A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

I have to say, his agent played that well. I didn't think he'd get that much. I certainly don't think he's worth it, and the Padres have a LONG way to go and this just saddles them with a huge payroll they have to work around.

 

Do they really have that far to go? While they have a serious need for rotation help, the fact that they have 10 players ranked on nearly every top 100 list gives them the ability to trade for any available player, plus possibly a few who aren’t, and still have a small resource of dirt cheap players to help keep the payroll down while contributing...

[cp176]

Moe. Moe Lester.

 

Les is more - no less no more!

[sk7326]

I have to say, his agent played that well. I didn't think he'd get that much. I certainly don't think he's worth it, and the Padres have a LONG way to go and this just saddles them with a huge payroll they have to work around.

 

The Padres had a giant steaming turd at 3B - with a high caliber prospect maybe 2 years away. They have a lot of young talent ready to arrive in the next year or two. Guys like Machado just don't become available all the time. The industry is swimming in cash. Machado absolutely fits their timetable of contention. This contract has risk (like all contracts do), but the real comp for this sort of contract is ARod's texas deal - and that worked out just fine. Now they need starting pitching, but have the prospect depth to do something about it. Meanwhile they have an actual star to provide some stability while their guys who could very well be stars get their feet wet. This makes sense for everybody.

[kenmeister]

Do they really have that far to go? While they have a serious need for rotation help, the fact that they have 10 players ranked on nearly every top 100 list gives them the ability to trade for any available player, plus possibly a few who aren’t, and still have a small resource of dirt cheap players to help keep the payroll down while contributing...

 

I just looked at their MLB stats for last year. I saw just a few relievers worth talking about, and they were 30 games under .500. But I didn't know about the 10 players who must be in the minors.

[sk7326]

Do they really have that far to go? While they have a serious need for rotation help, the fact that they have 10 players ranked on nearly every top 100 list gives them the ability to trade for any available player, plus possibly a few who aren’t, and still have a small resource of dirt cheap players to help keep the payroll down while contributing...

 

Yeah - faced without a guy like Machado becoming truly available, the Padres were probably 2 years away from their internal talent justifying a hired gun. But a guy like Machado WAS avaliable, so why not? Getting a 26 year old at/near his prime fits virtually every time table there is.

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody knows, but even the $20M boost fell pretty short of the Cubs offer.

 

But there were no other bidders left. Lester had informed the Giants they were out.

 

Theo apparently felt he had to beat our offer by a lot to get Lester.

 

It's just total unsupported speculation that our offer wasn't legit.

[Slasher9]

The Padres had a giant steaming turd at 3B - with a high caliber prospect maybe 2 years away. They have a lot of young talent ready to arrive in the next year or two. Guys like Machado just don't become available all the time. The industry is swimming in cash. Machado absolutely fits their timetable of contention. This contract has risk (like all contracts do), but the real comp for this sort of contract is ARod's texas deal - and that worked out just fine. Now they need starting pitching, but have the prospect depth to do something about it. Meanwhile they have an actual star to provide some stability while their guys who could very well be stars get their feet wet. This makes sense for everybody.

 

Arod was doing steroids during his TX tenure. harder to do that now. cant make any comps to 90's - early 2000's players. there were enhanced human playing during that time.

[sk7326]

Arod was doing steroids during his TX tenure. harder to do that now. cant make any comps to 90's - early 2000's players. there were enhanced human playing during that time.

 

He was 25 when he entered it - he was a really great player before his deal started too. There is no real way to measure the impact PEDs may or may not have had on his performance. Showering 32 year Pujols with a massive deal was suicidal ... getting a guy in his prime is different. Machado fits virtually every team's timeline.

[moonslav59]

But there were no other bidders left. Lester had informed the Giants they were out.

 

Theo apparently felt he had to beat our offer by a lot to get Lester.

 

It's just total unsupported speculation that our offer wasn't legit.

 

Well, it was pretty far from the Cubs offer, so one can easily speculate, they knew the offer was not going to be enough all along.

 

That doesn't mean they never wanted him back. They placed a value on him and wouldn't go higher. That's their M.O. with their own players.

 

I'm not complaining. except for the initial botched offer.

[Nick]

If I'm head of the Players' Union, Machado to San Diego is great for the players.

 

You want as many mega deals as possible going to teams not named LA, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, etc.

 

Not Red Sox this year but other high end market teams still have bullets to fire. Read that as money to spend on players not named Machado and Harper. I think it's good for baseball. Whoever loses Harper sweepstake may turn to someone like Kimbrel. It'd be like my wife saying honey I saved you $300M so I'm going to buy Kimbrel for $85M.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Nick

[Hitch]

So long machado - see you in a future World Series - Whoops sorry about that you are going to San Diego - How about enjoy the sunshine .

