And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Kimmi]

I think a lot of it a combination of the market waiting on Kimbrel signing and the Red Sox waiting to see if these guys' demands drop. There was a report, for example, that Robertson was looking for three years but the Red Sox were only willing to go up to two - perfectly reasonable and, by itself, not evidence of any new directive to slash payroll.

We'll see what happens in the next few weeks, but I feel zero worry or anxiety about our bullpen situation right now.

 

You are right. By itself, that is not evidence of any new directive. Given Dombrowski's history with the Red Sox, however, I tend to think that Henry is tightening the reigns a bit.

 

Except for the JD signing last year, Dombrowski has acted relatively early in the offseason. When there is a player that Dombrowski wants, he doesn't sit around and wait for the market, including the trade market, to come to him. He acted quickly with Price, Kimbrel, and Sale, He also acted quickly with Moreland, Pearce, and Eovaldi.

 

I'm just speculating, of course.

[Kimmi]

My take is that DD has a limit.It might not be a strict "don't go over the $40M line" limit, but I think he will try to stay under or very close to that line. The only exception, in my opinion, is if he can get a solid closer or RP'er on a 1 year deal.

 

While it does not seem probable that any solid RP'er might sign a 1 year deal, if a few are left late in the signing period, maybe one takes a big paycheck for one year as a way to reset his value by hoping for a big and visible season with the 2019 champions.

 

I don't think the limit is so much for this year, but more in terms of how it will affect the next two years.

[Kimmi]

It would be foolish to try and defend the championship by going cheap on the bullpen. I just don't get that. The pen is too important. You don't have to bust the budget to sign Kimbrel or Britton. But you have to at least get a quality guy like Ottavino or Robertson. ( Actually, I am not too keen on Robertson. ) I can't believe that we can't afford to do this much.

 

Relax Denny. I assure you that you will be happy with the bullpen that Dombrowski constructs for us. Though it just might involve Robertson.

[Kimmi]

Just to clarify. When I speak of the "cliff" I am referring to a period when we finish second, play above .500 ball and still compete for a Wild Card. I am not referring to an Ben-like abyss.

 

The cliff is real.

 

When I speak of the cliff, I'm not referring to where a team actually finishes. I'm referring to how well a team is projected to do. Random factors, either good or bad, do not affect the cliff.

 

Entering the season, if the Sox are projected to make the playoffs, it is not a cliff year, regardless of what happens. If the Sox are not projected to make the playoffs, then it is a cliff year, regardless of what happens.

[moonslav59]

The cliff is real.

 

When I speak of the cliff, I'm not referring to where a team actually finishes. I'm referring to how well a team is projected to do. Random factors, either good or bad, do not affect the cliff.

 

Entering the season, if the Sox are projected to make the playoffs, it is not a cliff year, regardless of what happens. If the Sox are not projected to make the playoffs, then it is a cliff year, regardless of what happens.

 

That's how I see it.

 

To me, if a reset is in order, either after 2019 or 2020, then the plan for 2019 should try and keep the "cliff years" to a minimum pr 1 to 2 years. That would likely mean we only acquire players who will be cost effective in 2-3 years or have just 1-2 years of team control left. That would likely mean we don't sign a top RP'er for 3 or more years, unless we plan on trading players before the reset year.

 

If we traded Bogey for prospects this winter, some here would call for DD's firing.

 

It's not a simple choice.

[Kimmi]

They’re also not played by general managers.

 

And really, did anyone expect the 2012 and 2014 teams to do so poorly? The Sox were very good in 2014 and for most of 2011...

 

The GM in 2012, 2014, and 2015 did his job, which is to put together a contending team on paper.

 

And when I say 'on paper', it's not just in the eyes of the computer models. It's also in the eyes of the 'expert analysts' and people who are or were very much involved in the game.

 

I really like our chances of not only making the playoffs this year, but also of repeating as World Series champs. I think almost everyone agrees. If Mookie and JD hit a brick wall for some reason and the Sox don't make the playoffs, are we going to blame Dombrowski for doing a terrible job?

[Kimmi]

Sometimes the general manager has to wear it.

 

Ben gets great credit for 2013, as he should, but there were some amazing overperformance by a number of players on that team. In 2014 everything turned around in the other direction. Shane Victorino might be the poster boy for what happened.

 

If Ben gets great credit for 2013 he also has to wear the results of 2014 and 2015. That's how I see it, anyway.

 

When you look at the history of the team since 2002, generally speaking the only years where the team fell vastly short of pre-season expectations were the Cherington years.

 

That cannot be blamed on the GM.

[Kimmi]

That's how I see it.

