And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Fisk]

Eovaldi was very good in the regular season also, has great stuff, and probably could be had on a very reasonable contract. Edited December 2, 2018 by Fisk

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi will be cheaper with what I believe to be a greater upside. Can use him in numerous roles.

Don’t get me wrong I want Porcello back also, but want to maximize our chances for 2019.

 

Maximizing 2019 might be minimizing 2020 and beyond.

[Fisk]

Maximizing 2019 might be minimizing 2020 and beyond.

not signing him might also be minimizing 2020 and beyond. Will be hard to get someone with his potential at the years and rate he is going to get.

[moonslav59]

not signing him might also be minimizing 2020 and beyond. Will be hard to get someone with his potential at the years and rate he is going to get.

 

You are assuming a lot.

 

We can probably extend Porcello at $20-22M a year. He's more reliable, and I'm not buying the more upside argument for Eovaldi. Porcello has Cy Young upsdie- proven.

 

Eovaldi is one of the least proven pitchers looking at $60M/4 I can think of.

Edited December 2, 2018 by moonslav59

[Fisk]

You are assuming a lot.

 

We can probably extend Porcello at $20-22M a year. He's more reliable, and I'm not buying the more upsdie argument for Eovaldi. Porcello has Cy Young upsdie- proven.

 

I respectfully disagree with you.

[Fisk]

You are assuming a lot.

 

We can probably extend Porcello at $20-22M a year. He's more reliable, and I'm not buying the more upside argument for Eovaldi. Porcello has Cy Young upsdie- proven.

 

Eovaldi is one of the least proven pitchers looking at $60M/4 I can think of.

I believe we are both assuming, and if Boston and Houston are the 2 hottest teams after him that says something, both have been great at evaluating talent.

[moonslav59]

I believe we are both assuming, and if Boston and Houston are the 2 hottest teams after him that says something, both have been great at evaluating talent.

 

They both have great teams and a closing window.

 

I'm not saying or trying to imply Eovaldi is bad, but assuming Eovaldi is going to pitch even 150+ innings in 3 of the 4 years he likely will get on his next deal may be a huge stretch.

 

Without the playoff heroics, I doubt the sense of wanting him back would be any where near what it is now.

 

I'm not saying we should throw out what he did. He showed some big kahunas out there, and teams need guys like him. The love the team showed him after that 18 inning loss brought tears to my eyes (and his & Porcello). It was storybook!

 

My big concern is our budget. I want us to keep Betts, but I think we will re-set the tax in 2020 or 2021. It will be very hard to keep Betts and have a decent team around him as well. Every dollar committed to 2020 and beyond could and likely will squeeze out someone, if not Betts, then maybe Bogey, Sale, Porcello or JBJ...or some other player we want or need.

 

Sure, if Eovaldi gives us 190+ IP'd for 4 years, we may get by without Sale or Porcello or Bogey or Betts, but thinking of just 2019 worries me. Had we not won this year, the sense of urgency on the closing window would probably change my position. Yes, I'd love to win again in 2019, even if it meant we might not be as competitive in 2020 and beyond, but it's a difficult balancing act, and a lot depends on Henry's plans for if and when we re-set the tax. If he's willing to go 4 more years paying mega taxes, I'm all in on Eovaldi... 200%!.

 

I love the guy.

 

I also plan on being around many more years, and want us to be good in 2021 and beyond.

 

[Fisk]

They both have great teams and a closing window.

 

I'm not saying or trying to imply Eovaldi is bad, but assuming Eovaldi is going to pitch even 150+ innings in 3 of the 4 years he likely will get on his next deal may be a huge stretch.

 

Without the playoff heroics, I doubt the sense of wanting him back would be any where near what it is now.

 

I'm not saying we should throw out what he did. He showed some big kahunas out there, and teams need guys like him. The love the team showed him after that 18 inning loss brought tears to my eyes (and his & Porcello). It was storybook!

 

My big concern is our budget. I want us to keep Betts, but I think we will re-set the tax in 2020 or 2021. It will be very hard to keep Betts and have a decent team around him as well. Every dollar committed to 2020 and beyond could and likely will squeeze out someone, if not Betts, then maybe Bogey, Sale, Porcello or JBJ...or some other player we want or need.

