And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Larry Cook]

Miami doesn't even care. They got squat for their two former MVPs. They will screw this up.

 

True jeter got raped in the yelich trade and that had to hurt. I guess he treats that trade Like he does when his herpes flair up, just adds a little ointment to get some soothing action.

 

And True jeter did let the Yankees rape him in the Stanton trade, but he made the Steinbrenners swallow the whole contract, I think. And granted the young stienbrenners are naturals at swallowing the whole load, after all they learned it from the best there ever was, their daddy, George!

 

But didn’t Miami sign the Cuban Twins, victor and Victoria? Maybe jeter is finally figuring it out! I know they say “you can’t fix stupid”, but let’s hope that’s not true for jeter’s sake!

 

Ps: I heard the Atlanta front office sent jeter a giant flower basket with a one word card shortly after jeter got control of the team. The card said “thanks”!

[moonslav59]

We have to stop meeting like this. I suggested last month that the farm was going to be rebuilt. It is apt to take more than a month.

 

I was talking to those who claimed the farm would be quickly rebuilt as far back as 2016. Those predictions have fallen far short.

 

On your point, I'm not sure why it will be any easier to do it starting last month. We will have the lowest pick we've ever had, and it might be 10 picks lower, if we ended up over the $40M line this year. Our international pool will be very low as well.

 

I haven't given up hope, but that's all it is right now-- HOPE!

[moonslav59]

The

 

If the Sox sign Eovaldi, will they spend on a reliever?

 

And as they lost about 125 IP from the pen that needs to be replaced, what do they have to trade for another one? One of these relievers will likely be the closer.

 

I think their trade chips include Chavis, Johnson and a catcher (not Leon; he adds nothing to a trade).

 

Reportedly the Sox are working Swihart out as s catcher. This might be to increase his trade appeal, or to make Vazquez available. There seem to be a lot of teams that need catchers right now, and Realmuto and Ramos can only fill two voids (really one, as Miami will need a catcher once they trade Realmuto)...

 

I think we can afford Eovaldi at $15M and still have enough to sign Familia or Ottavino or perhaps Allen and a lesser known set-up man to stay below the $40M mark.

[Larry Cook]

If eovaldi gets signed for stupid money by some other team.

 

Should we look at signing a guy like Happ? We can get him on a three year deal for decent money and he throws we’ll still.

[moonslav59]

If eovaldi gets signed for stupid money by some other team.

 

Should we look at signing a guy like Happ? We can get him on a three year deal for decent money and he throws we’ll still.

 

We really need a RH'd starting pitcher.

[S5Dewey]

We really need a RH'd starting pitcher.

 

Did you ever think THAT would be said in Fenway Park????

[moonslav59]

We really need a RH'd starting pitcher.

 

Top RH's Free Agents (MLBTR Projected Contracts)

 

Eovaldi $15M x 4

 

Morton $16M x 2 (Please, no!)

 

A Sanchez $11M x 2 (A gamble)

 

M Harvey $11M x 2

 

T Cahill $11M x 2

 

L Lynn $8M x 2

 

B Norris $6M x 2

 

G Richards $5M x 2

 

E Santana $6M x 1

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Did you ever think THAT would be said in Fenway Park????

 

Things have changed. The Yanks are now stacked with RH'd hitters. The Sox have 4 LH'd SP'ers, if you count Brian Johnson with Sale, Price & ERod.

 

Plus, Porcello does pretty well vs LHBs, too.

 

[Larry Cook]

We really need a RH'd starting pitcher.

 

I think I would rather have a pitcher that can get outs and win games than having a righty for the sake of having a righty.

[moonslav59]

I think I would rather have a pitcher that can get outs and win games than having a righty for the sake of having a righty.

 

Normally, I agree, but when you look at the Yanks and Astros line-ups, having a righty looks essential.

 

Yankees

.800 vs LHPs

.773 vs RHPs

 

(In 2017, their splits were flipped .757 to .795)

 

Astros:

.803 vs LHPs

.733 vs RHPs

 

(In 2017, their splits were flipped as well .814 to .824)

 

Granted, I'd rather get a great LH'd starter than a mediocre RH'd starter, but I wouldn't call Happ "great."

[cp176]

I was talking to those who claimed the farm would be quickly rebuilt as far back as 2016. Those predictions have fallen far short.

 

On your point, I'm not sure why it will be any easier to do it starting last month. We will have the lowest pick we've ever had, and it might be 10 picks lower, if we ended up over the $40M line this year. Our international pool will be very low as well.

 

I haven't given up hope, but that's all it is right now-- HOPE!

 

Never ever give up hope my friend.

[notin]

Never ever give up hope my friend.

 

Right. Just draft hope 10 picks later...

