And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Kimmi]

And you can say it again and again until you're blue in the face and it will still be truth that the path to the best possible closer involves considering all options, including the expensive ones!

 

You can't take options out of the solution pool arbitrarily and then demand the best possible outcome. And we are NOT in a situation where "good enough" is good enough!

 

Why does the best possible closer have to be expensive?

 

And yes, good enough is good enough!

[Kimmi]

If you go into the season with your pen as is, you might end up okay. You might end up great. But you also might end up abhorrent. Brasier looked great in 2018, but there’s a reason he was in the minors in Japan. He put it together for the first time in his life at 30. What are the chances he come out and loses the zone again? Probably pretty high? You guy talk about Brasier like he’s a sure thing, but he very possibly could be Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon and the bloom could fall off the rose. Barnes has a heck of a season from a peripherals perspective, but he’s always been homer prone and that’s a deathknell of a bullpen. Limiting homeruns, especially for a closer, is paramount. Listen, I understand the predicament. If you bring Kimbrel back, you’re making one more run at this and then the gang will fall apart. But it leaves your team with few holes heading into 2019. Or you can have holes going into 2019 but better keep the band together thereafter without Kimbrel on the books

 

We could bring Kimbrel back and sign Robertson or Britton on top of that, and our pen might end up okay, or great, or abhorrent. Spending big bucks on relievers doesn't guarantee anything.

 

The Yankees presumably had the great pen of all time, one that could shorten games to 3 innings. Where did that get you?

[Kimmi]

DD will go into the season with an established closer. He can build the rest of the pen on the fly. Everything else is already in place.

 

This I agree with.

[Kimmi]

I don’t know what route DD will take, but I am confidant that he will not half ass it and cross his fingers. He’ll get someone solid.

 

Dombrowski is so predictable.

 

He's afraid to take a risk.

[Bellhorn04]

I kind of like moon's idea of signing Cody Allen. Assuming our scouts and analytics guys have figured out what went wrong with him last year and how to fix it.

[Kimmi]

As I said in the other thread, this is not just DD's MO. It's no different from what Theo or Ben would do in this position, if you look at their histories.

 

Theo and Ben have done things along these lines in the past.

 

Dombrowski, not a chance.

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski is so predictable.

 

He's afraid to take a risk.

 

Unfair. Theo would do the same.

[Bellhorn04]

Theo and Ben have done things along these lines in the past.

 

Ben devoted huge resources to acquiring an established closer. Theo has also invested huge resources in his pen starting in 2016 with the trade for Chapman.

[Kimmi]

I have my doubts about Brasier.

 

The guy is 31 and has been bouncing around the minors for more than a full decade. And that he suddenly has figured out what it takes to not only make the majors, but to excel there? That he is a flash in the pan is a serious possibility....

 

Brasier will not have an ERA of 1.60 next season. His peripherals were not that good. Will he be good enough to be a closer? That's a different question.

[Bellhorn04]

What's funny about this particular discussion is that Dombrowski was so heavily criticized by many for not devoting enough attention to the pen in Detroit's years of contention.

[Kimmi]

Unfair. Theo would do the same.

 

Ben devoted huge resources to acquiring an established closer. Theo has also invested huge resources in his pen starting in 2016 with the trade for Chapman.

 

I'm not saying that Theo and Ben haven't spent big on closers in the past, but I'm saying that they have taken risks in the past by going with the under the radar players at key positions, including pitching.

 

Take a risk, Dave!

[Kimmi]

What's funny about this particular discussion is that Dombrowski was so heavily criticized by many for not devoting enough attention to the pen in Detroit's years of contention.

 

My point is and has always been that you don't have to spend big on relievers. I have never once suggested that we don't pay attention to the pen or that we put together a mediocre pen.

 

You can put together a great pen, including a great closer, without handing out big contracts or trading away the farm. The difficult part is in identifying those pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

Sure, take a risk, Dave. Just make f'ing sure it works.

[kenmeister]

I think we trade for a solid closer who does not put us over the $40M line.

 

Or sign a closer (if one is still available!), and then make a salary dump trade. I'm not sure who can be traded who would make a difference other than Porcello, and I'd hate to see him go but I still think we could win given our starting pitching depth.

[Kimmi]

Sure, take a risk, Dave. Just make f'ing sure it works.

 

Well then, it wouldn't be a risk, would it?

[Bellhorn04]

My point is and has always been that you don't have to spend big on relievers. I have never once suggested that we don't pay attention to the pen or that we put together a mediocre pen.

 

You can put together a great pen, including a great closer, without handing out big contracts or trading away the farm. The difficult part is in identifying those pitchers.

