And the off season begins (2018-19)

[moonslav59]

I think we'd all like to have Eovaldi & Kimbrel back, and I'm not saying the closer is not important, but if I had to choose, I'll take 150-200 IP from Eovaldi over 60-65 from Kimbrel. He's cheaper, too.

[sk7326]

The budget is a concern for sure . But if you want a championship caliber team you need quality players . Don't start grabbing a bunch of ham and eggers , hoping to find a diamond in the rough. That will not work. I think D.D. understands this.

 

Sure - but DD also understands the year to year consistency and reliability of relievers is VERY low.

[S5Dewey]

I'm just going to say what everybody already knows:

 

We're going to have some SERIOUS salary crunch in the upcoming years and there's no way we're going to be able to keep this team intact. That means that some of our premium players are going to leave and regardless of how they leave they're not going to be here. The good news is that it frees up some salary. The bad news is that the team isn't going to be as good.

 

If we could sign him to a one or two year contract I'd be all over it, but he'd be foolish to take that on. And we'd be foolish to offer a long term contract to someone who's rapidly approaching "past his prime" status, especially when his salary in those past-his-prime-years would hamstring us from being able to sign solid position players.

 

Even if we sign him to a long term contract and he proves to still be effective.... he won't give us what we need because there won't be the potential saves for him..... because of his own salary!

[dgalehouse]

So no more Ryan Brasier types?

 

Actually , Ryan Brasier was a good find . A little known flamethrower pitching in Japan. I was thinking of the kind of ham and eggers that Ben used to collect . Guys like Jean Machi , Eddie Mujica , Chris Capuano , Noe Ramirez and Jonathan Aro , among others . Get enough dumpster types and you wind up down in the dumps. Stick with quality if you want a quality team.

[dgalehouse]

What makes you think we don't think about a drop off in our closer position?

 

I do.

 

I also know I was scared shitless the last few times Kimbrel came into a game.

 

What happened was that you became sucked into the vortex of despair that was playoff paranoia during the post season game threads.

[notin]

Actually , Ryan Brasier was a good find . A little known flamethrower pitching in Japan. I was thinking of the kind of ham and eggers that Ben used to collect . Guys like Jean Machi , Eddie Mujica , Chris Capuano , Noe Ramirez and Jonathan Aro , among others . Get enough dumpster types and you wind up down in the dumps. Stick with quality if you want a quality team.

 

Noe Ramirez was a Sox draft pick who worked his way up through the system and Aro was an international free agent who did the same thing. You’re against that type of player? Heck even Machi and Mujica were both outstanding relievers before coming to Boston.

 

Brasier is exactly the type of player you’re calling out. A career minor leaguer who crapped out of the Angels’ system and wound up in Japan because no one wanted him. But he had the type of radar gun readings DD likes, so that “ham and egger” got a shot and it worked out. It does happen sometimes.

 

One has to wonder what issues he had that no one wanted him before. Since he still had a 98mph fastball at age 31, I’d guess he had some control problems at some point. One can only hope they don’t resurface...

[notin]

I think we'd all like to have Eovaldi & Kimbrel back, and I'm not saying the closer is not important, but if I had to choose, I'll take 150-200 IP from Eovaldi over 60-65 from Kimbrel. He's cheaper, too.

 

This is a tough call for me.

 

Eovaldi would be more important going forward, but expecting 150-200IP from a guy whose thrown about 230 IP combined in the past 3 seasons does seem a little hopeful.

 

Kimbrel seems like he’d be more important in 2019, but this rotation could have issues in 2020 and beyond once Sale and Porcello depart. Having (potentially) the most expensive closer in MLB history will cut into the Sox ability to fill those rotation spots while also retaining Bogaerts and/or Martinez...

[Kimmi]

His 4 blown saves in the World Series clearly do. The man could not get it done when it mattered most.

 

I will concede though that he was sabotaged by one of the most pathetic displays of infield defense I've ever seen, but he didn't help himself out either.

