And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

If we just want defense at 3B, assuming in a back-up role, we have Lin.

 

If Nunez can get his knee fixed, he's an upgrade on defense (maybe for late innings).'

 

Devers is our starting 3Bman. I felt that even before the Pearce signing.

 

I agree with Dewey. The wanting defense at 3B was a roundabout way of letting Devers know where he needs to improve.

 

I saw some improvement last year, but he still needs to work on his footwork and arm accuracy. He's got nice reflexes and moves pretty quickly, at times.

 

3B is not a big concern to me, as I see Devers offense taking a big step up next year, which will more than make up for any slow growth on defense.

 

It’s possible.

 

The Sox might have a fourth bench spot open, which means they might have room for a third baseman late inning defensive player. Or a second baseman. Or an actual fourth outfielder. Or Swihart.

 

 

This assumes Pedroia is on the DL, which he might not be....

[moonslav59]

It’s possible.

 

The Sox might have a fourth bench spot open, which means they might have room for a third baseman late inning defensive player. Or a second baseman. Or an actual fourth outfielder. Or Swihart.

 

 

This assumes Pedroia is on the DL, which he might not be....

 

Unless we know Pedey's not going to be healthy, I think we wait to fill that possible 25th slot.

[notin]

I

Unless we know Pedey's not going to be healthy, I think we wait to fill that possible 25th slot.

 

I imagine DD has a pretty good idea about Pedroia already...

[moonslav59]

I

 

I imagine DD has a pretty good idea about Pedroia already...

 

While true, if it looks like Pedey should be ready for the 25 man roster by opening day, he also must know the fragility of his status and how it all can change on a dime (or a slip on some wet grass).

[S5Dewey]

While true, if it looks like Pedey should be ready for the 25 man roster by opening day, he also must know the fragility of his status and how it all can change on a dime (or a slip on some wet grass).

 

...or another spiking by a cheap-shot SS.

[moonslav59]

It sure would be great if Pedey could return to nearly the same form he used to be, but it is far from likely.

 

1. Betts

2. Beni

3. Bogey

4. JD

5. Devers

6. Moreland/Pearce

7. Pedroia

8. JBJ

9. Vaz/Leon

 

[Larry Cook]

While true, if it looks like Pedey should be ready for the 25 man roster by opening day, he also must know the fragility of his status and how it all can change on a dime (or a slip on some wet grass).

 

Pedrioa probably can not be counted on to play more than 80 games, so we will need to have a platoon at second base.

 

I know some people think holt can be that guy, but let’s face it, Holt wears down considerably when he plays too much.

 

Add in the fact that if we keep 3 catchers again this year, we won’t have room on the 25 man roster to keep anymore bench players unless we shorten the bullpen.

 

Bottom line is desperate Dave needs to know by mid March what pedrioa’s situation is, one way or the other.

 

I personally think a healthy pedrioa for 80 games is a win for us.

[moonslav59]

Pedrioa probably can not be counted on to play more than 80 games, so we will need to have a platoon at second base.

 

I know some people think holt can be that guy, but let’s face it, Holt wears down considerably when he plays too much.

 

Add in the fact that if we keep 3 catchers again this year, we won’t have room on the 25 man roster to keep anymore bench players unless we shorten the bullpen.

 

Bottom line is desperate Dave needs to know by mid March what pedrioa’s situation is, one way or the other.

 

I personally think a healthy pedrioa for 80 games is a win for us.

 

I'm not counting on 1 inning from Pedey.

 

We still won't need to address 2B until maybe mid season, if ever.

 

Holt & Nunez with help from Lin should be fine.

[Nick]

Reading between the lines, DD expects 2019 to be the last year for our 1B tandem. That's savings of close to $13M.

Next year will be last year for Nunez and his $5M.

Pablo's $18M comes off the books.

Sale's $15M also comes off along with Porcello's $22M.

JD can opt out and saves us $22M.

Xander's arb figure is $11M.

