A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[oldtimer]

Nunez is giving us next to nothing defensively with that bad leg. When pedroia is healthy, Nunez needs some dl time so the can determine if he needs surgery or not.

 

Nunez is a professional hitter and will do his part offensively. His mobility isn't good right now and he never has been a golden glover. Some tough decisions facing Cora and the front office.

[Larry Cook]

Nunez is a professional hitter and will do his part offensively. His mobility isn't good right now and he never has been a golden glover. Some tough decisions facing Cora and the front office.

 

It can be a long run from home plate to first base on one leg. Brings me back to the “Nunez crumble” during the playoffs last year.

[dgalehouse]

With 25% of the season gone , the Red Sox are tied for the best record in MLB. But some fans are disgruntled . I guess they had unreasonably lofty expectations.

[oldtimer]

Just an aside, but having a hitter like JDM on the club has got to be an example for the other players and in particular the younger ones. The level of his preparation and the way he settles himself after every pitch. The Sox front office was very right in signing him and are not only getting production but a form of leadership by example.

[moonslav59]

Betts & JD both over 1.000 in OPS.

 

These guys are carrying us, but we have gotten nice support by varying players all year.

[Larry Cook]

If the pitching and our health holds, we should be a playoff team this year.

 

Velasquez has exceeded my expectations. Maybe he deserves a spot start or two from here on out.

[cp176]

Just an aside, but having a hitter like JDM on the club has got to be an example for the other players and in particular the younger ones. The level of his preparation and the way he settles himself after every pitch. The Sox front office was very right in signing him and are not only getting production but a form of leadership by example.

 

I couldn't agree with you more.

[S5Dewey]

Betts & JD both over 1.000 in OPS.

 

These guys are carrying us, but we have gotten nice support by varying players all year.

 

I can remember when Papi had an OPS >1.000 and we looked at him like he was a God. Now we've got TWO guys in that stratosphere!

[Maxbialystock]

I like Velazquez too. He is a solid reliever and a 6th starter when needed. But it is ultimately the top 5 in the rotation and the collective bullpen that will make the difference over the rest of the season. Earlier, those 12 pitchers had the 2d best ERA in MLB. Now they are 9th (and the Yankees are 10th). Since that 17-2 run, the Sox have had issues with the rotation and the bullpen, but right now I like both (but not so much Hembree and Johnson and Pomeranz).

 

The hitting is 2d best behind the Yankees and generally relies too heavily on the top six or so in the order. If Pedroia returns with a good bat and either Moreland plays more at 1b (and JBJ sits) or JBJ starts hitting, the lineup will be better even if (probably when) Betts and JDM's OPS's drop a little.

 

Sox were 21-7 in March-April and are 7-5 so far in May with 10 of those games coming on the road and 6 of those 10 vs. the Yankees and Jays. Sox are 3-3 vs. the Yankees this year, and the last three in New York were very contested.

 

In other words, as moonslav has said all along, this is a solid team, a contender.

[jad]

With 25% of the season gone , the Red Sox are tied for the best record in MLB. But some fans are disgruntled . I guess they had unreasonably lofty expectations.

 

It's New England. That's who we are. I have a friend here who hates winter, and in mid-May she was heard to lament: "Oh God. In six weeks, the days will start getting shorter again."

[cp176]

I like Velazquez too. He is a solid reliever and a 6th starter when needed. But it is ultimately the top 5 in the rotation and the collective bullpen that will make the difference over the rest of the season. Earlier, those 12 pitchers had the 2d best ERA in MLB. Now they are 9th (and the Yankees are 10th). Since that 17-2 run, the Sox have had issues with the rotation and the bullpen, but right now I like both (but not so much Hembree and Johnson and Pomeranz).

 

The hitting is 2d best behind the Yankees and generally relies too heavily on the top six or so in the order. If Pedroia returns with a good bat and either Moreland plays more at 1b (and JBJ sits) or JBJ starts hitting, the lineup will be better even if (probably when) Betts and JDM's OPS's drop a little.

 

Sox were 21-7 in March-April and are 7-5 so far in May with 10 of those games coming on the road and 6 of those 10 vs. the Yankees and Jays. Sox are 3-3 vs. the Yankees this year, and the last three in New York were very contested.

 

In other words, as moonslav has said all along, this is a solid team, a contender.

 

Just have to add that it is a feeling that most of us have had.

[cp176]

It's New England. That's who we are. I have a friend here who hates winter, and in mid-May she was heard to lament: "Oh God. In six weeks, the days will start getting shorter again."

 

Good one - Up here summer doesn't come until July 4th and ends after Labor Day! lol

[S5Dewey]

[/b]

 

Good one - Up here summer doesn't come until July 4th and ends after Labor Day! lol

 

We had our spring one day last week. It was NICE!! LOL

[moonslav59]

I like Velazquez too. He is a solid reliever and a 6th starter when needed. But it is ultimately the top 5 in the rotation and the collective bullpen that will make the difference over the rest of the season. Earlier, those 12 pitchers had the 2d best ERA in MLB. Now they are 9th (and the Yankees are 10th). Since that 17-2 run, the Sox have had issues with the rotation and the bullpen, but right now I like both (but not so much Hembree and Johnson and Pomeranz).