 

I mean, if this was an ordinary year, I'd say whatever, you guys are sufficiently determined to learn this lesson the hard way, again, for like the 3rd time since 2001, then hey, go nuts. But I thought this year was about having a great chance to go back to back. Cheaping out on the back end of the bullpen isn't going to get us there.

 

This is kind of a golden opportunity you're squandering here by caring more about baseball politics than putting the best possible team on the field. So yeah, I feel like this matters and don't think that deliberately accepting the second best closer is a strong move, especially in a position as fundamentally short-term as closing.

 

"Cheaping out" on the back end of the bullpen is not necessarily the same thing as downgrading the quality.

 

A Kimbrel level closer can be found for a much lesser price.

[Kimmi]

Sure - but DD also understands the year to year consistency and reliability of relievers is VERY low.

 

I am in agreement with your posts about relievers and closers.

 

You get the Kimmi Seal of Approval.

[notin]

I am in agreement with your posts about relievers and closers.

 

You get the Kimmi Seal of Approval.

 

I don’t.

 

I don’t think it’s fair to say relievers are inconsistent pitchers. To me that seems backwards. I would instead say that inconsistent pitchers are relievers.

 

And those two statements are NOT the same thing...

[notin]

"Cheaping out" on the back end of the bullpen is not necessarily the same thing as downgrading the quality.

 

A Kimbrel level closer can be found for a much lesser price.

 

You may not get the pitcher Kimbrel was for a lesser price, but you might get the pitcher he will be from here on for a lesser price...

[kenmeister]

Actually , Ryan Brasier was a good find . A little known flamethrower pitching in Japan. I was thinking of the kind of ham and eggers that Ben used to collect . Guys like Jean Machi , Eddie Mujica , Chris Capuano , Noe Ramirez and Jonathan Aro , among others . Get enough dumpster types and you wind up down in the dumps. Stick with quality if you want a quality team.

 

Why not contemplate Brasier as the closer? Untested, sure, but he seems to have the talent.

[notin]

Why not contemplate Brasier as the closer? Untested, sure, but he seems to have the talent.

 

The fear he might be a flash in the pan?

 

Angels had a similar out-of-nowhere 30ish pitcher the year before named Blake Parker, a guy who had been up and down between MLB and MiLB for like 5 or 6 years. He had a good season in Anaheim. They named him closer. He flamed out fast.

 

I think Brasier makes the team, but let’s not throw everything at him just yet...

[cp176]

You may not get the pitcher Kimbrel was for a lesser price, but you might get the pitcher he will be from here on for a lesser price...

 

Actually you probably are correct in saying this. What he has done for us, will not be easy to replace, but in his case you really have to consider what you are apt to get from him going forward.

[oldtimer]

Actually you probably are correct in saying this. What he has done for us, will not be easy to replace, but in his case you really have to consider what you are apt to get from him going forward.

 

It should be about value to the club versus risk. Clearly he still has value but is it worth the risk of a 5 year contract at around $70 million? Most of the fans here would not advocate that we be players at that level. I don't blame Kimbrel for wanting to cash in but I would blame management for being silly enough to go big for a pitcher who may well decline over the next few years.

[moonslav59]

What happened was that you became sucked into the vortex of despair that was playoff paranoia during the post season game threads.

 

That is what happened.

 

Plus, I literally busted my gut over the guy. (I have a laparoscopic hernia operation scheduled Dec 18th.)

[notin]

It should be about value to the club versus risk. Clearly he still has value but is it worth the risk of a 5 year contract at around $70 million? Most of the fans here would not advocate that we be players at that level. I don't blame Kimbrel for wanting to cash in but I would blame management for being silly enough to go big for a pitcher who may well decline over the next few years.

 

The Sox have some options here.

 

They could spend heavy and go all in on Kimbrel and/or Eovaldi and take their best shot at repeating while the core is intact and before it breaks up and this team potentially crashes. Or be conservative and look for the lower cost, shorter term “value plays” that will enable extending some of the core players to keep the team competitive but less likely to win a title for a longer period...

