Rafael Devers

[Kimmi]

I'm still not opposed to giving Travis a shot at 1B.

[moonslav59]

I'm still not opposed to giving Travis a shot at 1B.

 

I can't go with the idea of adding nothing more to the 1B mix than Travis/Swihart. I wouldn't even be okay with bringing Moreland back or signing Morrison and hoping lightening strikes twice for him.

 

If we added a DH like JD Martinez, maybe going with HRam and Travis/Swihart at 1B would be acceptable, but I'd still like to do better.

[mvp 78]

Why are you talking about Swihart? He's done here.

[moonslav59]

Why are you talking about Swihart? He's done here.

 

Look how long it took Pablo to actually be "done here".

[mvp 78]

Look how long it took Pablo to actually be "done here".

 

Swihart has a $20M/yr contract they are trying to force into the lineup?

[mvp 78]

I'm still not opposed to giving Travis a shot at 1B.

 

Travis? Yes!

 

Swihart? No!

[moonslav59]

Swihart has a $20M/yr contract they are trying to force into the lineup?

 

I doubt Swihart even makes the 25 man roster next year, and since he's out of options, so he'll be gone or on the DL.

 

I'm not writing him off though.

 

I seriously doubt we go into 2018 with Travis having a major role. Swihart has even less of a chance.

 

I'll be super pissed, if we do nothing about our 1B/DH situation this winter.

[Nick]

I doubt Swihart even makes the 25 man roster next year, and since he's out of options, so he'll be gone or on the DL.

 

I'm not writing him off though.

 

I seriously doubt we go into 2018 with Travis having a major role. Swihart has even less of a chance.

 

I'll be super pissed, if we do nothing about our 1B/DH situation this winter.

 

I think DD will go big somehow UNLESS WE WIN THE WORLD SERIES. Then he may do nothing more than to add smaller pieces. He may be patient in the winter and make a big move at trading deadline.

[Bellhorn04]

I think DD will go big somehow UNLESS WE WIN THE WORLD SERIES. Then he may do nothing more than to add smaller pieces. He may be patient in the winter and make a big move at trading deadline.

 

It's the weird rich dude with the pasty face that calls the shots on a lot of this. He's the one who ultimately tells DD how much DD has to spend.

[Slasher9]

I can't go with the idea of adding nothing more to the 1B mix than Travis/Swihart. I wouldn't even be okay with bringing Moreland back or signing Morrison and hoping lightening strikes twice for him.

 

If we added a DH like JD Martinez, maybe going with HRam and Travis/Swihart at 1B would be acceptable, but I'd still like to do better.

 

Moon - any "stud" first baseman will be FA after 2018 season? i would be OK with going hanram/shaw at 1st next year if need be and then make a splash at that position the following year when hanley is off the books (assuming he doesnt vest)...

[Nick]

Moon - any "stud" first baseman will be FA after 2018 season? i would be OK with going hanram/shaw at 1st next year if need be and then make a splash at that position the following year when hanley is off the books (assuming he doesnt vest)...

 

Lets' be real. Hanley will be vested for 2018 unless he gets hurt. He's already playing hurt. It was a bad contract and we will have to live with it. Moon will counter by saying he also has to pass a physical. It just sends a bad vibe throughout the league if we don't pay Hanley on 'technicality'.

 

He's accumulated 512 plate appearances to date. He needs 1050 over two years or 538 to go.

 

Are we now praying for Hanley to be hurt? Really?

 

I guess we can sign a DH and platoon him and play him only against left handers. Would players union have something to say about that? Aren't we breaking the spirit of the contract?

Edited September 8, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Moon - any "stud" first baseman will be FA after 2018 season? i would be OK with going hanram/shaw at 1st next year if need be and then make a splash at that position the following year when hanley is off the books (assuming he doesnt vest)...

 

You mean Travis not Shaw. I mess that up all the time, too.

 

I'd be fine with HRam/Travis at 1B, if we picked up a major bat at DH, but I feel like HRam is best suited for DH next year. IBTW, 'm not hoping for a HRam injury.

 

Possible 2019 FAs of interest:

 

1B: AGon, Joe Mauer, Matt Adams, Marwin Gonzalez, J Smoak

2B: B Dozier, D Murphy (Move Pedey to DH?)

SS: Segura, E Andrus (maybe), Iggy (Maybe trade Bogey?)

3B: Beltre, Donaldson, Machado (WOW- big 3 here! maybe move Devers to 1B?)

