And the off season begins (2018-19)

[moonslav59]

Right. The question is what end of the pool will they be fishing in. Dallas Kuechel and Patrick Corbin are the best starters otherwise. The Red Sox rotation is already more lefthanded than they'd prefer.

 

I guess if Eovaldi goes, would you be okay with Morton or Ryu for 2-3 years.

 

I think we go after Eovaldi first and Morton may be our fall back. I wouldn't sign Ryu to more than 2 years, and only then, if we can't sign Eovaldi or Morton.

 

I could also see us not signing a starter and hoping we can score another Eovaldi-type next summer, then use all (most) our resources on the pen.

[notin]

Right. The question is what end of the pool will they be fishing in. Dallas Kuechel and Patrick Corbin are the best starters otherwise. The Red Sox rotation is already more lefthanded than they'd prefer.

 

I guess if Eovaldi goes, would you be okay with Morton or Ryu for 2-3 years.

 

Ryu accepted his Qualifying Offer and isn’t available.

 

If the Sox drop down a tier (presumably after spending on a closer), do they look at guys like Anibal Sanchez or Lance Lynn?

[kenmeister]

Ryu accepted his Qualifying Offer and isn’t available.

 

If the Sox drop down a tier (presumably after spending on a closer), do they look at guys like Anibal Sanchez or Lance Lynn?

 

Anibal Sanchez; I forgot about him. Let's do the all-ex-Sox signings: Sanchez, Lowrie, Miller, Iglesias.

[sk7326]

I think we go after Eovaldi first and Morton may be our fall back. I wouldn't sign Ryu to more than 2 years, and only then, if we can't sign Eovaldi or Morton.

 

I could also see us not signing a starter and hoping we can score another Eovaldi-type next summer, then use all (most) our resources on the pen.

 

In the short term the Red Sox biggest asset is money - they ability to dole it out and the ability to absorb it via trade.

[Jasonbay44]

I have a gut feeling Morton is going to be a free agent bust. I don’t want him

[moonslav59]

I have a gut feeling Morton is going to be a free agent bust. I don’t want him

 

I feel Keuchel will, so I'm glad we aren't in on a lefty.

[dgalehouse]

I think signing Eovaldi would be number one on the " to do list " . Then ( assuming Kimbrel leaves ) would come Kelly. Then Pearce. Then we would still need a closer type. Britton and Familia would top that list , along with possibly Miller. If we can get all that done , we should be in good shape going into spring training.

[Bellhorn04]

Anibal Sanchez; I forgot about him. Let's do the all-ex-Sox signings: Sanchez, Lowrie, Miller, Iglesias.

 

How could you leave out Buchholz?

[moonslav59]

How could you leave out Buchholz?

 

Cause nobody should want that train wreck back.

[sk7326]

I feel Keuchel will, so I'm glad we aren't in on a lefty.

 

Keuchel's floor is Rick Porcello - meh numbers with outstanding bulk and durability.

[moonslav59]

Keuchel's floor is Rick Porcello - meh numbers with outstanding bulk and durability.

 

I live just outside of Houston. Many here have seen a significant drop off.

 

His K rate is down from 8.4 to 6.7 over 3 years.

 

His WHIP has been over 1.285 in 2 of the last 3 years.

 

Outstanding bulk?

 

He's been under 170 IP in 2 of the last 3 years. That's not anything like Porcello.

 

2016-2018

Porcello has 100 more IP

ERA- 89 to 92

WHIP 1.19 to 1.25

[kenmeister]

Cause nobody should want that train wreck back.

 

Yeah I couldn’t even jokingly put him in the list. The others you could make a case for; particularly Lowrie to play 2B and Miller as a reliever.

[sk7326]

I live just outside of Houston. Many here have seen a significant drop off.

 

His K rate is down from 8.4 to 6.7 over 3 years.

 

His WHIP has been over 1.285 in 2 of the last 3 years.

 

Outstanding bulk?

 

He's been under 170 IP in 2 of the last 3 years. That's not anything like Porcello.

