A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Nick]

Better to Know than Not to Know....

 

I really hope we get to see some of our organizational depth in September....I'm all for turning over every rock and seeing what's under it. Not all at once of course. Spread it out.

[vegasbob]

We could also trade Hembree and try to build up our farm a bit.

 

Hembree is out of options and we can easily replace him, in kind, from within the system.

 

Thornburg could also be a DL or waiver trade candidate at this point. Hembree certainly is , now that he has become a ROOGY. Telling Velazquez to cool his heels in Pawtucket for 2.5 weeks is most likely unless DD is actively talking to other teams dangling pitchers . The Dodgers just blew 3 games in a row to the Rockies in the 9th with Jansen went on the DL with arrythmia.

[Nick]

Brasier has been most consistent (without looking at any stats) in the pen.

[kenmeister]

Thornburg could also be a DL or waiver trade candidate at this point. Hembree certainly is , now that he has become a ROOGY. Telling Velazquez to cool his heels in Pawtucket for 2.5 weeks is most likely unless DD is actively talking to other teams dangling pitchers . The Dodgers just blew 3 games in a row to the Rockies in the 9th with Jansen went on the DL with arrythmia.

 

I certainly wouldn't mind if they got rid of Hembree and kept Workman up for good.

[notin]

I certainly wouldn't mind if they got rid of Hembree and kept Workman up for good.

 

Hembree had such a good run there for a while. It looked like it might be his breakout year...

[moonslav59]

Hembree had such a good run there for a while. It looked like it might be his breakout year...

 

I've had high hopes for Hembree, but the guy just cannot be consistent enough to strain to keep him on the 25 man roster.

 

He's out of options, and we have several players who are or could be as good as him.

[notin]

I've had high hopes for Hembree, but the guy just cannot be consistent enough to strain to keep him on the 25 man roster.

 

He's out of options, and we have several players who are or could be as good as him.

 

I had no real hopes for him, but worst case is that he is what he is - a fifth or sixth arm in a good bullpen. Sure the Sox could find better relievers, but it probably won’t be as easy as you indicate...

[moonslav59]

I had no real hopes for him, but worst case is that he is what he is - a fifth or sixth arm in a good bullpen. Sure the Sox could find better relievers, but it probably won’t be as easy as you indicate...

 

I like Workman better and think he'd be here, if not for the option imbalance.

 

I'd even prefer Pom, but he's a FA after this year, so keeping Hembree over him makes some sense.

 

Based on skill level alone, as of right now, I might rank our pen as such:

 

1. Kimbrel

2. Barnes

3. Kelly

4. Brasier

5. Thornburg

6. Velazquez

7. Pomeranz

8. Johnson (when ERod returns)

9. Hembree

9A. Scott

9B. Poyner

9C. Walden

9D. Cuevas

9E. Haley

15. Shepherd

 

Assuming our starting 5 is Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod and Eovaldi.

 

Hembree is nice to have around, but he is expendable.

 

I would not just give him away. I'd try to bolster our farm a bit with the trade. Lord knows it needs it.

(I'd put Wright above Hembree when healthy.)

 

 

 

 

[MADSTORK]

Hembree had such a good run there for a while. It looked like it might be his breakout year...

 

LOL

Define “good run” ?

 

It only counts in October and if your relying on a guy from the Japanese leagues in Brasier to bail u out, I’ll just quote Mayfield vs McGregor, “good luck with that”!

[User Name]

Is the banhammer broken or something?

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS over the last 28 days:

 

1.214JD

1.003 Pearce

.997 Betts

.955 Kinsler (11 PAs)

.906 Swihart (26 PAs)

.897 JBJ

.857 Beni

.807 Devers

.771 Nunez

.722 Bogey

 

.567 Moreland

.534 Holt

 

.393 Leon

 

JBJ, Betts, Pearce & JD are all over .971 the last 14 days.

 

Funny how our catcher offense seemed to be a big issue weeks and months ago, but with Leon at .393 the last 4 weeks, not a peep. Maybe, poster are seeing the value of a catcher cannot be captured in offensive stats.

