A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[mvp 78]

I think LoMo has played a little corner OF as well.

 

250 games is more than "a little" but yeah.

[Bellhorn04]

We coulda had JD & LoMo!

 

Maybe...we don't know what the hell's going on...it's bizarro world.

 

LoMo was projected to get 3/36 by MLBTR.

[mvp 78]

For Kimmi:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/02/lets-be-optimistic-on-the-offense/

 

Even so, age gives us an overall positive picture of how the 2018 Red Sox offense could look. Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and perhaps Bradley could all improve, and I think that’s actually relatively likely to happen just based on how their 2017 seasons went as well. That should be more than enough to offset what little production Boston receives from Pedroia, Moreland, and Ramirez...

 

FanGraphs projects seven of the Red Sox to improve, five of which significantly. Only Pedroia and Mitch Moreland are projected to improve only slightly from their 2017 performances. Rafael Devers is projected to perform just as he did last season, only to play a full season’s worth of games, which would be a large upgrade over what the Red Sox have been getting from third basemen over the past half decade or more. Only Christian Vazquez is projected to put up a worse performance...

 

Looking at all this, it seems safe to assume a good chunk of the Red Sox starting lineup should be expected, for a variety of reasons, to put up better seasons than they did in 2017. In fact, it’s not just a numerical chunk of the lineup, but the very best players in it, like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Bradley. Devers is a bit of a wild card given his youth, as are Ramirez and Moreland for their ages, and Pedroia for his age and injury history. It’s not hard to see Ramirez turning things around, Pedroia getting healthy and hitting better if not returning to his late-aught MVP form. Similarly, this could be the end of the line for these guys. Sometimes baseball doesn’t let you down gently. Sometimes it smashes you into the concrete. But the smart guess is that both Ramirez and Pedroia have something approximating league average hitting left in them.

 

Add that to a stronger front of the lineup featuring everyone with a surnamed starting with B, and you’ve got a potentially strong lineup. So, do the Red Sox need J.D. Martinez to improve their offense in 2018? I suspect they don’t. I suspect it will get better simply by running the same team out there again.

[Nick]

Sign Nunez and let him DH also. Limit Hanley's at bats.

 

If we get rid of Hanley's contract for 2019 (ie vesting option), Moreland essentially costed Sox nothing.

[moonslav59]

250 games is more than "a little" but yeah.

 

More than I knew and more than Moeland's 47.

[Nick]

For Kimmi:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/02/lets-be-optimistic-on-the-offense/

 

Even so, age gives us an overall positive picture of how the 2018 Red Sox offense could look. Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and perhaps Bradley could all improve, and I think that’s actually relatively likely to happen just based on how their 2017 seasons went as well. That should be more than enough to offset what little production Boston receives from Pedroia, Moreland, and Ramirez...

 

FanGraphs projects seven of the Red Sox to improve, five of which significantly. Only Pedroia and Mitch Moreland are projected to improve only slightly from their 2017 performances. Rafael Devers is projected to perform just as he did last season, only to play a full season’s worth of games, which would be a large upgrade over what the Red Sox have been getting from third basemen over the past half decade or more. Only Christian Vazquez is projected to put up a worse performance...

 

Looking at all this, it seems safe to assume a good chunk of the Red Sox starting lineup should be expected, for a variety of reasons, to put up better seasons than they did in 2017. In fact, it’s not just a numerical chunk of the lineup, but the very best players in it, like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Bradley. Devers is a bit of a wild card given his youth, as are Ramirez and Moreland for their ages, and Pedroia for his age and injury history. It’s not hard to see Ramirez turning things around, Pedroia getting healthy and hitting better if not returning to his late-aught MVP form. Similarly, this could be the end of the line for these guys. Sometimes baseball doesn’t let you down gently. Sometimes it smashes you into the concrete. But the smart guess is that both Ramirez and Pedroia have something approximating league average hitting left in them.

 

Add that to a stronger front of the lineup featuring everyone with a surnamed starting with B, and you’ve got a potentially strong lineup. So, do the Red Sox need J.D. Martinez to improve their offense in 2018? I suspect they don’t. I suspect it will get better simply by running the same team out there again.

 

It would certainly help if another young bat emerges during 2018 for second half call up. Hey call me crazy. Beni, Devers, who's next? I'd love to see one starter added every year. That means turnover every nine years. That's not really expecting a lot.

[S5Dewey]

Projections for Hanley are meaningless, don't you think? Most of our chat about Hanley has been about making sure that GD option doesn't vest.

