And the off season begins (2018-19)

[kenmeister]

Panda was a stupid contract, but Pedroia wasn’t. The money wasn’t outrageous. It’s just that the guy got hurt. That’s going to happen...

 

I have to admit I wasn't crazy about the Pedroia extension. He just gets hurt too often.

 

You know, it's funny. I get all excited about prospects, but I find it much easier to part with veterans. The only veteran player in recent memory that I was pissed they lost was Jon Lester. Oh, and going back a little further they should have locked Beltre up at 3rd.

 

Edit: oh and Rich Hill

Edited November 22, 2018 by kenmeister

[moonslav59]

We have been a top team now for 3 years running and our draft picks have reflected that. Baseballs attempts to create parity penalize the better teams. We have a good core of players and we can outspend some teams to keep it going for a while, but eventually it does catch up. We hope that the FO does not sign more silly contracts like Panda and possibly Pedroia that further limit us. One hope is that our front office is smarter than some and can obtain improvement in trades by being smart. Even that is in question as the marketplace for players is pretty big and we certainly don't rule there.

 

I don't disagree, and I know it is not impossible to find talent without glitzy prospects. DD has done a fine job getting us key players like Nunez, Eovaldi and Pearce mid season for scraps, but there is no doubt the key to our recent success is the in house infusion of young stars we drafted and signed internationally. Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Beni, Devers, Barnes and ERod (through a salary dump trade) have been essential to our championship roster construction.

 

To me, it is nearly impossible to construct teams like this without some major youth infusion every couple or three years. We added Beni and Devers not too long ago, and they have been a big help. Who are our next Beni or Devers?

 

I suppose we can hope for 20 more Brasiers, Eovaldis, Pearces and Nunezs, but I'm not sure how realistic that is. Our best hope is that maybe Henry okays spending $250M in 2019 and $270 in 2020 and on and on...

 

[moonslav59]

I have to admit I wasn't crazy about the Pedroia extension. He just gets hurt too often.

 

 

When we extended Pedey in the middle of 2013, he had virtually no injury history. Now, one could argue he plays the game hard and maybe a bit recklessly, and injuries were bound to happen, but at the time of the signing, Pedey hardly missed any time due to injury, except in 2010 (75 games played) and a tiny amount in 2012.

 

139 games 2007 ROY

157 games 2008 MVP

154 games 2009 (.819 OPS)

75 in 2010

159 in 2011 (.861)

141 in 2012 (.797)

160 in 2013 (led league in PAs with 724)

 

He's only played in over 135 games once since 2013 (ages 30-34).

[S5Dewey]

When we extended Pedey in the middle of 2013, he had virtually no injury history. Now, one could argue he plays the game hard and maybe a bit recklessly, and injuries were bound to happen, but at the time of the signing, Pedey hardly missed any time due to injury, except in 2010 (75 games played) and a tiny amount in 2012.

 

139 games 2007 ROY

157 games 2008 MVP

154 games 2009 (.819 OPS)

75 in 2010

159 in 2011 (.861)

141 in 2012 (.797)

160 in 2013 (led league in PAs with 724)

 

He's only played in over 135 games once since 2013 (ages 30-34).

 

I don't have any hassle with Pedey's contract. It was even a bit of a hometown discount at the time and it locked up one of the best 2B in baseball. To think that he wouldn't have done at least as well elsewhere is naive.

 

Of course there are some risks in those long term contracts and Pedey's in particular since he plays hard and throws his body at everything. That's why the contract favored him. As with any insurance policy he was betting he'd get hurt and the FO was betting that he wouldn't. What was unforeseeable was that his career would get shortened by a cheap-shot artist spiking him in the leg and ruining his knee. Were it not for that we'd have had him for this run in 2018 as well as for 2019 and very possibly into the future, albeit with reduced playing time.

 

The good news regarding his contract (if there is any) is that his contract peaked in 2018 @ $16M. Now it's "only" $15M, $13M & $12M until it expires in 2021.

[Dojji]

Now, one could argue he plays the game hard and maybe a bit recklessly, and injuries were bound to happen,

 

Yes, one could in fact argue that.

 

In fact, one DID argue that. I made that point over and over again at the time, only to be dismissed as a pessimist.

 

Oh, and Pedroia DID have an extensive injury history at the time of signing. Don't conflate "no missed time" with "no injuries." Pedroia played through some pretty nasty stuff from time to time.