I can see Pedey retiring after 2019 season. That's another $13M. We're up close to $120M. Our current CB Payroll is $225M. That figure is reduced to $105M for 2020 before arbitration raises. Set aside $20M for arbitration raises. Tax limit is $208M for 2020.

That leaves us approximately $83M to 'go for it' in 2020.

 

C Vazquez

1B Chavis?

2B Hernandez?

SS Lin?

3B Devers

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH Dalbec?

 

SP Sale, E Rod, Johnson, Hector (Wright is FA)

Bullpen....???//

 

Are we better off signing Eovaldi and Porcello (2019 and 2020) versus signing just Sale? ($40M for two SP versus $33M for one?) Or can we sign Eovaldi and Sale for $50M (again for 2020, Eovaldi would add $17M to 2019 payroll)

We'd have $33M left to either sign JD or Xander.

 

For 2021, we can then focus on signing Betts and letting JB go. In reality, JB's/Betts old payroll amounts should conver Betts new contract.

 

I don't see a cliff as long as we insert cheap pieces for bullpen, 1B and 2B.

[moonslav59]

I think 2021 is the reset year.

 

Pedey won't leave money on the table.

 

We can't pay all this...

 

$30M Price

$30+M Betts

$28+M Sale

$22+M Bogey

$20+M JD

$18+M JBJ

$14M Pedey

and keep some of the Porcellos, Eovaldis,and whatever closer we pick up.

 

We'll also start seeing arb raises for Beni, ERod, and others.

 

(We can compete in 2020, if we spend heavy.)

[Station 13]

I find it hard to believe JBJ is 18+M.

[sk7326]

I never thought I'd be saying this now but given the SSS of the playoffs and the fact that I'm hoping he's going to work on his defense in the off season I wouldn't be upset with seeing Devers penciled in as the starting 3B in 2019.

 

As I've always said, I'll give up a little defense at the corners to get offense there. Devers has shown the potential to bring that offense to the position and, while nobody will confuse him with Brooks Robinson, at the same time he'll be good enough with just a little improvement.

 

IMO Cora's comment about wanting a defensive 3B was meant to light a fire under Devers.

 

Devers is the starting 3B. Defense needs to get better, but he certainly is physically capable of doing it. He will be better offensively - heck, he was terrific with the bat against the team's toughest opponents.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nick, you’re delusional if you think Pedey leaves money on the table. Pedey signed a below market AAV deal and traded it for length. He’s earned his money.

 

Here the deal on your monetary projections moon.

 

Sale isn’t gonna be $28 mil plus. He’s either gonna be $34 mil plus (over Greinke’s deal) or he will be damaged goods post surgery. If he roars back in 2019, then he’s in line for a record breaking contract

 

Bogey might not have lived up to his “potential”, but he’s been a touch below Machado in WAR since they came into the league. Bogey posted his best power and counting number season, has shaken off his defensive inefficiencies and will hit the market as a 27 yr old. He’s at least a $25+ mil AAV guy, and if he repeats 2018, he might get $30 mil +.

 

Betts is gonna get Harper money plus two years’ worth of interest. He’s a lock for $33+ mil or so

 

Bradley is the hardest to pin down. I’ve had him at $15 mil plus, only because he’ll be older than the above guys and his calling card is CF defense, which will wane as he crosses the 30 age mark

 

JD, if he opts out, will get a $25+ mil AAV contract. If he repeats 2018, teams will be lining up for his bat. He just hit FA at the wrong time last year

 

If the Sox keep all of the above, they’ll add $132 mil to the $44 mil owed Price and Pedroia. That’s $176 mil for 7 guys, 6 who can still play. By the time they’ll have to pay Betts, Beni and ERod will be well into arb and Devers will have just started. Porcello would be gone. You’d have 2 rotation holes, an entire pen, C, 1B, and 2B to account for as well as your bench spots. And that’s assuming none of the guys you’ve locked up don’t start to underachieve or get hurt.

