And the off season begins (2018-19)

[cp176]

but the Doctor that performed his latest TJ surgery has stated that his arm is perfectly healthy. shouldn't we just believe the Doctor that performed the surgery? surely he wouldn't bend the truth or offer alternative Facts about the results of a procedure that he performed?!?

 

Who would ever believe a quack like that right! And you certainly are right about the fact that we need to be saving our money. I hope to hell that JH can at least make his current payroll obligations. Times are tough and boy are they ever going to get worse. Hey I'm for bringing back both Buch and Hanley but only on the cheap. Maybe we could even get that other fat little bugger who liked to hang out in the crapper - what was his name again. If DD spends any money at all this off season it will only prove once again that he just doesn't get how to build either a team or a farm system.

[cp176]

Eovaldi's regular season fWAR this year was 2.2, BTW. It's not like he was bad during the season and only good in the postseason.

 

Lest we forget - remember last year how there were all of those supposed teams ready to hop right in there and gobble up JD. One thing that I like about DD is that he won't be showing his hand at the table. You just don't know what he is up to. It wouldn't surprise me though if Eovaldi winds up in Boston and of course as a starting pitcher.

[moonslav59]

Hey I'm for bringing back both Buch and Hanley but only on the cheap.

 

Now that we have Pearce, and even if we trade Swihart, I don't see where HRam gets any PAs.

[notin]

Lest we forget - remember last year how there were all of those supposed teams ready to hop right in there and gobble up JD. One thing that I like about DD is that he won't be showing his hand at the table. You just don't know what he is up to. It wouldn't surprise me though if Eovaldi winds up in Boston and of course as a starting pitcher.

 

Actually the problem JD had was a lack of interest, and Boston was the only team that seemed to get any coverage for negotiating with him. That the Yankees and Dodgers basically sat out of the free agent market was probably a big factor.

 

Eovaldi, on the other hand, is reportedly already drawing a lot of interest per MLBTR. He’s probably helped by the Dodgers and Yankees getting back invoved and by being one of the better RHSP options available. Several teams will withdraw at some point for financial reasons or Eovaldi’s health history ( or more likely, a combination of the two). But if enough stay interested, it’s the exact opposite of JDM last year....

[Slasher9]

Who would ever believe a quack like that right! And you certainly are right about the fact that we need to be saving our money. I hope to hell that JH can at least make his current payroll obligations. Times are tough and boy are they ever going to get worse. Hey I'm for bringing back both Buch and Hanley but only on the cheap. Maybe we could even get that other fat little bugger who liked to hang out in the crapper - what was his name again. If DD spends any money at all this off season it will only prove once again that he just doesn't get how to build either a team or a farm system.

 

i think JH blows past the payroll threshhold again this season. but i think he wants to reset the following year. this prevents us from signing LTC like Eovaldi (or Kimbrel). does Evo want to sign a 1 year deal? i'll pay him a large sum to sign a 1 year contract with us. beyond that....it aint gonna happen. unless we plan on not resigning Sale next year and replacing him with Evo? that plan is not for me tho. Evo is a ticking time bomb that has already exploded a couple times.....

[Bellhorn04]

i think JH blows past the payroll threshhold again this season. but i think he wants to reset the following year. this prevents us from signing LTC like Eovaldi (or Kimbrel). does Evo want to sign a 1 year deal? i'll pay him a large sum to sign a 1 year contract with us. beyond that....it aint gonna happen. unless we plan on not resigning Sale next year and replacing him with Evo? that plan is not for me tho. Evo is a ticking time bomb that has already exploded a couple times.....

 

I would view Eovaldi as replacing Porcello after 2019.

[moonslav59]

i think JH blows past the payroll threshhold again this season. but i think he wants to reset the following year. this prevents us from signing LTC like Eovaldi (or Kimbrel). does Evo want to sign a 1 year deal? i'll pay him a large sum to sign a 1 year contract with us. beyond that....it aint gonna happen. unless we plan on not resigning Sale next year and replacing him with Evo? that plan is not for me tho. Evo is a ticking time bomb that has already exploded a couple times.....

 

I think we reset after 2020.

 

The roster is too good to say good bye that soon.