 

To me, if a reset is in order, either after 2019 or 2020, then the plan for 2019 should try and keep the "cliff years" to a minimum pr 1 to 2 years. That would likely mean we only acquire players who will be cost effective in 2-3 years or have just 1-2 years of team control left. That would likely mean we don't sign a top RP'er for 3 or more years, unless we plan on trading players before the reset year.

 

If we traded Bogey for prospects this winter, some here would call for DD's firing.

 

It's not a simple choice.

 

There is no simple solution. Something has to give.

 

Not to beat a dead horse, but this is what happens with the 'win at any cost' philosophy. Fortunately for us, it worked. Imagine if we were facing the same situation with no championships to show for it.

[moonslav59]

There is no simple solution. Something has to give.

 

Not to beat a dead horse, but this is what happens with the 'win at any cost' philosophy. Fortunately for us, it worked. Imagine if we were facing the same situation with no championships to show for it.

 

It was a big gamble, and it paid off. I kind of feel like we're playing on house money now. 2019 is an extra gift of us having a good chance to repeat.

 

I'm fine with a cliff as we reset, but I want to keep it short, if possible.

[Kimmi]

It was a big gamble, and it paid off. I kind of feel like we're playing on house money now. 2019 is an extra gift of us having a good chance to repeat.

 

I'm fine with a cliff as we reset, but I want to keep it short, if possible.

 

I am not fine with the cliff, but oh well.

 

We have the ring.

[Jack Flap]

I go away for a little while and suddenly a700hitter believes in the "cliff." LOL

[moonslav59]

I am not fine with the cliff, but oh well.

 

We have the ring.

 

I would not have been "fine" had we not won a ring.

[dgalehouse]

We need to remember that not everyone is a sophisticated fan who studies the advanced stats and various projections and budget issues. These other fans are the ones the team needs to fill Fenway and watch on TV. And they are paying plenty. They are paying many of the bills. They want a team that has a chance to win. They don't want to hear about resets , cliffs , bridge years , etc. Call them spoiled if you want , but they are a good part of the fan base. And ownership needs to remember that.

[dgalehouse]

I would not have been "fine" had we not won a ring.

 

A ring is important to us. It is also important to ownership. How much additional revenue does it mean ? We don't know, but it's probably a lot. Not to mention the increased value of a championship franchise.

[moonslav59]

We need to remember that not everyone is a sophisticated fan who studies the advanced stats and various projections and budget issues. These other fans are the ones the team needs to fill Fenway and watch on TV. And they are paying plenty. They are paying many of the bills. They want a team that has a chance to win. They don't want to hear about resets , cliffs , bridge years , etc. Call them spoiled if you want , but they are a good part of the fan base. And ownership needs to remember that.

 

Yes, and they come back, even after 3 last place finishes in a 4 year stretch,

[dgalehouse]

He's baaaaack . Carson Smith that is . Well , well. You never know.

[moonslav59]

He's baaaaack . Carson Smith that is . Well , well. You never know.

 

Good signing for a minor league deal.

 

There is some hope with this one.

[a700hitter]

The cliff is real.

 

When I speak of the cliff, I'm not referring to where a team actually finishes. I'm referring to how well a team is projected to do. Random factors, either good or bad, do not affect the cliff.

 

Entering the season, if the Sox are projected to make the playoffs, it is not a cliff year, regardless of what happens. If the Sox are not projected to make the playoffs, then it is a cliff year, regardless of what happens.

Projections don't mean nearly as much to me as the performance on the field. If the Red Sox finish in last place, and there are no meaningful games after July, it is completely irrelevant to me if they were projected to finish first. Would that be an anomaly? Possibly, but 3 last place finishes is a pattern and a bad record unmatched in my lifetime. Edited December 31, 2018 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

I go away for a little while and suddenly a700hitter believes in the "cliff." LOL

Just playing to the base, keeping the peace, assuming arguendo or whatever. LOL!!! The point is whether or not it comes, getting a top closer in 2019 will have nothing to do with it.

[a700hitter]

Nice save.

 

 

No one is buying you think of dropping down to second place team as a “cliff”....

Maybe 3rd place for one year. In my lifetime, the most sub .500 finishes in a short span were 2012, 2014, and 2015. My cliff would be a .500 team.

[notin]

Maybe 3rd place for one year. In my lifetime, the most sub .500 finishes in a short span were 2012, 2014, and 2015. My cliff would be a .500 team.

 

I’m so sorry to hear you were not alive from 1992 through 1994 aka The Butch Hobson Era. (Actually it’s understandable if you just repressed the memory of those years like most of us did.)