 

The hitting is 2d best behind the Yankees and generally relies too heavily on the top six or so in the order. If Pedroia returns with a good bat and either Moreland plays more at 1b (and JBJ sits) or JBJ starts hitting, the lineup will be better even if (probably when) Betts and JDM's OPS's drop a little.

 

Sox were 21-7 in March-April and are 7-5 so far in May with 10 of those games coming on the road and 6 of those 10 vs. the Yankees and Jays. Sox are 3-3 vs. the Yankees this year, and the last three in New York were very contested.

 

In other words, as moonslav has said all along, this is a solid team, a contender.

 

Every year, somebody surprises to the good, and somebody surprises to the bad.

 

Velazquez could earn a key role on this team and squeeze out somebody not doing too well.

 

We have 3-4 guys who have gotten off to a rough start, but it's early yet, and that should be expected.

 

JD & Betts may not end up over 1.000, but over .900 is good enough, if the supporting cast does it's job.

 

To me, it comes down to our starting pitching and set-up pen guys. I like that we have Kelly, Smith and Thornburg line-up to win the spot below Kimbrel and others shooting for the 6th/7th inning roles. With so many to choose from, I think we'll be okay there.

 

I really think that this is our "best chance" year within the 4-5 year window DD created.

[Slasher9]

any word on how the carpal tunnel is feeling a couple days after the start?

if Mr. Tingles can pitch like a solid #2 for the rest of this season i do like our chances for a deep run.

[notin]

I can remember when Papi had an OPS >1.000 and we looked at him like he was a God. Now we've got TWO guys in that stratosphere!

 

We also did before when Manny was here with Ortiz. For all his craziness, Manny did top the 1.000 OPS mark 5 times in Boston and in his first 7 full seasons, only once had an OPS under .982. (Interestingly enough, the Sox won a World Series that year.)

[harmony]

They couldn’t do that. They’d need to hold him out for a week or so. The easiest option is the most obvious. Swihart is the a band aid that you know has to come off, but you’d rather leave it there for a bit more time and pretend you don’t have to rip it off. Swihart is useless to this squad

Blake Swihart is a year older now than Jarrod Saltalmacchia was in June 2010 when the Texas Rangers traded the switch-hitting catcher to the Red Sox for Chris McGuiness, Roman Mendez, Michael Thomas and cash. SoxProspects has never ranked the three prospects among the Top 20 in the organization. McGuiness and Thomas apparently are out of organized baseball while Mendez is a 27-year-old toiling at Double A.

 

Saltalamacchia peaked at No. 18 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list while Swihart peaked at No. 17.

 

At the time of the 2010 trade Saltalamacchia was back down at Triple A, much as Swihart had spent much of his age 25 season at Triple A after being a starter at the MLB level.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/red-sox-acquire-jarrod-saltalamacchia.html

 

With Saltalamacchia as his optimistic ceiling, Swihart has limited trade value.

[Maxbialystock]

Every year, somebody surprises to the good, and somebody surprises to the bad.

 

Velazquez could earn a key role on this team and squeeze out somebody not doing too well.

 

We have 3-4 guys who have gotten off to a rough start, but it's early yet, and that should be expected.

 

JD & Betts may not end up over 1.000, but over .900 is good enough, if the supporting cast does it's job.

 

To me, it comes down to our starting pitching and set-up pen guys. I like that we have Kelly, Smith and Thornburg line-up to win the spot below Kimbrel and others shooting for the 6th/7th inning roles. With so many to choose from, I think we'll be okay there.

 

I really think that this is our "best chance" year within the 4-5 year window DD created.

 

Agree on all, especially the pitching. I had my doubts, but regained confidence after the first two losses in Yankee Stadium. ERod was way better than I expected, and it wasn't luck. Porcello was awful for him, but the lineup got us that 6-5 lead going into the 8th when the wheels came off the bullpen. Losses are never good, but some are definitely better than others.

 

Now I still get stuff to gripe about (Pom yesterday), but do see what you and others like cp176 see. Toronto ain't half bad and the Sox darn near swept them.

 

Now it's the A's at our place against Porcello, ERod, and Sale: time to rectify losing 2 of 3 in Oakland 3 or so weeks ago.

[moonslav59]

Agree on all, especially the pitching. I had my doubts, but regained confidence after the first two losses in Yankee Stadium. ERod was way better than I expected, and it wasn't luck. Porcello was awful for him, but the lineup got us that 6-5 lead going into the 8th when the wheels came off the bullpen. Losses are never good, but some are definitely better than others.

 

Now I still get stuff to gripe about (Pom yesterday), but do see what you and others like cp176 see. Toronto ain't half bad and the Sox darn near swept them.

 

Now it's the A's at our place against Porcello, ERod, and Sale: time to rectify losing 2 of 3 in Oakland 3 or so weeks ago.

 

Got that right, Max.

 

However, it's just a 3 game series, so if we struggle, it doesn't mean all that much.

[Oscars]

The Sox are 11-11 in their last 22 games.

That’s nothing to write home about given their roster

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox are 11-11 in their last 22 games.