 

Sure, if Eovaldi gives us 190+ IP'd for 4 years, we may get by without Sale or Porcello or Bogey or Betts, but thinking of just 2019 worries me. Had we not won this year, the sense of urgency on the closing window would probably change my position. Yes, I'd love to win again in 2019, even if it meant we might not be as competitive in 2020 and beyond, but it's a difficult balancing act, and a lot depends on Henry's plans for if and when we re-set the tax. If he's willing to go 4 more years paying mega taxes, I'm all in on Eovaldi... 200%!.

 

I love the guy.

 

I also plan on being around many more years, and want us to be good in 2021 and beyond.

 

Believe me I understand all that, I think you are being way over dramatic. They have a window and 19 is a great year to maximize there chances. Are they going to win every year no , they may have a down year in 2021, but John Henry won’t rebuild he will retool I’m fine with that.

[Bellhorn04]

So true.

 

Some risks have not worked out... many have.

 

To me, DD's best deals have been very low risk ones:

 

The Eovaldi trade.

 

The Pearce trade.

 

The Nunez trade.

 

The Brasier signing.

 

 

 

So you're leaving out Chris Freakin' Sale and JD Freakin' Martinez because they don't fit into this category?

 

You've had a thousand posts about Sale and how much you loved the trade.

 

Now you're not even including it in DD's best deals because it wasn't one of the low risk ones.

 

Makes no sense.

[Kimmi]

Every signing comes with some risk , especially with pitchers . But you have to do something . The Yankees have added Paxton and figure to also add Corbin , Machado and possibly Miller . That is a significant improvement . If we lose Kimbrel , Eovaldi and Kelly without getting quality replacements , we are going to have trouble staying on top of the division. We can always find a reason to question every possible deal , but it would be a mistake to do nothing . To expect that replacing Eovaldi with Velazquez or Johnson would work is foolhardy.

 

I would feel pretty good about our team's chances of repeating if we did nothing. That said, I don't think that anyone is suggesting that we do nothing. Of course all moves carry risks.

 

Making a move to counter what the Yankees have done would not be good baseball sense. Making a move that involves a bad contract to counter what the Yankees have done would be even worse baseball sense. We need to make moves based on our needs and based on good baseball decisions, not based on trying to outdo the Yankees.

 

Dombrowski is not going to sit tight. I am confident that he will add, at minimum, a starter and a closer.

[Kimmi]

There is a big difference between doing nothing and signing a 4 year deal worth $60mill for a pitcher whose had a fairly mediocre career and two Tommy John surgeries just because he was good for 22 innings in the postseason...

 

No more than 3 years for Eovaldi. That said, I'd prefer that over a 5 year deal for Kimbrel.

[Kimmi]

That is the state of the game today. Expensive. Risky. I liked the acquisition of Eovaldi from the start. Watching him pitch, one could see the potential. There is a big difference between doing nothing and giving him a big contract. We can hope that he takes less from the Sox because of " all the love " that he received. Then call Houston stupid when they top our offer. Then sign some mediocre journeyman to fill out the rotation. If Eovaldi bombs in Houston, we can gloat. If things don't work out for us , we can always take solace in the fact that we saved money. And that's okay. The best way to avoid making any mistakes is to not take any chances. Play it safe .

 

It's not playing it safe, it's playing it smart.

 

Taking risks is one thing. As you said, every contract is a risk. Being stupid is an entirely different thing.

 

Are you calling Dombrowski stupid?

[Kimmi]

They both have great teams and a closing window.

 

Do the Astros have a closing window?

[Kimmi]

So you're leaving out Chris Freakin' Sale and JD Freakin' Martinez because they don't fit into this category?

 

You've had a thousand posts about Sale and how much you loved the trade.

 

Now you're not even including it in DD's best deals because it wasn't one of the low risk ones.

 

Makes no sense.

 

JD was one of Dombrowski's best moves. Dombrowski had an almost flawless 2018.

 

If he could continue making moves like he did this year, I would be his biggest fan.

