And the off season begins (2018-19)

[dgalehouse]

This is getting ridiculous. Carl Edwards Jr. is a young, not yet arbitration eligible pitcher with good results and very good potential. Jesse Chavez is a 35 year old , much traveled ham and egger who has a career ERA of 4.45 , and pitched a total of 39 innings for the Cubs . These are the kinds of examples one should use to prove a point ? I'm sure anyone who wants to take the time could find guys who are low paid , yet have very good fWars at any position on the field. What does it prove ? We all know that you can sometimes find a good bargain in the basement. However , you usually will get what you paid for . That pretty much goes for relief pitchers , closers , starting pitchers , position players , autos , washers , dryers , refrigerators and most anything else . The exceptions to this only serve to prove the rule. The Red Sox are not the World Series champs by acting like small market, small time Charlies. Let's not start now . We don't want to have a championship caliber team only to have some low cost jabroni coming in from the bullpen in the ninth inning. Edited December 27, 2018 by dgalehouse

[moonslav59]

This is getting ridiculous. Carl Edwards Jr. is a young, not yet arbitration eligible pitcher with good results and very good potential. Jesse Chavez is a 35 year old , much traveled ham and egger who has a career ERA of 4.45 , and pitched a total of 39 innings for the Cubs . These are the kinds of examples one should use to prove a point ? I'm sure anyone who wants to take the time could find guys who are low paid , yet have very good fWars at any position on the field. What does it prove ? We all know that you can sometimes find a good bargain in the basement. However , you usually will get what you paid for . That pretty much goes for relief pitchers , closers , starting pitchers , position players , autos , washers , dryers , refrigerators and most anything else . The exceptions to this only serve to prove the rule. The Red Sox are not the World Series champs by acting like small market, small time Charlies. Let's not start now . We don't want to have a championship caliber team only to have some low cost jabroni coming in from the bullpen in the ninth inning.

 

We're already outspending the next team by over $25M, so even if they don't get a solid closer, nobody can say we are going "small market" in 2019.

 

WE just might choose to spend our mega millions in other areas.

[dgalehouse]

We're already outspending the next team by over $25M, so even if they don't get a solid closer, nobody can say we are going "small market" in 2019.

 

WE just might choose to spend our mega millions in other areas.

I have duly noted that there are a number of fans who feel that closer is the area where it is okay to economize . Kind of like having a multi million dollar mansion without much in the way of smoke or carbon monoxide detectors, much less a sprinkler system. I just don't think that is very wise . We'll see what happens.

[moonslav59]

I have duly noted that there are a number of fans who feel that closer is the area where it is okay to economize . Kind of like having a multi million dollar mansion without much in the way of smoke or carbon monoxide detectors, much less a sprinkler system. I just don't think that is very wise . We'll see what happens.

 

I'm not saying this was ever the choice, but if you could have only 1 player between Eovaldi & Kimbrel, who would you choose.

[Nick]

I'm not saying this was ever the choice, but if you could have only 1 player between Eovaldi & Kimbrel, who would you choose.

 

Very good point, Moon.

 

Eovaldi is signed for 4 years with NO OPT out. I have not read his contract and therefore I am not aware of performance bonuses. And also keep in mind that his AAV and cash outlay is the same.

 

What I'm getting at is this. I get it that he wants to start. However, I feel comfortable in saying that he will close if he's asked. What the hell does it matter financially either way, start or close?. He's paid the same amount. He's at least three years away from free agency at the close of 2019 season. He has plenty of time to build up "starter money"over the remaining three years of his contract.

 

I doubt it will come to this. I think DD will sign a closer. But Eovaldi will be asked to close if everything falls apart in first half of 2019. And if he does close, it will only be until summer trade deadline when DD will trade for a closer. Who knows, hell it may be Price who will be asked to close in an emergency.

