red Sox on a four-year, $68MM contract in December, but only after the right-hander drew serious interest from elsewhere. The Angels and Phillies “really wanted” Eovaldi, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, though the feeling wasn’t mutual. During the free-agent process, Eovaldi informed his agency, ACES, he only wanted to sign with the Red Sox or his hometown Astros, according to Bradford. But the Astros, despite the questions in their rotation, didn’t pursue the 29-year-old. “Houston is home for me,” Eovaldi told Bradford. “I would have had more talks with the Astros but they just didn’t want any part of it so they were out of the question. While Eovaldi added that he was “a little surprised” the Astros ignored him, he’s happy to be back in Boston after helping the club to a championship in 2018.

[Nick]

Sandy Leon worked as Sale’s personal catcher last year. But Christian Vazquez caught Sale’s first spring training start. Vazquez caught the first five innings before Leon replaced him in the sixth.

 

Sale pitched 4 scoeless innings while giving up 2 hits and striking out 7.

 

He said afterwards, "It would have been a no hitter and 12 strike out had Sandy been behind the plate".

[harmony]

MLBTR...

 

Nathan Eovaldi re-signed with the Red Sox on a four-year, $68MM contract in December, but only after the right-hander drew serious interest from elsewhere. The Angels and Phillies “really wanted” Eovaldi, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, though the feeling wasn’t mutual. During the free-agent process, Eovaldi informed his agency, ACES, he only wanted to sign with the Red Sox or his hometown Astros, according to Bradford. But the Astros, despite the questions in their rotation, didn’t pursue the 29-year-old. “Houston is home for me,” Eovaldi told Bradford. “I would have had more talks with the Astros but they just didn’t want any part of it so they were out of the question. While Eovaldi added that he was “a little surprised” the Astros ignored him, he’s happy to be back in Boston after helping the club to a championship in 2018.

This season the Red Sox are counting on Nathan Eovaldi the way the Sox were counting on Drew Pomeranz a year ago.

 

A year ago Pomeranz was a 29-year-old Red Sox lefthander coming off a season with these numbers:

 

32 GS, 173.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 137 ERA+

 

Today Eovaldi is a 29-year-old Red Sox righthander coming off a season with these numbers:

 

22 G, 21 GS, 111 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 112 ERA+

 

... including these numbers with the Red Sox:

 

12 G, 11 GS, 54 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 132 ERA+

 

For what it's worth.

[moonslav59]

sandy leon worked as sale’s personal catcher last year. But christian vazquez caught sale’s first spring training start. Vazquez caught the first five innings before leon replaced him in the sixth.

 

Sale pitched 4 scoeless innings while giving up 2 hits and striking out 7.

 

He said afterwards, "it would have been a no hitter and 12 strike out had sandy been behind the plate".

 

lol!

[moonslav59]

This season the Red Sox are counting on Nathan Eovaldi the way the Sox were counting on Drew Pomeranz a year ago.

 

A year ago Pomeranz was a 29-year-old Red Sox lefthander coming off a season with these numbers:

 

32 GS, 173.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 137 ERA+

 

Today Eovaldi is a 29-year-old Red Sox righthander coming off a season with these numbers:

 

22 G, 21 GS, 111 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 112 ERA+

 

... including these numbers with the Red Sox:

 

12 G, 11 GS, 54 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 132 ERA+

 

For what it's worth.

 

I've thought about this, and it does play into the "how we felt about this rotation vs how we felt about last year's rotation in March" argument.

 

I'm hopeful Eovaldi won't go the route of Pom Pom.

 

Man, Drew sure missed a nice pay check by sucking last year!

[Kimmi]

MLBTR...

 

Nathan Eovaldi re-signed with the Red Sox on a four-year, $68MM contract in December, but only after the right-hander drew serious interest from elsewhere. The Angels and Phillies “really wanted” Eovaldi, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, though the feeling wasn’t mutual. During the free-agent process, Eovaldi informed his agency, ACES, he only wanted to sign with the Red Sox or his hometown Astros, according to Bradford. But the Astros, despite the questions in their rotation, didn’t pursue the 29-year-old. “Houston is home for me,” Eovaldi told Bradford. “I would have had more talks with the Astros but they just didn’t want any part of it so they were out of the question. While Eovaldi added that he was “a little surprised” the Astros ignored him, he’s happy to be back in Boston after helping the club to a championship in 2018.

 

We don't know what 'serious interest' from the Angels and Phillies really means, but it sounds like Eovaldi is another player that wasn't just looking for the most money.

 

That earns some brownie points with me.

[Kimmi]

Sandy Leon worked as Sale’s personal catcher last year. But Christian Vazquez caught Sale’s first spring training start. Vazquez caught the first five innings before Leon replaced him in the sixth.

 

Sale pitched 4 scoeless innings while giving up 2 hits and striking out 7.

 

He said afterwards, "It would have been a no hitter and 12 strike out had Sandy been behind the plate".

 

He also said afterwards, "I wouldn't have made it out of the first inning if Swihart had been behind the plate".

 

Vazquez is very good behind the plate. I trust him to take over catching for Leon if Leon is traded.

 

Swihart may be very good too, but we just don't know. At this point, I don't trust him to catch a significant number of games. If we trade Leon, and Vaz got injured, and Swihart became our primary catcher, I'd be concerned. The concern may be completely unwarranted, but like I said, we just don't know at this point.

[Kimmi]

He also said afterwards, "I wouldn't have made it out of the first inning if Swihart had been behind the plate".