[cp176]

It should be about value to the club versus risk. Clearly he still has value but is it worth the risk of a 5 year contract at around $70 million? Most of the fans here would not advocate that we be players at that level. I don't blame Kimbrel for wanting to cash in but I would blame management for being silly enough to go big for a pitcher who may well decline over the next few years.

 

I know right. It is a really tough call even if the price is right. I do think though that if he gets what he wants, it likely won't be from the Sox. I would love to see this "gamer" back in Boston but not with the deal he is looking for. I still think he will get the job done for a few years better than anyone we might stick out there though.

[Jack Flap]

I'm fine with letting Kimbrel walk...I was rather on the fence about that for most of the year, but watching him in the postseason kind of sealed the deal for me (whether that's fair or not). If we could be assured of getting the 2017 (or early career with Atlanta) version of Kimbrel all the time, then sure, I'd empty my pockets for that guy, but two of his three seasons in Boston were more good than great, and he was far too inconsistent when we needed him most. His agent apparently wants GOAT closer money, which he certainly has a case for, but I hope we're not the team that gives it to him.

 

The more I think about it, the more I'd be fine with giving Barnes first crack at the job in tandem with Brasier, signing Kelly if you can and maybe someone like Miller to supplement them from the left side, and seeing how Feltman's development goes. Some may prefer a Robertson or Britton or Soria or any of the other relief options floating around on the market, which I'd have no real argument with, either.

[Bellhorn04]

Kimbrel's contract worked out perfectly for us IMO

[moonslav59]

Actually you probably are correct in saying this. What he has done for us, will not be easy to replace, but in his case you really have to consider what you are apt to get from him going forward.

 

Exactly. Just because Kimbrel has arguably been the best MLB closer for the last 5-6 years combined, doesn't mean he will continue to be even a top 5 closer in just the first year of his expected 4-5 year deal, let alone years 2 to 5.

 

Kimbrel did some great things for us, and it will hurt losing him, but he had already shown signs of decline over recent years, particularly 2016 and 2018. His main area of concern is control. He's still been striking out batters as much as ever, but look at these BB/9 numbers...

 

3.4 with ATL (5 yrs)

3.3 with SD (1 yr)

5.1 in 2016

1.8 in 2017

4.5 in 2018

 

Thankfully, his hits per 9 went down, but his HR/9 has inched up steadily for 2 straight seasons.

 

I'd love to have Kimbrel back, but paying him top closer money for 4-5 years, when he's not the top closer anymore and will likely only get worse does not seem like a good choice.

 

Kimbrel

 

2011-2015:

#1 in RP'er WAR at 12.5

T#4 in ERA- at 46

#3 in WHIP at 0.91 (behind Uehara & W Davis)

 

2016-2018

T#4 in WAR 6.0 (with Betances)

#11 in ERA- at 55

T#6 in WHIP at 0.91

 

Don't get me wrong, those numbers with the Sox are fantastic! However, he was barely a top 5 closer as compared to being the best before.

 

 

 

[cp176]

Exactly. Just because Kimbrel has arguably been the best MLB closer for the last 5-6 years combined, doesn't mean he will continue to be even a top 5 closer in just the first year of his expected 4-5 year deal, let alone years 2 to 5.

 

Kimbrel did some great things for us, and it will hurt losing him, but he had already shown signs of decline over recent years, particularly 2016 and 2018. His main area of concern is control. He's still been striking out batters as much as ever, but look at these BB/9 numbers...

 

3.4 with ATL (5 yrs)

3.3 with SD (1 yr)

5.1 in 2016

1.8 in 2017

4.5 in 2018

 

Thankfully, his hits per 9 went down, but his HR/9 has inched up steadily for 2 straight seasons.

 

I'd love to have Kimbrel back, but paying him top closer money for 4-5 years, when he's not the top closer anymore and will likely only get worse does not seem like a good choice.

