And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Bellhorn04]

I suggested the home team discount.

 

Perhaps what needs to happen is to implement penalties for teams not spending minimum CB payroll. Make the 'floor' relative to the 'ceiling' as it exists. Say the gap should be $100M. So for 2019, each team must spend at least $108M.

 

For 2018, 5 teams had payroll of less than $100M.

 

I think they should probably do something to tie the revenue sharing to payroll spending. There should be disincentives for pocketing the revenue sharing and tanking.

[dgalehouse]

It's not as if some of these franchises are poverty cases. These are all extremely wealthy people. And it's not as if the " small markets " are some backwoods town. These are large metropolitan areas that should be capable of supporting the team. But if you keep giving them money , they will keep taking it .

[harmony]

Gee, typically you look at the fWAR of the players, but then Holt (1.4) would be better than Knebel (1.0).

 

Was Knebel really the closer last year? He lost the job to Jeremy Jeffress and was demoted to the minors at one point (which may have lead to another year of control). He did lead the team with 16 saves, but Knebel only had 2 saves after July 27th.

 

Could they get better for Holt? Maybe, but Holt had 367 PA's and a 109 OPS+ while playing 6 positions last year and is a former All Star. If one likes post-season stats, he has a .976 OPS in the last 3 post-seasons. He's not a bad player at all and certainly not just a utility player...

Milwaukee reliever Corey Knebel is a three-years-younger former All Star with a 0.90 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in the postseason.

 

In his only remaining year of team control Holt will likely fall between the negative 0.9 fWAR he posted in 2017 and the 1.4 fWAR he posted in 2018.

 

In his first arbitration season Knebel will likely fall between the 2.7 fWAR he posted in 2017 and the 1.0 fWAR he posted in 2018.

 

The NL Central champion Brewers overcame a shaky starting rotation with a stellar bullpen. I doubt Milwaukee will break that up.

Edited December 28, 2018 by harmony

[Kimmi]

This is getting ridiculous. Carl Edwards Jr. is a young, not yet arbitration eligible pitcher with good results and very good potential. Jesse Chavez is a 35 year old , much traveled ham and egger who has a career ERA of 4.45 , and pitched a total of 39 innings for the Cubs . These are the kinds of examples one should use to prove a point ? I'm sure anyone who wants to take the time could find guys who are low paid , yet have very good fWars at any position on the field. What does it prove ? We all know that you can sometimes find a good bargain in the basement. However , you usually will get what you paid for . That pretty much goes for relief pitchers , closers , starting pitchers , position players , autos , washers , dryers , refrigerators and most anything else . The exceptions to this only serve to prove the rule. The Red Sox are not the World Series champs by acting like small market, small time Charlies. Let's not start now . We don't want to have a championship caliber team only to have some low cost jabroni coming in from the bullpen in the ninth inning.

 

The point is that you do not have to spend big to have sign the Kimbrels of the world to 4+ year contracts in order to have a great bullpen. These are not necessarily basement bargains either, they are just mostly unknown. Sign or trade for them cheap, then let them be the next Kimbrel for several years at a fraction of the cost.

[Kimmi]

I have duly noted that there are a number of fans who feel that closer is the area where it is okay to economize . Kind of like having a multi million dollar mansion without much in the way of smoke or carbon monoxide detectors, much less a sprinkler system. I just don't think that is very wise . We'll see what happens.

 

I think your concern comes from equating 'economizing' with lack of quality. I am not suggesting that.

[Kimmi]

It’s not like DD signed Eovaldi as some superfluous Swiss Army knife. He’s signed to be your 4th or 5th starter. If you shift him to the pen, you’ll need to find a fourth or fifth starter. Yes, you have Johnson and Velasquez, but those guys are middling at best with almost no upside. The Yanks won 100 games last year and by most accounts will be upgraded come ST. You can not afford to have your contingency plan be pulling a starter out and replacing him with a guy who’s gonna be meh.

 

I know most people realize that bringing in relief guys on the FA market will clog up the payroll for 2020 and beyond. But 2019 is the final year of this window before major losses are incurred. You don’t throw that away on the closer slot. DD will get someone and it won’t be a no name.

 

I agree that Dombrowski will get someone to close and that it won't be a no name.

 

I can't see Eovaldi being our closer unless that is dictated by health reasons.

[Kimmi]

I wasn't really asking to compare them as closers, but if Eovaldi ends up there (maybe for the playoffs), I'd be okay with the idea, assuming our other starters are healthy and solid.

 

I was more asking about an either-or choice: If we signed Kimbrel, would we prefer him over having Johnson/Velazquez as our 5th starter, instead of our 6th starter.