 

This is why cliff’s exist

Edited November 24, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

I find it hard to believe JBJ is 18+M.

 

I'm assuming he remains consistent on offense going forward.

 

Big if?

 

Maybe.

[moonslav59]

Nick, you’re delusional if you think Pedey leaves money on the table. Pedey signed a below market AAV deal and traded it for length. He’s earned his money.

 

Here the deal on your monetary projections moon.

 

Sale isn’t gonna be $28 mil plus. He’s either gonna be $34 mil plus (over Greinke’s deal) or he will be damaged goods post surgery. If he roars back in 2019, then he’s in line for a record breaking contract

 

Bogey might not have lived up to his “potential”, but he’s been a touch below Machado in WAR since they came into the league. Bogey posted his best power and counting number season, has shaken off his defensive inefficiencies and will hit the market as a 27 yr old. He’s at least a $25+ mil AAV guy, and if he repeats 2018, he might get $30 mil +.

 

Betts is gonna get Harper money plus two years’ worth of interest. He’s a lock for $33+ mil or so

 

Bradley is the hardest to pin down. I’ve had him at $15 mil plus, only because he’ll be older than the above guys and his calling card is CF defense, which will wane as he crosses the 30 age mark

 

JD, if he opts out, will get a $25+ mil AAV contract. If he repeats 2018, teams will be lining up for his bat. He just hit FA at the wrong time last year

 

If the Sox keep all of the above, they’ll add $132 mil to the $44 mil owed Price and Pedroia. That’s $176 mil for 7 guys, 6 who can still play. By the time they’ll have to pay Betts, Beni and ERod will be well into arb and Devers will have just started. Porcello would be gone. You’d have 2 rotation holes, an entire pen, C, 1B, and 2B to account for as well as your bench spots. And that’s assuming none of the guys you’ve locked up don’t start to underachieve or get hurt.

 

This is why cliff’s exist

 

Lots of "ifs". Yes, it is likely some of my projections were low, but that's why I put the "+" next to the lowish number.

 

I could certainly see...

 

$35M Betts

$33M Sale

$30M Price

$28M Bogey

$23M JD

$15M JBJ

$14M Pedey

 

That's about $180M for just 7 out of 40 roster slots.

 

[Dojji]

I find it hard to believe JBJ is 18+M.

 

Agreed, Lorenzo Cain provided similar production to the Brewers for around $16M AAV

 

I think we can all agree that Cain is a little better than JBJ on the whole. He's nearly as good as JBJ on D and has much more offensive upside.

[Bellhorn04]

A $15M projection for JBJ seems about right.

[moonslav59]

Agreed, Lorenzo Cain provided similar production to the Brewers for around $16M AAV

 

I think we can all agree that Cain is a little better than JBJ on the whole. He's nearly as good as JBJ on D and has much more offensive upside.

 

It's pretty close....

 

JBJ 2015-2018 (Last 4 years)

.772 OPS

 

Cain 2014-2017 (4 years before signing)

.789 OPS

 

Before his FA year, Cain had just one season with an OPS over .751 (160+ PAs)

 

JBJ has had 2 over .830.

 

I'm kinda thinking JBJ has more offensive "upside", if he can keep the consistency he found the last 4 months of this season (.787 last 98 games, not counting the playoffs).

Edited November 24, 2018 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

It's pretty close....

 

JBJ 2015-2018 (Last 4 years)

.772 OPS

 

Cain 2014-2017 (4 years before signing)

.789 OPS

 

Before his FA year, Cain had just one season with an OPS over .751 (160+ PAs)

 

JBJ has had 2 over .830.

 

I'm kinda thinking JBJ has more offensive "upside", if he can keep the consistency he found the last 4 months of this season (.787 last 98 games, not counting the playoffs).

 

Are we asking too much offensively of Bradley. Are we going to have to adjust to him being a streaky guy (with a really low nadir and mediocre highs) however a guy who always plays great defense.