 

For some guys on this team, (I'm thinking someone like Pedroia), winning is all that matters. I put Eovaldi and Price in that same category. They all have long term contracts. They're playing to win. Not that Porcello and Sale won't give 100%, they are pitching for next contract. This is their last year.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Nick

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s not like DD signed Eovaldi as some superfluous Swiss Army knife. He’s signed to be your 4th or 5th starter. If you shift him to the pen, you’ll need to find a fourth or fifth starter. Yes, you have Johnson and Velasquez, but those guys are middling at best with almost no upside. The Yanks won 100 games last year and by most accounts will be upgraded come ST. You can not afford to have your contingency plan be pulling a starter out and replacing him with a guy who’s gonna be meh.

 

I know most people realize that bringing in relief guys on the FA market will clog up the payroll for 2020 and beyond. But 2019 is the final year of this window before major losses are incurred. You don’t throw that away on the closer slot. DD will get someone and it won’t be a no name.

[moonslav59]

Very good point, Moon.

 

Eovaldi is signed for 4 years with NO OPT out. I have not read his contract and therefore I am not aware of performance bonuses. And also keep in mind that his AAV and cash outlay is the same.

 

What I'm getting at is this. I get it that he wants to start. However, I feel comfortable in saying that he will close if he's asked. What the hell does it matter financially either way, start or close?. He's paid the same amount. He's at least three years away from free agency at the close of 2019 season. He has plenty of time to build up "starter money"over the remaining three years of his contract.

 

I doubt it will come to this. I think DD will sign a closer. But Eovaldi will be asked to close if everything falls apart in first half of 2019. And if he does close, it will only be until summer trade deadline when DD will trade for a closer. Who knows, hell it may be Price who will be asked to close in an emergency.

 

For some guys on this team, (I'm thinking someone like Pedroia), winning is all that matters. I put Eovaldi and Price in that same category. They all have long term contracts. They're playing to win. Not that Porcello and Sale won't give 100%, they are pitching for next contract. This is their last year.

 

I wasn't really asking to compare them as closers, but if Eovaldi ends up there (maybe for the playoffs), I'd be okay with the idea, assuming our other starters are healthy and solid.

 

I was more asking about an either-or choice: If we signed Kimbrel, would we prefer him over having Johnson/Velazquez as our 5th starter, instead of our 6th starter.

[kenmeister]

Isn't Steven Wright ahead of Johnson & Velazquez in starter depth?

[Bellhorn04]

Isn't Steven Wright ahead of Johnson & Velazquez in starter depth?

 

If he's healthy.

[notin]

I have duly noted that there are a number of fans who feel that closer is the area where it is okay to economize . Kind of like having a multi million dollar mansion without much in the way of smoke or carbon monoxide detectors, much less a sprinkler system. I just don't think that is very wise . We'll see what happens.

 

Apparently Dombrowski is among them....

[dgalehouse]

Apparently Dombrowski is among them....

 

We shall see .

[notin]

This is getting ridiculous. Carl Edwards Jr. is a young, not yet arbitration eligible pitcher with good results and very good potential. Jesse Chavez is a 35 year old , much traveled ham and egger who has a career ERA of 4.45 , and pitched a total of 39 innings for the Cubs . These are the kinds of examples one should use to prove a point ? I'm sure anyone who wants to take the time could find guys who are low paid , yet have very good fWars at any position on the field. What does it prove ? We all know that you can sometimes find a good bargain in the basement. However , you usually will get what you paid for . That pretty much goes for relief pitchers , closers , starting pitchers , position players , autos , washers , dryers , refrigerators and most anything else . The exceptions to this only serve to prove the rule. The Red Sox are not the World Series champs by acting like small market, small time Charlies. Let's not start now . We don't want to have a championship caliber team only to have some low cost jabroni coming in from the bullpen in the ninth inning.

 

So if the Sox used Matt Barnes as closer, why would that be so bad?

 

Sure, you can say he was inconsistent last year. But so was Kimbrel, especially in the second half.

 

And the “you get what you pay for” argument might fall on deaf ears to a team still carrying Pablo Sandoval. In fact, at some point nearly all free agents defy that logic.

