A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

It seems like we're out 22 million no matter which way we go, doesn't it?

[moonslav59]

Whether he's up or down, chances are he's not going to be worth that contract for 2 more years. You gotta let him go.

 

We can play him this year and not let him vest. He might hit 25 HRs in 475 PAs, and we'll get something for that $22M and say good bye to next year's $22M.

 

Just because he won't be worth $22M is not reason enough to DFA him. If he can play to the value of $5-10M, it's better to keep him and not have to pay him $22M anyways and then pray Travis does as well as he might have done.

[mvp 78]

We can play him thyis year and not let him vest. He might hit 25 HRs in 475 PAs, and we'll get something for that $22M and say good bye to next year's $22M.

 

And if you play him so much that he just barely missed his vesting option, be ready for a lawsuit. Just DFA him and be done with it.

[mvp 78]

It seems like we're out 22 million no matter which way we go, doesn't it?

 

But let's just keep the loss to one year rather than two.

[moonslav59]

But let's just keep the loss to one year rather than two.

 

That's something we can all agree on.

 

Even if he hits .310 with 30 HRs in 475 PAs, I'd want him gone. He won't very likely repeat it in 2019.

 

I actually said this before his decent 2016 season, "If HRam hits .300 40 110, I'd trade him after 2016, since it is likely he will not do it again."

[mvp 78]

That's something we can all agree on.

 

Even if he hits .310 with 30 HRs in 475 PAs, I'd want him gone. He won't very likely repeat it in 2019.

 

I actually said this before his decent 2016 season, "If HRam hits .300 40 110, I'd trade him after 2016, since it is likely he will not do it again."

 

But if he's playing that well, the player would seem to have a grievance for not reaching his vesting option.

[moonslav59]

But if he's playing that well, the player would seem to have a grievance for not reaching his vesting option.

 

Not, if we have JD or Duda.

 

Part of the reason he might be doing so well, is that he only starts vs LHPs and some RHPs he has done well against in the past.

 

Duda kills RHP'ers, so we'll have plenty of evidence to support the choice to play him over HRam.

[mvp 78]

Not, if we have JD or Duda.

 

Part of the reason he might be doing so well, is that he only starts vs LHPs and some RHPs he has done well against in the past.

 

Duda kills RHP'ers, so we'll have plenty of evidence to support the choice to play him over HRam.

 

Hanley sucked against LHP last year tho?

[moonslav59]

Hanley sucked against LHP last year tho?

 

He normally kills them. I think his injury hurt his numbers vs LHPs. I'm willing to see if the surgery helped (or not).

[moonslav59]

He normally kills them. I think his injury hurt his numbers vs LHPs. I'm willing to see if the surgery helped (or not).

 

HRam vs LHPs (should be a great platoon)

 

1.097 in 2016

.869 in 2014

1.142 in 2013

 

.897 career vs LHPs

.838 career vs RHPs

[Kimmi]

The sox cannot let that vesting option vest. If the sox sign JD as is widely expected and Hanley’s option vests, you’ll have no money at all to retain Pomeranz or Kimbrel and you’d go beyond the threshold on arb raises alone. Another signing is in the offing to reduce Hanley’s role. Bank on it

 

We do not want to re-sign Kimbrel for the amount that he is going to command.

[Kimmi]

Yup. He can't vest this year. Even if the Sox don't sign JD, they can't let that vest.

 

I hope Hanley rakes and his option vests, and I hope the Sox sign Buchholz to a minor league deal and he ends up becoming a regular starter in our rotation.

 

Just because.

[Kimmi]

Do your eyes light up when you see a roulette wheel. The even/odd year thing is just silly.

 

I don't buy into the even/odd year thing either, but there really is no hurry to DFA Hanley. He might end up being pretty good if he's healthy.

[Spudboy]

HRam vs LHPs (should be a great platoon)

 

1.097 in 2016

.869 in 2014

1.142 in 2013

 

.897 career vs LHPs

.838 career vs RHPs

 

What about 2015 and 2017?

[Kimmi]

But if he's playing that well, the player would seem to have a grievance for not reaching his vesting option.

 

If he's playing that well, I don't have a problem with his option vesting.

 

If he's hitting well, he'll get the playing time. If he's not, he won't.

[moonslav59]

What about 2015 and 2017?

 

Lost seasons. Playing hurt both seasons.

 

Did poorly vs both handed pitchers- but better vs RHPs.

 

...........2015/2017

vs LHPs: .710/ .679

vs RHPs: .720/ .769

[mvp 78]

I hope Hanley rakes and his option vests, and I hope the Sox sign Buchholz to a minor league deal and he ends up becoming a regular starter in our rotation.

 

Just because.

 

Not nice.

[harmony]

The Red Sox and Mookie Betts reportedly have had (or are having) their arbitration hearing today:

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by harmony

[Kimmi]

Not nice.

 

But if those things happen, that means both players are playing well. Good for the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

But if those things happen, that means both players are playing well. Good for the Red Sox.

 

It might mean 6 pitchers and Moreland got hurt.

[Bellhorn04]

It might mean 6 pitchers and Moreland got hurt.

 

Now that's looking at the dark side...sometimes we won't tolerate someone else's optimism LOL

[moonslav59]

Now that's looking at the dark side...sometimes we won't tolerate someone else's optimism LOL

 

Why else would Buch be starting?

 

I can understand HRam doing so well, he gets the vesting option, but I'm thinking he still might not vest, even if he's doing well. (He may get injured for part of the season, or JD & Moreland might also do well, and squeeze him from enough PAs to vest.)

[Bellhorn04]

Why else would Buch be starting?

 

So what though...we all know it's normal for a team to use 7-10 starters in a season.

[moonslav59]

So what though...we all know it's normal for a team to use 7-10 starters in a season.

 

Maybe normal, but for most of our recent ring years, we got by with almost all our starts from 5-6 starters.

 

It's bad news, if Buch gets just one start. It will mean 2 guys got hurt and at least Velazquez and Johnson had bombed out.

[S5Dewey]

The Red Sox and Mookie Betts reportedly have had (or are having) their arbitration hearing today:

 

 

Copied and pasted from The Oklahoman, NewsOK

 

"Arbitrators Daniel Brent, Mark Burstein, Phillip LaPorte heard arguments Tuesday, and a decision is expected Wednesday."

[harmony]

Copied and pasted from The Oklahoman, NewsOK

 

"Arbitrators Daniel Brent, Mark Burstein, Phillip LaPorte heard arguments Tuesday, and a decision is expected Wednesday."

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2018/01/30/mookie-betts-red-sox-arbitration-case

[harmony]

ESPN offered this take on Red Sox manager Alex Cora:

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/53880/alex-cora-believes-managers-and-players-can-be-bffs-but-will-that-work-in-boston

[moonslav59]

Copied and pasted from The Oklahoman, NewsOK

 

"Arbitrators Daniel Brent, Mark Burstein, Phillip LaPorte heard arguments Tuesday, and a decision is expected Wednesday."

 

You mean we might actually get some legitimate Sox news tomorrow?

[Spudboy]

I'll say it again, the Sox have shot themselves in the foot trying to low-ball Betts.

 

Whatever happens with this case he most likely will remember it come contract time. I think he is gone at his first chance.

 

Just dumb business.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe normal, but for most of our recent ring years, we got by with almost all our starts from 5-6 starters.

 

It's bad news, if Buch gets just one start. It will mean 2 guys got hurt and at least Velazquez and Johnson had bombed out.

 

It might be bad news, but it's not necessarily bad news, let's put it that way.