Should Eovaldi be re-sign?

[Bellhorn04]

This how I feel.

 

I think Eovaldi will be too expensive for our limited budget.

 

For 2019 he will be. But for 2020 we may be losing both Sale and Porcello.

[moonslav59]

For 2019 he will be. But for 2020 we may be losing both Sale and Porcello.

 

Yes, but he's a FA this winter and will likely sign a multi-year deal.

 

We can afford him, but if we sign him, we may not be able to sign any/many pen arms.

[moonslav59]

Moon - really - "limited budget" - Could you make me feel better by using another expression? LOL

Regardless of how much money the organization chooses to spend, it isn't limited. I wonder if any of the other teams in the game feel sorry for us having to get by on our limited budget. I'm just kidding around there but what I'm serious about is that if John Henry wants any of these guys badly enough, he isn't going to feel restricted by any budgetary restraints particularly if we win the series this year.

 

We have limits. I think the term is justified.

 

Our limit my be $39.9M over the luxury tax limit next year. It may be less than that.

 

If we win, I could see henry trying to position us to reset the tax, but I think he'll wait for 2020 or 2021 for that.

 

I know it sounds funny to call the biggest spending team in MLB "limited", but with all our arb cases coming due and Pablo's contract still on the books, I do think DD will be restricted (or limited) in the amount he can spend next season.

 

If we don't win this year (very slight chance), I think henry will allow DD to spend as much as needed to try and win in 2019, since the window begins to close soon after 2019.

[moonslav59]

For 2019 he will be. But for 2020 we may be losing both Sale and Porcello.

 

...and Pablito.

[Station 13]

...and Pablito.

 

Good riddance

[cp176]

We have limits. I think the term is justified.

 

Our limit my be $39.9M over the luxury tax limit next year. It may be less than that.

 

If we win, I could see henry trying to position us to reset the tax, but I think he'll wait for 2020 or 2021 for that.

 

I know it sounds funny to call the biggest spending team in MLB "limited", but with all our arb cases coming due and Pablo's contract still on the books, I do think DD will be restricted (or limited) in the amount he can spend next season.

 

If we don't win this year (very slight chance), I think henry will allow DD to spend as much as needed to try and win in 2019, since the window begins to close soon after 2019.

 

Obviously the term limited is relative used in this context. I thought that it might amuse you when talking about millions of dollars being thrown into the the world of entertainment. It is relative - to some 39.9 M really appears more dreamlike.

I missed my humor mark - sorry about that. If John Henry wins this year and wants to continue to win and it means that he might have to spend more than what you or our other resident budgetary geniuses suspect he is willing to spend, imo he will spend it even if it means that he has to ignore our opinions. He likes to win.

[moonslav59]

Obviously the term limited is relative used in this context. I thought that it might amuse you when talking about millions of dollars being thrown into the the world of entertainment. It is relative - to some 39.9 M really appears more dreamlike.

I missed my humor mark - sorry about that. If John Henry wins this year and wants to continue to win and it means that he might have to spend more than what you or our other resident budgetary geniuses suspect he is willing to spend, imo he will spend it even if it means that he has to ignore our opinions. He likes to win.

 

He may decide to keep spending more and more.

 

I believe this year, we ended up just barely under the max $40M line. Just keeping that the same next year will force DD to be "limited" in his spending. That's what I meant by limited.

 

If $39.9M over is "the limit" again next year, then we probably can't keep Eovaldi & Kimbrel, unless we dump other salary somewhere-somehow.

[notin]

Obviously the term limited is relative used in this context. I thought that it might amuse you when talking about millions of dollars being thrown into the the world of entertainment. It is relative - to some 39.9 M really appears more dreamlike.

I missed my humor mark - sorry about that. If John Henry wins this year and wants to continue to win and it means that he might have to spend more than what you or our other resident budgetary geniuses suspect he is willing to spend, imo he will spend it even if it means that he has to ignore our opinions. He likes to win.