OF (DH): Bryce Harper- Adam Jones (move Beni to DH?), Markakis, N Cruz

Pence, Chisenhall,

SP: Keuchel, Pom, Ryu

 

 

[Slasher9]

You mean Travis not Shaw. I mess that up all the time, too.

 

I'd be fine with HRam/Travis at 1B, if we picked up a major bat at DH, but I feel like HRam is best suited for DH next year. IBTW, 'm not hoping for a HRam injury.

 

Possible 2019 FAs of interest:

 

1B: AGon, Joe Mauer, Matt Adams, Marwin Gonzalez, J Smoak

2B: B Dozier, D Murphy (Move Pedey to DH?)

SS: Segura, E Andrus (maybe), Iggy (Maybe trade Bogey?)

3B: Beltre, Donaldson, Machado (WOW- big 3 here! maybe move Devers to 1B?)

OF (DH): Bryce Harper- Adam Jones (move Beni to DH?), Markakis, N Cruz

Pence, Chisenhall,

SP: Keuchel, Pom, Ryu

 

 

 

meh. that FA class at 1b doesnt excite me. and yes, Travis. hopefully he grows into a power guy in the next year and can take the role fulltime in 2019.

also, FTR i am a big Hanley supporter. i hope he performs well next year. if he vests, he vests. i would bet he doesnt though....

[harmony]

You mean Travis not Shaw. I mess that up all the time, too.

 

I'd be fine with HRam/Travis at 1B, if we picked up a major bat at DH, but I feel like HRam is best suited for DH next year. IBTW, 'm not hoping for a HRam injury.

 

Possible 2019 FAs of interest:

 

1B: AGon, Joe Mauer, Matt Adams, Marwin Gonzalez, J Smoak

2B: B Dozier, D Murphy (Move Pedey to DH?)

SS: Segura, E Andrus (maybe), Iggy (Maybe trade Bogey?)

3B: Beltre, Donaldson, Machado (WOW- big 3 here! maybe move Devers to 1B?)

OF (DH): Bryce Harper- Adam Jones (move Beni to DH?), Markakis, N Cruz

Pence, Chisenhall,

SP: Keuchel, Pom, Ryu

Under a five-year, $70 million contract signed in June, Seattle shortstop Jean Segura remains under team control through the 2022 season with a team option for 2023.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/seattle-mariners/

[moonslav59]

Under a five-year, $70 million contract signed in June, Seattle shortstop Jean Segura remains under team control through the 2022 season with a team option for 2023.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/seattle-mariners/

 

Right. Cots has yet to update that page.

[moonslav59]

meh. that FA class at 1b doesnt excite me. and yes, Travis. hopefully he grows into a power guy in the next year and can take the role fulltime in 2019.

also, FTR i am a big Hanley supporter. i hope he performs well next year. if he vests, he vests. i would bet he doesnt though....

 

HRam has often been up and down. There's a significant chance he hits well next year, especially if he can get over his shoulder issues. If he's hitting well, I'm all for letting him play as much as needed, even if it triggers the vesting option, but if he's not, I hope we have acquired someone to squeeze him out of enough PAs to help the team win, and if that also means he misses the vesting option, so be it.

 

It would really help our team in 2019, if HRam was not part of it. He's 10% of our player payroll and a negative WAR right now.

 

[notin]

Agreed.

 

Unless we trade for a 1Bman, there's no FA 1bman equal to Moustakas.

 

Donaldson would likely cost much less than Votto or Stanton.

 

 

Overall the strategy should hopefully be to avoid the big money free agents. Just because the Sox are able to reset the Luxury Tax penalties doesn't mean they are reset forever.

 

Not to mention, free agency is such a losing venture. Basically it usually involves paying way too much money for what a player did on another team. Most free agents are on the wrong side of 30 and their better day are gone by.

 

Since the Sox signed Manny Ramirez to his deal in 2000, 17 years ago, who has been the most productive free agent this team has signed?

[moonslav59]

Overall the strategy should hopefully be to avoid the big money free agents. Just because the Sox are able to reset the Luxury Tax penalties doesn't mean they are reset forever.

 

Not to mention, free agency is such a losing venture. Basically it usually involves paying way too much money for what a player did on another team. Most free agents are on the wrong side of 30 and their better day are gone by.

 

Since the Sox signed Manny Ramirez to his deal in 2000, 17 years ago, who has been the most productive free agent this team has signed?

 

Maybe Lackey, even with the lost and putrid 2 years?