 

Kimbrel

 

2011-2015:

#1 in RP'er WAR at 12.5

T#4 in ERA- at 46

#3 in WHIP at 0.91 (behind Uehara & W Davis)

 

2016-2018

T#4 in WAR 6.0 (with Betances)

#11 in ERA- at 55

T#6 in WHIP at 0.91

 

Don't get me wrong, those numbers with the Sox are fantastic! However, he was barely a top 5 closer as compared to being the best before.

 

 

 

 

I agree. I don't do the statistical thing to attempt to prove my points very often (as in probably never) so my thoughts about watching Kimbrel are more gut feeling types of things and I have to say that I never felt that him coming in to a game this year made the outcome a done deal. There probably isn't a closer in the game today who was any better but I like my guys to throw strikes. I don't care much for relief pitchers in general who tend to walk guys. You have to have that guy if your are going to pay a bunch for a number of years for anyone who might wind up pitching what may 70 innings over the course of a season. I love Kimbrel but I also think that the position of closer has become something that I am not fond of. I do doubt very much though that you are going to replace one of the best of all time with someone as even as good anytime soon.

[Hitch]

Kimbrel's contract worked out perfectly for us IMO

 

Absolutely this. He was superb for us for almost all of the contract and helped us to 3 Division titles and then had just enough to help us to the WS.

 

IT worked out very well for us and now is the perfect time to walk away and say thank you.

[sk7326]

Absolutely this. He was superb for us for almost all of the contract and helped us to 3 Division titles and then had just enough to help us to the WS.

 

IT worked out very well for us and now is the perfect time to walk away and say thank you.

 

(whispers) he wasn't' very good in 2016.

[Dojji]

(whispers) he wasn't' very good in 2016.

 

Yes he was, he just wasn't as very good as you wanted him to be.

 

It was Kimbrel's worst year of his career so far but it was still more than acceptable. Heck, nearly every closer I've seen suggested to replace him had at least one season worse than Kimbrel's 2016. A certain variability is a given when dealing with relief pitching, and if that's Kimbrel's worst, then his worst was still pretty darn good.

[moonslav59]

I agree. I don't do the statistical thing to attempt to prove my points very often (as in probably never) so my thoughts about watching Kimbrel are more gut feeling types of things and I have to say that I never felt that him coming in to a game this year made the outcome a done deal. There probably isn't a closer in the game today who was any better but I like my guys to throw strikes. I don't care much for relief pitchers in general who tend to walk guys. You have to have that guy if your are going to pay a bunch for a number of years for anyone who might wind up pitching what may 70 innings over the course of a season. I love Kimbrel but I also think that the position of closer has become something that I am not fond of. I do doubt very much though that you are going to replace one of the best of all time with someone as even as good anytime soon.

 

Good points, and there's a good chance replacing Kimbrel with Kimbrel will end up not being close to what we had for the last 3 years.

[moonslav59]

Yes he was, he just wasn't as very good as you wanted him to be.

 

It was Kimbrel's worst year of his career so far but it was still more than acceptable. Heck, nearly every closer I've seen suggested to replace him had at least one season worse than Kimbrel's 2016. A certain variability is a given when dealing with relief pitching, and if that's Kimbrel's worst, then his worst was still pretty darn good.

 

His 2016 and 2018 seasons were unlike 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2017.

 

He had his highest WHIP in 2016. It's understandable that one could view that year as not "very good" when compared to his other years. (I think he was the highest paid closer in 2016- that changed quickly afterwards.)

 

His highest BB/9 before 2016 was 3.8 in 2014. In 4 of his last 7 years it has been under 3.3. It was 5.1 in 2016 and 4.7 in 2018. In no way is that even close to "very good." Now, I get that's not all that closing is about but walking half a better per inning is an issue for any closer, no matter how well you do with the others.

 

Like I have said, he was a top 5 closer for us. He helped us a lot. He was a "very good" closer every year, but he wasn't as great as he was prior to coming to Boston, except for 2017. He declined and likely will continue to do so.

 

Replacing him will not be easy, and we may very well lose a few games by not finding someone as good, but we may lose more by not replacing Eovaldi and Kelly.