[FredLynn]

Sox OPS over the last 28 days:

 

1.214JD

1.003 Pearce

.997 Betts

.955 Kinsler (11 PAs)

.906 Swihart (26 PAs)

.897 JBJ

.857 Beni

.807 Devers

.771 Nunez

.722 Bogey

 

.567 Moreland

.534 Holt

 

.393 Leon

 

JBJ, Betts, Pearce & JD are all over .971 the last 14 days.

 

Funny how our catcher offense seemed to be a big issue weeks and months ago, but with Leon at .393 the last 4 weeks, not a peep. Maybe, poster are seeing the value of a catcher cannot be captured in offensive stats.

 

If the other guys were not producing then the catcher OPS would be an issue. We can afford one black hole in the lineup, maybe even two. Everyone else is making up for what Leon is not doing with the bat.

[Kimmi]

If the other guys were not producing then the catcher OPS would be an issue. We can afford one black hole in the lineup, maybe even two. Everyone else is making up for what Leon is not doing with the bat.

 

Catcher offense, like JBJ's offense, is never an issue with me as long as the rest of the guys are doing their jobs. I think we've all seen how valuable Sandy and Jackie have been to the team defensively. Any offense they provide is gravy.

 

This is why I always liked Varitek behind the plate, even when he was no longer hitting.

[moonslav59]

If the other guys were not producing then the catcher OPS would be an issue. We can afford one black hole in the lineup, maybe even two. Everyone else is making up for what Leon is not doing with the bat.

 

It shouldn't matter. Catcher OPS is about #6 on the top 10 areas of catcher importance.

[OH FOY]

Sorry don't compare Catchers and CF's positions. A Catcher is involved every play, one way or the other. Unless 27 Outs are hit to CF, then OK then. You need some Offense, in the CF position.

Mentally between the 2 Positions, Catcher has to be focused always. It's draining, to play like this. Which probably effects their Offense.

Edited August 14, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Sorry don't compare Catchers and CF's positions. A Catcher is involved every play, one way or the other. Unless 27 Outs are hit to CF, then OK then. You need some Offense, in the CF position.

Mentally between the 2 Positions, Catcher has to be focused always. It's draining, to play like this.

 

The CF'ers (and RF'ers) in Fenway are more important than most in most other parks.

 

Yes, they aren't involved in as many plays as the catcher and other positions, but a great defensive CF'er can take away a lot of hits and runs- probably enough to make up for not-so-great offense.

[mvp 78]

Is the banhammer broken or something?

 

It went missing a long time ago.

[Bellhorn04]

Sorry don't compare Catchers and CF's positions. A Catcher is involved every play, one way or the other. Unless 27 Outs are hit to CF, then OK then. You need some Offense, in the CF position.

Mentally between the 2 Positions, Catcher has to be focused always. It's draining, to play like this. Which probably effects their Offense.

 

Plus Sandy has been playing so much more than he's used to.

[OH FOY]

The CF'ers (and RF'ers) in Fenway are more important than most in most other parks.

 

Yes, they aren't involved in as many plays as the catcher and other positions, but a great defensive CF'er can take away a lot of hits and runs- probably enough to make up for not-so-great offense.

 

Makes me wonder why Yaz wasn't a Centerfielder in Fenway.

[notin]

Makes me wonder why Yaz wasn't a Centerfielder in Fenway.

 

Yaz did play 165 games in CF in his career. The most recent was 2 games in 1982 at age 42.

 

But that is certainly a very small chunk of games in a very long career...

[moonslav59]

Team OPS Against in certain situations:

 

.618 High leverage

.708 Med leverage

.678 Low leverage

 

High Leverage

.205 Workman (Just 15 PAs0

.311 Brasier (just 10 PAs)

.418 Sale

.514 Velazquez

.540 Barnes

.546 Kimbrel

.546 Kelly

.583 Eovaldi (12 PAs)

.588 ERod

.629 Hembree

.667 Scott

.676 Price

.701 Wright

.714 Pom

.860 Smith (19)

.909 Poyner (12)

1.083 Johnson

1.250 Beeks

 

Team: .663 Late & Close

.200 Thornburg (10 PAs)

.400 ERod & Cuevas (5 PAs each)

.528 Brasier (18)

.545 Sale

.585 Kimbrel

.619 Workman

.625 Kelly

.655 Barnes

.667 Scott

.675 Wright

.690 Hembree

.711 Price

.714 Porcello

.800 Poyner (16)