 

I posted back before the offseason even started that re-signing Eovaldi was a much higher priority than re-signing Kimbrel. My opinion on that has not changed.

[Nick]

I think your concern comes from equating 'economizing' with lack of quality. I am not suggesting that.

 

I completely understand where you are coming from.

 

It's risky to give out 6 year contract to a closer. Period.

[Kimmi]

Here’s what it comes down to. The Sox won the division by 8 games. That seems like a ridiculous margin, but when you consider that the 4 game sweep in August really sealed the Yanks fate, you see how fragile that lead was. If the tables turned and the Yanks swept that series, the division would have been tied. Yes, you could turn to Barnes. Yes, his peripherals are great. The problem with Barnes is that he never outperforms his FIP, his BABIP remains abnormally high year after year and his career HR rate is right at the rate Kimbrel posted last year (which was a career high by a lot) in what everyone considers a down season. You’re talking about a hittable closer with big K rates and inexplicable hit tendencies for a guy with his kind of stuff. Add in the unknown of him closing and it’s a recipe for pain. Also, you need to replace Barnes in the setup role if you promote him to closer. Kelly gave you some value. He’s gone. Barnes moves to closer, his innings in middle relief are gone. Brasier becomes a need rather than a nice to have and if anyone falters, you’re f***ed

 

Stop with this nonsense Jacko.

 

Just stop.

[Kimmi]

As much as I hate the fact that we have severe budget challenges, I do think choice like Eovaldi vs Kimbrel are a reality. I'm not saying Henry is shutting the door on any more big spending this winter, but it very well may be the case.

 

In our current case, "finding the money" is very hard. Trading Porcello would negate the Eovaldi signing. The only salaries I can see that are tradeable without us opening another huge hole are Nunez and Moreland. An argument can be made that both are very important, but probably not more than getting a solid closer. I'm not sure if anyone wanys Nunez or Moreland at their costs.

 

Again, as a hypothetical, who do take as an either/or:

 

Eovaldi

 

or

 

Kimbrel

 

To me, it's not close. It's Eovaldi.

 

Henry is indeed shutting the door on spending money. He will be looking to reset the tax penalty, likely next year.

 

Otherwise, we would have probably already signed our closer, and it may have even been Kimbrel with his 4 year deal.

[Nick]

Stop with this nonsense Jacko.

 

Just stop.

 

I can just hear the Yankee brain trust telling each other "had it not for that 4 game sweep", we'd won the division and probably the world series.". Now that would be sweet.

 

We won despite wobbly performance from Kimbrel and less than average output from Betts and JD Martinez. Now think about THAT.

Edited December 28, 2018 by Nick

[Kimmi]

Exactly . If that was the plan , it would be absolutely asinine . And I don't see Dombrowski or Henry as asinine. I am sure they do have a plan for the pen . But I am starting to get nervous about it .

 

Don't get nervous. Has Dombrowski ever let you down?

[Nick]

Don't get nervous. Has Dombrowski ever let you down?

 

DD is that trophy wife. She'll spend money sure but what ever she buys will be 'chic'.

[Kimmi]

One thing about Barnes - while his career ERA is 4.14, it’s probably worth noting that it has gotten better every year.

 

Not that ERA is the best measure for a closer. When you only pitch 60 IP per season, each earned run raises it a full 0.15. So one bad 4 run inning, and it goes up 0.60...

 

In 2018:

 

Kimbrel - fWAR = 1.5, Salary = $15 mil

 

Barnes - fWAR = 1.3, Salary = $500K

 

I'll let you guys do the math.

[Kimmi]

That 3 Run Homer in game 4 was a pretty big hit in the WS. I like Moreland. Down 4-0, that hit got everything going. Lost the night before, one of the most crucial hits in that Series.

 

I really like Moreland. I'm not nearly as eager to trade him away as some others are.

[Kimmi]

I completely understand where you are coming from.

 

It's risky to give out 6 year contract to a closer. Period.

 

And Kimbrel isn't exactly a spring chicken.

[Bellhorn04]

Henry is indeed shutting the door on spending money. He will be looking to reset the tax penalty, likely next year.

 

Otherwise, we would have probably already signed our closer, and it may have even been Kimbrel with his 4 year deal.

 

I think it's a little early to say Henry is shutting the door on spending. If he was really intent on shutting the door I don't think he would have approved the Eovaldi signing.

 

And there are still a lot of unsigned free agents.

