A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[mvp 78]

I certainly get what you're saying.

 

I'm not ready to think of Martinez as a bad guy yet.

 

I tend to think he's relying on the advice of Boras.

 

To me it's not much different than if you're trying to sell your house.

 

You've got an offer in hand for $350,000 but your agent is convinced that if you wait a little longer you'll get an offer for $360,000 or $375,000. The agent has a good track record of being right. What do you do?

 

Most people would probably listen to the agent. They wouldn't want to kick themselves later for getting less money for the house than they could have.

 

I think there's a fine line between greed and just wanting to get the best deal you can. Maybe it's just human nature.

 

He wants his money. It'll be his biggest chance of his lifetime to earn a huge payday. I can't blame him for waiting until the end.

[mvp 78]

Maybe he wanted to spite her out of the 6.5 million.

 

Or he went home to fix his marriage and it didn't work out. It's his life. He tried to do what was best for him. Maybe a last ditch effort to save his personal life was more important than $6.5M?

[Bellhorn04]

Or he went home to fix his marriage and it didn't work out. It's his life. He tried to do what was best for him. Maybe a last ditch effort to save his personal life was more important than $6.5M?

 

Yeah, I'm certainly not judging him.

[cp176]

He wants his money. It'll be his biggest chance of his lifetime to earn a huge payday. I can't blame him for waiting until the end.

 

I really agree with you here but in some respects it still doesn't make much sense to me. Do you think he thinks that by waiting longer he is going to add another 25 or so million to the offer? I would think that to be unlikely.

[mvp 78]

I really agree with you here but in some respects it still doesn't make much sense to me. Do you think he thinks that by waiting longer he is going to add another 25 or so million to the offer? I would think that to be unlikely.

 

He's hoping that the Sox will give him another year. He knows that he's their #1 priority because DD and ownership stupidly said he was. He thinks the Sox won't go anywhere else, so he knows he'll do no worse than whatever offer the Sox have on the table. To JD, it doesn't matter if he signs today or the day before ST starts. Might as well wait a little while.

[cp176]

He's hoping that the Sox will give him another year. He knows that he's their #1 priority because DD and ownership stupidly said he was. He thinks the Sox won't go anywhere else, so he knows he'll do no worse than whatever offer the Sox have on the table. To JD, it doesn't matter if he signs today or the day before ST starts. Might as well wait a little while.

 

I would be very curious to know how this is affecting to fan base in general. I know how it is affecting me.

[mvp 78]

I would be very curious to know how this is affecting to fan base in general. I know how it is affecting me.

 

Once the games start, all will be forgotten.

[cp176]

Once the games start, all will be forgotten.

 

I'm to Scottish and set in my ways - f*** em all says me

[dgalehouse]

It's a tough world. Money talks. Dempster was a fool to walk away from that much money. You can give him all the kudos you want , he was still a fool.

[moonslav59]

So, why is JD being vilified for trying to squeeze out an extra million or two?

[Bellhorn04]

It's a tough world. Money talks. Dempster was a fool to walk away from that much money. You can give him all the kudos you want , he was still a fool.

 

Forget about the kudos, then, but no one can judge him without knowing what he was feeling like at the time.

[FredLynn]

I would be very curious to know how this is affecting to fan base in general. I know how it is affecting me.

 

I agree with you. If we end up signing Martinez I hope the fans give him a very loud chorus of boos at the home opener.

[Carpin]

It's a tough world. Money talks. Dempster was a fool to walk away from that much money. You can give him all the kudos you want , he was still a fool.

 

I have a problem with this, we all criticize those "money hungry" players and now we treat as an idiot the only guy who had the balls to walk away from a payday that most of us won't see in a lifetime

[FredLynn]

...and himself, too, then.

 

Maybe he wasn't as "cerebral" as many fans thought.

 

Kudos to Dempster for setting his priorities correctly, whatever they were-obviously the top priority was not money, nor should it ever be unless you are starving or homeless.

[cp176]

I have a problem with this, we all criticize those "money hungry" players and now we treat as an idiot the only guy who had the balls to walk away from a payday that most of us won't see in a lifetime

 

Maybe through a slow process of scrimping and saving Ryan Dempster felt that he had enough money to see him through.

[S5Dewey]

It's a tough world. Money talks. Dempster was a fool to walk away from that much money. You can give him all the kudos you want , he was still a fool.

 

I dunno.. Not everything in the world is about money.

 

There's an old saying that money isn't everything, as long as you've got plenty of it. Maybe Dempster thought he had plenty of it.

[Nick]

Can you list Boras free agent clients?

[mvp 78]

Can you list Boras free agent clients?

 

Pedro Alvarez

Jake Arrieta

Stephen Drew

Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gonzalez

Jeremy Hellickson

Greg Holland

Matt Holliday

Eric Hosmer

J.D. Martinez

Mike Moustakas

Mike Pelfrey

Jayson Werth

[mvp 78]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Boras

 

Bigger list.

[Nick]

Goal for 2018 without JD

 

Get into the playoffs with healthy starting rotation....I'll take my chances with Sale, Price, Pom and Porcello/E Rod

 

Get out of Hanley contract for 2019....save $22M

Find a replacement for Kimbrel for 2019 (Carson Smith?)....save $13M

Trade and find a replacement for Porcello for 2019 (Wright?)....save $20M

Find a replacement for J Kelly for 2019....save $3.8M

 

that's total savings of $58.8M, get rid of Holt and we're close to $61M.