That’s nothing to write home about given their roster

 

The 11-11 isn't a big deal in itself.

 

Porcello looking bad 2 starts in a row is more of a concern.

[Nick]

The 11-11 isn't a big deal in itself.

 

Porcello looking bad 2 starts in a row is more of a concern.

 

We need at least 3 out of five going strong, right now it's Sale, E Rod and Price. Pom is just frustrating to watch right now. Maybe he can turn it around, it's still early.

[Slasher9]

Sale

3-1 / 2.17 / 58ip / 41H / 14ER / 11BB / 78K / 0.897 whip

 

Porcello

5-1 / 3.28 / 57.2ip / 50H / 21ER / 8BB / 54K / 1.006 whip

 

Price

3-4 / 4.89 / 42.1ip / 41H / 23ER / 19BB / 38K / 1.417 whip

 

Erod

3-0 / 4.58 / 37.1ip / 29H / 19ER / 16BB / 47K / 1.205 whip

 

Pom

1-1 / 5.47 / 24.2ip / 28H / 15ER / 13BB / 26K / 1.662 whip

[notin]

The Sox are 11-11 in their last 22 games.

That’s nothing to write home about given their roster

 

It's actually not a concern.

 

They're not going to win more than 60% of their games this year, so winning 50% (or lower) for a large stretch is expected at some point.

 

If they were 13-9 instead would you be worried? If a team plays at a 13-9 clip for an entire season, they would win about 98 games...

[illinoisredsox]

It's actually not a concern.

 

They're not going to win more than 60% of their games this year, so winning 50% (or lower) for a large stretch is expected at some point.

 

If they were 13-9 instead would you be worried? If a team plays at a 13-9 clip for an entire season, they would win about 98 games...

 

Exactly. Somebody posted it over the past couple days but it bears repeating:

 

2004, Sox went 16-14 in May, 11-14 in June and 14-12 in July (41-40 for 3 months and half a season)

2007, Sox went 13-14 in June, 15-12 in July and 16-13 in August (44-39 for 3 months and half a season, they also went 16-11 in September)

 

As I recall, those years both ended pretty nicely.

[a700hitter]

If you play .500 during your slumps, the season should be pretty sweet.

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly, when you suck and are .500 during your sucky spells, then you're gonna be ok. I know a lot of exposure is on the pen, but I think the sox biggest area of worry has to be pitcher. Yes, the C spot sucks and JBJ has been awful, but carrying one bad apple offensively works and Moreland allows the flexibility to turn JBJ into a part timer. The pen has had its issues, but for this year you have a 1-2 punch in Kelly-Kimbrel that has been dominant and guys coming around them that could solidify a good bridge as long as health allows. The major concern has to be the rotation.

 

1. Sale is Sale. Velocity is down from last year but the same as it was in his final CWS season. He is still dominant and should continue to be a lock down ace

2. Porcello has had a few blips on the radar, but for the most part has been able to keep the ball down and hence out of the bleachers. He is settling in as a solid #2.

3. Price has been bad and unreliable. His velocity is way down and he isn't finishing guys off. His velo is even lower than his lackluster 2016 in Boston. If he doesn't reclaim his stuff, he will be a middling pitcher akin to Porcello from a year ago

4. Drew Pomeranz has been hurt, terrible and a pen killer. His velocity is down 3mph from last year after another "forearm strain". I doubt he lasts the season in Boston. My assumption is he is either phantom DL'd or sent to the OR for TJS

5. E-Rod is E-Rod. Tantalizing stuff. Dominant at times. Enigmatic at others. He has the stuff to be an ace, but the approach of a rookie even though he's been in the bigs for awhile now. He is the one guy who could help stabilize your rotation

[notin]

Exactly. Somebody posted it over the past couple days but it bears repeating:

 

2004, Sox went 16-14 in May, 11-14 in June and 14-12 in July (41-40 for 3 months and half a season)

2007, Sox went 13-14 in June, 15-12 in July and 16-13 in August (44-39 for 3 months and half a season, they also went 16-11 in September)

 

As I recall, those years both ended pretty nicely.

 

After a 17-2 start, if the Sox went 76-67 the rest of the way, they would still win 93 games and make the post-season....

[jacksonianmarch]

Agree on all, especially the pitching. I had my doubts, but regained confidence after the first two losses in Yankee Stadium. ERod was way better than I expected, and it wasn't luck. Porcello was awful for him, but the lineup got us that 6-5 lead going into the 8th when the wheels came off the bullpen. Losses are never good, but some are definitely better than others.

 

Now I still get stuff to gripe about (Pom yesterday), but do see what you and others like cp176 see. Toronto ain't half bad and the Sox darn near swept them.

 

Now it's the A's at our place against Porcello, ERod, and Sale: time to rectify losing 2 of 3 in Oakland 3 or so weeks ago.

 

ERod owns us. He always has.

[dgalehouse]

A realistic appraisal shows that , with 75% of the season still to play , the Sox and Yankees will remain locked in a battle for the AL East , with the loser getting the first wild card. The only other competition would seem to be for the second wild card. Does not say much for competitive balance. Too many really weak teams.