 

That, and the history of his body type was a history of guys who didn't age well. Below average sized guys have to use their bodies harder to play at an elite level, and it tends to tell on them earlier than average sized players.

 

His injuries were not out o nowhere nor did they start happening only after the extension, nor is it true that there were no other warning signs given his age, body type and the history of similar players.

[BillyWilliams]

When we extended Pedey in the middle of 2013, he had virtually no injury history. Now, one could argue he plays the game hard and maybe a bit recklessly, and injuries were bound to happen, but at the time of the signing, Pedey hardly missed any time due to injury, except in 2010 (75 games played) and a tiny amount in 2012.

 

139 games 2007 ROY

157 games 2008 MVP

154 games 2009 (.819 OPS)

75 in 2010

159 in 2011 (.861)

141 in 2012 (.797)

160 in 2013 (led league in PAs with 724)

 

He's only played in over 135 games once since 2013 (ages 30-34).

 

Given how he plays with wreckless abandonment while being built like a midget I think he was destined to break down.

[moonslav59]

I don't have any hassle with Pedey's contract. It was even a bit of a hometown discount at the time and it locked up one of the best 2B in baseball. To think that he wouldn't have done at least as well elsewhere is naive.

 

Of course there are some risks in those long term contracts and Pedey's in particular since he plays hard and throws his body at everything. That's why the contract favored him. As with any insurance policy he was betting he'd get hurt and the FO was betting that he wouldn't. What was unforeseeable was that his career would get shortened by a cheap-shot artist spiking him in the leg and ruining his knee. Were it not for that we'd have had him for this run in 2018 as well as for 2019 and very possibly into the future, albeit with reduced playing time.

 

The good news regarding his contract (if there is any) is that his contract peaked in 2018 @ $16M. Now it's "only" $15M, $13M & $12M until it expires in 2021.

 

At the time, I thought it was a good deal for the team. It's hard to arm-chair this one, for me.

 

His contract will hurt the luxury tax the next few years, but at least it's not $22M or more.

[moonslav59]

Yes, one could in fact argue that.

 

In fact, one DID argue that. I made that point over and over again at the time, only to be dismissed as a pessimist.

 

Oh, and Pedroia DID have an extensive injury history at the time of signing. Don't conflate "no missed time" with "no injuries." Pedroia played through some pretty nasty stuff from time to time.

 

That, and the history of his body type was a history of guys who didn't age well. Below average sized guys have to use their bodies harder to play at an elite level, and it tends to tell on them earlier than average sized players.

 

His injuries were not out o nowhere nor did they start happening only after the extension, nor is it true that there were no other warning signs given his age, body type and the history of similar players.

 

All players play through injuries, and Pedey did very well, when playing hurt.

 

Hurray! You were right about Pedey getting hurt at the time of the signing. Good for you.

[moonslav59]

Given how he plays with wreckless abandonment while being built like a midget I think he was destined to break down.

 

I get that, and actually made that point in this post, but at the time of the signing, Pedey had not missed much time or played poorly while injured much at all.

 

The length of the contract was a gamble, and it looks like we lost. To me, it's still nothing like the CC and Pablo signings.

[sk7326]

I get that, and actually made that point in this post, but at the time of the signing, Pedey had not missed much time or played poorly while injured much at all.

 

The length of the contract was a gamble, and it looks like we lost. To me, it's still nothing like the CC and Pablo signings.

 

At worst you are looking at $110M for 13.0 WAR ... which (amazingly) is actually more of a "meh" than a "loss"

[notin]

I have to admit I wasn't crazy about the Pedroia extension. He just gets hurt too often.

 

You know, it's funny. I get all excited about prospects, but I find it much easier to part with veterans. The only veteran player in recent memory that I was pissed they lost was Jon Lester. Oh, and going back a little further they should have locked Beltre up at 3rd.

 

Edit: oh and Rich Hill

 

Everyone gets excited about prospects over veterans. Prospects are all wrapped up in glimmering layers of potential and the ceiling is unknown!! Why this 22yo could be the next Bryce Harper!! Yet everyone knows and no one wants to admit it’s far more likely he is the next Bryce Brentz.

 

Fans overreact to stupid levels sometimes. Jacoby Ellsbury is coming so we need to run Coco Crisp out of town!! Jon Papelbon needs to go because he is in the way of Daniel Bard assuming his rightful role as closer!!

 

But the veterans are usually veterans for a reason. A lot of them have beaten out younger kids for their jobs before and can do it again.