Edited November 19, 2018 by moonslav59

[notin]

I would view Eovaldi as replacing Porcello after 2019.

 

The one asset that everyone likes about Porcello is his durability. In that respect, Eovaldi is no Porcello...

[Bellhorn04]

The one asset that everyone likes about Porcello is his durability. In that respect, Eovaldi is no Porcello...

 

That's true. I was thinking more in terms of payroll.

[notin]

That's true. I was thinking more in terms of payroll.

 

Or the Sox could extend Porcello, and then Porcello replaces Porcello...

[moonslav59]

That's true. I was thinking more in terms of payroll.

 

I'd rather have Porcello. He's younger. He's durable. He might not be that much more expensive than $60M/4.

[moonslav59]

Or the Sox could extend Porcello, and then Porcello replaces Porcello...

 

You beat me to it.

 

Signing Eovaldi might mean saying good bye to Sale.

[Slasher9]

I would view Eovaldi as replacing Porcello after 2019.

 

i would be more inclined to see who are FA pitchers next offseason to replace Porcello (as opposed to signing Evo to a 4 year deal). Porcello may even be the best bet to sign. we get 1 more year to evaluate him.

[Slasher9]

I think we reset after 2020.

 

The roster is too good to say good bye that soon.

 

fine. i still dont want to sign Evo to 4 years and lose Sale or possibly Porc or whomever is a FA SP in a year or two.....

[moonslav59]

fine. i still dont want to sign Evo to 4 years and lose Sale or possibly Porc or whomever is a FA SP in a year or two.....

 

I'm hoping we don't sign anyone to more than 2 years, unless it's Betts, Bogey or JBJ (or maybe Sale).

[TylerD]

The one asset that everyone likes about Porcello is his durability. In that respect, Eovaldi is no Porcello...

 

Agreed with this. However if Eovaldi keeps pitching the way he did in the playoffs I would be fine with either or. The man didn’t cave once in high pressure games.

[moonslav59]

Agreed with this. However if Eovaldi keeps pitching the way he did in the playoffs I would be fine with either or. The man didn’t cave once in high pressure games.

 

That's the "big if" though, isn't it?

 

He's never done it before.

 

He wasn't even all that great this year... before the playoffs.

 

With Betts, Bogey, JD, JBJ, Porcello and Sale all becoming free agents next winter or the one after, we have to be extremely careful with any deals longer than 2 years.

[kenmeister]

He wasn't even all that great this year... before the playoffs.

 

He was hot or cold as I remember. Let's go to the game log.

 

July 29th he went 7 shutout innings against Minnesota

August 4th he went 8 shutout innings against the Yankees

August 10th he only lasted into the 3rd inning, giving up 4 earned runs.

August 15th he went 5 innings allowed 1 earned run.

August 21st he went 5 1/3 innings allowed 4 runs.

August 26th was a bad start going 4 innings and allowing 5 runs.

August 31st was the worst, just 2 innings allowing 3 runs.

September 3rd pitched into the 4th but didn't allow any runs. (Why was he pulled?)

September 11th didn't make it out of the 4th again, allowed 2 runs.

September 18th he's back. He pitched 6 shutout innings.

September 24th 5 innings allowing only one run.

September 29th just 2 innings allowing no earned runs.

 

It looks to me like Cora's hook was quite often too quick. I think this guy could be great for quite some time to come.

[sk7326]

Do you need me to go through sa list of pitchers with multiple TJ surgeries? Or shall we just call it no risk since obviously finding an exact match with ages is going to be difficult.

 

But then as there is so little risk with TJ surgeries, that means Eovaldi will be very tough to sign as he will get lots of attention and big offers.

 

Since the Sox also lost their two most important relief pitchers, should Eovaldi be the priority?

 

I agree there is a risk - but at the same time Eovaldi has put together a unique track record considering. The multiple TJS candidates did not recover at all from the 2nd surgery.

 

I think it will be tricky to resign Eovaldi, though I'd go 3 years myself. He's arguably the 2nd or 3rd best starter on the market.

 

The Red Sox will have to decide how much of a priority is re-signing Kelly. Kimbrel probably is not worth the years/8 figure salary someone might lavish upon him.

[moonslav59]

He was hot or cold as I remember. Let's go to the game log.

