And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Bellhorn04]

I doubt Henry adopts the "let's go for it one more time" attitude. That strikes me as more of a pipe dream from the fans than the logic employed by a billionaire businessman.

 

a) Henry permitted the team to go more than 40 million over the threshold in 2018, and they are already close to being there again this year. The man is not averse to paying some tax.

He knows the closing of the window might happen after this season, with Sale, Porcello, Bogaerts and JDM possibly all gone.

c) He's 69 years old. Sometimes age can play a role in how we look at things.

 

All that said I don't expect him to throw all economic concerns to the wind by any means. But I certainly won't be surprised if he authorizes the signing of a guy like Ottavino.

[moonslav59]

Henry is indeed shutting the door on spending money. He will be looking to reset the tax penalty, likely next year.

 

Otherwise, we would have probably already signed our closer, and it may have even been Kimbrel with his 4 year deal.

 

I have thought we'd look to reset after 2020, but more and more, I'm thinking it might be after 2019.

[oldtimer]

Thirty may not be old, but 30 at the beginning of a long term contract is.

 

My comment was a tease but you took it seriously.

[Bellhorn04]

I have thought we'd look to reset after 2020, but more and more, I'm thinking it might be after 2019.

 

It might be, but I wouldn't bet a bundle on it. There is a lot to play out over the next year.

[moonslav59]

It might be, but I wouldn't bet a bundle on it. There is a lot to play out over the next year.

 

I thought maybe winning a ring might hasten the reset year, but it's hard to choose to rapidly dismantle such a great team.

 

One big plus about resetting after 2019 is that we could probably pay Betts after 2020 and not be in the max tax rate territory.

[cp176]

I don't believe that DD is done for one second. Maybe perhaps good old common sense is being used here. I think that JH will want to win each year just as much as he has every other year. Signing older players to long term contracts doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. The fact that a lot of money has not just been thrown around might even mean that it isn't a good idea just to waste it. Our team as is really isn't that bad folks. If you believe that DD isn't going to sign anyone else, I think that you are deluding yourselves. It might even be Kimbrel at a reasonable contract rate. None of us know.

[moonslav59]

I don't believe that DD is done for one second. Maybe perhaps good old common sense is being used here. I think that JH will want to win each year just as much as he has every other year. Signing older players to long term contracts doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. The fact that a lot of money has not just been thrown around might even mean that it isn't a good idea just to waste it. Our team as is really isn't that bad folks. If you believe that DD isn't going to sign anyone else, I think that you are deluding yourselves. It might even be Kimbrel at a reasonable contract rate. None of us know.

 

I'm positive DD is not done, but it might not be through a "signing."

 

It remains to be seen if the $40M line is a hard cap for DD or not for 2019, but my guess is, he's been directed to try and stay under or not go over by much.

 

If my numbers are right, and we'll have about $5M to spend and still be under the line, I don't see a big signing in the works, unless we dump some salary.

 

I also think, DD will want some flex money to spend mid season. It's what he's done very well at for several years, now. I could see us trading for a solid RP'er without adding any to the budget. That would leave us $5M for summer deals.

 

If we are able to trade Nunez or Moreland, maybe we could sign a RP'er for $6-8M, have a little left for the summer and also trade for a decent RP'er.

 

[notin]

I don't believe that DD is done for one second. Maybe perhaps good old common sense is being used here. I think that JH will want to win each year just as much as he has every other year. Signing older players to long term contracts doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. The fact that a lot of money has not just been thrown around might even mean that it isn't a good idea just to waste it. Our team as is really isn't that bad folks. If you believe that DD isn't going to sign anyone else, I think that you are deluding yourselves. It might even be Kimbrel at a reasonable contract rate. None of us know.

 

 

I doubt Kimbrel signs for less than Joe Kelly did, and anything above that appears to be out of the budget.

 

But there are still plenty of good relievers available on the free agent market, and the Sox have a surplus or two to deal from. I think he can add two good relievers to this team...

[Bellhorn04]

I doubt Kimbrel signs for less than Joe Kelly did, and anything above that appears to be out of the budget.

 

It's premature to say that with Kimbrel, Britton, Robertson and Ottavino all still out there.

[notin]

It's premature to say that with Kimbrel, Britton, Robertson and Ottavino all still out there.

 

Really?

 

If I set the over/under for Kimbrel's next contract at 3 yrs/$25mill, where is your bet?