 

 

And all of that chatter is based on the assumption that Hanley doesn't produce. I'd rather see him have a career year (but I'd settle for a solid one of .800+) and have the option vest than have him stink up the place and sit on the bench.

[mvp 78]

And all of that chatter is based on the assumption that Hanley doesn't produce. I'd rather see him have a career year (but I'd settle for a solid one of .800+) and have the option vest than have him stink up the place and sit on the bench.

 

Crazy.

[Bellhorn04]

For Kimmi:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/02/lets-be-optimistic-on-the-offense/

 

Even so, age gives us an overall positive picture of how the 2018 Red Sox offense could look. Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and perhaps Bradley could all improve, and I think that’s actually relatively likely to happen just based on how their 2017 seasons went as well. That should be more than enough to offset what little production Boston receives from Pedroia, Moreland, and Ramirez...

 

FanGraphs projects seven of the Red Sox to improve, five of which significantly. Only Pedroia and Mitch Moreland are projected to improve only slightly from their 2017 performances. Rafael Devers is projected to perform just as he did last season, only to play a full season’s worth of games, which would be a large upgrade over what the Red Sox have been getting from third basemen over the past half decade or more. Only Christian Vazquez is projected to put up a worse performance...

 

Looking at all this, it seems safe to assume a good chunk of the Red Sox starting lineup should be expected, for a variety of reasons, to put up better seasons than they did in 2017. In fact, it’s not just a numerical chunk of the lineup, but the very best players in it, like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Bradley. Devers is a bit of a wild card given his youth, as are Ramirez and Moreland for their ages, and Pedroia for his age and injury history. It’s not hard to see Ramirez turning things around, Pedroia getting healthy and hitting better if not returning to his late-aught MVP form. Similarly, this could be the end of the line for these guys. Sometimes baseball doesn’t let you down gently. Sometimes it smashes you into the concrete. But the smart guess is that both Ramirez and Pedroia have something approximating league average hitting left in them.

 

Add that to a stronger front of the lineup featuring everyone with a surnamed starting with B, and you’ve got a potentially strong lineup. So, do the Red Sox need J.D. Martinez to improve their offense in 2018? I suspect they don’t. I suspect it will get better simply by running the same team out there again.

 

Yay projections!

 

And what happens if Bogey gets another apparently minor injury early in the season that screws him for the whole season again? Etc. etc.

 

I don't mean to be a pessimist, but sometimes too much optimism is not a good thing.

[mvp 78]

Yay projections!

 

And what happens if Bogey gets another apparently minor injury early in the season that screws him for the whole season again? Etc. etc.

 

I don't mean to be a pessimist, but sometimes too much optimism is not a good thing.

 

Hope springs eternal except in NE Canada.

[harmony]

Yay projections!

 

And what happens if Bogey gets another apparently minor injury early in the season that screws him for the whole season again? Etc. etc.

 

I don't mean to be a pessimist, but sometimes too much optimism is not a good thing.

Last year the Red Sox were projected to regress in a negative direction from their robust 2016 production while this year the Sox are projected to regress in a positive direction from their disappointing 2017 production.

[oldtimer]

For Kimmi:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/02/lets-be-optimistic-on-the-offense/

 

Even so, age gives us an overall positive picture of how the 2018 Red Sox offense could look. Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and perhaps Bradley could all improve, and I think that’s actually relatively likely to happen just based on how their 2017 seasons went as well. That should be more than enough to offset what little production Boston receives from Pedroia, Moreland, and Ramirez...

 

FanGraphs projects seven of the Red Sox to improve, five of which significantly. Only Pedroia and Mitch Moreland are projected to improve only slightly from their 2017 performances. Rafael Devers is projected to perform just as he did last season, only to play a full season’s worth of games, which would be a large upgrade over what the Red Sox have been getting from third basemen over the past half decade or more. Only Christian Vazquez is projected to put up a worse performance...

 

Looking at all this, it seems safe to assume a good chunk of the Red Sox starting lineup should be expected, for a variety of reasons, to put up better seasons than they did in 2017. In fact, it’s not just a numerical chunk of the lineup, but the very best players in it, like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Bradley. Devers is a bit of a wild card given his youth, as are Ramirez and Moreland for their ages, and Pedroia for his age and injury history. It’s not hard to see Ramirez turning things around, Pedroia getting healthy and hitting better if not returning to his late-aught MVP form. Similarly, this could be the end of the line for these guys. Sometimes baseball doesn’t let you down gently. Sometimes it smashes you into the concrete. But the smart guess is that both Ramirez and Pedroia have something approximating league average hitting left in them.

