A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

BP has finally released its standings predictions.

 

"Boston Red Sox projected to finish second in AL East with 87 wins, New York Yankees first with 96, per Baseball Prospectus"

 

 

Bell, you may officially begin to panic.

 

 

If it was the late Seventies, I'd be panicking. I was a very intense Sox fan back then and the Yankees were the evil overlords. I was there for 1978, which for me was the most intensely heartbreaking season in franchise history.

 

Now I think I'm much more matter-of-fact and unemotional about it all. Now I just think 'Well, I would really prefer to have a better record than the NYY at the end of the season, and if there's something we can do to improve our odds I'm in favor of it.'

[Bellhorn04]

I took that position with foresight, and I was right.

 

You took that position with a guess that was proven to be the correct one.

[a700hitter]

You took that position with a guess that was proven to be the correct one.

Stop the nonsense Bell. It wasn't a guess at all. Buch had a long track record of pitching left than half of a season even when he was performing well. At the end, the quality of his performance had become inconsistent. Being available for only half of a season and forcing the team to find a replacement made him not worth it in my opinion. Most importantly, his performance had deteriorated.

[dgalehouse]

If it was the late Seventies, I'd be panicking. I was a very intense Sox fan back then and the Yankees were the evil overlords. I was there for 1978, which for me was the most intensely heartbreaking season in franchise history.

 

Now I think I'm much more matter-of-fact and unemotional about it all. Now I just think 'Well, I would really prefer to have a better record than the NYY at the end of the season, and if there's something we can do to improve our odds I'm in favor of it.'

 

I feel pretty much the same. 1978 was devastating , and 1986 made me think that it was never going to happen. But 2004 changed all that. And 2007 and 2013 took any remaining anxiety away. I feel confident the Sox will win it all again , but the sense of urgency is no longer there. I think they will sign Martinez or else make another strong move , but I am not stressing over it . It will be a fun season regardless.

[Spudboy]

You took that position with a guess that was proven to be the correct one.

 

No, like many people, a700 saw Buch for what he actually was.

 

Not for someone with great top of the rotation stuff that was bound to be great eventually.

 

Buch was a waste of time and money much of the time.

[Bellhorn04]

No, like many people, a700 saw Buch for what he actually was.

 

Not for someone with great top of the rotation stuff that was bound to be great eventually.

 

Buch was a waste of time and money much of the time.

 

I actually used to argue with those who said exercising Buch's 2016 option was a no-brainer. I didn't agree with that either. To me it was a coin flip.

[Hitch]

By definition, any time you try to guess what is going to happen in the future, it's a guess. Even with data to draw your conclusions on. If we didn't have to guess we'd all be very rich.

[harmony]

By definition, any time you try to guess what is going to happen in the future, it's a guess. Even with data to draw your conclusions on. If we didn't have to guess we'd all be very rich.

FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan addresses the limitations of projections:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-make-sure-were-honest-about-projections/

[mvp 78]

Pedroia is not a negative OWAR batter. He has a negative OWAR because of his baserunning. MVP knows this.

 

Do DH's not run the bases?

[mvp 78]

I actually used to argue with those who said exercising Buch's 2016 option was a no-brainer. I didn't agree with that either. To me it was a coin flip.

 

If you have the payroll and an open spot, it wasn't a big deal two years ago. However, it would have been dumb to bring him back last year. The Sox were lucky enough to move him to Philly.

 

Remember that 2015 was his highest WAR season. He's always had an up and down career, but I believe that if he could have had back to back decent WAR years that he would have earned a good contract. He sucked in 2016 in the rotation and was marginally better in the pen. He's not worth $13M in the pen tho.

[a700hitter]

I actually used to argue with those who said exercising Buch's 2016 option was a no-brainer. I didn't agree with that either. To me it was a coin flip.

And you don’t spend $13 million on a coin flip. That was not a “guess”. It was correct when I took the position and proved to be right. It was no more of a “guess” than any projection of player performance by experts.

[Nick]

And you don’t spend $13 million on a coin flip. That was not a “guess”. It was correct when I took the position and proved to be right. It was no more of a “guess” than any projection of player performance by experts.

 

We definitely know the posters who thought "what's the big deal? it's only $13M". We're still boxed in sort of speak from Sandoval contract.

 

I get it that we have more resources than other teams. But without some control, ie luxury threshhold, we'll continue to spend unwisely.

 

We may go over the tax limit, but it better be a good buy.

 

PS. Say what you will about Moreland signing, from where I sit, if it prevents Hanley from gaining vesting rights for 2019 (and $22M), it's a good deal. On surfance his signing brings back entire starting lineup. It's a good place to

start. He will give us $6.5M value.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Nick

[mvp 78]

The best way to prevent Hanley from vesting is to sign JD and waive Hanley.

[Nick]

The best way to prevent Hanley from vesting is to sign JD and waive Hanley.

 

Are you serious? What makes you think another team will want his contract if we don't want it? If he clears waivers, then what are you going to do? Release him? A la Sandoval? Then another team picks him up for league minimum and we're stuck with his 2018 salary and assuming he gets enough at bats, we're stuck with his vesting option for 2019, $22M.

 

I'm not anti Hanley. I'm just looking ahead. Essentially I value Sale and Betts more than I value Hanley. I would like to add JD and/or Machada. Something has to go and I'm proposing Hanley's $22M for 2019, Porcello's $20M for 2019, Kimbrel's FA contract for 2019. It's about choices.