 

Not to mention the argument against Edwards (yes he’s in arb years, but so are several Sox pitchers) and Chavez (yes he threw 39IP, but fWAR is a cumulative stat) aren’t really good arguments. If Chavez hit 30 HRs in 100 ABs, would you argue “but it’s only 100 ABs!!!”

[dgalehouse]

I'm not saying this was ever the choice, but if you could have only 1 player between Eovaldi & Kimbrel, who would you choose.

 

That is difficult to answer , and it really never should come down to a choice like that. Nothing is more important than a top of the rotation pitcher . I was one of those who was happy we acquired Eovaldi. And I'm glad we re signed him. He made a ton of fans last October. However, let's not go crazy and anoint him the next Nolan Ryan just yet. His track record is not even remotely as impressive as Kimbrel's. I happen to value the closer position more than some others on here do. And it doesn't have to be Kimbrel. I think Zach Britton , for one , would be a good alternative. But I do not like the idea of rolling the dice and going with an unproven reliever in this important role. If you have the money for other areas , then find the money for this one too.

[dgalehouse]

So if the Sox used Matt Barnes as closer, why would that be so bad?

 

Sure, you can say he was inconsistent last year. But so was Kimbrel, especially in the second half.

 

And the “you get what you pay for” argument might fall on deaf ears to a team still carrying Pablo Sandoval. In fact, at some point nearly all free agents defy that logic.

 

Not to mention the argument against Edwards (yes he’s in arb years, but so are several Sox pitchers) and Chavez (yes he threw 39IP, but fWAR is a cumulative stat) aren’t really good arguments. If Chavez hit 30 HRs in 100 ABs, would you argue “but it’s only 100 ABs!!!”

 

1 - I think giving the closer position to Matt Barnes , with his 4.14 career ERA and a total of two saves would be an interesting experiment. And one fraught with danger. 2 - Sad as it is , there is no use crying over spilled Sandoval . We have to let it go. 3- I am sorry, but I just don't follow your logic in the Chavez examples.

[Bellhorn04]

This is getting ridiculous. Carl Edwards Jr. is a young, not yet arbitration eligible pitcher with good results and very good potential. Jesse Chavez is a 35 year old , much traveled ham and egger who has a career ERA of 4.45 , and pitched a total of 39 innings for the Cubs . These are the kinds of examples one should use to prove a point ? I'm sure anyone who wants to take the time could find guys who are low paid , yet have very good fWars at any position on the field. What does it prove ? We all know that you can sometimes find a good bargain in the basement. However , you usually will get what you paid for . That pretty much goes for relief pitchers , closers , starting pitchers , position players , autos , washers , dryers , refrigerators and most anything else . The exceptions to this only serve to prove the rule. The Red Sox are not the World Series champs by acting like small market, small time Charlies. Let's not start now . We don't want to have a championship caliber team only to have some low cost jabroni coming in from the bullpen in the ninth inning.

 

Honestly I think everyone knows exactly what you're saying and agrees with it. It would be crazy to have a championship contending team like the 2019 Red Sox should be, and to completely neglect the back end of the bullpen.

 

Some people just think we can address that need without spending a further bundle of money.

 

I'm quite sure this is the foremost thing on DD's agenda right now.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here’s what it comes down to. The Sox won the division by 8 games. That seems like a ridiculous margin, but when you consider that the 4 game sweep in August really sealed the Yanks fate, you see how fragile that lead was. If the tables turned and the Yanks swept that series, the division would have been tied. Yes, you could turn to Barnes. Yes, his peripherals are great. The problem with Barnes is that he never outperforms his FIP, his BABIP remains abnormally high year after year and his career HR rate is right at the rate Kimbrel posted last year (which was a career high by a lot) in what everyone considers a down season. You’re talking about a hittable closer with big K rates and inexplicable hit tendencies for a guy with his kind of stuff. Add in the unknown of him closing and it’s a recipe for pain. Also, you need to replace Barnes in the setup role if you promote him to closer. Kelly gave you some value. He’s gone. Barnes moves to closer, his innings in middle relief are gone. Brasier becomes a need rather than a nice to have and if anyone falters, you’re f***ed

[Nick]

I wasn't really asking to compare them as closers, but if Eovaldi ends up there (maybe for the playoffs), I'd be okay with the idea, assuming our other starters are healthy and solid.