[Bellhorn04]

Really?

 

If I set the over/under for Kimbrel's next contract at 3 yrs/$25mill, where is your bet?

 

Over, of course. But I'm not really getting your point.

 

Mine is, how do we know the Sox are passing on all of the 4 guys I mentioned until those guys sign elsewhere?

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe what Henry and DD decided was they couldn't re-sign both Kimbrel and Kelly, they were only going to spend on one closer type.

[cp176]

Over, of course. But I'm not really getting your point.

 

Mine is, how do we know the Sox are passing on all of the 4 guys I mentioned until those guys sign elsewhere?

 

We don't know Bell. A lot of chatter about what JH is willing to pay for whatever. I don't believe that anyone will be signed to a silly contract but that does not mean that there is any cap to what JH is willing or apt to spend. We just don't know. Fun to guess I guess.

[jacksonianmarch]

First of all, Steven Wright expects to be healthy for spring training and in that case would be next in line to start. If we need to move Eovaldi to closer, it's quite possible that Wright pitches at a high level.

 

Second, I'm really not sold on Kimbrel's continued success. If the Sox do sign him, they need to go as few years as possible.

 

Third, I also think it's possible that at some point Chris Sale transitions to closer. He just doesn't seem to have starting pitcher stamina. He looked great in the last inning of the World Series.

 

Fourth, if Barnes or Brasier does make a successful closer, then we need to give larger setup roles to Johnson, Velazquez, Wright, and Workman. I think it's quite possible they can be effective at middle relief.

 

Steven Wright expected to be ready last year. He had the same surgery as Pedroia yet needed another surgery in November to clean it out. He’s not likely to contribute anything

[jacksonianmarch]

And anyone thinking DD is done hasn’t followed his career. He has always had a proven closer. If he cannot add one via FA, he will empty the prospect coffers and get one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a trade if he’s at his cap

[notin]

Over, of course. But I'm not really getting your point.

 

Mine is, how do we know the Sox are passing on all of the 4 guys I mentioned until those guys sign elsewhere?

 

Well, if the budget is allowed to go up from the current rumors, then anything can happen.

 

But if we are as limited as some think, these 4 guys are not coming to Boston. Unless there is a subsequent salary-clearing deal like Porcello or Bogaerts. But honestly, I would just assume keep both Porcello and Bogaerts and try to get a closer another way...

[notin]

And anyone thinking DD is done hasn’t followed his career. He has always had a proven closer. If he cannot add one via FA, he will empty the prospect coffers and get one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a trade if he’s at his cap

 

Anyone who has followed DD's career knows the closer actually is the one position he tends to take chances with. The guy has put together rosters where the closer role has included names like Braden Looper, Todd Jones, Fernando Rodney, Jose Valverde, Joaquin Benoit, and Joe Nathan (at age 39).

 

But I do expect him to make a trade, because THAT is what he does. I expect either Michael Chavis or Bobby Dalbec (or both) to be traded, because both are among the Sox best prospects and the Sox need neither since the current MLB third baseman is younger than both of them...

[moonslav59]

...But I do expect him to make a trade, because THAT is what he does. I expect either Michael Chavis or Bobby Dalbec (or both) to be traded, because both are among the Sox best prospects and the Sox need neither since the current MLB third baseman is younger than both of them...

 

I would bet we get a closer via trade.

[Bellhorn04]

I would bet we get a closer via trade.

 

Which closer are you thinking?

[moonslav59]

Which closer are you thinking?

 

Probably not someone a lot of people here want or think is good enough or proven enough.

 

I have no names off the top of my head. We may get someone with little closer experience, but with a high K rate and lots of upside. We may get someone who is experienced but not with a great record.

 

Then, we keep some flex money to trade for a closer mid season, if the one(s) we try don't work out.

[dgalehouse]

I would bet we get a closer via trade.

 

I'm not too sure which closers might be available in a trade. And even the free agent market is starting to thin out , although there are still a few left out there. I don't think we should wait too long.

[Bellhorn04]

Probably not someone a lot of people here want or think is good enough or proven enough.

 

I have no names off the top of my head. We may get someone with little closer experience, but with a high K rate and lots of upside. We may get someone who is experienced but not with a great record.

 

Then, we keep some flex money to trade for a closer mid season, if the one(s) we try don't work out.

 

Trading for an unproven closer seems kind of an iffy way to go.