 

I would probably even have to change my Theo > Ben > Dave hierarchy.

[cp176]

You are assuming a lot.

 

We can probably extend Porcello at $20-22M a year. He's more reliable, and I'm not buying the more upside argument for Eovaldi. Porcello has Cy Young upsdie- proven.

 

Eovaldi is one of the least proven pitchers looking at $60M/4 I can think of.

 

I would keep Porcello for as long as possible Moon but I think that at this point in time his Cy Young years are behind him as a matter of fact even though I was very happy for him, I think that that year was unusual for him for sure. You know what you have in Porcello. With Eovavldi, man who knows. Obviously it would be a risk I would take. I think that that arm is rebuilt.

[Bellhorn04]

Do the Astros have a closing window?

 

Everyone's window is getting smaller now, I think. We used to talk about the 6 years of cheap control. Well, Mookie is expected to make about 19 million this year and I would expect it'll be 25 million or so in his final arb year. That's not exactly cheap in my books. (Not suggesting he doesn't deserve it, obviously.)

[oldtimer]

No more than 3 years for Eovaldi. That said, I'd prefer that over a 5 year deal for Kimbrel.

 

I have said before and continue to believe we should adhere to a policy where the length of contract is based on the age of the player and also the position he plays. Seven years maximum fpr a guy of 27 or below. Five years for a guy turning 30 and 3 years for a guy of 32. Beyond that age 1 or two years maximum. In the case of pitchers, the risk seems higher, therefore the contract length should reflect that. I didn't like Price's contract, not because of who he was, but the general idea of giving a really long term contract to a guy approaching 30 at the time.

 

The general manager still has to fill the roster and one would hope do so with competitive players. I think most of us believe that if you take risks,some will pay off and some will be busts. We had the Thornburn and Smith experiences on the downside. The other consideration is you have to be competitive to fill the roster with good players. Being smart about it is helpful is well.

 

In the case of Eovaldi, he has shown a lot of value, albeit for a short period. We will at least have to compete with Houston to sign him. Going beyond 3 years to 4 for contract length might be necessary to land him and it looks like he could be a good fit for us. I would go the 4 years but definitely not beyond that. Kimbrel wants 6 years as an arguing position and is probably willing to accept 5. Big bucks for a closer who may be past his prime with a 5 year term is tough to swallow. I would definitely look elsewhere for a closer if Kimbrel sits tight on those contract terms.

[Fisk]

So true.

 

Some risks have not worked out... many have.

 

To me, DD's best deals have been very low risk ones:

 

The Eovaldi trade.

 

The Pearce trade.

 

The Nunez trade.

 

The Brasier signing.

 

 

The only negative deal has been for Thornburg. Carson Smith deal hasn’t worked out but who cares it was for Wade Miley. All his other deals have basically been a net positive.

[notin]

The only negative deal has been for Thornburg. Carson Smith deal hasn’t worked out but who cares it was for Wade Miley. All his other deals have basically been a net positive.

 

Net positive short term.

 

Long term, they will all likely even out, which is the entire point of the trading...

[Fisk]

Net positive short term.

 

Long term, they will all likely even out, which is the entire point of the trading...

 

Agree they can even out, but the goal was a title .

[moonslav59]

Do the Astros have a closing window?

 

Well, they already look like they won't be as good next year. Keuchel, Morton and Marwin Gonzalez are free agents, and they may not replace them in kind.

 

After 2019:

Verlander

Cole

McHugh

Pressly

4th arb: Springer

2nd arb: Osuna, Correa & Devenski

1st arb: Bregman

 

It's not like ours, but they are coming up on some serious and costly choices.

[moonslav59]

I would keep Porcello for as long as possible Moon but I think that at this point in time his Cy Young years are behind him as a matter of fact even though I was very happy for him, I think that that year was unusual for him for sure. You know what you have in Porcello. With Eovavldi, man who knows. Obviously it would be a risk I would take. I think that that arm is rebuilt.

 

Porcello turns 30 this month. He has a long history of durability and dependability. At this age and over the next 2-4 years, he is still capable of having his best career year.

