And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

My goodness it seems like just yesterday that there were people on here saying that old Clay would be worth 13 million for a half year's work. I think that it was even after the "cliff concept" propelled itself to the forefront of discussion. Hey - now that I think about it, it was just yesterday. lol

 

Was it yesterday or, you know, 3 years ago when the option was an issue?

[cp176]

Was it yesterday or, you know, 3 years ago when the option was an issue?

 

time flies!!!

[jacksonianmarch]

Clay also ended the year on the DL with another arm injury. He’s made of glass

[Emp9]

I’d pick up Buchholz on a minor league deal. He’s oft-injured but atleast he’s the devil you know.

[Dojji]

I’d pick up Buchholz on a minor league deal. He’s oft-injured but atleast he’s the devil you know.

 

No. durability is probably the second most important attribute for especially a st arting pitcher, second only to actual pitching ability.

 

Remember, the question you have to ask about any player who's guaranteed to miss time, is who plays that time. 120 innings of ace type work and 80-90 innings of replacement level work rounds down to mediocre. That's besides the fact that you have to pay for that replacement either with a free agent contract or with starting a prospect's clock earlier than you might have wanted to and/or using up option years.

 

And if you have a replacement that can take that half a season or so of workload at at above replacement level, why aren't you just using them instead?

[S5Dewey]

Also unfortunately, 11 million is too much pie in our lux tax situation. Especially if we hope to sign Eovaldi.

 

Clay got $1.5M to pitch for the D'Bax last year and put up a 2.01 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP. The downside is that he only had 16 starts. Do you think he wouldn't jump at $1M guaranteed and a "bonus" for each ML start??

 

If we got a dozen starts and 8 wins out of him he'd get $9M (or $1.125M) per win. That's better than David Price ($1.875M/Win) and slightly better than Porcillo ($1.236M/Win) with essentially no danger of tying up a huge amount of money in him.

 

If we're going to risk going over the LT limit I'd rather to it for pitching than a position player and while Clay is a bit of a gamble it's one worth taking.

[S5Dewey]

Clay also ended the year on the DL with another arm injury. He’s made of glass

 

If it doesn't work out all the Sox have tied up in him is ~2x the ML Minimum.

[Bellhorn04]

Clay got $1.5M to pitch for the D'Bax last year and put up a 2.01 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP. The downside is that he only had 16 starts. Do you think he wouldn't jump at $1M guaranteed and a "bonus" for each ML start??

 

If we got a dozen starts and 8 wins out of him he'd get $9M (or $1.125M) per win. That's better than David Price ($1.875M/Win) and slightly better than Porcillo ($1.236M/Win) with essentially no danger of tying up a huge amount of money in him.

 

If we're going to risk going over the LT limit I'd rather to it for pitching than a position player and while Clay is a bit of a gamble it's one worth taking.

 

The thing is, if we sign Eovaldi and at least one high-end reliever, $9 M for Clay would put us 'over everything' like a home run onto Lansdowne Street.

[S5Dewey]

The thing is, if we sign Eovaldi and at least one high-end reliever, $9 M for Clay would put us 'over everything' like a home run onto Lansdowne Street.

 

I know.. I know.. I just can't get past that old axiom of "You can't have too much pitching".

[notin]

No. durability is probably the second most important attribute for especially a st arting pitcher, second only to actual pitching ability.

 

Remember, the question you have to ask about any player who's guaranteed to miss time, is who plays that time. 120 innings of ace type work and 80-90 innings of replacement level work rounds down to mediocre. That's besides the fact that you have to pay for that replacement either with a free agent contract or with starting a prospect's clock earlier than you might have wanted to and/or using up option years.

 

And if you have a replacement that can take that half a season or so of workload at at above replacement level, why aren't you just using them instead?

 

If durability is so important to the point where a minor league deal is a bad idea, please explain to me again why fans are obsessed with guaranteeing $60mill for a pitcher who has had TJ surgery twice and threw only 111 IP last year and only 235 IP in the last 3 years?

 

I’m not saying the Sox shouldn’t sign Eovaldi. I’m saying if you think durability is the real reason not to give Buchholz a minor league deal, then you’re a hypocrite if you also advocate signing Eovaldi...

[moonslav59]

His history with injuries is enough that GMs will avoid guaranteed money. And last year clinched that

 

There is a long history of GMs guaranteeing money to oft-injured players coming off a good looking season or half season, including us taking Buch's option.

[notin]

There is a long history of GMs guaranteeing money to oft-injured players coming off a good looking season or half season, including us taking Buch's option.

 

So until he gets an actual offer, then he should be on the radar? And he doesn’t have one yet. Should the Red Sox also avoid Eovaldi because some team might offer him 5 years? Maybe Pearce should have been off the radar because Jacko speculated he’d get multi year offers and start 150 games. (For the record, he never got those offers.)

 

The Buchholz-Paranoia s crazy with some people. Every year the reasons get less and less rational as to why a minor league deal is a bad idea. Make him an offer and if he gets a better one, he goes elsewhere. Really not a big deal...