 

I get what you're saying and agree that most large and long FAs are busts or serious under-performers.

 

We all know, we will dip into the big FA signing again, so when I say, "sign Moustakas", I'm saying it in the context of that.

 

Just like Price: I was against signing him but knew we were going to sign a big pitcher, so I agreed he was the best of the ones available.

[notin]

Maybe Lackey, even with the lost and putrid 2 years?

 

I get what you're saying and agree that most large and long FAs are busts or serious under-performers.

 

We all know, we will dip into the big FA signing again, so when I say, "sign Moustakas", I'm saying it in the context of that.

 

Just like Price: I was against signing him but knew we were going to sign a big pitcher, so I agreed he was the best of the ones available.

 

Lackey is certainly a candidate for the best free agent signing since Manny. But that proves the point. He signed a 5 year deal, was awful for the first two, missed the third year altogether, and then bounced back nicely just in time to start working on his next contract. Is THAT the ceiling for free agency? Since Manny, the Sox have dropped about $1billion ( total guess with no real research, but probably not too unrealistic) on free agents with very limited results...

[oldtimer]

HRam has often been up and down. There's a significant chance he hits well next year, especially if he can get over his shoulder issues. If he's hitting well, I'm all for letting him play as much as needed, even if it triggers the vesting option, but if he's not, I hope we have acquired someone to squeeze him out of enough PAs to help the team win, and if that also means he misses the vesting option, so be it.

 

It would really help our team in 2019, if HRam was not part of it. He's 10% of our player payroll and a negative WAR right now.

 

 

There will be enormous competiition to sign both Machado and Harper from the FA market to play in 2019. Machado is intriguing, since he can play 3rd base and possibly SS. That would give us some flexibility is structuring our team. Harper is another who will be greatly sought after. Either would come in a possibly replace a starter that we currently have in our lineup. To be competiitive, it would be a help to have rid ourselves of a $22.7 million salary who as you say has a negative WAR value. I would also hope the medical staff can get Price back to a sound condition so he can opt out of his $127 million that remains. Shedding over $50 million a year being paid to unproductive or underproductive players would allow us to be fully competitive in the FA market.

[harmony]

There will be enormous competiition to sign both Machado and Harper from the FA market to play in 2019. Machado is intriguing, since he can play 3rd base and possibly SS. That would give us some flexibility is structuring our team. Harper is another who will be greatly sought after. Either would come in a possibly replace a starter that we currently have in our lineup. To be competiitive, it would be a help to have rid ourselves of a $22.7 million salary who as you say has a negative WAR value. I would also hope the medical staff can get Price back to a sound condition so he can opt out of his $127 million that remains. Shedding over $50 million a year being paid to unproductive or underproductive players would allow us to be fully competitive in the FA market.

The difficulty is shedding the salaries of highly paid unproductive or underproductive players.

 

Most teams could be more competitive in the free agent market if only they could shed highly paid unproductive players.

[bosoxmal]

I jumped in here, because the thead was about Devers. Ah, well.

 

Talk all we want about has-been free agents, but unless I'm way off base, I will say that toung Devers will be the highest pai position player on this team. Or should be! This is the best prospect the Red Sox have had since they smuggled Teddy out of California!

[moonslav59]

Lackey is certainly a candidate for the best free agent signing since Manny. But that proves the point. He signed a 5 year deal, was awful for the first two, missed the third year altogether, and then bounced back nicely just in time to start working on his next contract. Is THAT the ceiling for free agency? Since Manny, the Sox have dropped about $1billion ( total guess with no real research, but probably not too unrealistic) on free agents with very limited results...

 

Preaching to the choir.

 

Many of our shorter deals have done much better: Cody Ross, Adrian Beltre, early Vic and Naps. Many have flopped (Masterson, AJ P...) but the percent of success has clearly been better with short term deals.

 

You'd think all the failure would be enough to deter future mistakes. Even the two "successes", Manny & Lackey, ended up being dumped, and had serious issues along the way. I counted 3 year deals, but they really aren't "long term".

 

In the past, I have posted a list of all the biggest FA signings since the late 90's. Almost all of them were busts, big disappointments or mediocre at best- several right from day 1. Here's a look at just the largest Sox signings since Jose Offerman.

 

1999:

Jose Offerman (4)- Total bust, except for maybe year 1.

 

2001:

Manny (8)- Great signing. Even with the eventful ending, we ended up getting Jason Bay in trade.

 

2002:

Johnny Damon (4): Great signing.

