A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

Porcello, looks to me like our #5 pitcher, replace him with Wright or someone else.

 

You guys place too much emphasis on just the most recent performance level.

[Bellhorn04]

Machado + Wright > Porcello + Xander

 

Wright has pitched very little and very badly since his infamous pinch-running stint. I wouldn't bet a whole lot on him. If he gives us 100 decent innings it's a bonus.

[moonslav59]

Wright has pitched very little and very badly since his infamous pinch-running stint. I wouldn't bet a whole lot on him. If he gives us 100 decent innings it's a bonus.

 

Wright is certainly a question mark, and with a possible suspension or distraction looming, it wouldn't surprise me to see him lose the 5 slot to Johnson, Velazquez or someone else.

 

That being said, I've been a big Wright fan. While his start to 2017 looks like it might have been an outlier, he actually has a pretty long record of doing well.

 

35 GS'd and 15 RP'er appearances from 2013-2016:

 

20-11 3.58 (2.8 WAR)

 

Farm:

2012: 10-7 2.54 (142 IP in AA-AAA))

winter: 0-1 2.48 (29 IP)

2013: 8-7 3.46 (135 in AAA)

2014: 6-5 3.42 (100 in AA-AAA)

2015: 2-5 3.81 (52 IP)

 

His only bad streak since 2011 was after the injury.

[mvp 78]

Wright is certainly a question mark, and with a possible suspension or distraction looming, it wouldn't surprise me to see him lose the 5 slot to Johnson, Velazquez or someone else.

 

That being said, I've been a big Wright fan. While his start to 2017 looks like it might have been an outlier, he actually has a pretty long record of doing well.

 

35 GS'd and 15 RP'er appearances from 2013-2016:

 

20-11 3.58 (2.8 WAR)

 

Farm:

2012: 10-7 2.54 (142 IP in AA-AAA)) A 29 YEAR OLD PITCHING WELL IN AA AND AAA

winter: 0-1 2.48 (29 IP)

2013: 8-7 3.46 (135 in AAA) 5.40 ERA WITH TWO STARTS WITH BOS

2014: 6-5 3.42 (100 in AA-AAA) 21 INNINGS MOSTLY IN LOW PRESSURE LONG RELIEF FOR BOS

2015: 2-5 3.81 (52 IP) 4.09 ERA IN 16 GAMES WITH BOS 5.01 FIP

 

His only bad streak since 2011 was after the injury.

 

He started out 2016 really hot, but was at best league average after mid May.

[moonslav59]

He started out 2016 really hot, but was at best league average after mid May.

 

From mid May 2016...

 

IP ER (H+BB)

8.0 3 (6)

7.0 2 (9)

9.0 2 (9)

5.0 0 (8)

7.1 0 (9)

7.1 3 (9)

9.0 0 (8)

 

From May 15th to June 24th, Wright had one of his best stretches ever.

His June ERA was his second lowest of the season (1.62). On May 18th his ERA was 2.52, and on June 24th it was 2.01. (I think you missed by a month.)

 

14 starts is pretty impressive, and he was decent for 4 years beforehand.

 

BTW, his ERA on AUG 25th, was still 3.01 (after 22 starts).

 

[Nick]

By the time Macho becomes a FA, Porcello & Bogey will have one year left, so it's not so simple as swapping contract costs for Porcello & Bogey.

 

Yes, the money in 2019 will be about even, and I'd much rather have Machado & Wright than Porcello & Bogey, but 2020 and beyond will be very costly.

 

Yes, there will be some money, but much will be eaten by rising arb costs of Betts, JBJ, Vaz, ERod and others.

 

I'm certainly interested in Machado, and I'd be willing to pass on JD, if it meant we got Machado.

 

The other part of your suggestion, is what could we get by trading Bogey & Porcello after 2018? Probably something very special to add to Machado's gain.

 

(I'm not against the idea.)