 

To me it doesn't make much sense to sign Steve Pearce, who I love to have but who is somewhat of a luxury piece, and to have that prevent them from being able to sign a closer.

[notin]

Which closer are you thinking?

 

Milwaukee is a possibility with either Jeffress (one year remaining) or Knebel (rough year last year, demoted to minors, might or might not be available). San Fran’s Will Smith should be available, as he’s entering his walk year. Mychael Givens is a possibility. Kirby Yates is reportedly available...

[dgalehouse]

Milwaukee is a possibility with either Jeffress (one year remaining) or Knebel (rough year last year, demoted to minors, might or might not be available). San Fran’s Will Smith should be available, as he’s entering his walk year. Mychael Givens is a possibility. Kirby Yates is reportedly available...

 

Or we could sign the rag armed Joe Schmegegge , who washed out / aged out of the Independent Pecos League last season . He basically sucks , but he would come real cheap. We could save a bundle and not further decimate the farm . Worse comes to worst , we could demand that our highly paid starters pitch complete games . Maybe go to a six or seven man rotation to appease them.

[fxkatt]

Of course, the only problem with a trade is... that the production of our latest traded-for-relievers turned out to be less than pea-sized.

[notin]

Or we could sign the rag armed Joe Schmegegge , who washed out / aged out of the Independent Pecos League last season . He basically sucks , but he would come real cheap. We could save a bundle and not further decimate the farm . Worse comes to worst , we could demand that our highly paid starters pitch complete games . Maybe go to a six or seven man rotation to appease them.

 

 

Or.... crazy thought! We could quit pretending that a high salary guaranteed a good reliever and maybe notice that Smith, Jeffress, Yates, and Givens were all better than Kimbrel last year. And Keone Kela - whom I forgot to mention but is also likely available- was only slightly less effective.

 

But I guess some people expect only high priced players who will make more difficult to impossible to retain the core like Betts and insist John Henry owes it to them to spend more. Maybe the Sox should give Kimbrel his 6 year / $100 mill and let EVERYONE walk. That way, in 2024, we know who will handle the ninth inning. As for who handles the other eight innings or who hits to ever get a lead, well, who cares? After all, we’d have a closer.

 

None of the guys I mentioned were untried as closers. But do you remember who the last “unproven” closers for Boston were? Some guys named Papelbon and Uehara. I think they worked out all right, even without all that “closing experience” and without being the highest paid in the game...

Edited December 29, 2018 by notin

[notin]

Of course, the only problem with a trade is... that the production of our latest traded-for-relievers turned out to be less than pea-sized.

 

By that logic, the Sox should also stop drafting pitchers completely...

[moonslav59]

Trading for an unproven closer seems kind of an iffy way to go.

 

To me it doesn't make much sense to sign Steve Pearce, who I love to have but who is somewhat of a luxury piece, and to have that prevent them from being able to sign a closer.

 

Depends what our future (and current) budget plans are. We obviously are not resetting this winter, so any one year deals are fine, unless the $40M line is set.

 

I'm think we try to stay near the $40M line, like this year, and if tghat's the case, we won't spend big on a closer, and trading for one or doing without one seem like the most likely choices.

 

[notin]

Trading for an unproven closer seems kind of an iffy way to go.

 

Did you feel this way when the Sox had unproven closers named Uehara and Papelbon?

 

Last year one of the best closers in the AL was Blake Treinen, who, if anything, had proven himself to be an ineffective closer in his previous attempt st the role.

 

 

I just want a good relief pitcher or two. That they are some sort of “proven closer” doesn’t need to be the priority, and it is possible Dombrowski feels the same way. There is plenty in his history as a GM that says so...

[moonslav59]

Did you feel this way when the Sox had unproven closers named Uehara and Papelbon?

 

Last year one of the best closers in the AL was Blake Treinen, who, if anything, had proven himself to be an ineffective closer in his previous attempt st the role.

 

 

I just want a good relief pitcher or two. That they are some sort of “proven closer” doesn’t need to be the priority, and it is possible Dombrowski feels the same way. There is plenty in his history as a GM that says so...

 

I totally agree, but we did not trade for Uehara to be our closer. We thought we had an established closer in Hanrahan and also Andrew Bailey.

 

My point about trading for someone who might not be an established closer, but who might fit the bill is not something easy to do, and we could guess wrong, but it might be our best chance- assuming we can't go way over the $40M line or tie up big money in a contract over 1 to 2 years.