 

The safest assumption is he won't continue to overspend just to please us. It's easy to say he will just spend as much as it takes, but we have seen historically that that simply is not true. He capped the budget in 2017. And he capped the budget in 2012. And probably set other limits we don't even know about.

 

He already spends close to a quarter billion a year on this team, and at some point he is going to decide he is spending enough. Ideally, I think we can both agree he would prefer to win more while spending less. Who wouldn't? And we both know he can't achieve that by spending more...

[notin]

He may decide to keep spending more and more.

 

I believe this year, we ended up just barely under the max $40M line. Just keeping that the same next year will force DD to be "limited" in his spending. That's what I meant by limited.

 

If $39.9M over is "the limit" again next year, then we probably can't keep Eovaldi & Kimbrel, unless we dump other salary somewhere-somehow.

 

That is possible. The guy does like to make trades...

[Dojji]

The problem is we don't have any homegrown starter talent.

 

We have plenty of guys who can fill out the bottom 2 spots in the rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

We have plenty of guys who can fill out the bottom 2 spots in the rotation.

 

Steven Wright

Brian Johnson

Hector Velazquez

 

Who am I missing?

[notin]

Steven Wright

Brian Johnson

Hector Velazquez

 

Who am I missing?

 

How many do the Sox need?

[mvp 78]

How many do the Sox need?

 

For start of the year depth? 9 capable SP's.

[S5Dewey]

The safest assumption is he won't continue to overspend just to please us. It's easy to say he will just spend as much as it takes, but we have seen historically that that simply is not true. He capped the budget in 2017. And he capped the budget in 2012. And probably set other limits we don't even know about.

 

He already spends close to a quarter billion a year on this team, and at some point he is going to decide he is spending enough. Ideally, I think we can both agree he would prefer to win more while spending less. Who wouldn't? And we both know he can't achieve that by spending more...

 

JH's limit may come down to what his ROI is. Unfortunately none of us know what the bottom line is after the bills are paid and the income is in but you can bet that JH does. Baseball is a funny game and the playoffs are even funnier and there's no guarantee that spending more money will allow a team to move deeper into the playoffs and therefore reap more profits. I see it as being a gamble for JH - how much more is he willing to spend in anticipation of the Sox playing in the WS again?

 

It's possible (but IMO unlikely) that JH only owns the Red Sox as a toy and doesn't care how much money he spends and how much money the team loses. That's possible but I don't see it happening that way.

[notin]

JH's limit may come down to what his ROI is. Unfortunately none of us know what the bottom line is after the bills are paid and the income is in but you can bet that JH does. Baseball is a funny game and the playoffs are even funnier and there's no guarantee that spending more money will allow a team to move deeper into the playoffs and therefore reap more profits. I see it as being a gamble for JH - how much more is he willing to spend in anticipation of the Sox playing in the WS again?

 

It's possible (but IMO unlikely) that JH only owns the Red Sox as a toy and doesn't care how much money he spends and how much money the team loses. That's possible but I don't see it happening that way.

 

I simplify his financial involvement, but you have a point. It might be a dalliance for Henry.

 

But then part of me thinks it’s tough to get to be a billionaire if you routinely have a $250mill dalliance...

[cp176]

He may decide to keep spending more and more.

 

I believe this year, we ended up just barely under the max $40M line. Just keeping that the same next year will force DD to be "limited" in his spending. That's what I meant by limited.

 

If $39.9M over is "the limit" again next year, then we probably can't keep Eovaldi & Kimbrel, unless we dump other salary somewhere-somehow.

 

I understand this and I get it and you quite likely might be correct in your thinking but trying to predict how a billionaire chooses to spend their money isn't always an easy game to play. Looking at all of the monetary restrictions that have been imposed in an effort to create parody and the size of this team's current budget, i think that the common sense route agrees with your thinking. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me if JH didn't feel quite as constrained by spending limits as most of us think he might. Maybe there is a billionaire amongst us. I'm not sure they view the world quite like I do. There I've come clean - I'm no billionaire!

[bkzwhitestrican]

The Red Sox probably value Nate more than most other teams since he has proven he can pitch well against the Yankees and pitch well in Yankee stadium.