 

July 29th he went 7 shutout innings against Minnesota

August 4th he went 8 shutout innings against the Yankees

August 10th he only lasted into the 3rd inning, giving up 4 earned runs.

August 15th he went 5 innings allowed 1 earned run.

August 21st he went 5 1/3 innings allowed 4 runs.

August 26th was a bad start going 4 innings and allowing 5 runs.

August 31st was the worst, just 2 innings allowing 3 runs.

September 3rd pitched into the 4th but didn't allow any runs. (Why was he pulled?)

September 11th didn't make it out of the 4th again, allowed 2 runs.

September 18th he's back. He pitched 6 shutout innings.

September 24th 5 innings allowing only one run.

September 29th just 2 innings allowing no earned runs.

 

It looks to me like Cora's hook was quite often too quick. I think this guy could be great for quite some time to come.

 

I'm curious why you did not include his 10 games with the Rays.

 

5 good to very good starts

4 bad starts

1 so-so starts

[notin]

I think assuming he will be “great” might be a reach. His ERA+ over the last 3 years is 99, which makes him average for that timeframe.

 

The Mariners recently released Erasmo Ramirez, whose ERA+ is 91 for those same season. Yet Ramirez was released earlier this off-season and no one is anticipating he will get $60mill over the next 4 years. Tanner Roark has an ERA+ up around 110 in those same seasons and MLBTR lists him as a non-tender candidate...

Edited November 19, 2018 by notin

[sk7326]

I think assuming he will be “great” might be a reach. His ERA+ over the last 3 years is 99, which makes him average for that timeframe.

 

The Mariners recently released Erasmo Ramirez, whose ERA+ is 91 for those same season. Yet Ramirez was released earlier this off-season and no one is anticipating he will get $60mill over the next 4 years. Tanner Roark has an ERA+ up around -10 in those same seasons and MLBTR lists him as a non-tender candidate...

 

I don't think he is being expected to be priced as a great pitcher - just as a solid midrotation one.

 

Seriously - if you had never watched baseball before and saw Eovaldi pitch last fall vs Kershaw and tried to guess who the better pitcher was ... it wasn't the latter.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm curious why you did not include his 10 games with the Rays.

 

5 good to very good starts

4 bad starts

1 so-so starts

 

He also had a 2.2 fWAR in 111 innings. That's pretty good.

[notin]

He also had a 2.2 fWAR in 111 innings. That's pretty good.

 

Fellow free agent Trevor Cahill has 1.9 fWAR in 105 IP and no one is hinting at a 4 year $60mill deal for him...

[notin]

I don't think he is being expected to be priced as a great pitcher - just as a solid midrotation one.

 

Seriously - if you had never watched baseball before Andrew saw Eovaldi pitch last fall vs Kershaw and tried to guess who the better pitcher was ... it wasn't the latter.

 

So... one game sample size?

 

Come on. Kershaw also threw 161 IP last year with better results. Eovaldi has topped 161 IP one time in 8 years...

[sk7326]

So... one game sample size?

 

Come on. Kershaw also threw 161 IP last year with better results. Eovaldi has topped 161 IP one time in 8 years...

 

The past performance on Eovaldi is a fair point ... of course he has better pitches now than earlier in his career.

[Spudboy]

Personally I think you guys are wrong and that we do sign Eovaldi.

 

It would be best.

[kenmeister]

I'm curious why you did not include his 10 games with the Rays.

 

5 good to very good starts

4 bad starts

1 so-so starts

 

Just in case there's a "Sandy Leon" effect.

[sk7326]

I would view Eovaldi as replacing Porcello after 2019.

 

Eovaldi's market is very hard to gauge - there are reasons it could be hot and reasons it might be able to get him for short money.

 

That said I would go 3 years without much regret.

[notin]

The past performance on Eovaldi is a fair point ... of course he has better pitches now than earlier in his career.

 

He’s always had that blazing fastball.

 

But even with better pitches, how good do people think he is? If he wasn’t on the Sox last year, would fans really want to be all in on a SP coming off a season of 111 IP with an ERA+ of 112 for 4 years $60mill? If so, what’s the going rate for Trevor Cahill, whose coming off a season of 110 IP with an ERA+ of 109? Those results are practically identical.