 

They might not be there this year, but the Padres are looking pretty damn good for the future.

[jad]

They might not be there this year, but the Padres are looking pretty damn good for the future.

 

A lot better than whoever signs a .250 hitter for even more than that, a guy whose greatest accomplishment last year was winning the Home Run Derby.

[Kimmi]

Hard to believe any pitcher 30 or over should be given a 6 year contract. The question is where do you draw the line? Is it 4 years or 5 years for someone who has been great?

 

I would draw the line at 4 years for Sale.

 

I'm afraid that the Sox are going to overcompensate for the mistake they made with Lester and go too big with an extension for Sale.

[Kimmi]

Why bother?

 

I agree, there is no reason to bother. If he stays healthy this year, he will get a massive contract from somebody.

[Kimmi]

I wanted Lester back.

 

I even wish we bid $1 more than the Cubs, after we traded him.

 

I was just pointing out the context.

 

As it turned out, Porcello has been pretty close to the dollar per performance as Lester, and Porcello's deal ends after 2019, while Lester has his advanced age years left.

 

I wanted Lester back for a Homer Bailey type deal, which I think he would have signed had he not been low balled.

 

I did not think it was a good idea for the Sox to match or top the Cubs' offer.

[Kimmi]

I think it was John Henry that made those comments, and then he quickly changed his mind, yes. So what though? He's the owner and he's allowed to make the odd error in judgment.

 

I'm just kind of tired of hearing that particular story, I guess. It wasn't really some sort of carved-in-stone public pronouncement.

 

No, but it's a good rule to play by.

[Bellhorn04]

No, but it's a good rule to play by.

 

It's a sensible rule. Though I'm not sure sensible is always the best thing.

[cp176]

Likely Chris Sale will deserve to be paid. JH has already acknowledged his importance as a pitcher and as a teammate. If the decision to pay this man is made by the owner of the franchise it might be best to just accept it. In your personal views you might not like it. Get over yourselves - if you feel this way try to understand that he might not be listening to you. It is his money and I bet he gets to spend it the way he wants to.

[Nick]

Likely Chris Sale will deserve to be paid. JH has already acknowledged his importance as a pitcher and as a teammate. If the decision to pay this man is made by the owner of the franchise it might be best to just accept it. In your personal views you might not like it. Get over yourselves - if you feel this way try to understand that he might not be listening to you. It is his money and I bet he gets to spend it the way he wants to.

 

 

My guess is that DD STRONGLY recommended it to the ownership. Sale's trade is DD's deal. He's very vested in Sale's career with the Sox. By signing Chris year ahead of possible Betts' and Bradley's departures, who knows, we maybe going for three peat.

[Bellhorn04]

If they could retain both Sale and Betts that would be wonderful. That would mean Porcello, Bogaerts and Bradley are all gone, probably. Acquire a good defensive shortstop from somewhere, I guess.

 

Maybe DD is looking at the bullpen as a place to free up some money to enhance the chances of keeping Sale and Betts.

[notin]

If they could retain both Sale and Betts that would be wonderful. That would mean Porcello, Bogaerts and Bradley are all gone, probably. Acquire a good defensive shortstop from somewhere, I guess.

 

Maybe DD is looking at the bullpen as a place to free up some money to enhance the chances of keeping Sale and Betts.

 

I think out of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Martinez, and Sale, Sale is the last one I think the Sox should extend (just behind Bradley), simply because I just don’t think he will be worth the contract he commands. Now if that deal can be limited to 4 years or less, I’d like it ALOT more. The big issue is the Sox have absolutely no one to replace him coming up. Mike Sharwyn ain’t gonna do it...

[Nick]

2020

 

I think Porcello definitely goes if we extend Sale. I'll assume JD opts out after 2020.

 

Rick $20.625M

Pablo $18.455M

Pearce $ 6.250M

Mitch $ 6.500M

Chris $15.000M

Xander $12.000M

Total Savings = $ 98.830M

 

Sale $33.000M

Betts $ 8.000M ($28M total, arb 3)

Xander $20.000M

Bradley $ 4.000M ($12M+ total)

E Rod $ 4.000M ($8.3M total, arb 2)

Beni $4.000M (arb 1)

 

Major Additions = $73.000M

 

Net Positive $26M Current CBT Payroll (2019)= $238M

2020 CBT Payroll = $218M before other arbitration raises and rest of 40 man roster costs.

 

We are short one starter and no 1B. We can probably sign a fifth starter and 1B for $16M combined if no one emerges from the farm.

 

Note: Betts is already at $28M (projected for 2019). Really, what's the delta if we decide to pay him $35M? Doable. If he says no,

go after Trout.

Edited February 20, 2019 by Nick

[moonslav59]

2020

 

I think Porcello definitely goes if we extend Sale. I'll assume JD opts out after 2020.

