And the off season begins (2018-19)

[dgalehouse]

I don’t see the harm either. But last we heard it’s not in the budget.

 

Couple things - who cares if they were secondary options? Did they work out as closers? Also, as for the small window - it is Dombrowski’s job to keep that window open for as long as possible. Unlike a lot of people on this board, he might not be thinking “let’s go all in for 2019 and figure out 2020 when it gets here!!”

 

As much as I think most fans overhype the closer, at the very least they usually do sign short term contracts. I’d love for the Sox to bring in both Ottavino and Britton. (On those projected 3 year deals? Sign me up!) I just don’t see it happening. And while it’s possible that it might still happen, is it looking likely? And does it really make sense for this team? I will say, a lot of fans seem to want to live in a world where Henry buys their worries away and it’s sacririgious to suggest otherwise.

 

And I also don’t see it as the end of the window....

 

I don't live in a world where I want John Henry to buy my worries away. I also don't presume to place any limitations on what he is allowed to spend on his prized possession. ( Well , one of his prized possessions anyway )

[moonslav59]

I think that you are absolutely right. There may be numerous guys out there who would be willing to change their current roles to play the closer role on this team. Kimbrel obviously is one of the best but I think the notion that the closer role cannot be filled very well by a decent starter who might want to take that role on is not accurate. We all saw first hand how 4 or 5 of our starting pitchers could have done that role and personally I think done it better than Kimbrel. DD for all we know may have already had discussions inside and outside of the organization with guys about filling that role.

 

Yes, and closers, if they do well, get paid more than set-up men and 6th starters. That's a nice incentive.

 

I don't see Johnson, Velazquez or Wright being asked to close, but any of our current RP'ers would probably jump at the chance to be named the closer or to just have a chance to win it:

 

Thornburg

 

Brasier

 

Barnes

 

Hembree (doubtful he can improve enough to win the role and do well in it)

 

If we add a quality pitcher to this mix and leave some budget space for the summer, in case nobody shows they can close, we should be fine.

 

Or, we end up using Eovaldi as a closer for the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

It's really hard to say what's going on. We've heard rumors about the Sox being open to trades to create payroll room. We've also heard rumors about them remaining in touch with Kimbrel and being in on Ottavino.

 

I think they're watching the market and probably keeping an eye on the Yankees too.

 

At the same time there's no denying we've got serious luxury tax issues, unless JH finally just says 'Ah screw it, you only live once, let's go for it again.'

 

If Henry were not reigning things in a bit financially, I believe that our closer would already be signed. Now, I firmly believe that Dombrowski will still get us a closer, and he might still have to pay more than Henry would like, but it's kind of the 'do whatever you can to avoid a big contract' plan first.

 

There may be no other option that Dombrowski finds suitable.

[Kimmi]

I have thought we'd look to reset after 2020, but more and more, I'm thinking it might be after 2019.

 

I am leaning towards after 2019 for the reset, but much of whether we reset depends on what happens this year.

[Kimmi]

My comment was a tease but you took it seriously.

 

Ah. My bad on missing that.

 

I should have known, since you are against big contracts as I am.

[Kimmi]

Or.... crazy thought! We could quit pretending that a high salary guaranteed a good reliever and maybe notice that Smith, Jeffress, Yates, and Givens were all better than Kimbrel last year. And Keone Kela - whom I forgot to mention but is also likely available- was only slightly less effective.

 

But I guess some people expect only high priced players who will make more difficult to impossible to retain the core like Betts and insist John Henry owes it to them to spend more. Maybe the Sox should give Kimbrel his 6 year / $100 mill and let EVERYONE walk. That way, in 2024, we know who will handle the ninth inning. As for who handles the other eight innings or who hits to ever get a lead, well, who cares? After all, we’d have a closer.

 

None of the guys I mentioned were untried as closers. But do you remember who the last “unproven” closers for Boston were? Some guys named Papelbon and Uehara. I think they worked out all right, even without all that “closing experience” and without being the highest paid in the game...

 

I like this post.

[Kimmi]

Henry made that world for us.

 

We do not want to be an entitled fan base.

 

It's what we hated about the Yankees during the George years.

[Larry Cook]

If Henry were not reigning things in a bit financially, I believe that our closer would already be signed. Now, I firmly believe that Dombrowski will still get us a closer, and he might still have to pay more than Henry would like, but it's kind of the 'do whatever you can to avoid a big contract' plan first.

 

There may be no other option that Dombrowski finds suitable.

 

Help me understand why Henry isn’t all in on the 2019 season. Money be damned!

 

He has a chance to repeat by signing a couple good relievers and he should go balls out to get this done, especially knowing this is probably his last chance for a few years as desperate Dave has burned our minor league system.

[cp176]

i believe that Dombrowski knows the difference between a decent deal and a bad deal. i don't think that it would make any difference at all even if JH gave him an open check book - he would still be looking to sign a potential closer to the best deal possible. He is a little brighter than some think in my opinion.

[moonslav59]

Help me understand why Henry isn’t all in on the 2019 season. Money be damned!