[moonslav59]

What are you people who don't want him thinking?? Clay went 7-2 with an ERA of 2 and a WHIP of 1.037 in almost 100 innings. Do you think Johnson or Velazquez are going to do that for you??

 

Umm, Velazquez did go 7-2 and stayed healthy all year (pretty much).

 

No doubt, Clay has upside, when healthy, but I'm done with him. Too many let downs.

 

BTW, the team went____ in their 2018 starts....

 

9-4 Johnson

 

5-3 Velazquez

 

8-8 Buchholz

 

Also, maybe Johnson and Velazquez will never have a 1.04 WHIP or an ERA near 2, but I doubt they have these numbers either....

 

2017: 0-1 12.27/2.591 in 7.1 IP

2016: 8-10 4.78/1.328 in 139 IP

2014: 8-11 5.34/1.386 in 170 IP

2012: 11-8 4.56/1.326 in 189 IP

 

Buch is a crap shoot. If he'll take a minor league deal, there's no harm, but I'd still rather sign someone more dependable.

 

 

[moonslav59]

So until he gets an actual offer, then he should be on the radar? And he doesn’t have one yet. Should the Red Sox also avoid Eovaldi because some team might offer him 5 years? Maybe Pearce should have been off the radar because Jacko speculated he’d get multi year offers and start 150 games. (For the record, he never got those offers.)

 

The Buchholz-Paranoia s crazy with some people. Every year the reasons get less and less rational as to why a minor league deal is a bad idea. Make him an offer and if he gets a better one, he goes elsewhere. Really not a big deal...

 

I want dependable pitchers. That's not a radical or absurd idea.

 

I thin he gets a ML deal from someone, and no that doesn't mean I don't offer him a minor league deal in the mean time, but my philosophy is to try and get minor league depth you can count on being there, when needed.

 

If we sign Buch to a minor league deal, I'd be fine with him in AAA. He would offer a hope and a prayer, in case we need something from the farm. I'd rather have the Fister type guys.

[Bellhorn04]

If durability is so important to the point where a minor league deal is a bad idea, please explain to me again why fans are obsessed with guaranteeing $60mill for a pitcher who has had TJ surgery twice and threw only 111 IP last year and only 235 IP in the last 3 years?

 

I’m not saying the Sox shouldn’t sign Eovaldi. I’m saying if you think durability is the real reason not to give Buchholz a minor league deal, then you’re a hypocrite if you also advocate signing Eovaldi...

 

The funny thing is, Clay has never even had one TJ surgery. But he really is a man of crystal.

 

As for Eovaldi, some doctor just said his arm is as good as new. That's good enough for me.

[moonslav59]

I know.. I know.. I just can't get past that old axiom of "You can't have too much pitching".

 

You can have too many injured pitchers.

[sk7326]

I’d pick up Buchholz on a minor league deal. He’s oft-injured but atleast he’s the devil you know.

 

I would too - yes, the durability is a problem ... but a guy who can start and maybe give some multi-inning relief is worth a look

[S5Dewey]

You can have too many injured pitchers.

 

I say sign both Wright and Buch to deals. One for one half of the year and the other for the other half. Problems solved!

 

[notin]

You can have too many injured pitchers.

 

So. ... no Eovaldi either? His injury history is comparable and the financial risk will be far worse...

[moonslav59]

So. ... no Eovaldi either? His injury history is comparable and the financial risk will be far worse...

 

If you really equate the two histories, then fine.

 

I don't.

[notin]

If you really equate the two histories, then fine.

 

I don't.

 

It’s something that should be considered. Eovaldi’s history by age 28 is far worse than Buchholz.

 

I lie Eovaldi and hope he comes back to the Sox, but there is some seriously bad potential for a 4 year $60mill contract here. The only bright spot is the Sox should be positioned to withstand it ...

[cp176]

So. ... no Eovaldi either? His injury history is comparable and the financial risk will be far worse...

 

I know that you are going to provide information to show that I am wrong - that actually is a compliment - but I am going with the latest medical information that I read about Eovaldi. I don't think that there is much of a comparison between Buch and Eovaldi. I have no idea anymore than anyone else does about how much he will get paid this year but I do not see the risk that you do. That arm has been rebuilt.

[moonslav59]

It’s something that should be considered. Eovaldi’s history by age 28 is far worse than Buchholz.

 

I lie Eovaldi and hope he comes back to the Sox, but there is some seriously bad potential for a 4 year $60mill contract here. The only bright spot is the Sox should be positioned to withstand it ...

 

I hope we re-sign Eovaldi, but I'm on record as saying I don't go 4 years. Even 3 years bumps into my projected 2021 re-set season.

 

I'm worried about his age and health, but Buch is a train wreck. I don't see a comp.

[notin]

I know that you are going to provide information to show that I am wrong - that actually is a compliment - but I am going with the latest medical information that I read about Eovaldi. I don't think that there is much of a comparison between Buch and Eovaldi. I have no idea anymore than anyone else does about how much he will get paid this year but I do not see the risk that you do. That arm has been rebuilt.

