A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Slasher9]

I guess it's just fun to talk about the lineup/hitting when it's the second best in MLB this year.

 

Not so much fun to talk about the rotation which now has Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and Pom healthy with Velazquez and now Wright backing up--and they keep getting worse, not better. True, Price was terrific Thursday night, but Pom stunk again last night, Sale barely did 5 innings Wed, and ERod and Porcello stunk the two games before that. Isn't that four out of five non-quality starts?

 

But here we are focusing on how to fix the bottom third of the order or whether Hanley Ramirez should be dropped down or, my personal favorite, is the notion of keeping JBJ in centerfield because his fielding brilliance will fix our pitching woes. Yes, I know that last is an exaggeration, but not a big one.

If it’s all about the “pitching woes” why do you care if a non hitting defensive CFer is playing or not???

Red Sox when JBj is starting: 23-11

When benched: 7-4

[oldtimer]

If it’s all about the “pitching woes” why do you care if a non hitting defensive CFer is playing or not???

Red Sox when JBj is starting: 23-11

When benched: 7-4

 

If we only had 9 JBJ's in the lineup and a very high quality pitching staff we will win a lot more?

[Maxbialystock]

If it’s all about the “pitching woes” why do you care if a non hitting defensive CFer is playing or not???

Red Sox when JBj is starting: 23-11

When benched: 7-4

 

Because I think Cora is doing all he can to solve the pitching woes--and a manager can only do so much.

 

Replacing JBJ with Moreland at 1B and Beni moving to CF--given that Moreland's OPS is currently double JBJ's and the latter's WAR is -.4--is a no-brainer. It won't fix the pitching, but can help the hitting, especially when JBJ is one of three weak hitters at the bottom of the order. If he were the only weak hitter, keeping him in CF might make sense.

 

Non hitting defensive CF gives JBJ too much credit. Last night he struck out twice on six 92 mph fastballs right down the middle. He couldn't even foul one off. Cobb actually has a pretty decent repertoire, but his catcher correctly decided it was wasted on JBJ, who right now is hitting like a pitcher.

[mvp 78]

Quite a few at this point in the season. And hitting .160 in mid-May isn't the end to the season.

 

In 1997, Jon Valentin hit .160 in April but ended the season hitting .306, the only time he hit .300 with enough at-bats to qualify...

It’s closer to June than April now.

[notin]

It’s closer to June than April now.

 

We're a few days closer to June 1 than April 30.

 

I don't expect Bradley to hit .300 this year, but no one expected Valentin to turn around his season so effectively either...

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Under the Mendoza line in mid-May, though. If anything, the numbers suggest a guy like Vazquez will go on a bit of a hot streak and end the season hitting .240 or so.

 

That's the way I'm sure team management is looking at it.

 

Fans tend to just look at the current BA and freak out about it.

 

But I'm not freaking out at a BA in May. We are discussing a 6th year player with a career BA of .234. Inside those numbers as we all know are hot streaks sandwiched around incredibly long stretches where he killed rallies and severly crippled the team by contributing virtually nothing offensively.

 

I realized he sat several games but can someone point out the defensive play he made in his last 7 games that no other ML CF will ever make?

Edited May 19, 2018 by Yaz Fan Since '67

[Spudboy]

Fair point.

 

Interesting to note that JD's UZR/150 in left field is now -16 and in right field it is now -41.6. Jackie's UZR/150 in center is 6.8. This is a lot different than they looked about a month ago. The only point I'm trying to make here is how quickly the numbers can change when you're dealing with small samples.

 

This is all well and good. But how badly has JD in a corner spot hurt the Sox and how many runs has he given up? How many loses can be attributed to him? I know he is not a premium defensive player. That is obvious. I just don't see his play as a driver of mad things to this team. He gets the job done.

 

And, I have yet to see or hear legit stats that show that he is a worse option than JBJ all factors of performance considered.

 

I do love me some JBJ. But I want JD out there with Hanley and Moreland sharing DH and 1st.

[Kimmi]

How many teams have 2 regulars in their lineup hitting below the Mendoza Line? You don't have to be a threat to be an upgrade over a guy hitting .164

 

Neither JBJ or the Vazquez/Leon tandem are typically that bad offensively though. They have been somewhat victimized by bad luck. You have to think that all 3 players will turn it around offensively and hit somewhere near their career norms.

[Spudboy]

Well, the trick is to determine whether the upgrade in offense outweighs the downgrade in defense, or vice versa. While I personally prefer a stronger defensive alignment, I do acknowledge that if the added offense outweighs the weakened defense, then that's the alignment the team should go with.

 

That said, I think many people underestimate the number of runs that a great defensive player can save over a mediocre or poor defensive player. Oftentimes, the runs saved are very subtle.

 

Wish I had seen this prior to my previous post.

 

I agree with what you say, by the way.

 

Ideally JBJ somehow busts out of his massive slide and starts to hit above .250 for the remainder of the season. That would shut me up.

[cp176]

This is all well and good. But how badly has JD in a corner spot hurt the Sox and how many runs has he given up? How many loses can be attributed to him? I know he is not a premium defensive player. That is obvious. I just don't see his play as a driver of mad things to this team. He gets the job done.

 

And, I have yet to see or hear legit stats that show that he is a worse option than JBJ all factors of performance considered.

 

I do love me some JBJ. But I want JD out there with Hanley and Moreland sharing DH and 1st.

 

Makes sense to me. I don't want to see JD out there everyday but his fielding ability has not hurt this team at all. Having him in left and moving Beni to center has not cost this team any wins. It would be great to have JBJ in cf for sure but at this point sadly he looks like the hitter his stats say he is.