 

And never fall for “rebuilding.” With a few exceptions,“rebuilding” is the baseball euphemism for “going cheap.”

[notin]

At worst you are looking at $110M for 13.0 WAR ... which (amazingly) is actually more of a "meh" than a "loss"

 

Typically big contracts involve paying for production in the early years only. Pedroia is no different. The AAV on his contract is still pretty low ($13mill-ish) so it shouldn’t be a big deal. If Dombrowski can’t build a good team for $196 mill, then maybe it’s time to step aside...

[S5Dewey]

At the time, I thought it was a good deal for the team. It's hard to arm-chair this one, for me.

 

His contract will hurt the luxury tax the next few years, but at least it's not $22M or more.

 

Thanks, Manny!

[oldtimer]

Typically big contracts involve paying for production in the early years only. Pedroia is no different. The AAV on his contract is still pretty low ($13mill-ish) so it shouldn’t be a big deal. If Dombrowski can’t build a good team for $196 mill, then maybe it’s time to step aside...

 

Sentimentality is laudible but it works against fielding our best team. If you had that $13 mil you could have signed a Merrifield and mpy taken a risk with Pedey. I doubt Pedey can come back to the 25 man roster and give us even 100 games this year. Hope for his sake and ours I am wrong and he will come back as at least an average value 2nd baseman.

[sk7326]

Sentimentality is laudible but it works against fielding our best team. If you had that $13 mil you could have signed a Merrifield and mpy taken a risk with Pedey. I doubt Pedey can come back to the 25 man roster and give us even 100 games this year. Hope for his sake and ours I am wrong and he will come back as at least an average value 2nd baseman.

 

Merrifield is a major fluke rule candidate - though probably a decent starter. He has shown power in the bigs which he never sniffed in his minor league career - while not being a very good defensive 2B. And he's 29 already. I am happy taking a pass.

[jacksonianmarch]

Merrifield was a 5 WAR player in 2018 and stole 45 bases. He’s an elite player right now, but he turns 30 in two months and doesn’t have a lot of power, and factor in the .352 BABIP and he isn’t as good as 2018 showed. He’s probably more the 2017 near 3 WAR player than last year’s version. Either way, he’s an average defender who makes good contact and steals a ton of bases. You could do worse. That being said, he’s gonna fetch a hell of a return for the Royals when he’s moved and I don’t think the Sox have the parts unless they start with chavis and then gut the rest of the farm.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox won't be doing anything about second base. Their needs are strictly in the pitching department and those will be costly enough.

[notin]

The Sox won't be doing anything about second base. Their needs are strictly in the pitching department and those will be costly enough.

 

However they might do something about third base as Cora has expressed interest in a defensive player to compliment Devers. Now said defensive player might be capable of playing 2b.

 

Neil Walker, for example, is an excellent defensive 3b who happens to have a lot of experience at 2b as well. And if last year is any indication (1yr $4mill), he’s not a bank breaker...

[jacksonianmarch]

Walker signed on last year to start. My guess is he will be looking to recoup his value and sign on with a team that’ll offer him a starting gig. If the Sox offer him 2b, then you’ve got something. If he’s offered to be a defensive backup or part time player, you’re not gonna get him.

[Dojji]

However they might do something about third base as Cora has expressed interest in a defensive player to compliment Devers. Now said defensive player might be capable of playing 2b.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nunezed02.shtml

[S5Dewey]

Walker signed on last year to start. My guess is he will be looking to recoup his value and sign on with a team that’ll offer him a starting gig. If the Sox offer him 2b, then you’ve got something. If he’s offered to be a defensive backup or part time player, you’re not gonna get him.

 

I've wondered how often a player is offered a guaranteed position. Would a GM make an offer to a person, say Bryce Harper, saying, "If you will come and play for us I'll promise you that you'll play Right Field in at least 150 games and bat 4th." Wouldn't that be a stupid offer to make? It would tie the manager's hands. What if Harper continued to bat ~.250 and his power started to decline?

 

What if they guaranteed to Walker that he would be the starting 2B and Pedey made a resurgence OR Walker's offense hit a decline? Wouldn't the FO be hog-tied to that guarantee?

 

I would sooner think Walker would be told that there's every possibility that he'd either be playing 2B or 3B in 125 or more games but the Sox wouldn't be guaranteeing anything. You have to perform to get playing time and if you do, you will.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nobody gives a guarantee, but every FA asks how they’ll fit into the team’s plans. Lying to the player doesn’t help them with future FA’s. Most GM’s are honest with how they fit into team plans

[moonslav59]

The Sox won't be doing anything about second base. Their needs are strictly in the pitching department and those will be costly enough.

