And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Bellhorn04]

He's 23, started out at 19 with us. Already Pitching in the Majors. Read he hits, 100+ consistently. Did you read that?

 

Bautista pitched 4.1 innings for the Mets last year with a 12.46 ERA. He had a 5.14 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in AA/AAA last year. Not much to get excited about there.

[notin]

He's 23, started out at 19 with us. Already Pitching in the Majors. Read he hits, 100+ consistently. Did you read that?

 

There are plenty of pitchers with 100 mph fastballs who don’t amount to much and the reason is almost always the same - control.

 

Bautista is a mass producer of walks. Since Rookie Ball, he’s always averaged at least 4BB/9 in any season in which he’s had more than 15IP.

 

He might get some control one day, but that was why he was a high upside gamble for the Mets. A high upside gamble, however, is still a gamble...

[OH FOY]

https://risingapple.com/2018/11/18/mets-relievers-acquired-trade/2/

You know Sandy Koufax was wild as hell, when he first came up. Cant teach Power. McDowell too, lots of Power Pitchers when they are YOUNG, have control problems.

[notin]

https://risingapple.com/2018/11/18/mets-relievers-acquired-trade/2/

You know Sandy Koufax was wild as hell, when he first came up. Cant teach Power. McDowell too, lots of Power Pitchers when they are YOUNG, have control problems.

 

True . That’s why many are gambles.

 

And not every gamble pays off. Kopech threw even harder and he was traded. Anyone regret that?

 

Bautista’s control was probably a big reason he never made anyone’s top100 prospect list.

 

The Orioles once had a prospect named Kris Foster who was supposedly throwing 104mph in the minors. Ever heard of him? Probably not. His MLB career consisted of 10 walk-filled innings and he’s been out of baseball for like 15 years.

 

Some gambles don’t pay off. Dombrowski probably figured Bautista to be one of those...

[cp176]

https://risingapple.com/2018/11/18/mets-relievers-acquired-trade/2/

You know Sandy Koufax was wild as hell, when he first came up. Cant teach Power. McDowell too, lots of Power Pitchers when they are YOUNG, have control problems.

 

notin is right again I guess Oh Foy. The Mets had a guy named Sidd Finch back in 1985 who had a fastball clocked at 168 mph. He never made it. Do you remember that guy?

[notin]

notin is right again I guess Oh Foy. The Mets had a guy named Sidd Finch back in 1985 who had a fastball clocked at 168 mph. He never made it. Do you remember that guy?

 

Plymton’s finest work.

 

The biggest legend based on a real pitcher was Steve Dalkowski, a minor leaguer in the 1950’s and 1960’s who fastball was estimated at an absurd 120mph (there were no radar guns at the time). Dalkowski could not have had less control, however, with multiple seasons exceeding 15BB/9. That’s FIFTEEN. Not a typo.

 

Dalkowski was the inspiration for Tim Robbins’ Nuke LaLoosh character in Bull Durham and Brendan Fraser’sSteve Nebraska in The Scout.

 

Oh, and 120mph fastball or not, Dalkowski did not pitch in the majors at any point...

[Larry Cook]

Speaking of control problems, should we take a gamble on Herrera?

[moonslav59]

Speaking of control problems, should we take a gamble on Herrera?

 

He has better control than most other options....

 

Career K/9 and BB/9 and 2018 K/9 & BB/9

 

Herrera

8.8/ 2.7

7.7/ 2.0

 

Familia

9.4/ 3.6

10.4/3.5

 

Ottavino

10.1/ 3.8

13.0/4.2

 

Kimbrel

14.7/3.5

13.9/4.5

 

Kelly

7.2/3.7

9.3/4.4

 

 

 

[Fisk]

I haven’t posted in awhile. What a great year we had. My number one priority this off-season is Evoldai, he makes the rotation elite and helps if we lose Sale or Porcello after 19.

I’m not that concerned with the bullpen, maybe a Robertson or Ottavino and a lesser name. Like our depth in the minors to contribute.

[jacksonianmarch]

Herrera is coming off the same foot injury that caused the Sox to build in insurance for JD. I doubt they throw the closers role his way. Lisfanc injuries are tough

[moonslav59]

I haven’t posted in awhile. What a great year we had. My number one priority this off-season is Evoldai, he makes the rotation elite and helps if we lose Sale or Porcello after 19.

I’m not that concerned with the bullpen, maybe a Robertson or Ottavino and a lesser name. Like our depth in the minors to contribute.

 

I really like Eovaldi, but the point about him helping us in case "we lose Sale or Porcello" is a bit more complex. Signing him to more than 2 years may very well cause us to lose Sale or Porcello due to his added contract and our possible desire to re-set the tax in a year or two.