 

I was more asking about an either-or choice: If we signed Kimbrel, would we prefer him over having Johnson/Velazquez as our 5th starter, instead of our 6th starter.

 

The answer is no. Kimbrel will want 4 years at minimum and we can't tie up $15M+ for a closer who appears to be on decline.

[Bellhorn04]

Here’s what it comes down to. The Sox won the division by 8 games. That seems like a ridiculous margin, but when you consider that the 4 game sweep in August really sealed the Yanks fate, you see how fragile that lead was. If the tables turned and the Yanks swept that series, the division would have been tied. Yes, you could turn to Barnes. Yes, his peripherals are great. The problem with Barnes is that he never outperforms his FIP, his BABIP remains abnormally high year after year and his career HR rate is right at the rate Kimbrel posted last year (which was a career high by a lot) in what everyone considers a down season. You’re talking about a hittable closer with big K rates and inexplicable hit tendencies for a guy with his kind of stuff. Add in the unknown of him closing and it’s a recipe for pain. Also, you need to replace Barnes in the setup role if you promote him to closer. Kelly gave you some value. He’s gone. Barnes moves to closer, his innings in middle relief are gone. Brasier becomes a need rather than a nice to have and if anyone falters, you’re f***ed

 

There will be more than Barnes and Brasier at the back of the pen. You know it, I know it, we all know it.

 

That's some argument about the fragile 8 game lead BTW.

[S5Dewey]

Here’s what it comes down to. The Sox won the division by 8 games. That seems like a ridiculous margin, but when you consider that the 4 game sweep in August really sealed the Yanks fate, you see how fragile that lead was. If the tables turned and the Yanks swept that series, the division would have been tied.

 

And as my Mom used to say, "If the dog hadn't stopped to s*** he'd have caught the fox, too".

 

(I come from a family with lots of colorful expressions)

[notin]

 

That's some argument about the fragile 8 game lead BTW.

 

 

It really helps if you completely forget that the Sox and Yankees played 6 times in the final 12 games of the season in games that meant more to the Yankees than the Sox (as Oakland was still within a theoretical striking distance for home field). The Yankees went 4-2 in those games....

[Bellhorn04]

And as my Mom used to say, "If the dog hadn't stopped to s*** he'd have caught the fox, too".

 

(I come from a family with lots of colorful expressions)

 

And damn, it's a good thing the Dodgers didn't win Games 1, 2 and 4 of the World Series!

[moonslav59]

That is difficult to answer , and it really never should come down to a choice like that. Nothing is more important than a top of the rotation pitcher . I was one of those who was happy we acquired Eovaldi. And I'm glad we re signed him. He made a ton of fans last October. However, let's not go crazy and anoint him the next Nolan Ryan just yet. His track record is not even remotely as impressive as Kimbrel's. I happen to value the closer position more than some others on here do. And it doesn't have to be Kimbrel. I think Zach Britton , for one , would be a good alternative. But I do not like the idea of rolling the dice and going with an unproven reliever in this important role. If you have the money for other areas , then find the money for this one too.

 

As much as I hate the fact that we have severe budget challenges, I do think choice like Eovaldi vs Kimbrel are a reality. I'm not saying Henry is shutting the door on any more big spending this winter, but it very well may be the case.

 

In our current case, "finding the money" is very hard. Trading Porcello would negate the Eovaldi signing. The only salaries I can see that are tradeable without us opening another huge hole are Nunez and Moreland. An argument can be made that both are very important, but probably not more than getting a solid closer. I'm not sure if anyone wanys Nunez or Moreland at their costs.

 

Again, as a hypothetical, who do take as an either/or:

 

Eovaldi

 

or

 

Kimbrel

 

To me, it's not close. It's Eovaldi.