 

2018 Nate vs Yankees: 1.93 ERA & 0.77 WHIP

2018 Nate vs everyone else: 4.31 ERA & 1.24 WHIP

 

I would be surprised if he does not return. But also glad.

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox probably value Nate more than most other teams since he has proven he can pitch well against the Yankees and pitch well in Yankee stadium.

 

2018 Nate vs Yankees: 1.93 ERA & 0.77 WHIP

2018 Nate vs everyone else: 4.31 ERA & 1.24 WHIP

 

I would be surprised if he does not return. But also glad.

 

It all depends on the price tag.

 

Also, if the Yankees are planning to become less right handed in terms of their line up, then Eovaldi might not be as effective.

 

I would definitely re-sign him, but only at a reasonable cost.

[Nick]

He may decide to keep spending more and more.

 

I believe this year, we ended up just barely under the max $40M line. Just keeping that the same next year will force DD to be "limited" in his spending. That's what I meant by limited.

 

If $39.9M over is "the limit" again next year, then we probably can't keep Eovaldi & Kimbrel, unless we dump other salary somewhere-somehow.

 

Cot has updated CB Payroll for 2019 with projected arbitration pay of $63M for 13 players.

 

Basically 40 man CB Payroll which includes player benefit is now up to $212M before adding any players. We lose Kimbrel, Pom, Kelly and Nunez (he's NOT in $212M, Moon). Tax threashhold for 2019 is now $206M and say we get right up to second tier, or $206M + $39M for $245M. Basically we have $33M to come up with a fifth starter, a closer, a platoon partner at 1B and maybe depth at 2B.

 

Just for the sake of easy numbers, we will pay 30% on $40M instead of 20% as a second year offender in 2019. That amounts to $12M instead of $8M. We'll also pay a surcharge of 12% on $20M, or $2.4M. The first surcharge (between $20-$40M overage remains the same.

 

So we'll pay $14.4M instead of $10.4M in penalties because we are a second year offender. To me, spending $20M to $39.9999999M really has no real consequences. You're geting hit with $2.4M ADDITIONAL penalty, which is not a big deal. We've already decided that losing 10 spots is really not a big deal either when you're drafting 30th every year. At that point, you're basically throwing darts on draft board.

 

Question then becomes how creative can DD get with a 'budget' of $33M? Realistically, he'll spend $20M and pocket the rest for August trades.

Edited October 24, 2018 by Nick

[Dojji]

Steven Wright

Brian Johnson

Hector Velazquez

 

Who am I missing?

 

For next year at least, you're going to have E-Rod figghting for pitching time in the bottom of the rotation, if Price, Porcello and Sale are all healthy. That's 4 guys for 2 slots, 3 guys for 1 slot if you lock E-Rod in as the #4, and if the minor leagues turn up another bottom of the rotation guy you should be OK.

 

That doesn't mean our depth won't be tested, or that more depth isn't nearly always better, but the idea that there's no home grown guys to come in and take a rotation spot is simply untrue.

 

Personally I think Brian Johnson has earned a good honest chance at a rotation spot next year. If he doesn't get it because the depth ahead of him is too good, that's one thing, but he definitely looks like he's starting to round into shape as a solid #4 starter. He'll be in the wings and so will Wright at the start of the year, so with those two fighting for a job and Velazquez in the bullpen it'll take some injuries to really start to fray our depth.

 

Speaking of the minor leagues turning up another depth arm -- I won't guarantee anything, but keep an eye on Mike Shawaryn next year. He's not an ace type, but he's got some potential as another depth guy.

Edited October 24, 2018 by Dojji

[Dojji]

For start of the year depth? 9 capable SP's.

 

We're currently at 7 with a whole offseason to go

 

 

1 Sale

2 Price

3 Porcello

4 E-Rod

5 Wright

6 Johnson

7 Velazquez

 

(8 Mike Shawaryn?)

 

We need another depth starter, but not necessarily Eovaldi.

