And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

It makes perfect sense to offer Pearce a 1 year deal and see if he can do better in the market.

 

I’m sure the Sox will make an offer, but one year? I assume it will be enclosed in a “Good Luck” card,.

 

The man turns 36 next year. Think he wants more free agency at this stage of his career?

[Dojji]

3/24 split 10, 10 and 4 might work for both sides

[moonslav59]

3/24 split 10, 10 and 4 might work for both sides

 

It works great for Pearce, since he may be lucky to get $16M/2 or $20M/3.

 

I'm not sure we want $8M on the luxury tax budget for 2021, when we'll be pinching pennies everywhere to try and keep Betts.

[jacksonianmarch]

3/24 split 10, 10 and 4 might work for both sides

 

I’d max out at 3 and $18 mil. If he takes a higher AAV and shorter years, good luck. He’d have trouble topping that cash outlay

[harmony]

MLB Trade Rumors offers its offseason outlook for the Red Sox:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox-9.html

[sk7326]

I’m sure the Sox will make an offer, but one year? I assume it will be enclosed in a “Good Luck” card,.

 

The man turns 36 next year. Think he wants more free agency at this stage of his career?

 

I think 1 year achieveable option is sensible ... I could see 2 years with a more team friendly third year. But given his age and career, you have to bet the under on his production going forward if you are looking at him outside of a platoon deal.

[SoxnCycles]

If the Red Sox offer Pearce $2M, he will laugh in their face as well he should. If they offer $5M and a bunch of other people are offering $7M or something - then the other factors will probably kick in. If I were in his position I would want to be paid fairly - maybe not top dollar, but not insultingly so either. (like lester 4/70)

 

Exactly.

Don't low ball the guy and there's a good chance he'll choose to come back.

[notin]

I’d max out at 3 and $18 mil. If he takes a higher AAV and shorter years, good luck. He’d have trouble topping that cash outlay

 

The $6mill AAV seems to be about where the platoon/role players have been fit Boston in recent years, like Gomes and Chris Young. I expect a similar deal for Pearce, with 2-3 years being the range. No team is going in on him so much more than that that this is a cheapskate offer...

[kenmeister]

We've officially reached the part of the offseason where it's all speculation and nothing's happened. In short ... I'm bored. Wake me up when someone signs somewhere...

[notin]

We've officially reached the part of the offseason where it's all speculation and nothing's happened. In short ... I'm bored. Wake me up when someone signs somewhere...

 

As long as it isn’t as slow as last off-season. Most years the free agents start signing around Thanksgiving and the bulk sign in December. Last year a lot were still unsigned well into January...

[Bellhorn04]

We've officially reached the part of the offseason where it's all speculation and nothing's happened. In short ... I'm bored. Wake me up when someone signs somewhere...

 

We're all bored. That's why we create things to argue about.

[mvp 78]

We've officially reached the part of the offseason where it's all speculation and nothing's happened. In short ... I'm bored. Wake me up when someone signs somewhere...

 

"It's almost Thanksgiving" and DESPERATE DAVE has yet to make one move. WTeFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

[cp176]

We're all bored. That's why we create things to argue about.

 

Where is Larry when we need him.

[Bellhorn04]

Where is Larry when we need him.

 

Larry's still here, in spirit.

[cp176]

It works great for Pearce, since he may be lucky to get $16M/2 or $20M/3.

 

I'm not sure we want $8M on the luxury tax budget for 2021, when we'll be pinching pennies everywhere to try and keep Betts.

 

pinching pennies = Boston Red Sox

[Bellhorn04]

pinching pennies = Boston Red Sox

 

Yes, the campaign is underway...Pinch Pennies for Mookie!

[BillyWilliams]

pinching pennies = Boston Red Sox

 

Kinda hard to say that about a team that just paid out almost $240M last year......

[moonslav59]

pinching pennies = Boston Red Sox

 

Pinching pennies to reset the luxury tax, yes.

 

Pinching pennies on the grander scale, no.

[kenmeister]

"It's almost Thanksgiving" and DESPERATE DAVE has yet to make one move. WTeFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

 

Actually I meant no one has signed anywhere, not just the Sox. I don't expect the Sox to make many moves. There's just no actual baseball news to read about.