[jacksonianmarch]

Getting a RHer to complement Porcello is absolutely, 100% imperative to beating the Yankees in 2019. That is especially true if we pick up Machado. Look at the following OPS's against lefties

 

Stanton- 1.036

Voit- 1.195

Judge- .967

Andujar- .822

Torres- .912

Hicks- .801

Sanchez- .872

 

Heck, even Didi had a respectable L on L of .764. And if we get Machado, he OPS'd .921 against lefties. Sanchez didn't hit at all in 2018 and he still crushed lefties. The fact is, we are clearly susceptible vs righties, mostly power righties. This is why we succumbed to Eovaldi so readily last yr whether he was in TB or Boston. If the sox strike out in signing a good veteran and go to Johnson in the 5 slot, we will win the season series, and it likely wont be close

[S5Dewey]

Normally, I agree, but when you look at the Yanks and Astros line-ups, having a righty looks essential.

 

Yankees

.800 vs LHPs

.773 vs RHPs

 

(In 2017, their splits were flipped .757 to .795)

 

Astros:

.803 vs LHPs

.733 vs RHPs

 

(In 2017, their splits were flipped as well .814 to .824)

 

Granted, I'd rather get a great LH'd starter than a mediocre RH'd starter, but I wouldn't call Happ "great."

 

Serious question, and one I've often pondered...

 

Yankees vs. LH pitchers - .800

Yankees vs. RH pitchers - .773

 

That's an increase in BA of .027 or 27 hits over 1000 AB's. vs LH pitchers. If one considers 500 AB's to be a normal season that's only 13.5 hits or one hit every 12.5 games (based on a 162 game season). Is that really worth making decisions over?

 

Or am I missing something?

[notin]

Serious question, and one I've often pondered...

 

Yankees vs. LH pitchers - .800

Yankees vs. RH pitchers - .773

 

That's an increase in BA of .027 or 27 hits over 1000 AB's. vs LH pitchers. If one considers 500 AB's to be a normal season that's only 13.5 hits or one hit every 12.5 games (based on a 162 game season). Is that really worth making decisions over?

 

Or am I missing something?

 

While I get what you’re saying, you’re using OPS. This means your .027 difference is actually 13.5 singles over 1000 at bats, as they get counted in both OBP and SLG. My point here is that in trying to prove that difference is miniscule, and it is, it’s even more miniscule than you were saying...

[moonslav59]

Right. Just draft hope 10 picks later...

 

10 picks later than last pick.

[moonslav59]

Serious question, and one I've often pondered...

 

Yankees vs. LH pitchers - .800

Yankees vs. RH pitchers - .773

 

That's an increase in BA of .027 or 27 hits over 1000 AB's. vs LH pitchers. If one considers 500 AB's to be a normal season that's only 13.5 hits or one hit every 12.5 games (based on a 162 game season). Is that really worth making decisions over?

 

Or am I missing something?

 

The Yanks' splits moved .065 from 2017.

 

The Astros moved .080.

 

Am I missing something?

[notin]

10 picks later than last pick.

 

 

How can we pick 10 picks after the last pick? That would require there be at least 9 other picks after the last pick, which means it isn’t the last pick...

[moonslav59]

How can we pick 10 picks after the last pick? That would require there be at least 9 other picks after the last pick, which means it isn’t the last pick...

 

the last pick of round 1 is 30th. We will pick 40th due to the penalty for going over by $40M.

 

That's 10 below the last pick of the round.

[sk7326]

Right. Just draft hope 10 picks later...

 

Yep - 40th instead of 30th. Really such a tiny penalty is the real reason why the Sox staying above the tax with a really good team is not really an issue (aside from money).

[moonslav59]

Yep - 40th instead of 30th. Really such a tiny penalty is the real reason why the Sox staying above the tax with a really good team is not really an issue (aside from money).

 

It's not a big deal, but expecting us to rebuild the farm with such low picks and low international draft pools is not going to be easy, and eventually we will need some infusion of top youth talent and the low cost they bring to the budget.

 

If we haven't been able to rebuild while having the 12th, 24th and 26th picks in the last 3 drafts, why expect better from #40?

[sk7326]

It's not a big deal, but expecting us to rebuild the farm with such low picks and low international draft pools is not going to be easy, and eventually we will need some infusion of top youth talent and the low cost they bring to the budget.

 

If we haven't been able to rebuild while having the 12th, 24th and 26th picks in the last 3 drafts, why expect better from #40?

 

Good question - can he make sure that 2 of them don't get injured?

[S5Dewey]

The Yanks' splits moved .065 from 2017.

 

The Astros moved .080.

 

Am I missing something?

 

I'm not trying to be a dick about this, but what does your post have to do with what I'm saying? After Notin's (correct) post that the original data was OPS and I used BA I looked back at the Yankees splits. In 2018 the Yankees BA was .002 better against RH pitchers than against LH pitchers. (.250 v .248) That's 11 hits spread over the 162 game season or one hit every two weeks based on their 5500 PA's.