 

Lets' start with $60M in savings. Incremental cost of acquiring Machado for $30M is $20M since we're getting rid of Xander and his arb 3 cost. (est of $12M?)

 

That leaves us $40M from savings realized in getting rid of payroll from Porcello, Hanley, Kimbrel, and Holt. We will need to re-sign Pom or find a comparable replacement.

Maybe he'll have a great year and it takes $25M to sign him. He's already making $8.5M so at most, it will cost us additional $17M to sign Pom for $25M. (I'm being very generous).

 

That leaves us with $23M from original savings and $9M we pick up from increase in the luxury tax for 2019, or $32M to cover increases in arbitrations costs. Keep in mind that's keeping our CURRENT AAV payroll of $205M.

 

2020 fix will be relatively simple, we sign Sale lets say for $30M (just to make it easy). That's $17M more than what he'll be making in 2019. Where do we get THAT money? Sandoval's $18.455M contract will have expired. Bingo. Just to be safe, Moreland's $6.5M will also be coming off our books. Our payroll is still around $205M. Hopefully a young player will have emerged by 2020 to replace Moreland, if not sooner.

 

2021? Hell Betts maybe making close to $20M by then. Signing him to $30M deal won't be that difficult. We have 2 years left on current CBA. Thus we can finally blow past our luxury tax limit to second penalty phase. $237M and additional 12.5% penalty. I contend luxury threashhold will get a big bump in next CBA. Union got played in this one.

 

If we do what I suggest, we can actually stay below the luxury tax threashhold for 2019 and reset the penalty again for 2020 season. Make sense? Don't let Hanley's contract vest and give away Porcello for $20M.

 

We will have 4 $30M players, Sale, Price, Machado and Betts for 2021 season. If they can't lead us, then we don't deserve to win.

 

f*** JD.

Edited February 7, 2018 by Nick

[mvp 78]

How is JBJ getting $20M in this market? Last year Dyson signed a 2.8M deal for one year. JBJ isn't worth 7 times that much.

[notin]

got to cut cost somewhere.

 

Yep, it would be great to keep everyone and sign JD this winter, throw in Nunez, then sign Machado next year. But that's unrealistic.

 

You have to make choices. Do you extend Pom and keep Porcello if he has a trade value?

 

Aren't you the one advocating for using young players? Why not go with Wright if he's healthy? He eats up innings as well as the next guy. His ERA can't be any worse than Porcello's.

 

Wright is 4 years older than Porcello. ..

[moonslav59]

Lets' start with $60M in savings. Incremental cost of acquiring Machado for $30M is $20M since we're getting rid of Xander and his arb 3 cost. (est of $12M?)

 

That leaves us $40M from savings realized in getting rid of payroll from Porcello, Hanley, Kimbrel, and Holt. We will need to re-sign Pom or find a comparable replacement.

Maybe he'll have a great year and it takes $25M to sign him. He's already making $8.5M so at most, it will cost us additional $17M to sign Pom for $25M. (I'm being very generous).

 

That leaves us with $23M from original savings and $9M we pick up from increase in the luxury tax for 2019, or $32M to cover increases in arbitrations costs. Keep in mind that's keeping our CURRENT AAV payroll of $205M.

 

2020 fix will be relatively simple, we sign Sale lets say for $30M (just to make it easy). That's $17M more than what he'll be making in 2019. Where do we get THAT money? Sandoval's $18.455M contract will have expired. Bingo. Just to be safe, Moreland's $6.5M will also be coming off our books. Our payroll is still around $205M.

 

2021? Hell Betts maybe making close to $20M by then. Signing him to $30M deal won't be that difficult. We have 2 years left on current CBA. Thus we can finally blow past our luxury tax limit to second penalty phase. $237M and additional 12.5% penalty.

 

If we do what I suggest, we can actually stay below the luxury tax threashhold for 2019 and reset the penalty again for 2020 season. Make sense? Don't let Hanley's contract vest and give away Porcello for $20M.

