2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[moonslav59]

Maybe DD views the following things as "adding to our pitching depth:"

 

1) The eventual return of Wright

2) Finally fixing ERod's knee issue once and for all (hopefully)

3) A full season from Carson Smith

4) Something from Thornburg

5) A full season from Workman

6) Maddox more of a known and available all season

7) Velazquez viewed as a better option than he was last Spring.

8) Johnson healthy to start the season.

9) Beeks closer to ML ready.

10) Kelly, Barnes, Scott and Hembree all showing better projections than they did last March.

 

Of course, nobody believes all of this will come out positive, but there is hope our staff will be better this year, even without any additions. Yes, one could argue our pen over performed last year and expecting it to do so again is nothing more than wishful thinking.

 

I'm optimistic. I wish we'd add a cheap vet to a minor league deal, but we have about $4M to spend, and we might be better served waiting to the deadline, when we can trade for a higher priced pitcher with a pro-rated cost to us and our tight budget.

 

Fister did a pretty good job for us last season, and he's gone now, but he was 5-9 with a 4.88 ERA. (We were 8-7 in his starts, though.)

 

Is this, as a whole, addition by subtraction?

 

IP Pitcher

90 Fister

58 Abad

41 Boyer

27 Reed

17 Taylor

9 R Ross

8 Kendrick

6 N Ramirez + Moreland

 

If we replace these 250+ innings with....

100+ more IP from Price

100+ more IP from Wright (or Workman/Scott)

50+ more IP from Smith and Thornburg

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I think Dave is not the guy to hang failures on at this point ...I blame coaching and the players more ...example Chili Davis and how he in my opinion neutered our lineup ...other opinion ...our supposed vet catcher Leon in my opinion sucks at calling some games too inconsistent ....Holt although a great person has no place on this roster.....Blake Swihart should be given the 2 catchers spot .now Dave ...Mitch is my only head scratch ...I would have gone in a different direction but understand why he did it.....The team could have really used a Molina the last two years for the staff ...but if we are going in this to win this ??? Go for Broke is all I ask Dave ....The window is now .The farm is light sure but we are maybe two pieces away....Empty it if need be ...then trade vets for prospects when it's shut .

 

By all accounts our staff (as a whole) over performed last year.

 

I blame Leon and Vaz and JF for that success.

 

(Note: it's one of the very few things I gave JF credit for.)

[notin]

I don't think that I give him too much credit. I honestly think that the items being whined about here are things that he is considering and trying to address. It doesn't take a great deal of intellect to recognize the needs of this team limited as they might be. I suppose that it is possible that with respect to adding starting pitching which seems to be the big bitch these days that he feels that our current in house guys might be as good as any that are affordable elsewhere.

 

Does he also know they will be healthy all year? The idea is depth here. To cover injuries. The more the better

...

[moonslav59]

I have NEVER volunteered to say anything about DD. I make my comment ONLY when others tear him down.

 

He's doing his job. Nothing more. Nothing less. I really don't want to talk about him. BUT I WILL DEFEND HIM WHEN HE'S UNDULY CRITICIZED.

 

Will you talk badly about him, if he is unduly credited or praised?

 

[Nick]

Will you talk badly about him, if he is unduly credited or praised?

 

 

I might.

 

It's also hard to give him too much credit when our luxury tax payroll is $230M.

[cp176]

Does he also know they will be healthy all year? The idea is depth here. To cover injuries. The more the better

...

 

I have 0 idea what DD might or might not know. It is possible I think that he is his own man and might not feel the same way about our pitching depth as you do.

[moonslav59]

I might.

 

It's also hard to give him too much credit when our luxury tax payroll is $230M.

 

See now? That wasn't so hard to do, was it?

 

[Hugh2]

It's really hard to attribute a certain level of credit to a G.M. Obviously there is more credit/blame to go there than anywhere else in the organization but it's still more complex than usually presented. Ben, for all his faults built up a good farm, and even Theos guys came into the system when he was assistant G.M. what level of influence did he have in those decisions?

 

His biggest folly, whether you want to blame him or the organization has a whole has been drafting and developing pitching. I'm not the biggest DD guy but one thing he has done is use the assets within this organization to build up the rotation and the bullpen. Yes, we have zero depth now, but that's because we have Sale, Pomeranz, Kimbrell, Smith etc. The farm is important but sometimes the point of having assets is to trade them for what you need.

 

I have no idea what DD's plan is, or to what level he has a plan this year but if you step back and look at this team as a whole it's blatantly obvious what he's done. He took a team that was rich in talent on one side of the ball and kept the young cost controlled MLB ready players, and he moved other assets to build up the other side of the ball. The results have been two straight division wins, and it looks like this team should be just as strong for at least another 2-3 years.

