A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

And I see no harm in any of them getting minor league contracts, something I can safely say without knowing who any of them even are...

 

If Buch is one of the 2-3 guys we sign, I'm not going to be terribly upset.

 

I'd just rather find someone else who is more likely to be ready day one and not get hurt during the season.

[harmony]

Mookie won his arbitration case and gets $10.5 million this year.

Does the arbitration decision impact how much the Red Sox are willing to offer J.D. Martinez? Were the Sox prepared to up their offer to Martinez if the arbiters chose the lower salary for Mookie Betts?

 

The arbitration ruling likely impacts not only the 2018 budget but the 2019 and 2020 budgets as well as the Red Sox negotiate the luxury tax threshold.

[moonslav59]

Does the arbitration decision impact how much the Red Sox are willing to offer J.D. Martinez? Were the Sox prepared to up their offer to Martinez if the arbiters chose the lower salary for Mookie Betts?

 

The arbitration ruling likely impacts not only the 2018 budget but the 2019 and 2020 budgets as well as the Red Sox negotiate the luxury tax threshold.

 

We had a buffer of about $7-9M before we reach the next penalty phase, assuming JD costs us $25M a year.

[Kimmi]

It might mean 6 pitchers and Moreland got hurt.

 

Or it might mean that they are playing better than the players they are replacing.

[Kimmi]

Why else would Buch be starting?

 

I can understand HRam doing so well, he gets the vesting option, but I'm thinking he still might not vest, even if he's doing well. (He may get injured for part of the season, or JD & Moreland might also do well, and squeeze him from enough PAs to vest.)

 

Having all of our other starters injured is not the only reason that Buch would start.

[Kimmi]

I'll say it again, the Sox have shot themselves in the foot trying to low-ball Betts.

 

Whatever happens with this case he most likely will remember it come contract time. I think he is gone at his first chance.

 

Just dumb business.

 

I am pretty sure Betts would have been gone anyway. He's not giving the Red Sox a discount, and some other team will give him crazy money, more than the Sox are willing to give.

[Kimmi]

So if two guys get hurt and Velasquez and Johnson bombs out, you prefer a starter who can't beat out Clay Buchholz?

 

It could be that Clay actually pitches better than our 5th, 6th, 7th starters.

[Kimmi]

When ML guys sign minor league deals, there is typically language that they will be brought up by a certain date or released. I wouldn't want the Sox to feel compelled to call up a broken down and fragile 33 year old over a younger pitcher with more upside.

 

The Sox will only feel compelled to call him up if he's pitching well.

[Kimmi]

Mookie won his arbitration case and gets $10.5 million this year.

 

Happy for Mookie, but I'm not sure this is the best thing for the Red Sox, and I'm not talking about the extra $3 mil they had to shell out.

 

The arb salaries are getting out of hand too.

[Kimmi]

Signing Clay to a minor league deal would be a no brainer, much like picking up his first $13 mil option several years back was a no brainer.

[moonslav59]

Happy for Mookie, but I'm not sure this is the best thing for the Red Sox, and I'm not talking about the extra $3 mil they had to shell out.

 

The arb salaries are getting out of hand too.

 

Arb raises are going up faster than the luxury tax limit,

[notin]

If Buch is one of the 2-3 guys we sign, I'm not going to be terribly upset.

 

I'd just rather find someone else who is more likely to be ready day one and not get hurt during the season.

 

Sure. Someone more likely would be better. Or maybe even anyone at all.

 

How about any pitching at all? The off-season for Boston started 115 days ago and Dombrowski hasn't added a single pitcher anywhere in the entire organization. ..

[moonslav59]

Sure. Someone more likely would be better. Or maybe even anyone at all.

 

How about any pitching at all? The off-season for Boston started 115 days ago and Dombrowski hasn't added a single pitcher anywhere in the entire organization. ..

 

Maybe his hope is that he's adding a full season of Price, Carson Smith, Maddox and Workman plus whatever we get from Thornburg.

 

I can't see DD going the whole winter without at least signing a journeyman pitcher or two to a minor league deal.

