And the off season begins (2018-19)

[cp176]

Or.... crazy thought! We could quit pretending that a high salary guaranteed a good reliever and maybe notice that Smith, Jeffress, Yates, and Givens were all better than Kimbrel last year. And Keone Kela - whom I forgot to mention but is also likely available- was only slightly less effective.

 

But I guess some people expect only high priced players who will make more difficult to impossible to retain the core like Betts and insist John Henry owes it to them to spend more. Maybe the Sox should give Kimbrel his 6 year / $100 mill and let EVERYONE walk. That way, in 2024, we know who will handle the ninth inning. As for who handles the other eight innings or who hits to ever get a lead, well, who cares? After all, we’d have a closer.

 

None of the guys I mentioned were untried as closers. But do you remember who the last “unproven” closers for Boston were? Some guys named Papelbon and Uehara. I think they worked out all right, even without all that “closing experience” and without being the highest paid in the game...

 

Even with the sarcasm here notin, I really do agree with you. Paying huge money in terms of years and dollars to a potential closer would not be a good call nor would it really be necessary. The but for me is that a good GM isn't going to pay for someone to come in and hope that it all turns out right. They aren't going to spend much time searching for a guy to get the job done. Whoever comes will be someone who has proven that they can actually pitch before the role is handed to them. You obviously know the names of most of the guys out there and who has done what. I sure don't. One thing that might make thins a little difficult for us is that the Sox really might actually think that they still have their potential guys here already and they might. Although I doubt a Kimbrel return because I highly doubt that Boston would be willing to give him the years and money that he is looking for primarily because it would be a bad deal as opposed to our franchise being unwilling to hurdle financial barriers, you just never no. Whatever, you have to believe that our GM knows who is out there and that it is likely that he brings someone else in.

[cp176]

Did you feel this way when the Sox had unproven closers named Uehara and Papelbon?

 

Last year one of the best closers in the AL was Blake Treinen, who, if anything, had proven himself to be an ineffective closer in his previous attempt st the role.

 

 

I just want a good relief pitcher or two. That they are some sort of “proven closer” doesn’t need to be the priority, and it is possible Dombrowski feels the same way. There is plenty in his history as a GM that says so...

 

 

If you have enough "good" relievers, you will find the guy that you want to use at the end of the line. What I don't agree with is that we will potentially bring in a bunch of unknowns and hope that one of them becomes that next great one. I'm in a minority here in that I don't think that our bullpen really is all that bad. It won't take much to make it better. If we sat still and did nothing that would be a little unnerving, but I doubt that that happens.

[Bellhorn04]

Did you feel this way when the Sox had unproven closers named Uehara and Papelbon?

 

Last year one of the best closers in the AL was Blake Treinen, who, if anything, had proven himself to be an ineffective closer in his previous attempt st the role.

 

 

I just want a good relief pitcher or two. That they are some sort of “proven closer” doesn’t need to be the priority, and it is possible Dombrowski feels the same way. There is plenty in his history as a GM that says so...

 

If memory serves, it wasn't that long ago you were in favor of signing Ottavino and Familia. Am I misremembering?

[Bellhorn04]

Did you feel this way when the Sox had unproven closers named Uehara and Papelbon?

 

Last year one of the best closers in the AL was Blake Treinen, who, if anything, had proven himself to be an ineffective closer in his previous attempt st the role.

 

 

I just want a good relief pitcher or two. That they are some sort of “proven closer” doesn’t need to be the priority, and it is possible Dombrowski feels the same way. There is plenty in his history as a GM that says so...

 

Uehara and Papelbon were secondary options that worked out after the primary options had failed.

 

Papelbon was converted from a starter to a closer after Foulke washed out in 2005. They even used Schilling at closer for a while that year. Desperate times call for desperate measures and all that.

 

Circumstances are different now. We're a team with a monster payroll and a small window. I don't see the great harm in signing a guy like Britton or Ottavino or Robertson.

[S5Dewey]

Or maybe we could sign Kimbrel to a 5/[whatever it takes] with an opt out every year. We have a very small window and having him back could be what the team needs to get it over the hump.

 

The problem I see with these opt-outs is that they severely mortgage the future. Let's say that we do get a deal like that from Kimbrel and then Kimbrel, Price and JDM all leave at the same time. (Without looking it up I'm not sure that's possible, but bear with me). We're then left with lots of money to spend but needing a quality starter, a quality reliever, and a quality power hitter. That sound you heard was the window slamming shut. The next sound you heard was the team careening over a cliff.