Edited December 27, 2018 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

As much as I hate the fact that we have severe budget challenges, I do think choice like Eovaldi vs Kimbrel are a reality. I'm not saying Henry is shutting the door on any more big spending this winter, but it very well may be the case.

 

In our current case, "finding the money" is very hard. Trading Porcello would negate the Eovaldi signing. The only salaries I can see that are tradeable without us opening another huge hole are Nunez and Moreland. An argument can be made that both are very important, but probably not more than getting a solid closer. I'm not sure if anyone wanys Nunez or Moreland at their costs.

 

Again, as a hypothetical, who do take as an either/or:

 

Eovaldi

 

of

Kimbrel

 

To me, it's not close. It's Eovaldi.

 

We are in to trade off studies. All have consequences. Assuming we make a trade and get prospects, that would give us another $6 million to spend on a FA closer and probably still have a small cushion for contingency situations. I see us picking up a closer and filling other BP needs from within.

[moonslav59]

We are in to trade off studies. All have consequences. Assuming we make a trade and get prospects, that would give us another $6 million to spend on a FA closer and probably still have a small cushion for contingency situations. I see us picking up a closer and filling other BP needs from within.

 

I'd rather have a very solid closer or a couple nice pen options than Nunez and/or Moreland.

 

I'd like to keep a cushion for the season, as well.

 

Trading Nunez and Moreland would really put a lot of pressure and hopes on guys like (Pedey) Holt & Pearce, but also on our very thin bench of Lin, Chavez, Swihart and maybe Ockimey or Dalbec. That doesn't sound too appealing, but if not going over the $40M line is a priority, then I can't see how we spend much on a closer, unless we dump some salary or trade top prospects for a low cost reliever.

 

 

[notin]

I happen to value the closer position more than some others on here do. I do not like the idea of rolling the dice and going with an unproven reliever in this important role. If you have the money for other areas , then find the money for this one too.

 

If they’ve spent near their limit, then there is no money to be found. The only alternative is to free up some cash. Would you trade Porcello or Bradley or Bogaerts to free up some cash (and potentially acquire a closer)?

[Bellhorn04]

I just can't see the logic in the idea that they decided to allocate $6 million + to Steve Pearce and zero to the pen with Kimbrel and Kelly departing. I don't buy that for a millisecond.

[dgalehouse]

I just can't see the logic in the idea that they decided to allocate $6 million + to Steve Pearce and zero to the pen with Kimbrel and Kelly departing. I don't buy that for a millisecond.

 

Exactly . If that was the plan , it would be absolutely asinine . And I don't see Dombrowski or Henry as asinine. I am sure they do have a plan for the pen . But I am starting to get nervous about it .

[notin]

There will be more than Barnes and Brasier at the back of the pen. You know it, I know it, we all know it.

 

That's some argument about the fragile 8 game lead BTW.

 

One thing about Barnes - while his career ERA is 4.14, it’s probably worth noting that it has gotten better every year.

 

Not that ERA is the best measure for a closer. When you only pitch 60 IP per season, each earned run raises it a full 0.15. So one bad 4 run inning, and it goes up 0.60...

[notin]

Exactly . If that was the plan , it would be absolutely asinine . And I don't see Dombrowski or Henry as asinine. I am sure they do have a plan for the pen . But I am starting to get nervous about it .

 

 

I think Dombrowski is simply waiting out the market for the bigger names to fill some of the voids around the league and hoping for a bargain on someone like Cody Allen. Worst case is the journeyman types lie Jim Johnson or Brad Brach...

[dgalehouse]

One thing about Barnes - while his career ERA is 4.14, it’s probably worth noting that it has gotten better every year.

 

Not that ERA is the best measure for a closer. When you only pitch 60 IP per season, each earned run raises it a full 0.15. So one bad 4 run inning, and it goes up 0.60...

 

I think career ERA is a pretty good indicator for a reliever . A couple of bad innings can inflate the ERA for a season . But if a guy has been around for a while , he has probably built up a pretty good base of innings in his career .