 

Immediate action will be to sign Pomeranz. He's already making $8.5M, luxury tax limit goes up by $9M. So from my perspective we already have slotted $17.5M for Pom.

 

Assuming we sign Pom or someone comparable for $20-22M, I think we can still compete and get into the playoffs in 2019. Yeah some of that $60M in savings will be eaten up by higher arbitration numbers, but we still should have enough to sign one impact bat for 2020 or save money for Sale for 2020.

 

I'll go out on the limb and anoint Michael Chavis as a starter for 2019, savings some money.

Edited February 6, 2018 by Nick

[Nick]

Pedro Alvarez

Jake Arrieta

Stephen Drew

Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gonzalez

Jeremy Hellickson

Greg Holland

Matt Holliday

Eric Hosmer

J.D. Martinez

Mike Moustakas

Mike Pelfrey

Jayson Werth

 

wow....thanks (maybe the real problem is too many players are handled by just one agent, in essence Boras controls the market)

Edited February 6, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Goal for 2018 without JD

 

Get into the playoffs with healthy starting rotation....I'll take my chances with Sale, Price, Pom and Porcello/E Rod

 

Get out of Hanley contract for 2019....save $22M

Find a replacement for Kimbrel for 2019 (Carson Smith?)....save $13M

Trade and find a replacement for Porcello for 2019 (Wright?)....save $20M

Find a replacement for J Kelly for 2019....save $3.8M

 

that's total savings of $58.8M, get rid of Holt and we're close to $60M.

 

Immediate action will be to sign Pomeranz. He's already making $8.5M, luxury tax limit goes up by $9M. So from my perspective we already have slotted $17.5M for Pom.

 

Assuming we sign Pom or someone comparable for $20-22M, I think we can still compete and get into the playoffs in 2019. Yeah some of that $60M in savings will be eaten up by higher arbitration numbers, but we still should have enough to sign one impact bat for 2020.

 

I'll go out on the limb and anoint Michael Chavis as a starter for 2019, savings some money.

 

Chances are, we don't do all of this. We'd need every replacement player to come through nicely..

 

I think we keep Pom, make sure HRam does not vest and try to keep Bogey. We'll sign a SP'er to take Porcello's place, but maybe not at $20M. Wright remains the 6th starter.

[notin]

The Sox might not be so eager to move Porcello.

 

If he isn't very good in 2018, moving him will be next to impossible. If he is good in 2018, replacing him for $20mill might be next to impossible. ..

[notin]

Chances are, we don't do all of this. We'd need every replacement player to come through nicely..

 

I think we keep Pom, make sure HRam does not vest and try to keep Bogey. We'll sign a SP'er to take Porcello's place, but maybe not at $20M. Wright remains the 6th starter.

 

The Sox might let Bogaerts walk to accomodate Machado. They've already expressed an interest in Manny once....

[Nick]

The Sox might not be so eager to move Porcello.

 

If he isn't very good in 2018, moving him will be next to impossible. If he is good in 2018, replacing him for $20mill might be next to impossible. ..

 

Replace him with Wright.....We have no business paying our #5 starter $20M.

 

Look, it's a game of give and take. If you boss tells you to cut cost, where would you cut it?

[moonslav59]

The Sox might let Bogaerts walk to accomodate Machado. They've already expressed an interest in Manny once....

 

I could see that, especially if we miss out on JD.

 

I could also see us letting Bogey go, going with defense at SS and using the money to power up at 1B.

[Nick]

The Sox might let Bogaerts walk to accomodate Machado. They've already expressed an interest in Manny once....

 

I'm good with that...Xander's making $7M and he'll probably go up to $12M for 2019. So it's just a matter of coming up with $18M. Porcello's $20M should cover it.

 

Machado + Wright > Xander + Porcello

Edited February 6, 2018 by Nick

[harmony]

wow....thanks (maybe the real problem is too many players are handled by just one agent, in essence Boras controls the market)

In as much as I admire Scott Boras' skills, his representation of multiple top free agents probably is not good for the overall market.

[Kimmi]

JD would certainly add to the chances our offense improves significantly.

 

I'm expecting a "career year" from one of these players:

 

Betts

 

Bogaerts

 

Bradley

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Moreland has his best year ever.

 

Devers and Beni could make great strides or take a step back for a year.

 

Pedey, HRam and Vaz should decline over their 2017 or 2016 best numbers.

 

A couple of players may take a step back, but there were so many underperformances last year that the offense, as a whole, should see a fair amount of improvement. No doubt that adding JD would help even more. Because of health concerns, I am still more concerned about our starting rotation than I am about our offense.

[Kimmi]

Let me put it this way, if Martinez signs somewhere else for 125 million or less I'm going to be pissed. That would be less than what MLBTR projected him to sign for.

 

He's far from a perfect player but he's a perfect fit for us in several departments. Baseball-wise it's his power, of course. Cost-wise, it's money and money only. Not a single prospect nor draft pick shall be harmed.

 

I understand what you're saying. I can't imagine that Dombrowski would allow JD to sign elsewhere for that amount. JD is too good a fit for us. I have to believe that Dombrowski would be willing to go as high as $150 million, if there were competitive bid from another team.

 

Which, again, is what leads me to believe that there are no other competitive offers.