 

Add that to a stronger front of the lineup featuring everyone with a surnamed starting with B, and you’ve got a potentially strong lineup. So, do the Red Sox need J.D. Martinez to improve their offense in 2018? I suspect they don’t. I suspect it will get better simply by running the same team out there again.

 

Ah, ever the optimist.

[moonslav59]

Ah, ever the optimist.

 

It didn't make sense to me, that so many players below prime all (but Vaz) stepped back last year. Add to that the fact that everyone else in prime or nearing post prime declined as well- all at the same time.

 

It makes sense, we'll see an overall improvement this year, even without adding anyone. We lost Young & Nunez, and we'll gain a full year of Devers.

 

I'd like to see JD here this year, but if we sign LoMo (or Duda) and Nunez instead, I'd be okay.

[harmony]

It didn't make sense to me, that so many players below prime all (but Vaz) stepped back last year. Add to that the fact that everyone else in prime or nearing post prime declined as well- all at the same time.

 

It makes sense, we'll see an overall improvement this year, even without adding anyone. We lost Young & Nunez, and we'll gain a full year of Devers.

 

I'd like to see JD here this year, but if we sign LoMo (or Duda) and Nunez instead, I'd be okay.

https://www.isportsweb.com/2018/02/05/boston-needs-just-j-d-martinez-help-offense/

 

http://www.trifectanetworksports.com/boston-red-sox-truck-day-ready/

 

https://mainecampus.com/2018/02/why-the-red-sox-should-stay-put/

[Bellhorn04]

Hope springs eternal except in NE Canada.

 

I'd be feeling more hopeful if JDM was signed.

 

He's still on your wish list too, according to your signature.

 

I think the idea that we're going to be just fine if we stand pat is a bit silly.

 

The Yankees added some guy named Stanton and they were already 7 games better than us last year based on run differential.

[mvp 78]

https://www.isportsweb.com/2018/02/05/boston-needs-just-j-d-martinez-help-offense/

 

http://www.trifectanetworksports.com/boston-red-sox-truck-day-ready/

 

https://mainecampus.com/2018/02/why-the-red-sox-should-stay-put/

 

Reynolds > Duda > Frazier > Moustakas

 

If they can get Moose for only 2 years tho... Then I'd just grab Moose and trade Hanley by eating 90% of his current deal.

[mvp 78]

I'd be feeling more hopeful if JDM was signed.

 

He's still on your wish list too, according to your signature.

 

I think the idea that we're going to be just fine if we stand pat is a bit silly.

 

The Yankees added some guy named Stanton and they were already 7 games better than us last year based on run differential.

 

I'd certainly rather they just sign JD and wrap it up.

[moonslav59]

Reynolds > Duda > Frazier > Moustakas

 

If they can get Moose for only 2 years tho... Then I'd just grab Moose and trade Hanley by eating 90% of his current deal.

 

You mean...

 

Moose> Frazier> Duda> Reynolds

[mvp 78]

You mean...

 

Moose> Frazier> Duda> Reynolds

 

No no no. Reynolds has great power and has played in the AL East before. He'd be cheap and on a 1 year deal. Duda is fine, but nothing special. Frazier is a slightly worse Duda. Moose is a better player than the other guys, but I worry he's going to hold out for a longer term deal.

[moonslav59]

No no no. Reynolds has great power and has played in the AL East before. He'd be cheap and on a 1 year deal. Duda is fine, but nothing special. Frazier is a slightly worse Duda. Moose is a better player than the other guys, but I worry he's going to hold out for a longer term deal.

 

The best player per dollar and years might be Duda.

[mvp 78]

The best player per dollar and years might be Duda.

 

Reynolds is definitely not the best player, but he only got $2M last year on a 1 year deal. He's projected to have a .793 OPS. He can play every day if need be.

 

Duda who is only 2 years younger is projected to have an .828 OPS. He was projected to sign a 1 year $6M deal. He is a platoon guy. Career .658 OPS against LHP.

[moonslav59]

Reynolds is definitely not the best player, but he only got $2M last year on a 1 year deal. He's projected to have a .793 OPS. He can play every day if need be.

 

Duda who is only 2 years younger is projected to have an .828 OPS. He was projected to sign a 1 year $6M deal. He is a platoon guy. Career .658 OPS against LHP.

 

Platooning Duda with HRam makes a lot of sense.

 

He could also PH late in games where a lefty started but was replaced by a righty.

[Larry Cook]

Platooning Duda with HRam makes a lot of sense.

 

He could also PH late in games where a lefty started but was replaced by a righty.

 

This makes perfect sense. Would dave abandon his pursuit of JD and go this route?