 

But I did read this from Joe Kelly:

 

"It’s one of those things where I don’t even feel like a free agent because I still feel like I’m a part of the Boston Red Sox. I still feel like that’s where I’m going to be for the rest of my career. When people bring up free agency it’s like, ‘Oh crap, I am a free agent.’ And I happened to pitch well in the postseason and now teams are going to want me to play for their team.

 

It’s one of those things where it still — I just got back to California a couple days ago, my wife just drove in with our dogs from Boston, she made a long three day drive, which God bless her heart — So it’s one of those things where we just got back, so free agency right now is just me just coming back to California, just relaxing, having a good time with my family.

 

Like I said deep down inside I still feel like I’m on the Red Sox even though technically I’m not. So it’s one of those things, it’s going to be fun to see what teams are interested in me, and hopefully I can be a Red Sox through the rest of my career."

[notin]

pinching pennies = Boston Red Sox

 

Well they pinched out outer $200mill worth of pennies last year. I can’t accuse this ownership of being cheap just because they don’t want to pay every financial penalty...

[dgalehouse]

You have to make every effort to keep Mookie. He is that good. However, you still have to put a championship caliber team around him. If you have to pinch pennies elsewhere to be able to afford Mookie, what good is it ? Neither he nor anyone else can carry a mediocre team to a title. This is not the NBA , where one superstar can make all the difference.

[notin]

You have to make every effort to keep Mookie. He is that good. However, you still have to put a championship caliber team around him. If you have to pinch pennies elsewhere to be able to afford Mookie, what good is it ? Neither he nor anyone else can carry a mediocre team to a title. This is not the NBA , where one superstar can make all the difference.

 

While you do want a good team around Mookie, does that team need to have a 36yo backup firstbaseman making $6-8mill?

[cp176]

Pinching pennies to reset the luxury tax, yes.

 

Pinching pennies on the grander scale, no.

 

I caught your comment earlier about finding it hard to understand how some people still think that we will be able to rebuild our farm in just 2 years - such a short time. I am that guy who does not worry at all about this team being able to compete with or without our band of superstars moving forward. I am sure that you are as tired of me telling you that I still have a great deal of faith in our ownership and management, as I am of hearing from you and yes some others about how unrealistic people like me are. We just all need to face the reality that we are soon to be screwed. I'm not buying it. Now once again I'll be asked to support my feelings and hopes with some kind of proof - I won't. Oh and by the way, anyone who knows me, knows full well that I don't think that this club is going to be pinching a pennies soon.

[cp176]

Kinda hard to say that about a team that just paid out almost $240M last year......

 

 

tongue and cheek

[jacksonianmarch]

It is difficult to sustain greatness without some input from the farm. In 2016, Beni came up. In 2017, Devers came up. 2018 yielded no fruit. 2019 looks to not yield any either. You can only go so long with young guys without replenishing them because young guys eventually get pricy. I legitimately think 2019 is the final year of Sale in Boston. His arm will either be shredded or the sox will make a calculated move not to pay big bucks for a long term deal for him due to his injury history. I also think DD lets JD walk. I think he will re-sign Xander. He will be in on Bumgarner next year and try to bring in an ace from the outside. He will leave enough money on the table to try and re-sign Betts. But without them replacing 2b, 1b, and many other spots with guys from the minors, he will have to spend on guys who aren't worth it and the house of cards falls

[kenmeister]

It is difficult to sustain greatness without some input from the farm. In 2016, Beni came up. In 2017, Devers came up. 2018 yielded no fruit. 2019 looks to not yield any either. You can only go so long with young guys without replenishing them because young guys eventually get pricy. I legitimately think 2019 is the final year of Sale in Boston. His arm will either be shredded or the sox will make a calculated move not to pay big bucks for a long term deal for him due to his injury history. I also think DD lets JD walk. I think he will re-sign Xander. He will be in on Bumgarner next year and try to bring in an ace from the outside. He will leave enough money on the table to try and re-sign Betts. But without them replacing 2b, 1b, and many other spots with guys from the minors, he will have to spend on guys who aren't worth it and the house of cards falls

 

Hence my hope that Lin gets a shot and earns the 2B job. But yeah, the positional player cupboard seems barren. But to say "2018 yielded no fruit" ignores some nice pitching talent.