.822 Velazquez (16)

1.178 Johnson (18)

1.263 Smith

 

 

 

[greenwell]

Team OPS Against in certain situations:

 

.618 High leverage

.708 Med leverage

.678 Low leverage

 

High Leverage

.205 Workman (Just 15 PAs0

.311 Brasier (just 10 PAs)

.418 Sale

.514 Velazquez

.540 Barnes

.546 Kimbrel

.546 Kelly

.583 Eovaldi (12 PAs)

.588 ERod

.629 Hembree

.667 Scott

.676 Price

.701 Wright

.714 Pom

.860 Smith (19)

.909 Poyner (12)

1.083 Johnson

1.250 Beeks

 

Team: .663 Late & Close

.200 Thornburg (10 PAs)

.400 ERod & Cuevas (5 PAs each)

.528 Brasier (18)

.545 Sale

.585 Kimbrel

.619 Workman

.625 Kelly

.655 Barnes

.667 Scott

.675 Wright

.690 Hembree

.711 Price

.714 Porcello

.800 Poyner (16)

.822 Velazquez (16)

1.178 Johnson (18)

1.263 Smith

 

 

 

 

 

The main thing this tells me is BJ should not be in the bullpen for the playoffs

[moonslav59]

The main thing this tells me is BJ should not be in the bullpen for the playoffs

 

It tells me that over the full season, despite recent struggles, Barnes and Kelly are alright, Workman and Brasier should get more looks, and Johnson should not go more than 5 IP.

[Kimmi]

Sorry don't compare Catchers and CF's positions. A Catcher is involved every play, one way or the other. Unless 27 Outs are hit to CF, then OK then. You need some Offense, in the CF position.

Mentally between the 2 Positions, Catcher has to be focused always. It's draining, to play like this. Which probably effects their Offense.

 

Catching is definitely more grueling than CF. My only point in comparing the two positions is that I prefer strong defense from those positions over strong offense.

[Kimmi]

Plus Sandy has been playing so much more than he's used to.

 

Sandy received some very strong praise from Porcello last night.

[moonslav59]

Sandy received some very strong praise from Porcello last night.

 

This is where data and stats do not do justice to determining a catcher's value. Of course, players rarely criticize teammates, but it is the lack of praise you hear when Swihart catches someone that speaks volumes about Leon & to some extent, Vaz. Then, we constantly hear pitchers heap praise on Leon and sometimes, Vaz.

 

It's no coincidence that our pen, which did not look all that good on paper to start the year, is a top 5 to 8 pen for 2 years in a row by almost any reasonable measure.

 

There's a reason our rotation that appeared to lack depth has done great with our 6-10th starters- not to mention our 1-5 starters, except Pom (injury?).

 

Team record in starts by...

 

16-3 ERod

17-6 Price

17-8 Porcello

15-8 Sale

5-6 Pom (22-10 last year)

 

4-0 Velazquez

3-0 Eovaldi

6-2 Johnson

3-1 Wright

0-1 Beeks

 

We are an amazing 16-4 with our #6-10 starters!

 

That's a better winning percentage than any of our starting 5, except ERod. To me, Leon & Vaz have a lot to do with the success of our staff. I could care less about their offense. Even if our offense was weak, I would not think twice about Leon's OPS/

[kenmeister]

Sandy received some very strong praise from Porcello last night.

 

It didn't escape my notice that Eovaldi fell to pieces when not throwing to Leon.

[mvp 78]

It didn't escape my notice that Eovaldi fell to pieces when not throwing to Leon.

 

Just falling to pieces at times is what Eovaldi does.

[moonslav59]

Best winning % in MLB history....

 

.763 Cubs 1906

.741 Pirates 1902

.726 White Stockings 1886

.724 Pirates 1909

.721 Guardians 1954 (111-43) 154 game schedule

.716 Mariners 2001 (116-46) 162 game schedule

.714 Yankess 1927 (110-44)

.711 Red Sox 2018 (Currently 86-35: on pace for 115 wins)

Edited August 15, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

SP'er ERA in the last 28 days...

 

0.00 Sale (3 GS)

1.03 Price (4)

2.04 Eovaldi (3)

3.42 Johnson (4)

3.69 Porcello (5)

4.15 Pom (3- plus 2 RP'er games)