[moonslav59]

This makes perfect sense. Would dave abandon his pursuit of JD and go this route?

 

I'd only do this, if we use the "left over" money on Nunez and/or a pitcher.

[Kimmi]

@nickcafardo

 

Just in case you’re moving on from the Patriots, David Price,Matt Barnes and Steven Wright were among the players working out at Jet Blue Park today. Sandy Leon also came in.

 

A healthy Price and Wright would be a big first step for this team.

 

A healthy Price is the key, IMO. If he's healthy, I expect him to have a great season. Having the likes of Johnson, Elias, and Velazquez take starts in place of Price represents a pretty big drop off.

[Kimmi]

Agreed.

 

It's time to think about what we actually have....if we sign JD, great, if not, we move on.

 

Basically we have every position starters back from last season. If someone is unable to go, we have back ups.

 

My guess is Price will be ready to go as long as there are no setbacks. Price, Sale, Porcello and Pom should start most of the games in April with some fill ins...Wright?

 

Our bullpen appears to be in pretty good shape.

 

My team is on the field.

 

Now we're talking. I think that the team, as currently constructed, will be a contender. I'd still like to upgrade somewhere, but I think we're fine if we don't.

[Kimmi]

Projections for Hanley are meaningless, don't you think? Most of our chat about Hanley has been about making sure that GD option doesn't vest.

 

We have to do something to upgrade IMO. If it isn't JDM, sign Arrieta or something.

 

Standing pat just doesn't cut it.

 

Of course the preference would be to upgrade somewhere, but why doesn't standing pat cut it? The team won 93 games last year with a lot of underperformances and no Price for a good bit of the season.

[Kimmi]

For Kimmi:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/02/lets-be-optimistic-on-the-offense/

 

Even so, age gives us an overall positive picture of how the 2018 Red Sox offense could look. Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and perhaps Bradley could all improve, and I think that’s actually relatively likely to happen just based on how their 2017 seasons went as well. That should be more than enough to offset what little production Boston receives from Pedroia, Moreland, and Ramirez...

 

FanGraphs projects seven of the Red Sox to improve, five of which significantly. Only Pedroia and Mitch Moreland are projected to improve only slightly from their 2017 performances. Rafael Devers is projected to perform just as he did last season, only to play a full season’s worth of games, which would be a large upgrade over what the Red Sox have been getting from third basemen over the past half decade or more. Only Christian Vazquez is projected to put up a worse performance...

 

Looking at all this, it seems safe to assume a good chunk of the Red Sox starting lineup should be expected, for a variety of reasons, to put up better seasons than they did in 2017. In fact, it’s not just a numerical chunk of the lineup, but the very best players in it, like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Bradley. Devers is a bit of a wild card given his youth, as are Ramirez and Moreland for their ages, and Pedroia for his age and injury history. It’s not hard to see Ramirez turning things around, Pedroia getting healthy and hitting better if not returning to his late-aught MVP form. Similarly, this could be the end of the line for these guys. Sometimes baseball doesn’t let you down gently. Sometimes it smashes you into the concrete. But the smart guess is that both Ramirez and Pedroia have something approximating league average hitting left in them.

 

Add that to a stronger front of the lineup featuring everyone with a surnamed starting with B, and you’ve got a potentially strong lineup. So, do the Red Sox need J.D. Martinez to improve their offense in 2018? I suspect they don’t. I suspect it will get better simply by running the same team out there again.

 

I read this a couple of days ago, and of course, I agree completely with what Kory is saying. As he says, it's not just possible, but it's very likely that most of our offense will improve, and possible that some will improve significantly.

 

Positive regression, baby, positive regression!

[Kimmi]

It didn't make sense to me, that so many players below prime all (but Vaz) stepped back last year. Add to that the fact that everyone else in prime or nearing post prime declined as well- all at the same time.

 

It makes sense, we'll see an overall improvement this year, even without adding anyone. We lost Young & Nunez, and we'll gain a full year of Devers.

 

I'd like to see JD here this year, but if we sign LoMo (or Duda) and Nunez instead, I'd be okay.

 

It made no sense whatsoever that so many of our batters performed below expectations. That might be one thing if they were aging players, but they are at an age where they should be improving as they reach their prime. I really do think we'll see a good offense this year, even without JD.

[Kimmi]

I'd be feeling more hopeful if JDM was signed.

 

He's still on your wish list too, according to your signature.

 

I think the idea that we're going to be just fine if we stand pat is a bit silly.

The Yankees added some guy named Stanton and they were already 7 games better than us last year based on run differential.

 

 

The Yankees are currently projected to have a run differential of 2 runs better than the Red Sox.