 

2003:

Foulke (3): He had one great year and it helped us win our first long-awaited ring.

 

2005:

Renteria (4): He was not anywhere near what we expected, and ended up essentially paying him $40M for one year when factoring in the trade.

 

Matt Clement (3)- Injury surely played a role in this disappointment, but nevertheless, it was a let down.

 

2007:

Dice-K (6)- Had a couple decent years, but was a bust afterfwards.

 

Julio Lugo (4)- Total bust.

 

JD Drew (5)- Much debate over the value of this signing.

 

2008:

Lowell (Re-sign 3)- Did not end well.

 

2010:

Lackey (5)- 2 bad/2 good/1 traded

 

2011:

Crawford (7)- IMO, the worst Sox signing of all time.

 

Beckett (Re-sign 4)- Big mistake. Lucky we could dump him.

 

2012:

AGon (Re-sign 7)- Traded to LAD in order to dump CC & Beckett.

 

2013:

Vic (3)- One great year 9ring) then kaput..

 

2014:

Pablo (5)- Easily one of the worst 2 signings in Sox history.

 

HRam (4-5)- Not good.

 

R Castillo (7)- Yuck!

 

2016:

Price (7)- So far, so bad.

 

Porcello (Re-sign 4)- Won a Cy Young, but jury still out.

 

 

I might have missed a few signings.

 

[Spudboy]

HRam has often been up and down. There's a significant chance he hits well next year, especially if he can get over his shoulder issues. If he's hitting well, I'm all for letting him play as much as needed, even if it triggers the vesting option, but if he's not, I hope we have acquired someone to squeeze him out of enough PAs to help the team win, and if that also means he misses the vesting option, so be it.

 

It would really help our team in 2019, if HRam was not part of it. He's 10% of our player payroll and a negative WAR right now.

 

 

I don't see why you believe there is a good chance Hanley will hit better next year. He will be a year older and he shows no signs of a resurgence. How long does it take for a sore shoulder to mend? we are going on the third year now.

 

I say dump the sloth when the time comes.

[Nick]

Bottom line is as long as we can put out 5 quality pitchers out there then we'll be competitive. Our bullpen should be fine with Carson Smith returning and plethora of candidates in our farm system.

 

I think Price will be back after winter's rest. Porcello costs us $20M but at least he gives us innings. I don't see Pom going backwards. It's his pre-FA year. E Rod again needs to stay healthy. Sale's guy should be adequate. We need to pick up a depth piece or two over the winter.

 

Now if I'm going ALL in and going stupid, I'd get Stanton and Votto. Only because I WANT TO BE ENTERTAINED.

[Nick]

Castillo signing was so bad that it hasn't cost us anything. Just Henry's wallet. Absolutely no impact on 'major league operational payroll'

[Spudboy]

Has anyone else noticed Dever's odd gait while running? He runs like Boog Powell with his chest all distended.

 

It's no big deal, really.

 

He just looks funky to me.

 

Don't get me started on those chipmunk cheeks.

[mvp 78]

Has anyone else noticed Dever's odd gait while running? He runs like Boog Powell with his chest all distended.

 

It's no big deal, really.

 

He just looks funky to me.

 

Don't get me started on those chipmunk cheeks.

 

He's one of the fastest guys on the team.

[moonslav59]

I don't see why you believe there is a good chance Hanley will hit better next year. He will be a year older and he shows no signs of a resurgence. How long does it take for a sore shoulder to mend? we are going on the third year now.

 

I say dump the sloth when the time comes.

 

I'm not against dumping him, if we can save $10M or so.

 

BTW, I said (if healthy) "a significant chance" not "good chance". To me, 33% chance is significant and that might be worth a $10M gamble, assuming we could trade him and "save" $10M.

 

HRam's career has been very up and down, almost year to year. He's been hurt many of his down years have been while playing hurt.

 

Who expected a 150 point gain from 2015 to 2016 at age 31 and 32?

 

I'm not expecting an improvement, but I do feel he has been playing hurt and could be better next year.

 

HRam's OPS in recent years going backwards from this year:

 

.759 (not horrible)

.866

.717 (clearly playing hurt)

.817

1.040 (half season due to injury)

.759

.712 (missed half the season)

.853

.954 (2009)

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Castillo signing was so bad that it hasn't cost us anything. Just Henry's wallet. Absolutely no impact on 'major league operational payroll'

 

Maybe not much, but that $11M a year has probably restricted spending a little bit, IMO.