 

These opt-outs may be the wave of the future for teams who want to target a certain time frame to make a run at a WSC but they're risky too. If the FO guesses wrong about a couple of these players and they don't perform as expected the team is stuck with their salaries when they don't opt out. It'll be interesting to see how these things work out.

[Bellhorn04]

Or maybe we could sign Kimbrel to a 5/[whatever it takes] with an opt out every year. We have a very small window and having him back could be what the team needs to get it over the hump.

 

The problem I see with these opt-outs is that they severely mortgage the future. Let's say that we do get a deal like that from Kimbrel and then Kimbrel, Price and JDM all leave at the same time. (Without looking it up I'm not sure that's possible, but bear with me). We're then left with lots of money to spend but needing a quality starter, a quality reliever, and a quality power hitter. That sound you heard was the window slamming shut. The next sound you heard was the team careening over a cliff.

 

These opt-outs may be the wave of the future for teams who want to target a certain time frame to make a run at a WSC but they're risky too. If the FO guesses wrong about a couple of these players and they don't perform as expected the team is stuck with their salaries when they don't opt out. It'll be interesting to see how these things work out.

 

Interesting idea but too risky as you say.

[S5Dewey]

Interesting idea but too risky as you say.

 

It's risky, but that's what we're already doing with JDM and Price. If DD and JH want to make one more run at it they may want to pursue that path, then reset after 2019 or 2020.

 

The good news is that we could then reset and keep most of our core (JBJ, Betts, XBo) and still be competitive - if you believe that being .500 during a rebuild is being competitive.

Edited December 29, 2018 by S5Dewey

[Bellhorn04]

It's risky, but that's what we're already doing with JDM and Price. If DD and JH want to make one more run at it they may want to pursue that path, then reset after 2019 or 2020.

 

That's true, but Kimbrel just doesn't seem like the guy you would want to take this kind of risk with right now. Not when you could sign a guy like Ottavino instead.

[S5Dewey]

To me, being .500 during rebuild is being competitive. I equate it to golf. I once heard someone say that anyone who can play bogey golf won't embarrass themselves no matter who they play with. When they're playing someone who's "scratch" or thereabouts they'll lose - but not lose any hole badly - and when they're playing the duffers they'll win. That's where I see the Sox during the rebuild - as bogey golfers.

 

Which is sort of appropriate given the nickname of our SS.

[Nick]

Or maybe we could sign Kimbrel to a 5/[whatever it takes] with an opt out every year. We have a very small window and having him back could be what the team needs to get it over the hump.

 

The problem I see with these opt-outs is that they severely mortgage the future. Let's say that we do get a deal like that from Kimbrel and then Kimbrel, Price and JDM all leave at the same time. (Without looking it up I'm not sure that's possible, but bear with me). We're then left with lots of money to spend but needing a quality starter, a quality reliever, and a quality power hitter. That sound you heard was the window slamming shut. The next sound you heard was the team careening over a cliff.

 

These opt-outs may be the wave of the future for teams who want to target a certain time frame to make a run at a WSC but they're risky too. If the FO guesses wrong about a couple of these players and they don't perform as expected the team is stuck with their salaries when they don't opt out. It'll be interesting to see how these things work out.

 

Price had one opt out and he declined. He's a Sox for next 4 years. His 4 years will run concurrently with Eovaldi's. E Rod has 3 years of arbitration remaining so he's under team control for next 3 years.

Edited December 29, 2018 by Nick

[S5Dewey]

That's true, but Kimbrel just doesn't seem like the guy you would want to take this kind of risk with right now. Not when you could sign a guy like Ottavino instead.

 

I haven't seen Ottavino throw. I know he had TJ surgery in 2017 and came back strong in 2018 but I get a little nervous when I see a team with several pitchers who've had that. TJ's aren't always successful long-term. Price has had it, Brasier's had it, and Sale's motion fairly screams, "I'm going to have elbow trouble sooner or later!!". Ottavino may be another good risk, but there IS a risk, especially when we already have two (or three) who may have arm trouble in the future.

 

All of that having been said, yeah, "O" would be my first choice.

[Bellhorn04]

I haven't seen Ottavino throw. I know he had TJ surgery in 2017 and came back strong in 2018 but I get a little nervous when I see a team with several pitchers who've had that. TJ's aren't always successful long-term. Price has had it, Brasier's had it, and Sale's motion fairly screams, "I'm going to have elbow trouble sooner or later!!".