[Jack Flap]

I don't get the angst over the bullpen. It's pretty clear what's going on here, and it's that Dombrowski is looking to make further additions but is waiting for the market to come to him. I'd be pretty shocked if we went into opening day without adding at least one significant relief arm.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't get the angst over the bullpen. It's pretty clear what's going on here, and it's that Dombrowski is looking to make further additions but is waiting for the market to come to him. I'd be pretty shocked if we went into opening day without adding at least one significant relief arm.

 

Well said Flap.

[oldtimer]

And Kimbrel isn't exactly a spring chicken.

 

Thirty is not really a ripe old age as he would not be considered long in the tooth or over the hill as yet.

[dgalehouse]

I asked Alexa if D.D. was going to sign a top reliever. She said , " Hmmm. I don't know ."

[Station 13]

I asked Alexa if D.D. was going to sign a top reliever. She said , " Hmmm. I don't know ."

 

Worn out from requests playing New York New York

[Kimmi]

I can just hear the Yankee brain trust telling each other "had it not for that 4 game sweep", we'd won the division and probably the world series.". Now that would be sweet.

 

We won despite wobbly performance from Kimbrel and less than average output from Betts and JD Martinez. Now think about THAT.

 

The funny thing is, I think it was right before that series that Cashman made his "Do Damage" statement.

[Kimmi]

I think it's a little early to say Henry is shutting the door on spending. If he was really intent on shutting the door I don't think he would have approved the Eovaldi signing.

 

And there are still a lot of unsigned free agents.

 

Oh, I'm not saying that Dombrowski's not getting us a closer. He'll get us one, even if he ends up having to pay more than he'd like. But I don't think Dombrowski currently has the open checkbook that he had a few years ago.

 

Henry probably gave the directive to limit the contract given to a closer, if possible. That's why Dombrowski is waiting things out.

[Kimmi]

I don't get the angst over the bullpen. It's pretty clear what's going on here, and it's that Dombrowski is looking to make further additions but is waiting for the market to come to him. I'd be pretty shocked if we went into opening day without adding at least one significant relief arm.

 

I agree 100%.

[Kimmi]

Thirty is not really a ripe old age as he would not be considered long in the tooth or over the hill as yet.

 

Thirty may not be old, but 30 at the beginning of a long term contract is.

[notin]

I think it's a little early to say Henry is shutting the door on spending. If he was really intent on shutting the door I don't think he would have approved the Eovaldi signing.

 

And there are still a lot of unsigned free agents.

 

 

 

The early indications are that he appears to be reigning it in somewhat. But Dombrowski was hired for his baseball acumen and while getting a good reliever or two on a budget is certainly more difficult, it’s something he should be able to do one way or another...

[notin]

Thirty is not really a ripe old age as he would not be considered long in the tooth or over the hill as yet.

 

It he’s not signing a one year deal either. Unlike us fans, Dombrowski doesn’t have the luxury of looking solely at 2019 and has to consider all the future ramifications on his payroll. If he doesn’t do that, he isn’t doing his job...

[Bellhorn04]

The early indications are that he appears to be reigning it in somewhat. But Dombrowski was hired for his baseball acumen and while getting a good reliever or two on a budget is certainly more difficult, it’s something he should be able to do one way or another...

 

It's really hard to say what's going on. We've heard rumors about the Sox being open to trades to create payroll room. We've also heard rumors about them remaining in touch with Kimbrel and being in on Ottavino.

 

I think they're watching the market and probably keeping an eye on the Yankees too.

 

At the same time there's no denying we've got serious luxury tax issues, unless JH finally just says 'Ah screw it, you only live once, let's go for it again.'

[notin]

It's really hard to say what's going on. We've heard rumors about the Sox being open to trades to create payroll room. We've also heard rumors about them remaining in touch with Kimbrel and being in on Ottavino.

 

I think they're watching the market and probably keeping an eye on the Yankees too.

 

At the same time there's no denying we've got serious luxury tax issues, unless JH finally just says 'Ah screw it, you only live once, let's go for it again.'

 

 

 

The Sox might be "in on" Ottavino, but how far in? I haven't heard anything about an offer. I haven't much in the way of any offers for Ottavino, so I suspect once he gets a few, the Sox drop out. If they do go heavy on a reliever, they might have to shed payroll elsewhere.

 

I doubt Henry adopts the "let's go for it one more time" attitude. That strikes me as more of a pipe dream from the fans than the logic employed by a billionaire businessman.

 

I do think DD adds two more relievers (and possibly jettisons Thornburg). One more signing that will make no one's nipples explode with delight. And there will likely be a trade, since we have an issue with an overcrowded roster on the bench...