 

I have no idea what that means except, with the sole exception of Steve Austin, rebuilding body parts is never as good as the originals.

 

The Sox Dox will most definitely do some sort of medical checkup and analysis on Eovaldi beyond just taking a doctor’s word for it, and if they like what they find, they will sign him. They might balk at the arm altogether and bring back Kimbrel instead.

 

I expect Buchholz to be a higher risk today, which is why I wouldn’t recommend anything beyond a minor league deal. Now bear in mind Buchholz signed his big conteact with Boston at an age younger than Eovaldi is now and that deal was worth far less money and yet there were STILL debates about picking up the option. Merely saying that it isn’t the same with Eovaldi is burying your head in the sand. (A luxury you and I have.)

 

But I think a lot of fans are prioritizing bringing the band back together over keeping EVERYTHING in mind. Again, fans can do that. It’s harmless. Dombrowski can’t. When he does it, it isn’t. And if Eovaldi’s arm is as rebuilt as some internet quote says it is, there might be problems depending on the contract. (Insurance can protect John Henry, but will not protect the Sox from luxury tax.)

 

So we shall see how the medical evaluation goes. If the Sox don’t like what they find and move on, it isn’t Dombrowski’s fault...

Edited November 17, 2018 by notin

[cp176]

I have no idea what that means except, with the sole exception of Steve Austin, rebuilding body parts is never as Goya’s the originals.

 

The Sox Dox will most definitely do some sort of medical checkup and analysis on Eovaldi beyond just taking a doctor’s word for it, and if they like what they find, they will sign him. They might balk at the arm altogether and bring back Kimbrel instead,l.

 

But I think a lot of fans are prioritizing bringing the band back together over keeping EVERYTHING in mind . Fans can do that. It’s harmless. Dombrowski can’t. When he does it , it isn’t. And if Eovaldi’s arm is as rebuilt as some internet quote says it is, there might be problems depending on the contract . (Insurance can protect John Henry, but will not protect the Sox from luxury tax.)

 

So we shall see how the medical evaluation goes. If the Sox don’t like what they find and move on, it isn’t Dombrowski’s fault...

 

Dr. Christopher Ahmad - the doc that performed the surgery on Eovaldi and just recently re-evaluted his arm seemed to give him a pretty good health report. What you are suggesting the Sox do has already been done. Maybe he is just some internet doc who knows nothing but I think that that is probably unlikely.

 

This part - Steve Austin and rebuilt body parts - ouch once again. You just might make me curse at you. Are you unable to just state an opinion without being a jackass?

[moonslav59]

My guess is the Sox have a pretty good idea what Eovaldi's arm looks like right now. They could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time, but if we are going hard for him, like it appears we are, I'm pretty certain they have confidence his arm is fine.

 

Certainly, I worry more about Eovaldi's arm (with 2 TJ surgeries) than say, Porcello's, but I'm trusting DD and his crew on what they see.

 

If we don't get Eovaldi, we'll probably get someone else with a good outlook.

[Kimmi]

Even then we're subjected to a barrage of ads.

 

The Starting Lineup is brought to you by....

The first pitch of the game is brought to you by....

The first strikeout of the game is brought to you by...

 

It goes on endlessly.

 

Someone - Dustcover I think - made the observation that a football game is a series of commercials strung together by a football game. Baseball is rapidly becoming the same way.

 

I don't disagree.

 

If you ask me, that's the biggest culprit of what's wrong with today's game. Not the shift, not the pitcher taking too long between pitches, etc., but all those freaking ads.

[notin]

Dr. Christopher Ahmad - the doc that performed the surgery on Eovaldi and just recently re-evaluted his arm seemed to give him a pretty good health report. What you are suggesting the Sox do has already been done. Maybe he is just some internet doc who knows nothing but I think that that is probably unlikely.

 

This part - Steve Austin and rebuilt body parts - ouch once again. You just might make me curse at you. Are you unable to just state an opinion without being a jackass?

 

And I’m sure he’s a great doctor. Although did you expect him to say “Whoa. Yeah I f***ed that one up.” The really weird part is you’re advocating the Sox NOT do a physical. I mean , if Eovaldi is he healthy, what is the risk?

 

By the way, why is this doctor talking to the media about Eovaldi? Is he exempt from HIPPA laws?

[Kimmi]

I’d pick up Buchholz on a minor league deal. He’s oft-injured but atleast he’s the devil you know.

 

100% in, as I was last year.

[moonslav59]

And I’m sure he’s a great doctor. Although did you expect him to say “Whoa. Yeah I f***ed that one up.” The really weird part is you’re advocating the Sox NOT do a physical. I mean , if Eovaldi is he healthy, what is the risk?

 

By the way, why is this doctor talking to the media about Eovaldi? Is he exempt from HIPPA laws?

 

All it takes is for the patient to wave confidentiality, and that is what appears to have happened, since it is in Eovaldi's interest that GMs know more about his arm (since the news is good).