 

You mean Eovaldi not Price, right?

 

Now that you mention all these candidates for arm trouble, it makes me think that keeping Durable Dick Porcello around might be kind of nice.

[notin]

Uehara and Papelbon were secondary options that worked out after the primary options had failed.

 

Papelbon was converted from a starter to a closer after Foulke washed out in 2005. They even used Schilling at closer for a while that year. Desperate times call for desperate measures and all that.

 

Circumstances are different now. We're a team with a monster payroll and a small window. I don't see the great harm in signing a guy like Britton or Ottavino or Robertson.

 

I don’t see the harm either. But last we heard it’s not in the budget.

 

Couple things - who cares if they were secondary options? Did they work out as closers? Also, as for the small window - it is Dombrowski’s job to keep that window open for as long as possible. Unlike a lot of people on this board, he might not be thinking “let’s go all in for 2019 and figure out 2020 when it gets here!!”

 

As much as I think most fans overhype the closer, at the very least they usually do sign short term contracts. I’d love for the Sox to bring in both Ottavino and Britton. (On those projected 3 year deals? Sign me up!) I just don’t see it happening. And while it’s possible that it might still happen, is it looking likely? And does it really make sense for this team? I will say, a lot of fans seem to want to live in a world where Henry buys their worries away and it’s sacririgious to suggest otherwise.

 

And I also don’t see it as the end of the window....

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t see the harm either. But last we heard it’s not in the budget.

 

Are you basing this on the rumors about trading someone to free up payroll for the bullpen?

[notin]

Are you basing this on the rumors about trading someone to free up payroll for the bullpen?

 

Yes among other things...

[Bellhorn04]

I will say, a lot of fans seem to want to live in a world where Henry buys their worries away and it’s sacririgious to suggest otherwise.

 

Henry made that world for us.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes among other things...

 

What other things?

[notin]

What other things?

 

Dombrowski’s decision to wait out the closer market.

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski’s decision to wait out the closer market.

 

But waiting it out isn't the same as being out of it.

[notin]

But waiting it out isn't the same as being out of it.

 

 

It is the first step.

 

Figure in the payroll situation, the listening to offers etc. The Plan doesn’t appear to be “All in for 2019 and let 2020 fall where it may!!”

 

And going heavy on the closer really could disagree with a long term plan here...

[Bellhorn04]

It is the first step.

 

Figure in the payroll situation, the listening to offers etc. The Plan doesn’t appear to be “All in for 2019 and let 2020 fall where it may!!”

 

And going heavy on the closer really could disagree with a long term plan here...

 

I do think that they're looking for a cheaper solution.

 

But I keep coming back to the Pearce signing. I can't believe they signed him and Eovaldi and then pulled out the calculators and went 'Dadgum it, there's no money left for the pen now!'

[notin]

K

I do think that they're looking for a cheaper solution.

 

But I keep coming back to the Pearce signing. I can't believe they signed him and Eovaldi and then pulled out the calculators and went 'Dadgum it, there's no money left for the pen now!'

 

 

Exactly.

 

Pearce was only signed for one year at bench money. He’s not really an impediment to signing a 4 year $60mill closer.

 

They’re bringing in a pitcher or two. I just think it won’t be Robertson/Ottavino/Britton.

 

I think they sign someone like Shawn Kelley or Brach and trade for another using Chavis/Dalbec (plus?)...

[moonslav59]

Even with the sarcasm here notin, I really do agree with you. Paying huge money in terms of years and dollars to a potential closer would not be a good call nor would it really be necessary. The but for me is that a good GM isn't going to pay for someone to come in and hope that it all turns out right. They aren't going to spend much time searching for a guy to get the job done. Whoever comes will be someone who has proven that they can actually pitch before the role is handed to them. You obviously know the names of most of the guys out there and who has done what. I sure don't. One thing that might make thins a little difficult for us is that the Sox really might actually think that they still have their potential guys here already and they might. Although I doubt a Kimbrel return because I highly doubt that Boston would be willing to give him the years and money that he is looking for primarily because it would be a bad deal as opposed to our franchise being unwilling to hurdle financial barriers, you just never no. Whatever, you have to believe that our GM knows who is out there and that it is likely that he brings someone else in.

 

Well said.

 

I wouldn't be surprised, if the guy DD brings in is not a big name or experienced "closer." It might be just a very good pitcher to add to the current mix of pitchers vying for the closer role.