 

We will have 4 $30M players, Sale, Price, Machado and Betts for 2021 season. If they can't lead us, then we don't deserve to win.

 

f*** JD.

 

Again, I don't disagree, especially, if we don't sign JD this winter.

Concerns with your plan...

 

1) Losing Kimbrel & Kelly will need serious addressing or good luck with Smith & Thornburg.

 

2) Arb raises might be more than you expect.

Betts 2 of 3

JBJ 3 of 4

ERod 2 of 3

Smith 2 of 3

Thornburg 3 of 3

Vazquez 2 of 3

Wright 2 of 3

Workman 2 of 3

Barnes, Hembree & Swihart 1st arb years

 

3) Pom might cost $20M

 

4) Who's our DH? Chavis or Brentz? (Could be scary.)

 

2019 Biudget

31 Price

28 Machado

15 Betts (est)

15 Pedey

13 Sale

10 JBJ (est)

6 Kelly

3 Smith, Wright, Vazquez

That's about $150M for just 10 players. Add $15M for player benefits, and we're at $165M with 30 players to pay.

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Price

SP3 Pom

SP4 ERod

SP5 Wright

SP6 ______ (Johnson, Velazquez)

(Serious issues with this rotation)

 

RP1 _______

RP2 Smith

RP3 Thornburg

RP4 Barnes

RP6 Hembree

RP7 Scott/Workman/Maddox

(We may need help with the pen after losing Kimbrel & Kelly)

 

C: Vaz & leon/Swihart

1B: Moreland

2B: Pedey

SS: Machado

3B: Devers

LF: Beni

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

DH: ______ (Chavis/Brentz)

 

After 2019, we lose $14M oif Pablo ($19M - $5M buyout), but Sale will get a $20M raise, and arb costs will skyrocket.

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Wright is 4 years older than Porcello. ..

 

I do agree that Machado over Bogey outweighs Porcello over Wright.

[Nick]

Again, I don't disagree, especially, if we don't sign JD this winter.

Concerns with your plan...

 

1) Losing Kimbrel & Kelly will need serious addressing or good luck with Smith & Thornburg.

 

2) Arb raises might be more than you expect.

Betts 2 of 3

JBJ 3 of 4

ERod 2 of 3

Smith 2 of 3

Thornburg 3 of 3

Vazquez 2 of 3

Wright 2 of 3

Workman 2 of 3

Barnes, Hembree & Swihart 1st arb years

 

3) Pom might cost $20M

 

4) Who's our DH? Chavis or Brentz? (Could be scary.)

 

2019 Biudget

31 Price

28 Machado

15 Betts (est)

15 Pedey

13 Sale

10 JBJ (est)

6 Kelly

3 Smith, Wright, Vazquez

That's about $150M for just 10 players. Add $15M for player benefits, and we're at $165M with 30 players to pay.

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Price

SP3 Pom

SP4 Wright

SP5 ______ (Johnson, Velazquez)

(Serios issues with this rotation)

 

RP1 _______

RP2 Smith

RP3 Thornburg

RP4 Barnes

RP6 Hembree

RP7 Scott/Workman/Maddox

(We may need help with the pen after losing Kimbrel & Kelly)

 

C: Vaz & leon/Swihart

1B: Moreland

2B: Pedey

SS: Machado

3B: Devers

LF: Beni

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

DH: ______ (Chavis/Brentz)

 

After 2019, we lose $14M oif Pablo ($19M - $5M buyout), but Sale will get a $20M raise, and arb costs will skyrocket.

 

 

 

 

I have Pom at $25M, I have $32M reserved for arb increases. (if Porcello has a great year, then maybe we can keep him. It just means we'll be over $20M above the luxury tax for 2018: we can reset for 2020)

 

There seems to be consensus we shouldn't spend too much on bullpen. Obviously if we start blowing several games, I'd be first to be complaining. I'm not enamored with Kelly to be honest. He throws hard STRAIGHT balls.