[cp176]

I really like Eovaldi, but the point about him helping us in case "we lose Sale or Porcello" is a bit more complex. Signing him to more than 2 years may very well cause us to lose Sale or Porcello due to his added contract and our possible desire to re-set the tax in a year or two.

 

3 and some sort of working option and off we go.

[notin]

I really like Eovaldi, but the point about him helping us in case "we lose Sale or Porcello" is a bit more complex. Signing him to more than 2 years may very well cause us to lose Sale or Porcello due to his added contract and our possible desire to re-set the tax in a year or two.

 

 

Or simply because the Sox have $15mill less to spend.

 

And the idea that Eovaldi is going to replace Porcello is ridiculous. Eovaldi has thrown like 236 IP in the last 3 years combined. Porcello threw 191 IP last year alone...

[moonslav59]

Or simply because the Sox have $15mill less to spend.

 

And the idea that Eovaldi is going to replace Porcello is ridiculous. Eovaldi has thrown like 236 IP in the last 3 years combined. Porcello threw 191 IP last year alone...

 

As much as I want Eovaldi, I'd like to keep Porcello and maybe Sale, too, depending on how his durability looks in 2019.

[Fisk]

I really like Eovaldi, but the point about him helping us in case "we lose Sale or Porcello" is a bit more complex. Signing him to more than 2 years may very well cause us to lose Sale or Porcello due to his added contract and our possible desire to re-set the tax in a year or two.

True but I’m going to guess we lose one no matter what Evoldai can be a cheaper more affordable version of Porcello. Will give them a very strong starting 5 this year and buy them another year to replace Porcello for 2020.

[S5Dewey]

I like the idea of signing Evoaldi too, but I'm just wondering if I'm the only person who has it in the back of his mind that you NEVER sign a player based on what they did in one World Series.

 

Am I the only one seeing a decided risk in this?

[moonslav59]

True but I’m going to guess we lose one no matter what Evoldai can be a cheaper more affordable version of Porcello. Will give them a very strong starting 5 this year and buy them another year to replace Porcello for 2020.

 

Porcello is much less of a risk, even if his cost is more.

 

He's been better and more dependable and durable that Eovaldi.

 

Nathan is a huge risk. There's just no getting around it. Before the playoffs started, I doubt anyone would say we should sign him to $60M/4.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love him to come back, but if it's an either/or situation, it's a more complex decision than it seems to be.

 

[moonslav59]

I like the idea of signing Evoaldi too, but I'm just wondering if I'm the only person who has it in the back of his mind that you NEVER sign a player based on what they did in one World Series.

 

Am I the only one seeing a decided risk in this?

 

No. I think there are a few of us that are very hesitant, especially if the deal goes beyond 2-3 years.

[notin]

I like the idea of signing Evoaldi too, but I'm just wondering if I'm the only person who has it in the back of his mind that you NEVER sign a player based on what they did in one World Series.

 

Am I the only one seeing a decided risk in this?

 

 

I’m not really on board with Eovaldi either.

 

I’m starting to think pulling Pomeranz out of the discount bin might have the most merit...

[Bellhorn04]

I like the idea of signing Evoaldi too, but I'm just wondering if I'm the only person who has it in the back of his mind that you NEVER sign a player based on what they did in one World Series.

 

Am I the only one seeing a decided risk in this?

 

Of course there's risk. Plenty of it.

 

I would offer 2 counterpoints:

 

1) Eovaldi actually pitched pretty well in his abbreviated regular season.

 

2) If he gets 4 years and 60 million, that's a lot of dough. But it's only about 50% of what Yu Darvish got, 40% of what Lester got, 30% of what Price got.

[Bellhorn04]

When it comes to pitchers, there's risk with all of them.

 

OTOH there's risk in not having enough pitching.

 

So what are ya gonna do?

 

That's what Mr. Dombrowski is paid to figure out - with Mr. Henry approving the expenditure.

[S5Dewey]

If we sign Evoaldi to that 4/$60 that Bell speculated on that will be the make/break deal of the 2019 for the Sox.

 

If it works out we've got 3 outstanding pitchers going into 2019. That should make the Sox the team to beat at the beginning of the season. If it doesn't work out we've got two outstanding pitchers which may be enough to get the job done as long as the both stay healthy, but it leaves us with no money to sign another pitcher.

[Kimmi]

I like the idea of signing Evoaldi too, but I'm just wondering if I'm the only person who has it in the back of his mind that you NEVER sign a player based on what they did in one World Series.

 

Am I the only one seeing a decided risk in this?

 

My wanting him back is not based on his postseason performance, but rather on his regular season performance. He did post a 2.2 fWAR, along with a 3.81 ERA and a 3.60 FIP. His numbers once he came to Boston are better. Not great, but good enough for the back end of our rotation.

 

If he falters in the rotation, he could end up being a valuable bullpen piece.