 

He has a chance to repeat by signing a couple good relievers and he should go balls out to get this done, especially knowing this is probably his last chance for a few years as desperate Dave has burned our minor league system.

.

If we are going to reset after 2019, your plan basically means we'll have to totally blow things up after 2019 while having a nice pen and nothing else for 2020 and beyond.

 

(Yes, I'm exaggerating.)

[Northern Star]

We do not want to be an entitled fan base.

 

It's what we hated about the Yankees during the George years.

 

There's two sides to the entitled fanbase thing. The other is when you're charging this much for tickets, I think the fans are entitled to expect a certain level of quality in the product, which means perennial playoff contender.

[Northern Star]

Help me understand why Henry isn’t all in on the 2019 season. Money be damned!

 

He has a chance to repeat by signing a couple good relievers and he should go balls out to get this done, especially knowing this is probably his last chance for a few years as desperate Dave has burned our minor league system.

 

No one has repeated since 2000. It's not worth going "all out" for if that in any way hampers us down the road.

[oldtimer]

Help me understand why Henry isn’t all in on the 2019 season. Money be damned!

 

He has a chance to repeat by signing a couple good relievers and he should go balls out to get this done, especially knowing this is probably his last chance for a few years as desperate Dave has burned our minor league system.

 

It's easy to spend money, especially other peoples, but difficult to spend money wisely. Our prospects values could be monetized along with the payroll and other expenses. DD has spent freely in both cash and prospects to achieve the WS win we all hoped for. Getting close to the time to pay the piper. We probably will get Robertson or Ottavino and likely nothing more for 2019. It may be enough, we shall see.

[moonslav59]

It's easy to spend money, especially other peoples, but difficult to spend money wisely. Our prospects values could be monetized along with the payroll and other expenses. DD has spent freely in both cash and prospects to achieve the WS win we all hoped for. Getting close to the time to pay the piper. We probably will get Robertson or Ottavino and likely nothing more for 2019. It may be enough, we shall see.

 

I wouldn't be so sure about signing a big FA RP'er this winter.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm not sure why the Red Sox would have to blow things up after the 2019 season. At that time, they will need to make two major signings: Bogaerts and an ace SP. The SP could be Sale but if there are long term health concerns with Sale, the Red Sox could sign a guy like G.Cole. The Red Sox will save a lot of money by replacing Porcello with a cost controlled SP. They free up over 15 million with the contracts of Pearce, Moreland, and Nunez. I don't expect the Red Sox to spend big on the bullpen--Feltman is the Red Sox future closer. Sandoval's contract is finally off the books in 2020.

 

2020 starting staff:

Cole

Price

Eovaldi

Rodriguez

Shawaryn/Hernandez/Houck compete for Porcello's spot.

 

Same outfield.

I'm not sure about the situation at 2b, but the CI will be some combination of Devers (who could be an MVP caliber player soon), Chavis, and Dalbec. Bogaerts at SS.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure why the Red Sox would have to blow things up after the 2019 season. At that time, they will need to make two major signings: Bogaerts and an ace SP. The SP could be Sale but if there are long term health concerns with Sale, the Red Sox could sign a guy like G.Cole. The Red Sox will save a lot of money by replacing Porcello with a cost controlled SP. They free up over 15 million with the contracts of Pearce, Moreland, and Nunez. I don't expect the Red Sox to spend big on the bullpen--Feltman is the Red Sox future closer. Sandoval's contract is finally off the books in 2020.

 

2020 starting staff:

Cole

Price

Eovaldi

Rodriguez

Shawaryn/Hernandez/Houck compete for Porcello's spot.

 

Same outfield.

I'm not sure about the situation at 2b, but the CI will be some combination of Devers (who could be an MVP caliber player soon), Chavis, and Dalbec. Bogaerts at SS.

 

I was assuming a reset after 2019, and with the signing of Eovaldi to 4 years and the idea of signing 2 RP'ers to 2+ year deals, we'd be saying good bye to several key players.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure why the Red Sox would have to blow things up after the 2019 season. At that time, they will need to make two major signings: Bogaerts and an ace SP. The SP could be Sale but if there are long term health concerns with Sale, the Red Sox could sign a guy like G.Cole. The Red Sox will save a lot of money by replacing Porcello with a cost controlled SP. They free up over 15 million with the contracts of Pearce, Moreland, and Nunez. I don't expect the Red Sox to spend big on the bullpen--Feltman is the Red Sox future closer. Sandoval's contract is finally off the books in 2020.

 

2020 starting staff:

Cole

Price

Eovaldi

Rodriguez

Shawaryn/Hernandez/Houck compete for Porcello's spot.

 

Same outfield.

I'm not sure about the situation at 2b, but the CI will be some combination of Devers (who could be an MVP caliber player soon), Chavis, and Dalbec. Bogaerts at SS.

 

Losing Porcello and replacing him with Shawaryn/Johnson/Velazquez/Wright is a huge drop off.

 

I'm not sure we can sign Bogey and a replacement for Sale and still be under the limit.

