Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Naps was a pioneer for the current crop of 'swing hard in case you hit it' types.

 

Quite different from Ted Williams' mantra "swing hard but make sure you hit it."

[Natick to NC]

One could argue that Moon has made a case that JBJ stock has never been higher.

[Bellhorn04]

One could argue that Moon has made a case that JBJ stock has never been higher.

 

His stock would get even higher if he stays hot a few more weeks.

[cp176]

Hitting the ball hard is the best indicator of getting hits in generally. There is luck involved anyway

 

That is for sure a good point but in JBJ's case the issue for the most part is that he just hasn't hit the ball all that often. Kind of seems that he has always swung pretty hard - maybe to hard. If he can continues to hit the ball where the opposition is not playing then he will be fine whether he hits it hard or not.

[moonslav59]

Those stats are select. If you break them down by the month, he is consistently bad for most months, BUT always seems to have 1 good, and 1 great month.

 

Okay, let's take a closer look at JBJ since AUG of 2015.

 

Red: Hard Hit% under 30%/ OPS around .650 or below

Blue: hard hit % above 33%/ OPS above .730

JBJ

Month:Hard Hit% / OPS

8/15 39%/ 1.163

9/15 31%/ .736

4/16 38%/ .807

5/16 39%/ 1.175

6/16 39%/ .805

7/16 35%/ .839

8/16 31%/ .651

9/16 34%/ .731

4/17 44%/ .596

5/17 30%/ .808

6/17 41%/ 1.009

7/17 36%/ .596

8/17 28%/ .770

9/17 23%/ .517

4/18 33%/ .600

5/18 32%/ .599

6/18 44%/ .677

 

Let's use Bogey as a comp

8/15 26%/ .761

9/15 37%/ .876

4/16 30%/ .785

5/16 35%/ 1.017

6/16 29%/ .815

7/16 29%/ .830

8/16 28%/ .599

9/16 33%/ .750

4/17 22%/ .731

5/17 34%/ .949

6/17 39%/ .763

7/17 25%/ .452

8/17 24%/ .683

9/17 38%/ .803

4/18 28%/ 1.171

5/18 42%/ .705

6/18 39%/ .855

 

Here's what I find interesting and perhaps unexplained:

 

Both had 7 months where their hard hit% was good (blue) and their OPS was good (blue), but then it gets wacky.

 

Bogey has 4 months where he did not hit the ball hard (red) but had a good OPS (blue)- JBJ just 1.

 

Bogey had zero months where he hit the ball hard (blue) or so-so (black) and had a bad OPS (red), yet JBJ had 5!

 

This is amazingly bad luck or something I am missing

 

 

The other thing to notice from this data is this:

 

Months that JBJ's monthly OPS since Aug 2015 was...

 

3- 1.000+

0- .840 to .999

5- .770 to .839

3- .677 to .736

5- .596 to .651

1-- at .517

 

8 months over .770

3 months .675 to .770

6 below .651

 

11 out of 17 months, he's been over .677. It seems like he's had more bad months than this.

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

He is striking out too much ... but the contact he has made has been good, better than a year ago. The expected results are better than actual - so the forward-looking expectation is that if this keeps up, the improvement will continue. So much of baseball is governed by dumb luck, it is silly to pretend otherwise.

 

You really ought to post more often sk.

 

Your posts are must read.

[SoxHop]

You really ought to post more often sk.

 

Your posts are must read.

 

I'm with Kimmi on this one.

[Station 13]

That is for sure a good point but in JBJ's case the issue for the most part is that he just hasn't hit the ball all that often. Kind of seems that he has always swung pretty hard - maybe to hard. If he can continues to hit the ball where the opposition is not playing then he will be fine whether he hits it hard or not.

 

He has to think opposite field if he wants to start in the future. His BA is suffer a lot hitting into shifts.

[moonslav59]

He has to think opposite field if he wants to start in the future. His BA is suffer a lot hitting into shifts.

 

If he hits .700 from now to the end of the year, he's a sure plus going forward- a sure starter somewhere next year. That's not changing anything.

 

I do agree, he'd probably greatly benefit by changing his approach, but we don't know this. It could mess him up totally by trying.

 

[cp176]

He has to think opposite field if he wants to start in the future. His BA is suffer a lot hitting into shifts.

 

I wish that he had that kind of bat control. It sounds good that he has been making solid contact but at the end of the day if those balls don't find some holes they don't amount to much of anything. If he was a 30-40 homers guy, then sure but he isn't.