 

That said, I would not sign him for more than 3 years.

[dgalehouse]

Every signing comes with some risk , especially with pitchers . But you have to do something . The Yankees have added Paxton and figure to also add Corbin , Machado and possibly Miller . That is a significant improvement . If we lose Kimbrel , Eovaldi and Kelly without getting quality replacements , we are going to have trouble staying on top of the division. We can always find a reason to question every possible deal , but it would be a mistake to do nothing . To expect that replacing Eovaldi with Velazquez or Johnson would work is foolhardy.

[notin]

Every signing comes with some risk , especially with pitchers . But you have to do something . The Yankees have added Paxton and figure to also add Corbin , Machado and possibly Miller . That is a significant improvement . If we lose Kimbrel , Eovaldi and Kelly without getting quality replacements , we are going to have trouble staying on top of the division. We can always find a reason to question every possible deal , but it would be a mistake to do nothing . To expect that replacing Eovaldi with Velazquez or Johnson would work is foolhardy.

 

There is a big difference between doing nothing and signing a 4 year deal worth $60mill for a pitcher whose had a fairly mediocre career and two Tommy John surgeries just because he was good for 22 innings in the postseason...

[cp176]

If we sign Evoaldi to that 4/$60 that Bell speculated on that will be the make/break deal of the 2019 for the Sox.

 

If it works out we've got 3 outstanding pitchers going into 2019. That should make the Sox the team to beat at the beginning of the season. If it doesn't work out we've got two outstanding pitchers which may be enough to get the job done as long as the both stay healthy, but it leaves us with no money to sign another pitcher.

 

It is always risky. You know that. It just boils down to whether or not someone is willing to take the risk. If I have the $, in my mind the risk is limited. He has a rebuilt arm and his upside could be far greater than anything that we have seen from Porcello (former cy young). I would absolutely try to keep Porcello if he did not price himself out. He is an extremely talented middle of the rotation guy. As a matter of fact, I might even overpay for what he gives us. I do not think that it will be a situation of either or though and I don't buy into the concept promoted that it might be. Lots of things could change but down the road if the Sox want Sale, Eovaldi, and Porcello they likely will make it happen regardless of what the people who think they won't be able to afford it say.

[dgalehouse]

There is a big difference between doing nothing and signing a 4 year deal worth $60mill for a pitcher whose had a fairly mediocre career and two Tommy John surgeries just because he was good for 22 innings in the postseason...

 

That is the state of the game today. Expensive. Risky. I liked the acquisition of Eovaldi from the start. Watching him pitch, one could see the potential. There is a big difference between doing nothing and giving him a big contract. We can hope that he takes less from the Sox because of " all the love " that he received. Then call Houston stupid when they top our offer. Then sign some mediocre journeyman to fill out the rotation. If Eovaldi bombs in Houston, we can gloat. If things don't work out for us , we can always take solace in the fact that we saved money. And that's okay. The best way to avoid making any mistakes is to not take any chances. Play it safe .

[cp176]

That is the state of the game today. Expensive. Risky. I liked the acquisition of Eovaldi from the start. Watching him pitch, one could see the potential. There is a big difference between doing nothing and giving him a big contract. We can hope that he takes less from the Sox because of " all the love " that he received. Then call Houston stupid when they top our offer. Then sign some mediocre journeyman to fill out the rotation. If Eovaldi bombs in Houston, we can gloat. If things don't work out for us , we can always take solace in the fact that we saved money. And that's okay. The best way to avoid making any mistakes is to not take any chances. Play it safe .

 

The most successful people in the world (one of whom might be John Henry) are willing to take risks. They realize that playing it safe equates quite often to being afraid to make a mistake which might provide for a good life but it likely won't win you any gold rings. the red sox have won their championships by definitely being willing to take risks.

[moonslav59]

The most successful people in the world (one of whom might be John Henry) are willing to take risks. They realize that playing it safe equates quite often to being afraid to make a mistake which might provide for a good life but it likely won't win you any gold rings. the red sox have won their championships by definitely being willing to take risks.

 

So true.

 

Some risks have not worked out... many have.

 

To me, DD's best deals have been very low risk ones:

 

The Eovaldi trade.

 

The Pearce trade.

 

The Nunez trade.

 

The Brasier signing.

 

 

[Fisk]

Porcello is much less of a risk, even if his cost is more.

 

He's been better and more dependable and durable that Eovaldi.

 

Nathan is a huge risk. There's just no getting around it. Before the playoffs started, I doubt anyone would say we should sign him to $60M/4.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love him to come back, but if it's an either/or situation, it's a more complex decision than it seems to be.

 

 

Eovaldi will be cheaper with what I believe to be a greater upside. Can use him in numerous roles.

Don’t get me wrong I want Porcello back also, but want to maximize our chances for 2019.