 

2018 we have both E Rod and Porcello

2019 we still have E Rod, Did You Forget about him?

 

I believe Sox have stated their preference is to have full time DH but maybe it can be a shared position, Maybe it should be Pedroia starting as early as 2019. His body is going south fast. Again, if you have Betts and Machado in the lineup along with Beni and Devers, we should be able to score.

 

I'm just not as concerned about our team as others at this point.

 

I would love to have Nunez at right price thought. We can give him enough bats.

Edited February 7, 2018 by Nick

[harmony]

How is JBJ getting $20M in this market? Last year Dyson signed a 2.8M deal for one year. JBJ isn't worth 7 times that much.

Jarrod Dyson was not a free agent a year ago.

 

Dyson was a 32-year-old whose annual WAR topped out at 3.1 while Jackie Bradley Jr. posted 5.0 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR as a 26-year-old.

[moonslav59]

I have Pom at $25M, I have $32M reserved for arb increases. (if Porcello has a great year, then maybe we can keep him. It just means we'll be over $20M above the luxury tax for 2018: we can reset for 2020)

 

There seems to be consensus we shouldn't spend too much on bullpen. Obviously if we start blowing several games, I'd be first to be complaining. I'm not enamored with Kelly to be honest. He throws hard STRAIGHT balls.

 

2018 we have both E Rod and Porcello

2019 we still have E Rod, Did You Forget about him?

 

I believe Sox have stated their preference is to have full time DH but maybe it can be a shared position, Maybe it should be Pedroia starting as early as 2019. His body is going south fast. Again, if you have Betts and Machado in the lineup along with Beni and Devers, we should be able to score.

 

I'm just not as concerned about our team as others at this point.

 

I would love to have Nunez at right price thought. We can give him enough bats.

 

Yes, I forgot EROD, I'll go back and add him.

 

Thanks.

[moonslav59]

I have Pom at $25M, I have $32M reserved for arb increases. (if Porcello has a great year, then maybe we can keep him. It just means we'll be over $20M above the luxury tax for 2018: we can reset for 2020)

 

There seems to be consensus we shouldn't spend too much on bullpen. Obviously if we start blowing several games, I'd be first to be complaining. I'm not enamored with Kelly to be honest. He throws hard STRAIGHT balls.

 

2018 we have both E Rod and Porcello

2019 we still have E Rod, Did You Forget about him?

 

I believe Sox have stated their preference is to have full time DH but maybe it can be a shared position, Maybe it should be Pedroia starting as early as 2019. His body is going south fast. Again, if you have Betts and Machado in the lineup along with Beni and Devers, we should be able to score.

 

I'm just not as concerned about our team as others at this point.

 

I would love to have Nunez at right price thought. We can give him enough bats.

 

If we don't sign JD, but sign Nunez to 2-3 years and Duda to 1 year, we'd be perfectly set up to sign Machado and trade Bogey for a SP'er or SP & RP or DH/4th OF type.

 

We could use Pedey and maybe Devers at DH a bit. Nunez > hernandez.

[notin]

With Nunez, there's always the question of what he wants. He might be OK being a highly paid superb who rotates from position to position and gets 400 PAs per year. But he also might prefer a starting position where he is atop the depth chart.

[Bellhorn04]

With Nunez, there's always the question of what he wants. He might be OK being a highly paid superb who rotates from position to position and gets 400 PAs per year. But he also might prefer a starting position where he is atop the depth chart.

 

Superbs should definitely be highly paid.

[moonslav59]

With Nunez, there's always the question of what he wants. He might be OK being a highly paid superb who rotates from position to position and gets 400 PAs per year. But he also might prefer a starting position where he is atop the depth chart.

 

If we told Nunez, we plan on DH'ing Pedey a lot going forward, he might be more inclined to sign here.

