And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

And BTW, I'm not saying it's bad for baseball. I'm just saying that's the way it is.

 

I think the primary goal is to limit salaries. The financial penalties have the impact of letting some of the star free agents receive offers from teams beyond just the biggest of spenders...

[S5Dewey]

I think the primary goal is to limit salaries. The financial penalties have the impact of letting some of the star free agents receive offers from teams beyond just the biggest of spenders...

 

I agree completely. That's where I was going with it. MLB is attempting to limit total team salaries to make more elite players available to the teams with lower revenue streams.

[notin]

I agree completely. That's where I was going with it. MLB is attempting to limit total team salaries to make more elite players available to the teams with lower revenue streams.

 

I think that’s a good thing. The fans of the Reds and the Royals and the Rockies need stars to root for, too...

[cp176]

I'm with you on this. DD may make moves none of us are talking about. We are weak at RP, second, could improve at catcher and will definitely need starting pitching by 2020. It doesn't look like we can fill those needs from within, so look for DD to address them in a way that will be benficial for the club. So far he has done very well and one would hope that will continue.

 

Yes and I have been reading and posting here so much that I am convinced that "we can't sign them all" but that doesn't really alarm me all that much. Losing some of our "stars" does not necessarily mean that we all of a sudden are fighting it out for third or fourth in our division. I truly think that if the management team stays together, a good job will be done to keep us competitive. There will no 2020 cliff meaning that we just won't be able to compete. A lot of things can and will happen before then. The drum of despair continues to beat but I'm not listening. Got to say also that some of these guys that we love so much from a talent perspective might even be over rated.

[moonslav59]

I don't think a drop off happens in 2020. I think it will be 2021.

 

I don't despair or get anxiety over our future, but when I think about it (usually when someone else brings it up) I do have concerns.

 

We won't lose everyone. We will keep enough to probably not finish in last place, but I thought that in 2012, 2014 and 2015, too.

 

A lot depends on what our budget will be, and that is largely unpredictable, so I can understand why many feel it is futile to even think about it, let alone discuss it, but to me, winter is always about "next year" (and after), except maybe now, when we still are celebrating a championship and basking in the glory.

 

[sk7326]

:confused:

Of course the taxes and rule changes affect parity.

 

Revenue sharing is what allows the teams with poorer attendance and less lucrative TV deals to remain competitive. Or at least it should although some owners have been accused of 'tanking', not acquiring talent, and instead pocketing the money. IIRC MLB is already looking into that.

 

The "Competitive Balance Tax" is exactly that. A tax on teams with higher salaries designed to ensure that as many teams as possible are competitive. They couldn't have said it any plainer than they did when they called it a Competitive Balance Tax. It's a tax designed to balance competition.

The thinking is that if MLB can put a huge disincentive on a team's intent to spend big (a CBT) then the team won't sign multiple free agents because paying those FA's plus the indexed tax will cut into the profits of the team. "Follow the money".

 

Limiting the money that can be spent on International signings (as well as slotting draft picks) is, again, designed to prevent the richer teams from having an "unfair" financial advantage over the poorer teams by putting a cap on what they can pay International players and draft picks. Nearly everything that's being done is being done to penalize the teams with higher revenue streams and reward the teams with lower revenue streams in the interest of parity.

 

The argument can certainly be made that it's not working (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.) but that doesn't mean that MLB is done trying. MLB wants to keep fans in every city believing that their team has a legitimate chance to win the WS so they will continue to put their fannies in the seats and buy the overpriced beer. Look for more and more and more taxes and restrictions until it becomes fiscally prohibitive for teams to develop even a minor "dynasty'.

 

The race to mediocrity is on!

 

Not that much - baseball has a pretty good diversity of entrants. The tax rules and the draft/signing rules don't impact things much.

 

In fact, draft and international caps hurt smaller teams A LOT more.

[sk7326]

I think that’s a good thing. The fans of the Reds and the Royals and the Rockies need stars to root for, too...

 

There are only a limited number of buyers - they'd get stars anyway.

[Kimmi]

If our farm can keep producing prospects good enough for other GMs to trade the Eovaldi's, Pearce's and Nunez's of the league every summer, then I guess one could claim our system is bearing fruit, but I'm thinking more in terms of getting an infusion of young talent that is at pre-arb costs, so we can balance out the big contracts we will need to give our soon-to-be free agents.