[Hugh2]

when calculating future payroll costs, keep in mind there are going to be pretty big arbitration jumps the next couple years.

[oldtimer]

when calculating future payroll costs, keep in mind there are going to be pretty big arbitration jumps the next couple years.

 

Yes, but we will also lose the cost of Sandoval at the end of next year and the Hanley cost is gone at the end of this year or next. Couple those with a few likely trades of our existing talent and we will have a little more flexibility although arbitrartion raises will eat up a good deal of those savings.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, but we will also lose the cost of Sandoval at the end of next year and the Hanley cost is gone at the end of this year or next. Couple those with a few likely trades of our existing talent and we will have a little more flexibility although arbitrartion raises will eat up a good deal of those savings.

 

Your payroll is cooked for the next 5 years assuming you keep the band together. Any savings from Hanley will be re-allocated towards arb raises and keeping/replacing Kimbrel and Pomeranz. Pablo's savings from the following year will be allocated towards re-signing/replacing Sale and the other arb raises as well. With JDM in the fold, I highly, highly doubt you can go much further in the "adding" phase. Now you are just trying to keep the band together

[Bellhorn04]

Your payroll is cooked for the next 5 years assuming you keep the band together. Any savings from Hanley will be re-allocated towards arb raises and keeping/replacing Kimbrel and Pomeranz. Pablo's savings from the following year will be allocated towards re-signing/replacing Sale and the other arb raises as well. With JDM in the fold, I highly, highly doubt you can go much further in the "adding" phase. Now you are just trying to keep the band together

 

All the more reason they might look to trade JBJ, and/or Bogaerts at some point. Although I don't know how they would replace Bogaerts.

[OH FOY]

Your payroll is cooked for the next 5 years assuming you keep the band together. Any savings from Hanley will be re-allocated towards arb raises and keeping/replacing Kimbrel and Pomeranz. Pablo's savings from the following year will be allocated towards re-signing/replacing Sale and the other arb raises as well. With JDM in the fold, I highly, highly doubt you can go much further in the "adding" phase. Now you are just trying to keep the band together

 

Good point, and the Farm is not going to help to bring the cost down. Your Yankees have talent in the Minors, and could do it right way, and stay away from FA's, if they produce. Sox Fans don't realize the Pitching talent that coming up, this scares me. Not only your Double AA team was strong last year, but your A+ Team was evaluated as the best arms, in that class.

Edited March 6, 2018 by OH FOY!

[a700hitter]

we are into the second full week of spring training games and there is an unbelievable number of unsigned free agents. One name is intriguing. I have read no rumors about John Lackey. Has he retired? Do we have the budget to give him a 1 year contract? He wouldn't be a bad #5 starter. Also, what do you think about R.A. Dickey?

[jacksonianmarch]

Lackey turns 40 during the playoffs, saw a velo drop last season and while his upper 4ERA was bad, his FIP was in the mid 5's. Granted, he did finish on a good not with a sub 4ERA after the ASB. I think Lackey would have to settle for a non guaranteed deal and after all the money he has made, I doubt he bites. He is one I would have squarely in the "retired" category. I don't think he loves it enough

[jacksonianmarch]

Good point, and the Farm is not going to help to bring the cost down. Your Yankees have talent in the Minors, and could do it right way, and stay away from FA's, if they produce. Sox Fans don't realize the Pitching talent that coming up, this scares me. Not only your Double AA team was strong last year, but your A+ Team was evaluated as the best arms, in that class.

 

Our pitching in the minors is impressive for sure and even with all the deals we made, we haven't really hit the near big league level arms.

[notin]

Your payroll is cooked for the next 5 years assuming you keep the band together. Any savings from Hanley will be re-allocated towards arb raises and keeping/replacing Kimbrel and Pomeranz. Pablo's savings from the following year will be allocated towards re-signing/replacing Sale and the other arb raises as well. With JDM in the fold, I highly, highly doubt you can go much further in the "adding" phase. Now you are just trying to keep the band together

 

Not if Martinez and Price opt out. Sure you can point out it's unlikely Price opts out, but it is still possible. Certainly not probable but definitely possible.

 

Martinez is certainly more likely.

 

And if Smith or Thornburg or another replaces Kimbrel, that eliminates that need.

 

It's actually possible that within two years, the Sox shed almost $120 mill in payroll. Although that number more likely is either about $63million or about $85mill, depending on Martinez. Especially if he wants to go somewhere where he can play the outfield.