 

Rick $20.625M

Pablo $18.455M

Pearce $ 6.250M

Mitch $ 6.500M

Chris $15.000M

Xander $12.000M

Total Savings = $ 98.830M

 

Sale $33.000M

Betts $ 8.000M ($28M total)

Xander $20.000M

Bradley $ 4.000M ($12M+ total)

E Rod $ 4.000M

Beni $4.000M

 

Major Additions = $73.000M

 

Net Positive $26M Current CBT Payroll (2019)= $238M

2020 CBT Payroll = $218M before other arbitration raises and rest of 40 man roster costs.

 

We are short one starter and no 1B. We can probably sign a fifth starter and 1B for $16M combined if no one emerges from the farm.

 

Note: Betts is already at $28M (projected for 2019). Really, what's the delta if we decide to pay him $35M? Doable.

 

So, I guess no reset.

[cp176]

If they could retain both Sale and Betts that would be wonderful. That would mean Porcello, Bogaerts and Bradley are all gone, probably. Acquire a good defensive shortstop from somewhere, I guess.

 

Maybe DD is looking at the bullpen as a place to free up some money to enhance the chances of keeping Sale and Betts.

 

You might be right with respect to your predictions. I certainly hav no idea and won't even take a guess. Within 2 or 3 years, if some things don't change then baseball as we currently know it likely won't be the same. Management including ownership is very vested in the use of analytics and what they indicate in general about players of a certain age. With owners reluctant to sign free agents because of the number 30 plus, to any type of longer term contract, it is going to be interesting seeing what will happen. Some owners will be risk takers realizing that the numbers aren't always right. There will always be exceptions. There are also other factors to consider in addition to on the field play. JH tends to view Chris Sale this way. His importance to his team is pretty impressive. I'm with JH on this one although it makes no difference what I think.

[fxkatt]

If I'm head of the Players' Union, Machado to San Diego is great for the players.

 

You want as many mega deals as possible going to teams not named LA, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, etc.

 

Not Red Sox this year but other high end market teams still have bullets to fire. Read that as money to spend on players not named Machado and Harper. I think it's good for baseball. Whoever loses Harper sweepstake may turn to someone like Kimbrel. It'd be like my wife saying honey I saved you $300M so I'm going to buy Kimbrel for $85M.

 

Machado could be a Yankee in 5 years since he has an opt-out. And with he new collective bargaining coming up, he could very well kiss 150m good-bye. I hear that the Padres may also get Harper. No more San Diego teams to compete with them, so they want a big time baseball team there.

[moonslav59]

2020

 

I think Porcello definitely goes if we extend Sale. I'll assume JD opts out after 2020.

 

Rick $20.625M

Pablo $18.455M

Pearce $ 6.250M

Mitch $ 6.500M

Chris $15.000M

Xander $12.000M

Total Savings = $ 98.830M

 

Sale $33.000M

Betts $ 8.000M ($28M total, arb 3)

Xander $20.000M

Bradley $ 4.000M ($12M+ total)

E Rod $ 4.000M ($8.3M total, arb 2)

Beni $4.000M (arb 1)

 

Major Additions = $73.000M

 

Net Positive $26M Current CBT Payroll (2019)= $238M

2020 CBT Payroll = $218M before other arbitration raises and rest of 40 man roster costs.

 

We are short one starter and no 1B. We can probably sign a fifth starter and 1B for $16M combined if no one emerges from the farm.

 

Note: Betts is already at $28M (projected for 2019). Really, what's the delta if we decide to pay him $35M? Doable. If he says no,

go after Trout.

 

For argument's sake, how would you keep Sale & Betts, reset the tax next year and be poised to keep Betts after his control years expire?

 

Do you let Bogey go or trade JBJ? Any other ideas besides hoping Pedey retires?

 

[dgalehouse]

It goes without saying that Sale is a great pitcher . I do think there are legitimate concerns about his health and durability.

[moonslav59]

It goes without saying that Sale is a great pitcher . I do think there are legitimate concerns about his health and durability.

 

I'm his biggest fan, but you are right.

 

This year might tell us more, but there will always be a lingering concern.

[cp176]

It goes without saying that Sale is a great pitcher . I do think there are legitimate concerns about his health and durability.

 

And you might be right but if the man with the money thinks he is ok then i say great and good for him. If Sale is resigned, my guess is that there is no way JH won't do what he can to keep this team competitive. Once again, i don't think that he is listening to the folks declaring the hard times ahead. He just must not be very smart I guess or maybe he knows something we don't.

[cp176]

I'm his biggest fan, but you are right.

 

This year might tell us more, but there will always be a lingering concern.

 

Hold on a sec - not so sure that you are his biggest fan. One of his biggest maybe - grant you that.