[Kimmi]

I wish that he had that kind of bat control. It sounds good that he has been making solid contact but at the end of the day if those balls don't find some holes they don't amount to much of anything. If he was a 30-40 homers guy, then sure but he isn't.

 

Making solid contact and hitting the ball hard is what you want to do. Whether the ball finds a hole or not is mostly random luck. Yes, he strikes out more than we'd like, but as far as the balls that he does make contact with, you really can't ask for him to do much more.

[cp176]

Making solid contact and hitting the ball hard is what you want to do. Whether the ball finds a hole or not is mostly random luck. Yes, he strikes out more than we'd like, but as far as the balls that he does make contact with, you really can't ask for him to do much more.

 

I understand what you are saying. Everyone wants to hit the ball hard for sure. I might be asking too much also but when you are hitting as poorly as he is, maybe just attempting to make a little contact would be a good thing. Bat control, hitting to the opposite field now and then - those still are good things. I like JBJ very much but if his hard hit balls wind up consistently being caught, maybe he should even try to bunt for a hit. I'm very results oriented and sadly if he does not hit going forward better than he has to date, he very likely will be traded if some team is willing to do business. This won't make me happy but might just be the way it goes.

[cp176]

I understand what you are saying. Everyone wants to hit the ball hard for sure. I might be asking too much also but when you are hitting as poorly as he is, maybe just attempting to make a little contact would be a good thing. Bat control, hitting to the opposite field now and then - those still are good things. I like JBJ very much but if his hard hit balls wind up consistently being caught, maybe he should even try to bunt for a hit. I'm very results oriented and sadly if he does not hit going forward better than he has to date, he very likely will be traded if some team is willing to do business. This won't make me happy but might just be the way it goes.

 

Well - maybe if he keeps making plays like that last one, hitting .200 ain't that bad! lol

[Natick to NC]

Myyyyyy God he's the best CF I've ever seen he's just freaking Amazing LmAO WOw !!!

[sk7326]

Naps was a pioneer for the current crop of 'swing hard in case you hit it' types.

 

You spelled Adam Dunn wrong

[Bellhorn04]

You spelled Adam Dunn wrong

 

Well played.

[Kimmi]

I understand what you are saying. Everyone wants to hit the ball hard for sure. I might be asking too much also but when you are hitting as poorly as he is, maybe just attempting to make a little contact would be a good thing. Bat control, hitting to the opposite field now and then - those still are good things. I like JBJ very much but if his hard hit balls wind up consistently being caught, maybe he should even try to bunt for a hit. I'm very results oriented and sadly if he does not hit going forward better than he has to date, he very likely will be traded if some team is willing to do business. This won't make me happy but might just be the way it goes.

 

I do not disagree with you on the idea of trying to bunt for a hit every now and then. Also, about going to the opposite field now and then. That said, Jackie's first at bat last night was a pretty well hit ball to LF that was caught for Gardner.

 

My point is that he is not getting outs by way of weak ground balls or pop ups. He is making solid contact and getting unlucky. The latter bodes much better for Jackie than the former. Good things are coming for Jackie.

[Kimmi]

You spelled Adam Dunn wrong

 

Haha! Good one.

[S5Dewey]

I do not disagree with you on the idea of trying to bunt for a hit every now and then. Also, about going to the opposite field now and then. That said, Jackie's first at bat last night was a pretty well hit ball to LF that was caught for Gardner.

 

My point is that he is not getting outs by way of weak ground balls or pop ups. He is making solid contact and getting unlucky. The latter bodes much better for Jackie than the former. Good things are coming for Jackie.

 

Also, on Friday the pitch before the one he hit for the HR was on the outside of the plate and he fouled it off to the left. Then the HR ball was slightly inside of the center of the plate and he hit it out. He's now doing more of hitting the ball where it's pitched.

[Bellhorn04]

That was a phenomenal catch last night. One of the key things that a great fielder can do that sometimes gets overlooked is to be able to make a catch like that without getting injured. I love the way JBJ flicked the glove back toward himself as soon as the ball was in it.

[S5Dewey]

That was a phenomenal catch last night. One of the key things that a great fielder can do that sometimes gets overlooked is to be able to make a catch like that without getting injured. I love the way JBJ flicked the glove back toward himself as soon as the ball was in it.

 

Ya. The ball was high up in the webbing of his glove and once he hit the ground he allowed it to come down nearer the palm .

[a700hitter]

Ya. The ball was high up in the webbing of his glove and once he hit the ground he allowed it to come down nearer the palm .