 

That would leave the Sox needing a few players, but if this off-season is any indication, they might be cheaper to replace. ..

[mvp 78]

we are into the second full week of spring training games and there is an unbelievable number of unsigned free agents. One name is intriguing. I have read no rumors about John Lackey. Has he retired? Do we have the budget to give him a 1 year contract? He wouldn't be a bad #5 starter. Also, what do you think about R.A. Dickey?

 

Dickey is pretty awful. Lackey's velo was down across the board last year. Lots of garbage left over: Ubaldo, Hellickson, Peavy, Arrieta, Garza, etc.

 

I'd rather them make a splash with Lance Lynn.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker

[Bellhorn04]

Dickey is pretty awful. Lackey's velo was down across the board last year. Lots of garbage left over: Ubaldo, Hellickson, Peavy, Arrieta, Garza, etc.

 

I'd rather them make a splash with Lance Lynn.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker

 

Dickey's 2017 fWAR 1.6

Lynn's 2017 fWAR 1.4

[notin]

Dickey is pretty awful. Lackey's velo was down across the board last year. Lots of garbage left over: Ubaldo, Hellickson, Peavy, Arrieta, Garza, etc.

 

I'd rather them make a splash with Lance Lynn.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker

 

Did you just lump the 2015 NL Cy Young winner in with the garbage?

Edited March 6, 2018 by notin

[notin]

Dickey's 2017 fWAR 1.6

Lynn's 2017 fWAR 1.4

 

Brett Anderson was worth 0.8 fWAR in a mere 55 innings.

 

Of course talent was never the problem with Anderson. That he only threw 55 innings last year and shouldn't be expected for more is the problem. ..

[Spudboy]

Lackey turns 40 during the playoffs, saw a velo drop last season and while his upper 4ERA was bad, his FIP was in the mid 5's. Granted, he did finish on a good not with a sub 4ERA after the ASB. I think Lackey would have to settle for a non guaranteed deal and after all the money he has made, I doubt he bites. He is one I would have squarely in the "retired" category. I don't think he loves it enough

 

I suspect that he would not be willing to sign a minor contract for short money.

 

He likes to wear a feed bag too much.

[Spudboy]

So Ichiro is heading back to Seattle.

 

I think that is cool.

 

Imagine. He is 44 years old and still playing MLB.

[mvp 78]

Dickey's 2017 fWAR 1.6

Lynn's 2017 fWAR 1.4

 

He missed all of 2016. I'm betting that he returns to his 3+ fWAR totals going forward. Dickey hasn't had a 3 fWAR season since Obama's first term. I also trust the guy 13 years younger and have had my fill of knucklers.

[mvp 78]

So Ichiro is heading back to Seattle.

 

I think that is cool.

 

Imagine. He is 44 years old and still playing MLB.

 

The real hit king.

[mvp 78]

Did you just lump the 2015 NL Cy Young winner in with the garbage?

 

[a700hitter]

He missed all of 2016. I'm betting that he returns to his 3+ fWAR totals going forward. Dickey hasn't had a 3 fWAR season since Obama's first term. I also trust the guy 13 years younger and have had my fill of knucklers.

Lynn will probably still command a multi-year deal.

[Hugh2]

Yes, but we will also lose the cost of Sandoval at the end of next year and the Hanley cost is gone at the end of this year or next. Couple those with a few likely trades of our existing talent and we will have a little more flexibility although arbitrartion raises will eat up a good deal of those savings.

 

Trade away existing talent? Like who? we're already losing Kimbrel and Pomeranz at the end of this year, Sale and Porcello the year after next. There's no way we replace all this talent without staying over the luxury tax.

 

....Which I'm totally fine with by the way.

Edited March 6, 2018 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Bellhorn04]

Trade away existing talent? Like who? we're already losing Kimbrel and Pomeranz at the end of this year, Sale and Porcello the year after next. There's no way we replace all this talent without staying over the luxury tax.

 

....Which I'm totally fine with by the way.

 

It's possible they trade JBJ next offseason. He's got 2 arb years left.

[Kimmi]

I don't think that I give him too much credit. I honestly think that the items being whined about here are things that he is considering and trying to address. It doesn't take a great deal of intellect to recognize the needs of this team limited as they might be. I suppose that it is possible that with respect to adding starting pitching which seems to be the big bitch these days that he feels that our current in house guys might be as good as any that are affordable elsewhere.

 

Dombrowski knows what he is doing, no doubt. That doesn't mean we can't whine about it. That's what we do here. Not me of course. I don't whine.