 

Well that's all good as long as all you need to add are the midseason guys like Eovaldi, Pearce, and Nunez.

 

But there will come a time, very soon, where we will have to add the Xanders and the Sales, etc. Our farm is not equipped to do that.

[moonslav59]

Well that's all good as long as all you need to add are the midseason guys like Eovaldi, Pearce, and Nunez.

 

But there will come a time, very soon, where we will have to add the Xanders and the Sales, etc. Our farm is not equipped to do that.

 

I get that, and that's why I am a "cliff dweller." It's also why I think 2021 is ground zero. We can still be highly competitive in 2020 by adding guys like Eovaldi, Pearce and Nunez- after that we enter the great unknown.

[cp176]

I get that, and that's why I am a "cliff dweller." It's also why I think 2021 is ground zero. We can still be highly competitive in 2020 by adding guys like Eovaldi, Pearce and Nunez- after that we enter the great unknown.

 

It is going to be fun watching this franchise continue to find ways to be successful when the inevitable shroud of darkness falls upon us. I'm willing to still bet on the good guys.

[notin]

Well that's all good as long as all you need to add are the midseason guys like Eovaldi, Pearce, and Nunez.

 

But there will come a time, very soon, where we will have to add the Xanders and the Sales, etc. Our farm is not equipped to do that.

 

I’m hoping they can retain as many Killer B’s as possible, but really, what is a realistic number? Maybe 2? Maybe not even? A lot of these players have already refused extension talks (as Bradley and Bogaerts are represented by Boras, this is not a surprise). So in order to keep them, it’s probably market price. For Betts , that means the Machado-Harper payscale that we’re going to see in the next 5-6 weeks. But I don’t expect all of them to leave.

 

Sale is a different matter. He probably shouldn’t be re-signed when his deal is up. And Eovaldi is not going to replace him...

[notin]

There are only a limited number of buyers - they'd get stars anyway.

 

There are more than we like to count. Some do go to Japan and bypass the regulated salary system here...

[moonslav59]

It is going to be fun watching this franchise continue to find ways to be successful when the inevitable shroud of darkness falls upon us. I'm willing to still bet on the good guys.

 

IMO, it's going to take massive spending. That's not impossible, but to me, I think we re-set the luxury tax after 2020, and if we do that, "finding ways" within the current system is going to be extremely difficult.

 

Again, I'm not fretting or in despair. I love this team and am very happy with where we are going into next year, and I'm okay with a down year or two, because I know we will bounce back after re-setting the tax.

[moonslav59]

I’m hoping they can retain as many Killer B’s as possible, but really, what is a realistic number? Maybe 2? Maybe not even? A lot of these players have already refused extension talks (as Bradley and Bogaerts are represented by Boras, this is not a surprise). So in order to keep them, it’s probably market price. For Betts , that means the Machado-Harper payscale that we’re going to see in the next 5-6 weeks. But I don’t expect all of them to leave.

 

Sale is a different matter. He probably shouldn’t be re-signed when his deal is up. And Eovaldi is not going to replace him...

 

We can probably keep Betts, Bogey & JBJ, but say good bye to Porcello (likely) and probably both Sale & JD (to opt out).

[jacksonianmarch]

JBJ’s contract is gonna be fascinating. A below average bat with tantalizing ups and crushing lows with top notch defense in a premium position. He’s a Boras client, so he won’t be cheap. I’d say he’s a Kiermaier comp, but he signed his extension after three years service time. My guess is Bradley would see somewhere along the lines of $15 mil per season unless he has an offensive renaissance in his final two years of control

[Slasher9]

We can probably keep Betts, Bogey & JBJ, but say good bye to Porcello (likely) and probably both Sale & JD (to opt out).

 

i dont believe we can keep all 3.

i think all 3 go to FA and someone will outbid us for at least 1 of them.

X-Bo & JBj are Boras clients so those 2 will def go to FA.

[mvp 78]

JBJ’s contract is gonna be fascinating. A below average bat with tantalizing ups and crushing lows with top notch defense in a premium position. He’s a Boras client, so he won’t be cheap. I’d say he’s a Kiermaier comp, but he signed his extension after three years service time. My guess is Bradley would see somewhere along the lines of $15 mil per season unless he has an offensive renaissance in his final two years of control

 

Hard pass at $15M. I don't think he gets higher than $12 and I'd rather him to be at $10.