 

[notin]

Maybe his hope is that he's adding a full season of Price, Carson Smith, Maddox and Workman plus whatever we get from Thornburg.

 

I can't see DD going the whole winter without at least signing a journeyman pitcher or two to a minor league deal.

 

 

Well, we're almost there. ..

[harmony]

BP Boston columnist Matthew Kory looks ahead to next offseason:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/26/next-winters-woes/

[moonslav59]

BP Boston columnist Matthew Kory looks ahead to next offseason:

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/26/next-winters-woes/

 

Ho-hum.

 

He doesn't mention HRam's contract coming off the books in a year or two.

 

He provides a list that is missing Machado and Harper, but talks about them later.

 

He mentions Machado plays 3B, and we "have one already," but does not mention Machado's ability to play SS and the possibility of trading Bogey to fill a hole created by a departing player.

[mvp 78]

Arb raises are going up faster than the luxury tax limit,

 

The luxury tax is the problem.

[mvp 78]

Ho-hum.

 

He doesn't mention HRam's contract coming off the books in a year or two.

 

He provides a list that is missing Machado and Harper, but talks about them later.

 

He mentions Machado plays 3B, and we "have one already," but does not mention Machado's ability to play SS and the possibility of trading Bogey to fill a hole created by a departing player.

 

I heard Machado will be playing SS this year.

[moonslav59]

I heard Machado will be playing SS this year.

 

Yes, he will be.

[moonslav59]

The luxury tax is the problem.

 

I'm okay with the tax, but the limit should have been set higher and with larger increases year-to-year.

 

There should also be a minimum salary budget that rises faster than the top one.

[mvp 78]

I'm okay with the tax, but the limit should have been set higher and with larger increases year-to-year.

 

There should also be a minimum salary budget that rises faster than the top one.

 

I agree about both. The salary floor will probably never be passed by the owners, but it's something the players should fight for.

[moonslav59]

I agree about both. The salary floor will probably never be passed by the owners, but it's something the players should fight for.

 

Yes, players should push for the low limit raises more than the upper ones, since the upper ones usually only give a select few players huge contracts, while a raise to the lower levels would increase mid range contracts.

[mvp 78]

Yes, players should push for the low limit raises more than the upper ones, since the upper ones usually only give a select few players huge contracts, while a raise to the lower levels would increase mid range contracts.

 

I don't agree that "upper ones usually only a select few players receive huge contracts." I think the majority of the teams at the top of the payroll have filled their 25 man roster with decent contracts. I don't think there are too many that have a couple of big ticket players and the rest are league minimum. The Red Sox haven't seemed to go cheap in any specific area of their roster. Maybe they have a younger bullpen, but that's about it.

 

I think the luxury tax should rise, a floor should be created and reduce the amount of arbitration years so that players hit FA earlier. They also probably need to redo the draft structure and fix how international FA's are obtained.

[moonslav59]

I don't agree that "upper ones usually only a select few players receive huge contracts." I think the majority of the teams at the top of the payroll have filled their 25 man roster with decent contracts. I don't think there are too many that have a couple of big ticket players and the rest are league minimum. The Red Sox haven't seemed to go cheap in any specific area of their roster. Maybe they have a younger bullpen, but that's about it.

 

I think the luxury tax should rise, a floor should be created and reduce the amount of arbitration years so that players hit FA earlier. They also probably need to redo the draft structure and fix how international FA's are obtained.

 

One could argue the upper contracts bring others up, since an agent can say, well if Morrison is worth so much, then someone just below him should be worth just under his salary.

 

I do think most high spending teams focus a lot of their spending on just 3-5 players, and then there is a big drop off to the middle and arb guys and then another significant drop off to the pre-arb guys.

 

Look at the Sox (Luxury tax AVV):

 

$31M Price

 

$22M HRam

$21M Porcello

 

$14M Pedey

$13M Kimbrel

$13M Sale

$11M Betts

 

$9M Pom

$7M Bogey

$7M Moreland

$6M JBJ

 

$4M Kelly

 

$2M ERod, Holt, Thornburg, Leon

 

$1M Vaz, Wright, Smith, Workman

 

20 players at or near min salary.