 

The Rays could have won 100 games and still come in third in the AL East last year. Third place in the AL East is not necessarily a shameful finish right now, despite how disappointing it might be.

[a700hitter]

I’m so sorry to hear you were not alive from 1992 through 1994 aka The Butch Hobson Era. (Actually it’s understandable if you just repressed the memory of those years like most of us did.)

 

The Rays could have won 100 games and still come in third in the AL East last year. Third place in the AL East is not necessarily a shameful finish right now, despite how disappointing it might be.

1994 was wiped from the record books. No World Series, playoffs etc. But yes, Butch Hobson's reign was awful, and even as bad as he was, he finished last only once. In the combined 7 seasons of Hobson's Reign of Horror and Benny's years, the Red Sox had more sub .500 seasons (6) than in the other 45 years that I have been a fan of the team. Edited December 31, 2018 by a700hitter

[cp176]

They’re also not played by general managers.

 

And really, did anyone expect the 2012 and 2014 teams to do so poorly? The Sox were very good in 2014 and for most of 2011...

 

pretty much what I said notin. I'm sure the GM did what he thought was the right thing to do.

[Bellhorn04]

That cannot be blamed on the GM.

 

I disagree, and others do as well, obviously. The results of 2014 and 2015 cost Ben his job.

[cp176]

We need to remember that not everyone is a sophisticated fan who studies the advanced stats and various projections and budget issues. These other fans are the ones the team needs to fill Fenway and watch on TV. And they are paying plenty. They are paying many of the bills. They want a team that has a chance to win. They don't want to hear about resets , cliffs , bridge years , etc. Call them spoiled if you want , but they are a good part of the fan base. And ownership needs to remember that.

 

I'm pretty much one of those fans I guess. Falling off a cliff to me, implies something somewhat catastrophic. I doubt seriously that that happens. I seriously am wondering if the people who have been promoting the cliff concept will be upset if it doesn't actually occur simply because they were not proven right. For most people it is a gross misuse of a term unless you truly believe that we will be entering a season with virtually no chance of success. I'm not one of the "bright" people who claim to sort of know what JH must have said to DD about budgeting so I will just continue muddling along in my space and believe that as long as Henry owns the franchise we will be competitive and I will have a team worth watching as we move along. Oh well - sometimes ignorance is bliss - right?

[Bellhorn04]

Good signing for a minor league deal.

 

There is some hope with this one.

 

I like it. DD is doing some diligent dumpster diving this offseason LOL

[cp176]

He's baaaaack . Carson Smith that is . Well , well. You never know.

 

Once again a good move I think. Carson Smith likely will be very motivated to resurrect his career. I bet he has a real sit down meeting with Alex Cora though before he steps on to the big field for the Sox. He didn't leave in a very good light.

[Bellhorn04]

Bleacher Report Projections:

 

2012: 88-74 (3rd place)

(Grantland: 87-75 3rd)

 

I'll come right out and say it: The Red Sox are not good enough to win the American League East.

For all the runs the Sox are going to score, they have no assurances that their pitching is going to be any better than it was in 2011. Even if everything goes well, the ceiling for this pitching staff is pretty low.

Pitching is exactly why the Sox don't measure up against the Rays and the hated Yankees. Both of them have deep, talented starting rotations, and it must be noted that the Yankees have an outstanding bullpen. The two of them are the teams to beat in the AL East. The best the Sox can hope for is to land one of the two wild-card spots. It's possible, but their main competition will be the Los Angeles Angels, another team with better pitching than the Sox.

 

2014: 91-61 (1st)

(Grantland: 89-73 2nd)

 

The Boston Red Sox had a quiet winter but return the nucleus of a team that dominated the regular season and captured a World Series in October. A step back from excellence could occur, but not enough to knock this squad below the 90-win range. In a division without a truly great team, that could be a formula for a return trip to the postseason.

 

2015: 90-72 (1st)

(Grantland 87-75 1st)

 

The additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, as well as a full season from Mookie Betts, could give them the highest-scoring offense in the league.

What they lack in front-line pitching they should be able to make up for in overall pitching depth, as there are a number of young arms ready to make an impact. They're a risky pick, but if they can even put up league-average production on the mound, they should have the offense to carry them.

 

 

To be fair and complete you need to put up the 2013 projections to see how the results compared.

[Kimmi]

I go away for a little while and suddenly a700hitter believes in the "cliff." LOL

 

LOL Jack.

 

Little known secret. He has always believed in the cliff.

[Kimmi]

I would not have been "fine" had we not won a ring.

 

It was a gamble, one that had a roughly 15% chance of working out once we made it to the playoffs.

 

Dave was lucky!