[cp176]

i dont believe we can keep all 3.

i think all 3 go to FA and someone will outbid us for at least 1 of them.

X-Bo & JBj are Boras clients so those 2 will def go to FA.

 

It really is going to boil right down to who they think they really need to keep. Which guys are replaceable to a certain extent and which guys aren't. It is going to get interesting when we folk at talksox start debating who we think should be kept and who we can live without.

[mvp 78]

It really is going to boil right down to who they think they really need to keep. Which guys are replaceable to a certain extent and which guys aren't. It is going to get interesting when we folk at talksox start debating who we think should be kept and who we can live without.

 

Overpay to keep Mookie and Xander IMO. Then you still have a core of Mookie, Xander, Devers and Benintendi which is basically what the entire top of your lineup will look like in 2 years.

[cp176]

Overpay to keep Mookie and Xander IMO. Then you still have a core of Mookie, Xander, Devers and Benintendi which is basically what the entire top of your lineup will look like in 2 years.

 

I think that it is likely that JBJ prices himself out of Boston.

[mvp 78]

I think that it is likely that JBJ prices himself out of Boston.

 

I still believe that a market for JBJ doesn't develop the way people think and that there is a very good chance he stays at $10 AAV.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kiermaier got $9 mil AAV after his third year of service. On the open market, he’s have gotten much more. I expect Bradley’s defense to price himself out of Boston and with teams looking to compete by the time he’s an FA, I think wallets will be more open

[mvp 78]

Kiermaier got $9 mil AAV after his third year of service. On the open market, he’s have gotten much more. I expect Bradley’s defense to price himself out of Boston and with teams looking to compete by the time he’s an FA, I think wallets will be more open

 

Kiermaier was also coming off back to back 4 win seasons.

 

Maybe the bigger issue will be NYC and LAD driving up prices this offseason and increasing player value going forward? We'll see. Let's see what type of dollars AJ Pollack gets and then we can see what the ceiling for JBJ would be.

[kenmeister]

i dont believe we can keep all 3.

i think all 3 go to FA and someone will outbid us for at least 1 of them.

X-Bo & JBj are Boras clients so those 2 will def go to FA.

 

I'm even more pessimistic, honestly. After these players depart we may have to wait for the next young core to emerge.

[Nick]

I'm even more pessimistic, honestly. After these players depart we may have to wait for the next young core to emerge.

 

I think you go for it next two years while you still have Betts. We may need several one year rentals for 2020 to stay competitive.

[Nick]

Kiermaier got $9 mil AAV after his third year of service. On the open market, he’s have gotten much more. I expect Bradley’s defense to price himself out of Boston and with teams looking to compete by the time he’s an FA, I think wallets will be more open

 

Can you see a scenario whereby Sox trading away one major piece (for younger pieces) and still remain competitive for 2020?

[moonslav59]

I think Henry might agree to send big for 2 more years (2019 & 2020), then he forces a re-set.

 

Just my opinion- no evidence.

[dgalehouse]

We have enjoyed watching some great Red Sox teams in recent years. Now is the time for us to pitch in. If every member of Red Sox Nation would contribute only nineteen dollars a month ( just pennies a day ) , we could enable Sox ownership to keep this team intact for years to come. Please help today.

[mvp 78]

Kiermaier was also coming off back to back 4 win seasons.

 

Maybe the bigger issue will be NYC and LAD driving up prices this offseason and increasing player value going forward? We'll see. Let's see what type of dollars AJ Pollack gets and then we can see what the ceiling for JBJ would be.

 

@EricFisherSBJ

 

Industry sources say MLB’s new rights deal w Fox Sports is a 7-yr deal covering the 2022-28 seasons and is worth about $5.1B, about a 50 percent bump from the current term.

[notin]

We have enjoyed watching some great Red Sox teams in recent years. Now is the time for us to pitch in. If every member of Red Sox Nation would contribute only nineteen dollars a month ( just pennies a day ) , we could enable Sox ownership to keep this team intact for years to come. Please help today.

 

 

For the price of only four cups of coffee at Starbucks*

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Starbucks coffee not meant to be taken internally