[S5Dewey]

Are we asking too much offensively of Bradley. Are we going to have to adjust to him being a streaky guy (with a really low nadir and mediocre highs) however a guy who always plays great defense.

 

This is something I can live with, especially considering that he won't be commanding a Harper/Trout/Mookie type salary.

[S5Dewey]

It's pretty close....

 

JBJ 2015-2018 (Last 4 years)

.772 OPS

 

Cain 2014-2017 (4 years before signing)

.789 OPS

 

Before his FA year, Cain had just one season with an OPS over .751 (160+ PAs)

 

JBJ has had 2 over .830.

 

I'm kinda thinking JBJ has more offensive "upside", if he can keep the consistency he found the last 4 months of this season (.787 last 98 games, not counting the playoffs).

 

If we're talking about two guys who are essentially the same and we've got one of them why would we want to make a deal to replace him with other one?

[notin]

If we're talking about two guys who are essentially the same and we've got one of them why would we want to make a deal to replace him with other one?

 

Are people suggesting trading Bradley for Cain? Why would either team make that deal?

[BillyWilliams]

If we just want defense at 3B, assuming in a back-up role, we have Lin.

 

If Nunez can get his knee fixed, he's an upgrade on defense (maybe for late innings).'

 

Devers is our starting 3Bman. I felt that even before the Pearce signing.

 

I agree with Dewey. The wanting defense at 3B was a roundabout way of letting Devers know where he needs to improve.

 

I saw some improvement last year, but he still needs to work on his footwork and arm accuracy. He's got nice reflexes and moves pretty quickly, at times.

 

3B is not a big concern to me, as I see Devers offense taking a big step up next year, which will more than make up for any slow growth on defense.

 

I call ******** on this. If devers didn't know he needs to improve his defense he's either blind, stupid or both.......

[moonslav59]

Are we asking too much offensively of Bradley. Are we going to have to adjust to him being a streaky guy (with a really low nadir and mediocre highs) however a guy who always plays great defense.

 

I've always thought any offense JBJ gives us is gravy, but I do see an upside with his offense. It's not fantasy. The guy hit over .830 for over 900 straight PAs (2015 to the start of 2017).

 

He had his longest consistent streak of his career this year (from late May through the playoffs).

 

I'm not saying I expect .790-.830 consistently going forward, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

If he has a couple decent years, he may get $15-18M in a contract.

[moonslav59]

I call ******** on this. If devers didn't know he needs to improve his defense he's either blind, stupid or both.......

 

...so Cora really wants us to acquire a defensive 3Bman despite all our other higher needs and the fact that we already have Lin?

[moonslav59]

Are people suggesting trading Bradley for Cain? Why would either team make that deal?

 

The talk was about what JBJ might be worth as a FA in 2 years. Cain was a good comp.

[moonslav59]

If we're talking about two guys who are essentially the same and we've got one of them why would we want to make a deal to replace him with other one?

 

Who's talking a deal?

[Bellhorn04]

...so Cora really wants us to acquire a defensive 3Bman despite all our other higher needs and the fact that we already have Lin?

 

Does anybody have the actual quote from Cora?

[notin]

The talk was about what JBJ might be worth as a FA in 2 years. Cain was a good comp.

 

In that respect, it does make sense. But Bradley is probably 4th in terms of important Killer Bs.

[Kimmi]

I never thought I'd be saying this now but given the SSS of the playoffs and the fact that I'm hoping he's going to work on his defense in the off season I wouldn't be upset with seeing Devers penciled in as the starting 3B in 2019.

 

As I've always said, I'll give up a little defense at the corners to get offense there. Devers has shown the potential to bring that offense to the position and, while nobody will confuse him with Brooks Robinson, at the same time he'll be good enough with just a little improvement.

 

IMO Cora's comment about wanting a defensive 3B was meant to light a fire under Devers.

 

I can't see Devers not being our starting 3B next year. He's a work in progress but he is going to be something special. With him, we have to have patience.