 

In 2018 the Cubs had 5 relievers with an AAV of $3.5 million or more-Morrow, Cishek, Strop, J Wilson and Duensing. Their total AAV was about $32 million. If Theo is the man, doesn't this suggest it's a sound strategy to spend a bit on the pen?

[moonslav59]

I don’t know what route DD will take, but I am confidant that he will not half ass it and cross his fingers. He’ll get someone solid.

 

I'm thinking solid but maybe not spectacular or even a well-known closer. After all, we don't have many trading chips left.

[moonslav59]

Who do we trade? Won't we have to free up some cap space to make a trade work? I would think Swihart, possibly Moreland would allow us some roon to take on a $10 mil contract. But then, are we sure we won't need help at 2nd base? Pedey is still and unknow and the first information is likely to come in at the beginning of January. DD needs to be careful with his moved, assuming they don't want to go over the second tier of the luxury tax threshhold.

 

1) We can trade for a closer who has yet to reach arb or is in year 1 of arb.

2) We trade for a well-paid closer, but the other team pays a big chunk of the cost, because we gave them something nice in return.

3) We trade someone like Nunez or Moreland to free up salary space and roll the dice at 1B (Pearce/Chavis/Dalbec/Swihart) or 2B (Holt/Pedey/Lin/Hernandez).

 

Who do we trade?

 

Maybe Swihart, Johnson, and Chavis for a solid but not great closer.

 

(No, I don't have any names.)

[moonslav59]

I kind of like moon's idea of signing Cody Allen. Assuming our scouts and analytics guys have figured out what went wrong with him last year and how to fix it.

 

I did say Cody Allen and a solid set-up guy, but that was before we signed Eovaldi.

 

I'm not sure if signing Allen will be worth putting us over the $40M line.

 

This $40M line might be an illusion. Henry might be fine with going over it, at least for one more big push year, but signing anyone to a big long term deal means significant reprecussions in 2020 and beyond.

 

Ideally, we get a closer for dirt cheap and save $2-4M for mid season dealings. How to do that is difficult when we have so few trading chips we can afford to part with, without opening a new hole or pretty much ending most hopes for any farm input in the next few years b y trading away the last of our best prospects.

 

[notin]

In 2018 the Cubs had 5 relievers with an AAV of $3.5 million or more-Morrow, Cishek, Strop, J Wilson and Duensing. Their total AAV was about $32 million. If Theo is the man, doesn't this suggest it's a sound strategy to spend a bit on the pen?

 

No one has said spending in the bullpen is bad. What some are saying is it isn’t the only way. Epstein was able to spend in the bullpen because the team around it was largely pre or arb-level homegrown talent, one reason his payroll was less than the Sox currently is. But as those salaries escalate, he seems hesitant to spend as well. That doesn’t mean the team is perfect. Or rebuilding. Just spending isn’t always an option.

 

Dombrowski is in a similar position with regards to spending....

[moonslav59]

No one has said spending in the bullpen is bad. What some are saying is it isn’t the only way. Epstein was able to spend in the bullpen because the team around it was largely pre or arb-level homegrown talent, one reason his payroll was less than the Sox currently is. But as those salaries escalate, he seems hesitant to spend as well. That doesn’t mean the team is perfect. Or rebuilding. Just spending isn’t always an option.

 

Dombrowski is in a similar position with regards to spending....

 

It's hard to spend $32M on the pen, when the rest of the luxury budget is already over $225M.

[notin]

It's hard to spend $32M on the pen, when the rest of the luxury budget is already over $225M.

 

Exactly. Dombrowski isn’t looking to go cheap in the bullpen for any reason except that he has to. He’ll, the man LOVES spending heavily and has a long history of doing so.

 

It seems like the only way he spends heavily on the bullpen now is if he pares some salary elsewhere. Which does make that story about Porcello, Bogaerts, Bradley, etc. make more sense...

[harmony]

1) We can trade for a closer who has yet to reach arb or is in year 1 of arb.

2) We trade for a well-paid closer, but the other team pays a big chunk of the cost, because we gave them something nice in return.

3) We trade someone like Nunez or Moreland to free up salary space and roll the dice at 1B (Pearce/Chavis/Dalbec/Swihart) or 2B (Holt/Pedey/Lin/Hernandez).

 

Who do we trade?

 

Maybe Swihart, Johnson, and Chavis for a solid but not great closer.

 

(No, I don't have any names.)

Whom could the Red Sox offer for Baltimore reliever Mychal Givens, who remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2019 salary of $2 million?