 

2016-2018

Porcello has 100 more IP

ERA- 89 to 92

WHIP 1.19 to 1.25

 

And 200 IP seasons in the other season and the one before that. Now would you want to pay a ton for a (mostly) durable midrotation guy? I don't know. It's a moot point anyway.

[moonslav59]

And 200 IP seasons in the other season and the one before that. Now would you want to pay a ton for a (mostly) durable midrotation guy? I don't know. It's a moot point anyway.

 

Porcello is a horse. 10 years with never being under 27 starts or 162 IP. 8 straight seasons over 175 IP amd 28+ GS'd.

 

He's started 31+ times in 7 of the last 8 seasons.

 

Even if you throw out Keuchel's first season, he has been under 175 IP in 3 of the last 6 seasons.

 

I'm not saying Keuchel is a slacker or injury prone, but I wouldn't call him a workhorse.

[notin]

Cause nobody should want that train wreck back.

 

Buchholz would be an excellent minor league depth signing, like he was last year for Arizona. He just shouldn’t be counted on for a full season. But for short stretches, he’s a good solution, better than Johnson or Velasquez...

[moonslav59]

Buchholz would be an excellent minor league depth signing, like he was last year for Arizona. He just shouldn’t be counted on for a full season. But for short stretches, he’s a good solution, better than Johnson or Velasquez...

 

He'll get a ML deal somewhere.

 

Not here.

[notin]

He'll get a ML deal somewhere.

 

Not here.

 

He didn’t get an Major League deal last year. He’s older now with one more injury in his history.

 

Sign him DD!! Just to a minor league deal!!

[moonslav59]

He didn’t get an Major League deal last year. He’s older now with one more injury in his history.

 

Sign him DD!! Just to a minor league deal!!

 

Last winter, Buch was coming off worse numbers over 2 years. He pitched well in 16 starts last year- enough for some desperate GM to throw him a bone (ML deal).

[notin]

Last winter, Buch was coming off worse numbers over 2 years. He pitched well in 16 starts last year- enough for some desperate GM to throw him a bone (ML deal).

 

His history with injuries is enough that GMs will avoid guaranteed money. And last year clinched that

[notin]

Ooh, I disagree. I'd much rather see either of those two, or Wright, out there than Buchholz.

 

If you prefer Brian Johnson over Buchholz, then you are prioritizing pace of play over winning...

[S5Dewey]

What are you people who don't want him thinking?? Clay went 7-2 with an ERA of 2 and a WHIP of 1.037 in almost 100 innings. Do you think Johnson or Velazquez are going to do that for you??

 

This is a guy who has ace stuff but can't stay on the field. A prime candidate for someone with a huge upside and little risk if he can be signed for the right price. Last year's $13.2M was an overpay for him but DD should be more than just kicking the tires.

[notin]

For the record, Buchholz did not make $13.5mill last year. He did make that much in 2017 in Philadelphia as part of the final option year of his contract originally signed in Boston. But last year he joined Arizona on a minor league deal. And as he was injured, might be willing (or have no choice but) to settle for another...

[cp176]

Anything I guess is worth a shot at the right price I guess, even old Bucheroo. I don't think that he would be happy with the right price though. When he is healthy, he might be worth it. I sure wouldn't spend much money to sign him but by the same token I would have gotten rid of Wright a long time ago as well. I would have traded him during one of the those rare recent windows that he was actually able to pitch. Signing Eovaldi I'm thinking should take precedence over signing Buchholtz and the rest of the dumpster dives. Remember - We need to pinch those pennies for JH!

[kenmeister]

What are you people who don't want him thinking?? Clay went 7-2 with an ERA of 2 and a WHIP of 1.037 in almost 100 innings. Do you think Johnson or Velazquez are going to do that for you??

 

This is a guy who has ace stuff but can't stay on the field. A prime candidate for someone with a huge upside and little risk if he can be signed for the right price. Last year's $13.2M was an overpay for him but DD should be more than just kicking the tires.