 

If we sign JD, we'd have to convince him to be our supersub. He'd squeeze most of the ABs from Hernandez, Brentz, Swihart (no-catching), and marrero. Holt would be traded.

[mvp 78]

If we told Nunez, we plan on DH'ing Pedey a lot going forward, he might be more inclined to sign here.

 

If we sign JD, we'd have to convince him to be our supersub. He'd squeeze most of the ABs from Hernandez, Brentz, Swihart (no-catching), and marrero. Holt would be traded.

 

Why DH a negative OWAR guy?

[moonslav59]

Why DH a negative OWAR guy?

 

Again, one year does not project to the following year.

 

If Pedey continues as a negative O WAR batter, then of course we change the plan.

[a700hitter]

Except that the first year of that extension was a year he won the Cy Young. So he's only had the one bad year since it kicked in.

 

He got the extension primarily because he's very young for a pitcher looking at free agency. He's only a few days older than Bryce Brentz, whom many think still deserves a chance. That he settled for 4 years when he could have gotten 6 or 7 on the open market and probably well over $120million did mean the extension made sense. Jason Heyward got a crazy expensive long contract primarily based on age around that time...

But he has had 2 terrible years out of 3 in a Red Sox uniform. Two out of three is bad. I wouldn't have done that deal every day. They could have got him for half price after that first year.

[Kimmi]

got to cut cost somewhere.

 

Yep, it would be great to keep everyone and sign JD this winter, throw in Nunez, then sign Machado next year. But that's unrealistic.

 

You have to make choices. Do you extend Pom and keep Porcello if he has a trade value?

 

Aren't you the one advocating for using young players? Why not go with Wright if he's healthy? He eats up innings as well as the next guy. His ERA can't be any worse than Porcello's.

 

I'm not signing Machado next year.

 

I'd rather keep Porcello. Which is not to imply that I think Porcello is a better player. But Porcello is a better value than Machado and his hefty contract will be.

[Kimmi]

Except that the first year of that extension was a year he won the Cy Young. So he's only had the one bad year since it kicked in.

 

He got the extension primarily because he's very young for a pitcher looking at free agency. He's only a few days older than Bryce Brentz, whom many think still deserves a chance. That he settled for 4 years when he could have gotten 6 or 7 on the open market and probably well over $120million did mean the extension made sense. Jason Heyward got a crazy expensive long contract primarily based on age around that time...

 

Exactly. The projected contract for Porcello was a good bit higher than what the Red Sox paid him. A 4 year contract for a then 27 year old pitcher top to mid rotation pitcher is almost a no brainer.

[Kimmi]

Machado + Wright > Porcello + Xander

 

I'm not so sure about that.

[a700hitter]

Exactly. The projected contract for Porcello was a good bit higher than what the Red Sox paid him. A 4 year contract for a then 27 year old pitcher top to mid rotation pitcher is almost a no brainer.

Like the Buchholz options were no-brainers.

[Kimmi]

Again, one year does not project to the following year.

 

If Pedey continues as a negative O WAR batter, then of course we change the plan.

 

Pedroia is not a negative OWAR batter. He has a negative OWAR because of his baserunning. MVP knows this.

[Kimmi]

Like the Buchholz options were no-brainers.

 

Yup!

 

As would be signing Buchholz to a minor league deal!

[a700hitter]

Yup!

 

As would be signing Buchholz to a minor league deal!

But not for $13 million

[Kimmi]

But not for $13 million

 

Hindsight aside, $13 mil was a bargain for Buchholz.

[Kimmi]

BP has finally released its standings predictions.

 

"Boston Red Sox projected to finish second in AL East with 87 wins, New York Yankees first with 96, per Baseball Prospectus"

 

 

Bell, you may officially begin to panic.

 

Then again, they predicted the Sox to win 88 games last year and the Rays to win the division.

[a700hitter]

Hindsight aside, $13 mil was a bargain for Buchholz.

I took that position with foresight, and I was right.