 

Now we're making plans for 2019. Again, is that .002 BA or that .027 OPS worthy of having decisions made because of it? Or are we getting so wrapped up in the numbers that we don't see the insignificance of some of them?

 

And yes, I recognize that some hitters have more significant splits than others but IMO that shouldn't factor into our building a starting pitching staff for 2019. It would be more appropriate for the BP.

[Bellhorn04]

There's another L-R split that's worth looking at.

 

In games where they faced a lefty starter, the Yanks had an .832 OPS.

In games where they faced a righty starter, the Yanks had a .761 OPS.

 

What this shows is that they did do much better against lefty starters than righty starters. The difference gets shaved when you include relievers, probably because so many relievers are righties.

[oldtimer]

It's not a big deal, but expecting us to rebuild the farm with such low picks and low international draft pools is not going to be easy, and eventually we will need some infusion of top youth talent and the low cost they bring to the budget.

 

If we haven't been able to rebuild while having the 12th, 24th and 26th picks in the last 3 drafts, why expect better from #40?

 

We have been a top team now for 3 years running and our draft picks have reflected that. Baseballs attempts to create parity penalize the better teams. We have a good core of players and we can outspend some teams to keep it going for a while, but eventually it does catch up. We hope that the FO does not sign more silly contracts like Panda and possibly Pedroia that further limit us. One hope is that our front office is smarter than some and can obtain improvement in trades by being smart. Even that is in question as the marketplace for players is pretty big and we certainly don't rule there.

[notin]

It's not a big deal, but expecting us to rebuild the farm with such low picks and low international draft pools is not going to be easy, and eventually we will need some infusion of top youth talent and the low cost they bring to the budget.

 

If we haven't been able to rebuild while having the 12th, 24th and 26th picks in the last 3 drafts, why expect better from #40?

 

 

The international draft money is a bigger deal than one draft pick one season...

[notin]

We have been a top team now for 3 years running and our draft picks have reflected that. Baseballs attempts to create parity penalize the better teams. We have a good core of players and we can outspend some teams to keep it going for a while, but eventually it does catch up. We hope that the FO does not sign more silly contracts like Panda and possibly Pedroia that further limit us. One hope is that our front office is smarter than some and can obtain improvement in trades by being smart. Even that is in question as the marketplace for players is pretty big and we certainly don't rule there.

 

Panda was a stupid contract, but Pedroia wasn’t. The money wasn’t outrageous. It’s just that the guy got hurt. That’s going to happen...

[moonslav59]

Good question - can he make sure that 2 of them don't get injured?

 

There does seem to be a snake-bitten aspect to our recent picks and international signings. Worst of all was the death of Daniel Flores, the promising young catcher.

[moonslav59]

I'm not trying to be a dick about this, but what does your post have to do with what I'm saying? After Notin's (correct) post that the original data was OPS and I used BA I looked back at the Yankees splits. In 2018 the Yankees BA was .002 better against RH pitchers than against LH pitchers. (.250 v .248) That's 11 hits spread over the 162 game season or one hit every two weeks based on their 5500 PA's.

 

Now we're making plans for 2019. Again, is that .002 BA or that .027 OPS worthy of having decisions made because of it? Or are we getting so wrapped up in the numbers that we don't see the insignificance of some of them?

 

And yes, I recognize that some hitters have more significant splits than others but IMO that shouldn't factor into our building a starting pitching staff for 2019. It would be more appropriate for the BP.

 

My point was that the trend seems to be to reverse the traditional home park advantage teams used to build upon. The Yanks used to load up on left-handed hitters and pitchers, and we used to load up on big right handed hitters and avoid LHPs like the plague. Teams adjusted to that and started flipping the splits. We now have 4 lefty starters, counting Johnson. The Yanks & Astros are built to hit lefties better than righties.

 

I'm not against signing a lefty, if he's better than the righty option, but all things being equal, a righty fits into our rotation better and matches up with our biggest contenders. Seeing how well a pretty much journeyman big righty, Eovaldi, did for us in the playoffs vs righty-stacked line-ups opened my eyes a little bit.

 

I know the split differentials are not vast, but mixing up your starters, be it lefties with righties, knucklers with fastballs or whatever, IMO, is always a good idea, if possible.

[kenmeister]

We have been a top team now for 3 years running and our draft picks have reflected that. Baseballs attempts to create parity penalize the better teams. We have a good core of players and we can outspend some teams to keep it going for a while, but eventually it does catch up. We hope that the FO does not sign more silly contracts like Panda and possibly Pedroia that further limit us. One hope is that our front office is smarter than some and can obtain improvement in trades by being smart. Even that is in question as the marketplace for players is pretty big and we certainly don't rule there.

 

I do think they've learned their lesson with silly contracts - and that's why I think Bogaerts, Betts, and eventually Benitendi will be snatched up by other teams.