 

I agree. They may try something mid season (like we did with Kinsler this year), but I doubt we do anything this winter, except leave some wiggle room in the budget fior summer deals.

[sk7326]

Right - I'd list 2B as a non-problem. Between Holt, Nunez and whatever Pedroia can offer, there is more than enough floor to go forward.

[notin]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nunezed02.shtml

 

So the defensive replacement for 3b should be the potential starting 2b?

 

Cora apparently made the comment about wanting a defensive 3b after Nunez option was picked up. I think he would like someone else.

 

It may not happen, but it’s on the wish list...

[notin]

Walker signed on last year to start. My guess is he will be looking to recoup his value and sign on with a team that’ll offer him a starting gig. If the Sox offer him 2b, then you’ve got something. If he’s offered to be a defensive backup or part time player, you’re not gonna get him.

 

Walker will absolutely prioritize a starting role over a reserve one, as will every free agent on this market. But will he get one and what will he do if he doesn’t?

 

And given the possible absence of Pedroia and the limited budget of the Sox, Boston might be his best chance at a starting role.

 

(Don’t forget his “starting role” in New York was temporary and everyone knew it, including Walker.)

[jacksonianmarch]

A lot of the replacements can be had after the offseason planning is complete. Here’s the deal, with Sale finishing the year looking hurt, ERod’s health issues, and David Price another year older, the Sox cannot go into 2019 with Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and BJ as their top 5. Another RHP, proven in the bigs and preferably of the power variety is needed. I could see the Sox trying for Morton it Eovaldi, to be totally honest. Morton lives in DE and if he leaves Houston, would prefer the east coast. He’s also a big time power pitcher and someone with a track record of kicking our asses. Think about it this way. If you didn’t have Eovaldi, there’s likely a game 5 in Boston with our playoff ace on the hill and a clearly diminished Sale. You can’t expect to get through NYY without another RHP and with the way things are breaking these days, the road to the World Series will go through Boston or NYY. And the likelihood is Toronto and Baltimore will be such steaming piles of s*** that our two teams will likely be fighting for the 1 seed and a WC berth

[Dojji]

So the defensive replacement for 3b should be the potential starting 2b?

 

Cora apparently made the comment about wanting a defensive 3b after Nunez option was picked up. I think he would like someone else.

 

It may not happen, but it’s on the wish list...

 

If Pedroia can't start the starting 2B will be Brock Holt, with Nunez in reserve and as a possible LIDR.

 

I would expect both men to play significantly second base, and it will come down to an extent to who's hitting better, but Holt actually covered the position very well last year and that has to give him the inside track to start with, at least IMHO.

 

I can see a use for a defensive third baseman to shore up the weakest position in our theoretical starting infield, but Nunez can do that job, and not locking a roster space down there preserves the team's versatility in ways that may prove valuable.

 

if I had to divide infield responsibilities between Holt and Nunez, my impression is that Holt has slightly better range and Nunez has a somewhat better arm, so I'd favor Holt more at second, and Nunez more on the left side of the infield.

Edited November 23, 2018 by Dojji

[S5Dewey]

I never thought I'd be saying this now but given the SSS of the playoffs and the fact that I'm hoping he's going to work on his defense in the off season I wouldn't be upset with seeing Devers penciled in as the starting 3B in 2019.

 

As I've always said, I'll give up a little defense at the corners to get offense there. Devers has shown the potential to bring that offense to the position and, while nobody will confuse him with Brooks Robinson, at the same time he'll be good enough with just a little improvement.

 

IMO Cora's comment about wanting a defensive 3B was meant to light a fire under Devers.

[moonslav59]

If we just want defense at 3B, assuming in a back-up role, we have Lin.

 

If Nunez can get his knee fixed, he's an upgrade on defense (maybe for late innings).'

 

Devers is our starting 3Bman. I felt that even before the Pearce signing.

 

I agree with Dewey. The wanting defense at 3B was a roundabout way of letting Devers know where he needs to improve.

 

I saw some improvement last year, but he still needs to work on his footwork and arm accuracy. He's got nice reflexes and moves pretty quickly, at times.

 

3B is not a big concern to me, as I see Devers offense taking a big step up next year, which will more than make up for any slow growth on defense.