 

Personally I'd throw my money on Patrick Corbin, who as I understand it is about to hit FA out in Arizona. Less well known, so less hype money. Clearly talented, pretty durable, and above all, on the right side of 30. Eovaldi was a "buy low" guy when we got him, and Corbin is more like Eovaldi was then, then Eovaldi is now.

 

Eovaldi's performance in the postseason is going to inflate his price to a level where I'd be comfortable expecting the team to find another talent to buy low on. And as big a seller's market as free agent pitching can be, Corbin is as close to a buy-low candidate as you're likely to find at a price you can live with.

[notin]

Both Eovaldi and Corbin have had their share of injuries, which will limit their appeal and years...

[moonslav59]

How many do the Sox need?

 

We had these guys this year with Beeks, and we still had to go out and get Eovaldi.

[Jasonbay44]

I think one thing is clear, you can never have too much pitcher depth.

[jacksonianmarch]

Eovaldi is turning in a postseason for the ages. He’s got tantalizing stuff and is finally healthy. He’s gonna get paid. I’d agree with the sentiment halfway through the post. Sale’s shoulder is a real concern. His loss of velocity is a huge concern. He looks human after a regular season where he looked invincible. Eovaldi will shore up that rotation, but he won’t be cheap

[notin]

We had these guys this year with Beeks, and we still had to go out and get Eovaldi.

 

Yes, but slightly different. I’m all about pitching depth, but you need that depth to have minor league options...

[vegasbob]

Trusting that the Sox can win it all in the next week or so, does it take much pressure off ownership/GM to spend big to win again next year? The starting lineup will still be set at most positions, except 2B which depend greatly on Pedroia's knee issues. They should be able to win 90+ with the existing staff. Eovaldi and Pom were not big factors in the 108 wins, and Sale only pitched for about 4 months. One full year of Chris can fill the gap.

 

If the FO wants to get a start on a reset for 2020 when some of the important guys start going FA, then it could happen that the money is tighter in 2019 and bidding reopened in 2020. Mid-season acquisitions by trade can be made when you see where you are in the standings in late July, same as this year.

 

On the other hand, a somehow blown Series could change the direction. So hard to get there in the AL, I hope they win it all now, and let the winter and payroll budget be for hot stove time.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but slightly different. I’m all about pitching depth, but you need that depth to have minor league options...

 

I wasn't for signing depth last springs. I think you were. I'm not for spending big on a starter next year, unless Henry opens the checkbook wide.

 

I'm happy with the 8 guys we have going into next year, and feel like we can trade for someone next summer, if we need a starter. Eovaldi was not that expensive. Maybe DD will find a good one again, if needed.

[moonslav59]

Trusting that the Sox can win it all in the next week or so, does it take much pressure off ownership/GM to spend big to win again next year? The starting lineup will still be set at most positions, except 2B which depend greatly on Pedroia's knee issues. They should be able to win 90+ with the existing staff. Eovaldi and Pom were not big factors in the 108 wins, and Sale only pitched for about 4 months. One full year of Chris can fill the gap.

 

If the FO wants to get a start on a reset for 2020 when some of the important guys start going FA, then it could happen that the money is tighter in 2019 and bidding reopened in 2020. Mid-season acquisitions by trade can be made when you see where you are in the standings in late July, same as this year.

 

On the other hand, a somehow blown Series could change the direction. So hard to get there in the AL, I hope they win it all now, and let the winter and payroll budget be for hot stove time.

 

If we win this year, like I'm pretty sure we will, I think Henry and DD will keep us competitive for another year, but they may have re-setting the tax in 2020 or 2021 part of the 2019 plan.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi is turning in a postseason for the ages. He’s got tantalizing stuff and is finally healthy. He’s gonna get paid. I’d agree with the sentiment halfway through the post. Sale’s shoulder is a real concern. His loss of velocity is a huge concern. He looks human after a regular season where he looked invincible. Eovaldi will shore up that rotation, but he won’t be cheap

 

Signing anybody based on a 5-10 start stretch is usually not a good idea.

 

I have more confidence in Sale being strong all next year than Eovaldi.