[mvp 78]

Neither JBJ or the Vazquez/Leon tandem are typically that bad offensively though. They have been somewhat victimized by bad luck. You have to think that all 3 players will turn it around offensively and hit somewhere near their career norms.

Maybe bad luck with the catchers. JBJ is just looking hapless at the plate.

[Spudboy]

It’s closer to June than April now.

 

Yeah and Valintin was a different breed of hitter.

[Kimmi]

This is all well and good. But how badly has JD in a corner spot hurt the Sox and how many runs has he given up? How many loses can be attributed to him? I know he is not a premium defensive player. That is obvious. I just don't see his play as a driver of mad things to this team. He gets the job done.

 

And, I have yet to see or hear legit stats that show that he is a worse option than JBJ all factors of performance considered.

 

I do love me some JBJ. But I want JD out there with Hanley and Moreland sharing DH and 1st.

 

I really don't disagree with most of what you have posted here. I have stated before that the team has to go with the best overall alignment, factoring in both offense and defense. I do prefer seeing Moreland in the line up over JBJ, I can't argue about that.

 

To date, JD has not been a great liability in the outfield. That said, if he continues at his current pace, he would end up costing the team roughly 2 games defensively over 150 games. JBJ will end up saving us roughly one game defensively. That's a 3 game swing, which is not insignificant. I do caution that we are still dealing with a very small sample size and that JD will not play 150 games in the OF.

[cp176]

We are what 37 games in and our career .234 lifetime hitter is not hitting .165. We all appreciate what he can give us defensively but if he does not snap out of this soon playing him regularly out there will just look foolish. Hands are tied I guess just a bit. Hope he starts to get it done. The truth of the matter is that he absolutely looks lost at the plate. I don't see him turning it around - I really hope that I am wrong.

[Kimmi]

Maybe bad luck with the catchers. JBJ is just looking hapless at the plate.

 

He does look pretty bad at that plate. But he is also the victim of a .214 BABIP.

 

Either way, we know he is not a .164 hitter.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I really don't disagree with most of what you have posted here. I have stated before that the team has to go with the best overall alignment, factoring in both offense and defense. I do prefer seeing Moreland in the line up over JBJ, I can't argue about that.

 

To date, JD has not been a great liability in the outfield. That said, if he continues at his current pace, he would end up costing the team roughly 2 games defensively over 150 games. JBJ will end up saving us roughly one game defensively. That's a 3 game swing, which is not insignificant. I do caution that we are still dealing with a very small sample size and that JD will not play 150 games in the OF.

 

How many games will JBJ cost us with his bat? I am thinking it may be a few already.

[Spudboy]

He does look pretty bad at that plate. But he is also the victim of a .214 BABIP.

 

Either way, we know he is not a .164 hitter.

 

Isn't his low BABIP a product of weak contact?

[Kimmi]

How many games will JBJ cost us with his bat? I am thinking it may be a few already.

 

I do not disagree with you.

[Station 13]

Isn't his low BABIP a product of weak contact?

 

"No it's bad luck!"

[Kimmi]

Isn't his low BABIP a product of weak contact?

 

Some of it might be, but he's still being victimized by some bad luck. His line drive % is about on par with his career norm. His soft contact % is actually slightly lower, but so is his hard contact %. His medium contact % is higher.

 

I have seen Jackie hit some weak pop ups, but I've also seen him smoke the ball right at a defender.

[Kimmi]

"No it's bad luck!"

 

:(

[Station 13]

:(

 

[oldtimer]

Who would have thought 2 weeks ago that Beni would have a higher batting average than Hanley?

[Larry Cook]

Who would have thought 2 weeks ago that Beni would have a higher batting average than Hanley?

 

Benintendi is handling the secondary offering much better than a month ago. He seems to have figured out how they are pitching him.

[Kimmi]

Who would have thought 2 weeks ago that Beni would have a higher batting average than Hanley?

 

Speaking of Hanley, if he doesn't start improving soon, it may be time to start giving some of his ABs to Moreland. I am one of Hanley's biggest supporters, but Moreland is currently outplaying him in every aspect of the game. If Hanley is not producing, he should not be given the PAs to allow the option to vest, when we have a better alternative sitting on the bench.

[illinoisredsox]

If it’s all about the “pitching woes” why do you care if a non hitting defensive CFer is playing or not???

Red Sox when JBj is starting: 23-11

When benched: 7-4

 

Which really isn't all that different percentage wise. 7-4 extrapolates to 21-12.

[oldtimer]

Speaking of Hanley, if he doesn't start improving soon, it may be time to start giving some of his ABs to Moreland. I am one of Hanley's biggest supporters, but Moreland is currently outplaying him in every aspect of the game. If Hanley is not producing, he should not be given the PAs to allow the option to vest, when we have a better alternative sitting on the bench.

 

On the surface, it looks like the right approach but I am unsure that Moreland may have some physical issues. I hope Cora is handling this rationally but in other areas he seems fine, so I continue to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[moonslav59]

i think we should play Moreland nearly full time and split HRam and JBJ's time(0-50

[kenmeister]

i think we should play Moreland nearly full time and split HRam and JBJ's time(0-50

 

Moreland full time, split Holt and Ramirez, and release JBJ.

[moonslav59]

Moreland full time, split Holt and Ramirez, and release JBJ.

 

I'd release Holt before I'd trade JBJ. However, since both have options, I'd do neither.