 

My thoughts:

1) I don't think his numbers are as good if he pitches in the AL.

2) He'll conveniently get injured either right before, or during, a Yankees start.

3) I'd like to see Johnson/Velazquez/Wright develop further.

4) And yes, his contract size makes a difference. Major league minimum is tempting, $13 million is not.

5) Eovaldi and Kelly are the priorities.

[S5Dewey]

For the record, Buchholz did not make $13.5mill last year. He did make that much in 2017 in Philadelphia as part of the final option year of his contract originally signed in Boston. But last year he joined Arizona on a minor league deal. And as he was injured, might be willing (or have no choice but) to settle for another...

 

Right you are. My bad. B_R has no salary listed for 2018.

[S5Dewey]

I've always been excited about the prospect of getting Buch back at the right price. When he's healthy the guy can flat-out pitch.

 

He's definitely a two-sided coin. When negotiations start he can point to his ERA & WHIP and make a case for his being highly paid. OTOH GM's can point to the fact that he can't stay on the field. IMO the time might be right now for DD to approach him about "coming home" and offer him a MiL contract with provisions for him to make a lot more on a per-start basis when he comes to Boston. Something like $1M guaranteed in the minors with an additional $500,000 for each ML start. If he can stay healthy and make 20 ML starts he gets $11M - and would probably be worth it.

 

Unfortunately for the Sox he probably won't jump at that because he's going to want guaranteed money but if he hasn't signed someplace by Xmas a contract like that may start looking better to him.

[notin]

My thoughts:

1) I don't think his numbers are as good if he pitches in the AL.

2) He'll conveniently get injured either right before, or during, a Yankees start.

3) I'd like to see Johnson/Velazquez/Wright develop further.

4) And yes, his contract size makes a difference. Major league minimum is tempting, $13 million is not.

5) Eovaldi and Kelly are the priorities.

 

1) His numbers probably won’t be as good in the AL, they were in Chris Sale territory. But that is not the same as saying they will be bad.

2) Speculation. Plus the goal is for depth.

3) The pitchers you name aren’t 20-somethings on the rise . Might as well give Buchhioz the opportunity to develop. Wright was born the same month as Buchholz. (Buchholz is 16 days older than Wright.) But being real about it, there will be plenty of opportunities for everyone. Last year, the Sox has 7 pitchers who made double digit starts and 9 pitchers who started 4 or more games. And that was an uncharacteristically healthy year.

4) Suggesting a minor league deal. Keep up. No one is suggesting signing him for $13mill.

5)Point? Actually it is entirely possible that Kelly might be off the table with the signing of Steve Pearce. Unless Henry unleashes the payroll beyond all luxury tax tiers...

Edited November 17, 2018 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

I've always been excited about the prospect of getting Buch back at the right price. When he's healthy the guy can flat-out pitch.

 

He's definitely a two-sided coin. When negotiations start he can point to his ERA & WHIP and make a case for his being highly paid. OTOH GM's can point to the fact that he can't stay on the field. IMO the time might be right now for DD to approach him about "coming home" and offer him a MiL contract with provisions for him to make a lot more on a per-start basis when he comes to Boston. Something like $1M guaranteed in the minors with an additional $500,000 for each ML start. If he can stay healthy and make 20 ML starts he gets $11M - and would probably be worth it.

 

Unfortunately for the Sox he probably won't jump at that because he's going to want guaranteed money but if he hasn't signed someplace by Xmas a contract like that may start looking better to him.

 

Also unfortunately, 11 million is too much pie in our lux tax situation. Especially if we hope to sign Eovaldi.

[notin]

Also unfortunately, 11 million is too much pie in our lux tax situation. Especially if we hope to sign Eovaldi.

 

We’re talking about Clay Buchholz here. He isn’t going to make 20 starts...

[cp176]

My goodness it seems like just yesterday that there were people on here saying that old Clay would be worth 13 million for a half year's work. I think that it was even after the "cliff concept" propelled itself to the forefront of discussion. Hey - now that I think about it, it was just yesterday. lol