 

We may roll the dice like this and save some money for a summer deal.

[moonslav59]

Uehara and Papelbon were secondary options that worked out after the primary options had failed.

 

Papelbon was converted from a starter to a closer after Foulke washed out in 2005. They even used Schilling at closer for a while that year. Desperate times call for desperate measures and all that.

 

Circumstances are different now. We're a team with a monster payroll and a small window. I don't see the great harm in signing a guy like Britton or Ottavino or Robertson.

 

You don't see any harm from the budget angle?

[moonslav59]

DD might have looked at the current closer market and how many are available through free agency and seen there will be a surplus avfter all the major openings are filled. The price may drop on whoever is leftover, and DD will swoop in at a bargain rate.

 

I don't see many big spending teams in need of a closer. Someone might be "left out."

 

If that doesn't materialize, DD will have a plan B or C, which would likely be a trade of Chavis or Dalbec plus another prospect or Swihart.

[dgalehouse]

For want of the cash , the closer was lost. For want of a closer , the game was lost . For want of a game , the series was lost. For want of a series, the pennant was lost . For want of a pennant , the kingdom was lost. The kingdom was lost . All for the want of some cash. Point is : To stay on top you have to take care of the details. My guess is that we sign Ottavino. While he doesn't have the track record and reputation of Kimbrel or Britton, he does have good stuff and wouldn't cost nearly as much. Edited December 29, 2018 by dgalehouse

[Bellhorn04]

You don't see any harm from the budget angle?

 

Well, I don't see the huge harm in signing a guy for 3 years and $30 million or something like that. I realize there will be tax on top of that.

 

I just think this team is obviously going for it in 2019, and the payroll is already massive, so I don't see the point in suddenly cheaping out completely on the pen.

 

If there was any intent to save tax this year, why on earth sign Pearce?

[moonslav59]

For want of the cash , the closer was lost. For want of a closer , the game was lost . For want of a game , the series was lost. For want of a series, the pennant was lost . For want of a pennant , the kingdom was lost. The kingdom was lost . All for the want of some cash. Point is : To stay on top you have to take care of the details. My guess is that we sign Ottavino. While he doesn't have the track record and reputation of Kimbrel or Britton, he does have good stuff and would not cost nearly as much.

 

Even Ottavino puts us over the $40M line, which doesn't mean we won't sign him. To me, it will be more about the years he gets.

 

Ottavino might end up being the best we can get through free agency for a somewhat limited cost, but free agency is not the only way to get solid RP'ers.

 

I doubt we look to trade Moreland or Nunez to free up the space for Ottavino, but that might be one way to stay under the line.

[moonslav59]

Well, I don't see the huge harm in signing a guy for 3 years and $30 million or something like that. I realize there will be tax on top of that.

 

I just think this team is obviously going for it in 2019, and the payroll is already massive, so I don't see the point in suddenly cheaping out completely on the pen.

 

If there was any intent to save tax this year, why on earth sign Pearce?

 

There's a higher tax and another drop of 10 slots for the next year's draft. That's a couple things.

 

The 2nd and third years at $10M is what really might be the biggest problem. We will be faced with many decisions concerning the budget, especially if we choose to reset after 2019 or 2020. $10M might not seem like much, but when we are scrambling to scrounge dollars to keep as many of our young stars, $10M might make as big difference.

 

The Pearce contract is over after 2019, so he has no affect on the choices after 2019 and 2020. Yes, his cost in 2019 might end up making us go over the $40M line, if we sign someone like Ottavino, but if that is the case, then my guess is the $40M line was not a big issue to begin with.

 

To me, it's not just about the tax and draft penalties for 2019, it's about 2020 and 2021, too.

 

[cp176]

Well said.

 

I wouldn't be surprised, if the guy DD brings in is not a big name or experienced "closer." It might be just a very good pitcher to add to the current mix of pitchers vying for the closer role.

 

We may roll the dice like this and save some money for a summer deal.

 

I think that you are absolutely right. There may be numerous guys out there who would be willing to change their current roles to play the closer role on this team. Kimbrel obviously is one of the best but I think the notion that the closer role cannot be filled very well by a decent starter who might want to take that role on is not accurate. We all saw first hand how 4 or 5 of our starting pitchers could have done that role and personally I think done it better than Kimbrel. DD for all we know may have already had discussions inside and outside of the organization with guys about filling that role.