 

Eovaldi turns 29 in February. He's about 15 months younger than Porcello. He's had one season with more than 154 innings. He's had 2 TJ surgeries. I'll agree, he has nastier stuff than Porcello, and in that sense, one can logically argue he has higher upside, but even this year, his WHIP was 1.278.

 

It seems to me, that his short playoff brilliance is being looked upon as what we can expect for 190 innings x 4 years. I think that is a big leap of faith. Expecting Porcello to continue being steady Rick deserves more faith.

 

Look, maybe we can keep both (and let Sale go), but somebody will have to go, if we bring back Eovaldi for 3+ years.

 

[Fisk]

Well, they already look like they won't be as good next year. Keuchel, Morton and Marwin Gonzalez are free agents, and they may not replace them in kind.

 

After 2019:

Verlander

Cole

McHugh

Pressly

4th arb: Springer

2nd arb: Osuna, Correa & Devenski

1st arb: Bregman

 

It's not like ours, but they are coming up on some serious and costly choices.

 

One advantage they have is still a very strong farm, but there pockets will not be as deep as the Sox, No way do they resign both Cole and Verlander next offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

Eovaldi turns 29 in February. He's about 15 months younger than Porcello. He's had one season with more than 154 innings. He's had 2 TJ surgeries. I'll agree, he has nastier stuff than Porcello, and in that sense, one can logically argue he has higher upside, but even this year, his WHIP was 1.278.

 

It seems to me, that his short playoff brilliance is being looked upon as what we can expect for 190 innings x 4 years. I think that is a big leap of faith. Expecting Porcello to continue being steady Rick deserves more faith.

 

 

Eovaldi's combined WHIP for the 2018 regular season was 1.126. His FIP was 3.60. His K/BB was 5.05. All good.

 

This should not be about Eovaldi vs. Porcello. But Porcello will be a free agent after 2019.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi's combined WHIP for the 2018 regular season was 1.126. His FIP was 3.60. His K/BB was 5.05. All good.

 

This should not be about Eovaldi vs. Porcello. But Porcello will be a free agent after 2019.

 

Yes, I should have said that was his Sox WHIP.

 

It might not be Eovaldi vs Porcello, but my guess is that by having a $15M contract on the books next year will be a big factor in deciding to let Porcello or Sale walk without replacing them in kind.

 

I may be wrong, but I'm a firm believer than Henry will demand a re-set of the tax after 2020. (Some feel it might be after 2019.) If that is true, the planning begins now or actually began already, when we haven't sign anybody for long term deals after the Price deal. Moreland, Peacre, Nunez and JD's opt out are all under 3 years.

 

[Fisk]

Signing Eovaldi is about maximizing our chances in 19, and hedging against losing Porcello or Sale next offseason. To me it’s a no brainer if it’s 15-16 million a year for 3-4 years.

[moonslav59]

Signing Eovaldi is about maximizing our chances in 19, and hedging against losing Porcello or Sale next offseason. To me it’s a no brainer if it’s 15-16 million a year for 3-4 years.

 

I get the 2019 argument, but signing Eovaldi will likely cause us to lose Porcello or Sale. I don't see it as a "hedge". It's a replacement.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I should have said that was his Sox WHIP.

 

It might not be Eovaldi vs Porcello, but my guess is that by having a $15M contract on the books next year will be a big factor in deciding to let Porcello or Sale walk without replacing them in kind.

 

 

I'm pretty sure they will be taking all that into consideration. It certainly seems unlikely they'll be able to retain both Sale and Porcello if they do sign Eovaldi, with Price already on the books.

 

The thing is we have a small window. If we don't sign Eovaldi, presumably we have to sign another starter instead, and the options don't look that great.

[Bellhorn04]

In 2013 Ben signed Dempster at an AAV of 13 or 13.25 million. And he was just expected to be a back of the rotation innings-eater.

 

Pitching is just expensive.

[Fisk]

I get the 2019 argument, but signing Eovaldi will likely cause us to lose Porcello or Sale. I don't see it as a "hedge". It's a replacement.

It could be a hedge or a replacement.