 

Steamer projects the 28-year-old Givens, whose fastball averages 95 mph, with 29 saves in 2019 despite relieving for the woeful Orioles:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10430&position=P

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/givenmy01.shtml

 

Two sources currently list Givens as the Baltimore closer:

 

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=bal

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-baltimore-orioles

 

Likewise, Arizona closer Archie Bradley remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2019 salary of $2 million. Steamer projects the 26-year-old Bradley with 25 saves in 2019:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12918&position=P

 

The Diamondbacks could turn the closer duties over to 35-year-old Yoshihisa Hirano.

 

Of course, Los Angeles Angel reliever Ty Buttrey could fit the bill:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14719&position=P

Edited December 26, 2018 by harmony

[notin]

Is it a question about the Sox targeting specific closers or is it a question about who is the best closer available for a package headlined by Michael Chavis?

 

Givens would be great. But will Chavis (plus?) be enough to land him?

[notin]

1) We can trade for a closer who has yet to reach arb or is in year 1 of arb.

2) We trade for a well-paid closer, but the other team pays a big chunk of the cost, because we gave them something nice in return.

3) We trade someone like Nunez or Moreland to free up salary space and roll the dice at 1B (Pearce/Chavis/Dalbec/Swihart) or 2B (Holt/Pedey/Lin/Hernandez).

 

 

Why would you suppose Moreland - the strong side of the platoon who is younger and been a full time starter- be available? I really don’t think you want to see Pearce as a full time player for the first time in his career at age 35/36...

[harmony]

Is it a question about the Sox targeting specific closers or is it a question about who is the best closer available for a package headlined by Michael Chavis?

 

Givens would be great. But will Chavis (plus?) be enough to land him?

Blake Swihart and Brian Johnson may not have great value but I could see the Orioles having some interest in four years of Swihart with a projected 2019 salary of $1.1 million and five years of Johnson.

[moonslav59]

Whom could the Red Sox offer for Baltimore reliever Mychal Givens, who remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2019 salary of $2 million?

 

Steamer projects the 28-year-old Givens, whose fastball averages 95 mph, with 29 saves in 2019 despite relieving for the woeful Orioles:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10430&position=P

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/givenmy01.shtml

 

Two sources currently list Givens as the Baltimore closer:

 

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=bal

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-baltimore-orioles

 

Likewise, Arizona closer Archie Bradley remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2019 salary of $2 million. Steamer projects the 26-year-old Bradley with 25 saves in 2019:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12918&position=P

 

The Diamondbacks could turn the closer duties over to 35-year-old Yoshihisa Hirano.

 

Of course, Los Angeles Angel reliever Ty Buttrey could fit the bill:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14719&position=P

 

Maybe Johnson, Swihart, Chavis and Scerff?

[Kimmi]

In 2018 the Cubs had 5 relievers with an AAV of $3.5 million or more-Morrow, Cishek, Strop, J Wilson and Duensing. Their total AAV was about $32 million. If Theo is the man, doesn't this suggest it's a sound strategy to spend a bit on the pen?

 

1. Just because Theo is the man doesn't mean that he's infallible.

2. I would be okay with signing guys to contracts with a $5 mill AAV or even a little higher for 2-3 years. When I say that you don't need to hand out the big contracts, I'm talking about signing someone like Kimbrell to a 4 year/$60 mil deal. Big difference.

3. Who were the 2 best Cubs relievers by fWAR? Carl Edwards Jr., who made under $600K and Jesse Chavez who made roughly $1 million. Granted, Edwards Jr. is under team control and not a free agent, so he's in a different boat, but I think it still speaks to the point.

[Kimmi]

No one has said spending in the bullpen is bad. What some are saying is it isn’t the only way. Epstein was able to spend in the bullpen because the team around it was largely pre or arb-level homegrown talent, one reason his payroll was less than the Sox currently is. But as those salaries escalate, he seems hesitant to spend as well. That doesn’t mean the team is perfect. Or rebuilding. Just spending isn’t always an option.

 

Dombrowski is in a similar position with regards to spending....

 

Good point about the team largely being cost controlled. We were in a similar situation when we signed Price. Not that I was a fan of the contract, but having the young talent surrounding him allowed that contract to happen.

 

Not that I'm ever a fan of paying big bucks for relievers, I'm even more against it given the salaries we will have to pay next year if we want to keep some of our players.

[notin]

3. Who were the 2 best Cubs relievers by fWAR? Carl Edwards Jr., who made under $600K and Jesse Chavez who made roughly $1 million. Granted, Edwards Jr. is under team control and not a free agent, so he's in a different boat, but I think it still speaks to the point.

 

 

Actually an argument against spending for relievers...