[dgalehouse]

That is what happened.

 

Plus, I literally busted my gut over the guy. (I have a laparoscopic hernia operation scheduled Dec 18th.)

 

Well Moon , I hope you are back home and on the mend for Christmas. Yes , the stress and anxiety levels were crazy this post season. The game threads were incendiary with the screaming, cursing, lack of faith and the venom spewed at some players. I tried to be the voice of reason , so to speak , but it was out of control. I wound up just avoiding the game threads. The funny part is , this was probably the easiest , smoothest pennant race and post season run ever. There was no reason for the angst. No doubt Kimbrel caused much of it as he was certainly not at his best . However, the bottom line is that the Sox went 11 - 3 . Kimbrel saved six of the eleven and had no blown saves. Pretty sure Kimbrel will not be back . It is just too much money and we have other needs. I wish him and his family the best ( Talk about stress and anxiety) . We won't be as good next year as we were this year , but maybe still good enough to repeat. Hopefully, we all learn a lesson to keep the faith and not get swept away with our emotions and stress levels. And this is coming from a guy who threw a beer bottle at the TV in 1986. Best of luck with your surgery.

[moonslav59]

Well Moon , I hope you are back home and on the mend for Christmas. Yes , the stress and anxiety levels were crazy this post season. The game threads were incendiary with the screaming, cursing, lack of faith and the venom spewed at some players. I tried to be the voice of reason , so to speak , but it was out of control. I wound up just avoiding the game threads. The funny part is , this was probably the easiest , smoothest pennant race and post season run ever. There was no reason for the angst. No doubt Kimbrel caused much of it as he was certainly not at his best . However, the bottom line is that the Sox went 11 - 3 . Kimbrel saved six of the eleven and had no blown saves. Pretty sure Kimbrel will not be back . It is just too much money and we have other needs. I wish him and his family the best ( Talk about stress and anxiety) . We won't be as good next year as we were this year , but maybe still good enough to repeat. Hopefully, we all learn a lesson to keep the faith and not get swept away with our emotions and stress levels. And this is coming from a guy who threw a beer bottle at the TV in 1986. Best of luck with your surgery.

 

Thanks.

 

I think we may be close to as good next year, even without Kimbrel. We will need to go almost totally injury-free, which is not likely, but maybe some of the injuries we have this year might be offset by these players playing more than 2018:

 

Pedroia

Sale

Devers

ERod

Wright

Moreland

Vazquez

Pearce & Brasier for a full year

 

Even Bogey, Betts and others missed time or played hurt.

 

Vaz and Leon almost have to get better.

 

I see Devers getting better.

 

Maybe JBJ has a full consistent year.

 

Hardly anybody is so old, you can expect age regression.

[moonslav59]

Well Moon , I hope you are back home and on the mend for Christmas. Yes , the stress and anxiety levels were crazy this post season. The game threads were incendiary with the screaming, cursing, lack of faith and the venom spewed at some players. I tried to be the voice of reason , so to speak , but it was out of control. I wound up just avoiding the game threads. The funny part is , this was probably the easiest , smoothest pennant race and post season run ever. There was no reason for the angst. No doubt Kimbrel caused much of it as he was certainly not at his best . However, the bottom line is that the Sox went 11 - 3 . Kimbrel saved six of the eleven and had no blown saves. Pretty sure Kimbrel will not be back . It is just too much money and we have other needs. I wish him and his family the best ( Talk about stress and anxiety) . We won't be as good next year as we were this year , but maybe still good enough to repeat. Hopefully, we all learn a lesson to keep the faith and not get swept away with our emotions and stress levels. And this is coming from a guy who threw a beer bottle at the TV in 1986. Best of luck with your surgery.

 

I usually avoid the game treads for all the reasons you mentioned, but I did get caught up in the Kimbrel rage a bit.

 

The guy has had a WHIP over 1.70 in 3 of his last 4 playoff series. Too scary for my liking, but I know it is a small sample size, and I would not expect him to continue like that going forward.