9 players between $835K and $3.8M

4 players between $6.1M and $8.5M

4 players between $10.5M and $13.8M

3 players over $20.6M

 

My guess is the players would vote overwhelmingly for many more contracts between $6-15M than 7 or 8% over $20M.

 

I'm not sure raising the low limit on teams would accomplish this, but my guess is it would more than raising the top limit.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

One could argue the upper contracts bring others up, since an agent can say, well if Morrison is worth so much, then someone just below him should be worth just under his salary.

 

I do think most high spending teams focus a lot of their spending on just 3-5 players, and then there is a big drop off to the middle and arb guys and then another significant drop off to the pre-arb guys.

 

Look at the Sox (Luxury tax AVV):

 

$31M Price FA

 

$22M HRam FA

$21M Porcello Trade/new contract

 

$14M Pedey new contract

$13M Kimbrel trade

$13M Sale trade

$11M Betts arbitration

 

$9M Pom arbitration

$7M Bogey arbitration

$7M Moreland FA

$6M JBJ arbitration

 

$4M Kelly

 

$2M ERod, Holt, Thornburg, Leon

 

$1M Vaz, Wright, Smith, Workman

 

20 players at or near min salary.

9 players between $835K and $3.8M

4 players between $6.1M and $8.5M

4 players between $10.5M and $13.8M

3 players over $20.6M

 

My guess is the players would vote overwhelmingly for many more contracts between $6-15M than 7 or 8% over $20M.

 

I'm not sure raising the low limit on teams would accomplish this, but my guess is it would more than raising the top limit.

 

 

 

 

The majority of the guys making less than Betts are arbitration or pre-arbitration. It has nothing to do with "focus spending on 3-5 players." They have 9 players above 10M AAV (include Sandoval and Castillo).

[moonslav59]

The majority of the guys making less than Betts are arbitration or pre-arbitration. It has nothing to do with "focus spending on 3-5 players." They have 9 players above 10M AAV (include Sandoval and Castillo).

 

So? If they told low spending teams to spend more, my guess is they'd sign 3 guys at $10M not 1 at $30M or 5 guys at $6M vs 3 guys at $10M. They might also choose to lock up arb guys to longer contracts.

 

IMO, they should shorten the pre-arb and arb years and pay the better players while they are actually doing well, and not afterwards.

[Nick]

I suggested this while back but I'd like to see 'a home team cap' for any FA signing with his 'rookie of the year' home base. The cap amount can fluctuate just as Qualifying Offer amount does. Suppose it's $25M for 2021.

 

As an example, no matter how much the Sox pay Betts when he becomes FA, his 'luxury tax' implication to the Sox is say $25M. It would only apply to those players who stays with the same club where his rookie status season was spent.

 

This would encourage teams to develop home grown talent and keep them. I think it rewards teams that draft well and develop players.

[notin]

I suggested this while back but I'd like to see 'a home team cap' for any FA signing with his 'rookie of the year' home base. The cap amount can fluctuate just as Qualifying Offer amount does. Suppose it's $25M for 2021.

 

As an example, no matter how much the Sox pay Betts when he becomes FA, his 'luxury tax' implication to the Sox is say $25M. It would only apply to those players who stays with the same club where his rookie status season was spent.

 

This would encourage teams to develop home grown talent and keep them. I think it rewards teams that draft well and develop players.

 

 

 

Well, it rewards teams that can afford a $25 mill player.

 

And what does it do for players who are traded early in their service time?

[moonslav59]

If the player's union pushed hard for a minimum ML salary of $1M or $1.5M and a minimum payroll limit (maybe set 40 man roster min salary at $750K instead of high $500's), it would help more player than trying to up the maximum luxury limit.

[Behindenemylines]

I don’t think teams mine paying the large dollar amounts. I think it’s the length of the contracts that are the issue. If players would be willing to sign 3 to5 year deals instead of the 7 year plus ones I think teams wouldn’t mine paying the big $$$$$$$$! To many long term contracts go bad well before the end.