 

Vazquez is very good behind the plate. I trust him to take over catching for Leon if Leon is traded.

 

Swihart may be very good too, but we just don't know. At this point, I don't trust him to catch a significant number of games. If we trade Leon, and Vaz got injured, and Swihart became our primary catcher, I'd be concerned. The concern may be completely unwarranted, but like I said, we just don't know at this point.

 

I'm also reading that if Pedroia starts the season in extended spring training, the Sox will go with 13 pitchers and only 12 position players. So either way, it doesn't sound like we will be carrying 3 catchers.

[Kimmi]

This season the Red Sox are counting on Nathan Eovaldi the way the Sox were counting on Drew Pomeranz a year ago.

 

A year ago Pomeranz was a 29-year-old Red Sox lefthander coming off a season with these numbers:

 

32 GS, 173.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 137 ERA+

 

Today Eovaldi is a 29-year-old Red Sox righthander coming off a season with these numbers:

 

22 G, 21 GS, 111 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 112 ERA+

 

... including these numbers with the Red Sox:

 

12 G, 11 GS, 54 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 132 ERA+

 

For what it's worth.

 

It's not worth a whole lot Harmony.

 

Don't try to rain on our parade.

 

If he stays healthy, Eovaldi will be a vast improvement over what Pom gave us last year.

[Slasher9]

I doubt anyone ever catches the 27 Yanks. Ruth, Combs and Meusel. All 3 finished with career BA’s above .300 with Ruth and Combs ending up in Cooperstown. As a matter of fact, 4 hitters from that squad are enshrined in the HOF. But the numbers from those 3 were silly.

 

Ruth .356/.486/.772

Combs .356/.414/.511

Meusel .337/.393/.510

 

Those stats are utterly meaningless. Let me know what black/Latino pitchers they had to face?

[moonslav59]

It's not worth a whole lot Harmony.

 

Don't try to rain on our parade.

 

If he stays healthy, Eovaldi will be a vast improvement over what Pom gave us last year.

 

I think his point was more about how we feel about Eovaldi, now vs how we felt about Pom last March.

 

Not 2018 Pom vs 2018 or 2019 Eovaldi.

[Bellhorn04]

I think his point was more about how we feel about Eovaldi, now vs how we felt about Pom last March.

 

Not 2018 Pom vs 2018 or 2019 Eovaldi.

 

harmony is always trying to spoil our fun, it's just what he does. Last offseason he was trying to torture us about JDM signing somewhere else. We know how that worked out.

 

If you were to go back a few years you would find posts by harmony warning us not to become too exuberant about the potential of Mookie Betts.

[moonslav59]

harmony is always trying to spoil our fun, it's just what he does. Last offseason he was trying to torture us about JDM signing somewhere else. We know how that worked out.

 

If you were to go back a few years you would find posts by harmony warning us not to become too exuberant about the potential of Mookie Betts.

 

At least he's consistent. IMO, he uses WAR and projected WAR to a fault, and I disagree with his outlook, at times.

 

If a Sox fan was projecting a Sox player doing poorly, he'd probably show a projection that shows them being better. That just doesn't happen often.

 

[Bellhorn04]

At least he's consistent. IMO, he uses WAR and projected WAR to a fault, and I disagree with his outlook, at times.

 

Right, but the JDM thing had nothing to do with WAR and projections. It just irked him the way we were taking for granted that JDM was going to sign with us eventually. It's understandable that a non-Red Sox fan would feel like that. We have gotten a little cocky with our success and our free-spending owner.

[harmony]

harmony is always trying to spoil our fun, it's just what he does. Last offseason he was trying to torture us about JDM signing somewhere else. We know how that worked out.

 

If you were to go back a few years you would find posts by harmony warning us not to become too exuberant about the potential of Mookie Betts.

Although I frequently counter the natural bias on this forum, I've consistently promoted Mookie Betts since he was posting outlier BB/K ratio in the minors.

 

But now that you've raised the topic: Betts probably will repeat as an American League All Star but is likely to regress from the outstanding 10.4 fWAR posted last year.

 

I am disappointed if anyone was "tortured" by my speculation that another club might sign J.D. Martinez. His signing worked out for the Red Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

Although I frequently counter the natural bias on this forum, I've consistently promoted Mookie Betts since he was posting outlier BB/K ratio in the minors.

 

But now that you've raised the topic: Betts probably will repeat as an American League All Star but is likely to regress from the outstanding 10.4 fWAR posted last year.

 

I am disappointed if anyone was "tortured" by my speculation that another club might sign J.D. Martinez. His signing worked out for the Red Sox.

 

I'm just giving you a little 'heat', harmony.

[Kimmi]

I think his point was more about how we feel about Eovaldi, now vs how we felt about Pom last March.

 

Not 2018 Pom vs 2018 or 2019 Eovaldi.

 

Right, with the underlying tone that Eovaldi would turn into a pumpkin like like Pom did last year.

 

I'm a Harmony fan. But in this case, his post comparing Pom and Eovaldi was really not worth much.

 

He knows that.

[harmony]

Right, with the underlying tone that Eovaldi would turn into a pumpkin like like Pom did last year.

 

I'm a Harmony fan. But in this case, his post comparing Pom and Eovaldi was really not worth much.

 

He knows that.

This issue had been simmering for a few weeks since moonslav contended that a full year of Nathan Eovaldi should be an upgrade over Drew Pomeranz.

 

Moonslav could be right ... or not.