 

Replacing Moreland and Pearce with Chavis/Dalbec might work, but it's a gamble.

 

No Nunez or Holt, so what, Lin plays 2B?

 

JD may opt out.

[notin]

For want of the cash , the closer was lost. For want of a closer , the game was lost . For want of a game , the series was lost. For want of a series, the pennant was lost . For want of a pennant , the kingdom was lost. The kingdom was lost . All for the want of some cash. Point is : To stay on top you have to take care of the details. My guess is that we sign Ottavino. While he doesn't have the track record and reputation of Kimbrel or Britton, he does have good stuff and wouldn't cost nearly as much.

 

 

Sing it to Dombrowski.

 

Pete Abe write today about how not only did DD leave no room in his budget for a bullpen, this apparently isn’t the first time he’s done so...

[notin]

I don't live in a world where I want John Henry to buy my worries away. I also don't presume to place any limitations on what he is allowed to spend on his prized possession. ( Well , one of his prized possessions anyway )

 

 

Right.

 

You actually said earlier on this thread you were starting to worry.

 

I suggested several closers who might be available in a trade - one of whom was an All Star last season - and naturally you decided to compare those options to a fictional pitcher who aged out of independent leagues. And now you think Ottavino - who combines high salary with a lack of closing AND has a spotty career track record (and a TJ to boot!) is the logical solution. Got it...

Edited December 30, 2018 by notin

[a700hitter]

No one has repeated since 2000. It's not worth going "all out" for if that in any way hampers us down the road.

Back to Back championships would be quite an accomplishment. The cliff will get here one way or another. Pushing for back to back championships shouldn't make it much worse.

[cp176]

Sing it to Dombrowski.

 

Pete Abe write today about how not only did DD leave no room in his budget for a bullpen, this apparently isn’t the first time he’s done so...

 

Also mentioned a healthy number of pretty good closers that DD has found throughout his career. The article certainly might be viewed in a positive way. People are going to draw their own conclusions about Dombrowski's ability to do anything.

[Kimmi]

Help me understand why Henry isn’t all in on the 2019 season. Money be damned!

 

He has a chance to repeat by signing a couple good relievers and he should go balls out to get this done, especially knowing this is probably his last chance for a few years as desperate Dave has burned our minor league system.

 

The problem with going all out for the 2019 season is that it would further dampen the long term outlook. Chances are, we wouldn't be able to acquire great relievers without either putting more of a financial strain on the team in upcoming years, making the tax reset very difficult, or depleting the farm system even more.

 

Dombrowski went all out in 2016-2018 and it paid off. But, we are now starting to feel the effects on the longer term outlook of the team, both financially and prospects-wise.

[Kimmi]

There's two sides to the entitled fanbase thing. The other is when you're charging this much for tickets, I think the fans are entitled to expect a certain level of quality in the product, which means perennial playoff contender.

 

The fans deserve a quality product, which they have received every year since the Henry ownership group took over. Henry has been very generous with his wallet.

 

The fans are not entitled to expect Henry to pay to have a superstar at every position, no matter the cost.

[Kimmi]

Sing it to Dombrowski.

 

Pete Abe write today about how not only did DD leave no room in his budget for a bullpen, this apparently isn’t the first time he’s done so...

 

Maybe Larry Cook was right all along.

 

Maybe Dombrowski has no plan.

[Kimmi]

Back to Back championships would be quite an accomplishment. The cliff will get here one way or another. Pushing for back to back championships shouldn't make it much worse.

 

!!!

[Bellhorn04]

If Henry were not reigning things in a bit financially, I believe that our closer would already be signed.

 

I don't think that's necessarily the case. Dombrowski waited it out much longer than this with JDM last year.

 

And so many of the big name closer types are still unsigned.

[notin]

I don't think that's necessarily the case. Dombrowski waited it out much longer than this with JDM last year.

 

And so many of the big name closer types are still unsigned.

 

 

Absolutely true.

 

But no one seems to be contesting the notion that Dombrowski has a budget limit. I hadn’t even seen that article when we were posting about this topic yesterday....

[Bellhorn04]

Sing it to Dombrowski.

 

Pete Abe write today about how not only did DD leave no room in his budget for a bullpen, this apparently isn’t the first time he’s done so...

 

I just read this piece, but I don't see anything in there about 'this isn’t the first time he’s done so'.

[Bellhorn04]

Absolutely true.

 

But no one seems to be contesting the notion that Dombrowski has a budget limit. I hadn’t even seen that article when we were posting about this topic yesterday....

 

I'm sure there's a limit, but we have not seen anything definitive about what that limit is.

 

We went 40 million + over the first threshold last year. We're already about 35 million over it this year. We signed Pearce and Eovaldi. It doesn't look like belt-tightening just yet.

[Kimmi]

I don't think that's necessarily the case. Dombrowski waited it out much longer than this with JDM last year.

 

And so many of the big name closer types are still unsigned.

 

Possibly.

 

I just don't think that Dombrowski has the open checkbook that he's had in the past years.