 

I think it's irresponsible to throw out signings, trades, FA acquisition without looking at the total picture.

 

My propsal allows us to pick up Machado, Sale and Betts for $30M, re-sign Pom or someone comparable for $25M. We'll need one young bat to emerge, a #5 starter to emerge and bullpen to be filled on the cheap.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Nick

[oldtimer]

We definitely know the posters who thought "what's the big deal? it's only $13M". We're still boxed in sort of speak from Sandoval contract.

 

I get it that we have more resources than other teams. But without some control, ie luxury threshhold, we'll continue to spend unwisely.

 

We may go over the tax limit, but it better be a good buy.

 

PS. Say what you will about Moreland signing, from where I sit, if it prevents Hanley from gaining vesting rights for 2019 (and $22M), it's a good deal. On surfance his signing brings back entire starting lineup. It's a good place to

start. He will give us $6.5M value.

 

The only key part of the lineup we are currently missing is Nunez and of course Pedey until he returns.

[Bellhorn04]

Are you serious? What makes you think another team will want his contract if we don't want it? If he clears waivers, then what are you going to do? Release him? A la Sandoval? Then another team picks him up for league minimum and we're stuck with his 2018 salary and assuming he gets enough at bats, we're stuck with his vesting option for 2019, $22M.

 

We're not stuck with the vesting option if he's released. The rest of what you said is the problem for us. I can just see some other AL East team picking him up and Hanley raking against us for 19 games while we pay him to do it.

[Nick]

We're not stuck with the vesting option if he's released. The rest of what you said is the problem for us. I can just see some other AL East team picking him up and Hanley raking against us for 19 games while we pay him to do it.

 

I apologize if I'm wrong but when do we have to release him? I'm thinking we should give him a platooning opportunity for 2018.

[mvp 78]

We're not stuck with the vesting option if he's released. The rest of what you said is the problem for us. I can just see some other AL East team picking him up and Hanley raking against us for 19 games while we pay him to do it.

 

Correct. To me, I'd rather him go play for the O's this year and rake than have to pay him a dime next season.

[Nick]

Correct. To me, I'd rather him go play for the O's this year and rake than have to pay him a dime next season.

 

My apologies.

 

I was thinking we should give him 400 at bats this year and let his contract die.

[mvp 78]

And still, THE BEST WAY TO HAVE HANLEY NOT GET HIS VESTING OPTION IS TO JUST NOT HAVE HIM PLAY FOR THE SOX THIS YEAR.

 

That's not really up for debate. Waiving him now automatically gets rid of him potentially earning that vesting option.

[mvp 78]

My apologies.

 

I was thinking we should give him 400 at bats this year and let his contract die.

 

My worry is that he plays well and the Sox prevent him from getting the option by 20 ab's or so. To me, I think Hanley would then have a legit gripe and could try to sue the Sox for the $20M. That would be a PR nightmare for the Sox and could hinder them signing FA's in the future.

 

My position has nothing to do with how well Hanley may or may not play this year.

[moonslav59]

If we're going to pay HRam $22M, we might as well see if the surgery helped. HRam is not far removed from some good to monstrously good seasons. He's been up and down much of the last few years, and this may end up being an up year.

 

Give him a shot. Make sure we have someone to legitimately take some of his ABs away, so he does not vest. If he's having a monster year, we may have to worry about the vest or upsetting him by benching him during a monster year, but that does not seem like a bad problem to have. His next winter trade value would be high after a monster year.

 

The only possible losing situation I see as a possibility is if he's doing pretty well and thinks he's doing better than management thinks, and we restrict his ABs leading to him pouting or complaining/distracting.

 

Signing JD, loMo or Duda should insure a legitimate reason to limit HRam's PAs, unless a 1Bman, DH or OF'er gets hurt..

[moonslav59]

My worry is that he plays well and the Sox prevent him from getting the option by 20 ab's or so. To me, I think Hanley would then have a legit gripe and could try to sue the Sox for the $20M.

 

This only happens, if HRam is doing great.

 

That should not be a bad thing.

[mvp 78]

If we're going to pay HRam $22M, we might as well see if the surgery helped.

 

It's a sunk cost. Just eat the one year salary at this point and move on.

[mvp 78]

This only happens, if HRam is doing great.

 

That should not be a bad thing.

 

The bad thing is if the Sox get into a legal situation with Hanley or if they have to pay him in 2019.

[moonslav59]

The bad thing is if the Sox get into a legal situation with Hanley or if they have to pay him in 2019.

 

He won't win, unless he doing great and we had no better option, and we denied him PAs.

 

If he's doing great, that's not bad.

 

If we sign a better DH option like JD FT or Duda vs RHPs, there's no way HRam can win a case.

 

Only an injur that forces JD to play OF or HRam to DH or play 1B could cause the vest.

[moonslav59]

It's a sunk cost. Just eat the one year salary at this point and move on.

 

There's no way we know, if the surgery helps.

 

It may end up being "sunk cost", and we can DFA him in May or June, if that happens.

 

It's not like we have some stud on the farm that HRam is keeping down.

 

There's no argument that Holt, Swihart, Marrero or Brentz is more deserving.

[moonslav59]

I can't wait till the first pitch of ST'ing- with or without JD.

[Spudboy]

I can't wait till the first pitch of ST'ing- with or without JD.

 

Amen.

[mvp 78]

I can't wait till the first pitch of ST'ing- with or without JD.

 

I welcome 2018 Pedro Ciriaco and other ST superstars that get me amped up.