[notin]

Hence my hope that Lin gets a shot and earns the 2B job. But yeah, the positional player cupboard seems barren. But to say "2018 yielded no fruit" ignores some nice pitching talent.

 

I’m not so sure Lin is a better option than Holt or Nunez. And Quiroz was brought in for this type of situation. To me, Lin looks like his ceiling is utility infielder. Or maybe glove-first starting shortstop in a bad team...

[moonslav59]

I caught your comment earlier about finding it hard to understand how some people still think that we will be able to rebuild our farm in just 2 years - such a short time. I am that guy who does not worry at all about this team being able to compete with or without our band of superstars moving forward. I am sure that you are as tired of me telling you that I still have a great deal of faith in our ownership and management, as I am of hearing from you and yes some others about how unrealistic people like me are. We just all need to face the reality that we are soon to be screwed. I'm not buying it. Now once again I'll be asked to support my feelings and hopes with some kind of proof - I won't. Oh and by the way, anyone who knows me, knows full well that I don't think that this club is going to be pinching a pennies soon.

 

You don't think we will try to reset the luxury tax in 2-3 years?

 

If we don't, Henry will be facing mega taxes at multiplied rates and possible lowering of draft picks as well.

 

I'd love to be wrong on this, but I'm thinking we try to reset after 2020. It could happen after next year, but I think we shoot for 2 more ring opportunities, before the spending will be checked for at least a year.

 

One big issue is that Betts & JBJ reach free agency in a winter that might be chosen as the "re-set winter," so that would be very difficult, unless we try not to sign anybody to big money for more than 2 years this winter.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but I also do not want to hear people telling me my team's owner bought rings. I'm not sure Henry wants to be viewed that way either.

 

BTW, I don't think anyone that doesn't think we are going to hit a wall (financially or otherwise) in 2-3 years is being "unrealistic," and in light of Henry spending (this year) like he never has before, maybe it's me being unrealistic to think Henry won't do whatever it takes to remain competitive for as long as he is the owner, but until I see it happen, I'm thinking we will reset after 2020.

 

A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.

 

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

[moonslav59]

Hence my hope that Lin gets a shot and earns the 2B job. But yeah, the positional player cupboard seems barren. But to say "2018 yielded no fruit" ignores some nice pitching talent.

 

What 2018 pitching prospect fruit was plucked? Am I missing something?

 

2018 gave us nothing from the farm.

 

2019 might give us Chavis and Quiroz.

[cp176]

You don't think we will try to reset the luxury tax in 2-3 years?

 

If we don't, Henry will be facing mega taxes at multiplied rates and possible lowering of draft picks as well.

 

I'd love to be wrong on this, but I'm thinking we try to reset after 2020. It could happen after next year, but I think we shoot for 2 more ring opportunities, before the spending will be checked for at least a year.

 

One big issue is that Betts & JBJ reach free agency in a winter that might be chosen as the "re-set winter," so that would be very difficult, unless we try not to sign anybody to big money for more than 2 years this winter.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but I also do not want to hear people telling me my team's owner bought rings. I'm not sure Henry wants to be viewed that way either.

 

BTW, I don't think anyone that doesn't think we are going to hit a wall (financially or otherwise) in 2-3 years is being "unrealistic," and in light of Henry spending (this year) like he never has before, maybe it's me being unrealistic to think Henry won't do whatever it takes to remain competitive for as long as he is the owner, but until I see it happen, I'm thinking we will reset after 2020.

 

A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.

 

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

 

We very well might reset. You are not the only person that has gone on about how much all of these things are going to cost. How many players we will or will not be able to sign. If I am being unrealistic in my thinking, that is just fine. I absolutely believe and have faith in the fact that the guys that are currently in charge know what they are doing and I don't think that their only thought is to get through next year. There will likely be many things that neither you nor anyone else has predicted that will occur before and during our doomsday year.

I have mentioned this before also but when you mention JH spending like he has never spent before, we have over 70 million dollars tied up in players that did not help us this year. Take that out of that budget and things don't looks so bad.

After 2020, yup our team may look very different. Actually it obviously will. I will also add that as much as I like this team, most of them are probably replaceable. Maybe not with the same level of competence but replaceable. Don't take this the wrong way because I certainly am no fan of Bill James, I actually think that he is a creep, but with respect to players being replaceable to a certain extent I think he has a point. I also think that we will get some help from our farm system.