When Bradley slumped down after that catch, I wasn't sure if he had caught it. Normally, after a catch like that, the fielder pops up and holds out the ball for all to see and to take a bow.

[S5Dewey]

When Bradley slumped down after that catch, I wasn't sure if he had caught it. Normally, after a catch like that, the fielder pops up and holds out the ball for all to see and to take a bow.

 

I was confident that he had the ball. I was just afraid he was going to drop it when he allowed it to come back down into the glove and some dumb-ass umpire would rule it 'no catch'.

[moonslav59]

That was a phenomenal catch last night. One of the key things that a great fielder can do that sometimes gets overlooked is to be able to make a catch like that without getting injured. I love the way JBJ flicked the glove back toward himself as soon as the ball was in it.

 

I thought the same exact thing. After the ball got in his glove, he kind of hunched his shoulder inward to lessen the impact of his back against the wall. He is truly a marvel out there on defense.

 

I hope people are realizing that it is possible for a great defender to take a hit (some doubles, triple and even HRs) away from the opponents maybe once every 2-3 games. It seems like JBJ does it nearly every game with sometimes multiple take-aways per game! I'm thinking over 150 games, JBJ might take away 60 singles, 12 doubles, 2 triples and 1 HR. That's 94 total bases over 150 games. Even if it's more like 75 total bases per 150, think how much that makes up for long, poor stretches on offense. If you added 50 singles, 11 dbls and 1 HR to his offensive line. Even adding half of that would make him one of the best offensive players in MLB.

 

Add just 40 hits (30 singles, 8 dbls, 1 trpl, 1 HR) to last year's numbers and we have this...

 

.329 BA

 

.397 OBP

 

.512 SLG

 

.909 OPS

 

Nobody would be complaining, except maybe natick.

 

[oldtimer]

I thought the same exact thing. After the ball got in his glove, he kind of hunched his shoulder inward to lessen the impact of his back against the wall. He is truly a marvel out there on defense.

 

I hope people are realizing that it is possible for a great defender to take a hit (some doubles, triple and even HRs) away from the opponents maybe once every 2-3 games. It seems like JBJ does it nearly every game with sometimes multiple take-aways per game! I'm thinking over 150 games, JBJ might take away 60 singles, 12 doubles, 2 triples and 1 HR. That's 94 total bases over 150 games. Even if it's more like 75 total bases per 150, think how much that makes up for long, poor stretches on offense. If you added 50 singles, 11 dbls and 1 HR to his offensive line. Even adding half of that would make him one of the best offensive players in MLB.

 

Add just 40 hits (30 singles, 8 dbls, 1 trpl, 1 HR) to last year's numbers and we have this...

 

.329 BA

 

.397 OBP

 

.512 SLG

 

.909 OPS

 

Nobody would be complaining, except maybe natick.

 

 

I don't think that is the correct way to think about it. a better way might be what does he take away compared to the average defensive CF we might have. Certainly he doesn't make plays the average wuldn't make several times a game. He is exceptional so I would expect an advantage over an average guy but it is easy get carried away with the hype.

[Spudboy]

I was confident that he had the ball. I was just afraid he was going to drop it when he allowed it to come back down into the glove and some dumb-ass umpire would rule it 'no catch'.

 

I was afraid that he was jolted by impact and hurt his back when he sat there for a moment. Today I saw a clip of Mookie after that play. He was miked-up. He said" You're a bad man. A bad man".

 

JBJ also ran well last night.

 

You can't say that about many Sox players very often.

[moonslav59]

I don't think that is the correct way to think about it. a better way might be what does he take away compared to the average defensive CF we might have. Certainly he doesn't make plays the average wuldn't make several times a game. He is exceptional so I would expect an advantage over an average guy but it is easy get carried away with the hype.

 

I don't think taking away 40 hits over "the average" CF'er is a stretch.

 

True, many CF'ers "take some hits away every year. Some take more away than they give up.

[moonslav59]

I was afraid that he was jolted by impact and hurt his back when he sat there for a moment. Today I saw a clip of Mookie after that play. He was miked-up. He said" You're a bad man. A bad man".

 

JBJ also ran well last night.

 

You can't say that about many Sox players very often.

 

No, you can't.

 

Here's how fangraphs values base running by Sox players this year:

 

+3.6 Beni

+3.2 Devers

+3.1 JBJ

+2.8 Betts

 

+0.9 Bogey

-0.3 Leon

 

-1.1 Vaz

-1.5 JD

-1.5 Holt

 

-2.5 Moreland

 

-5.0 Nunez

 

Since 2016 (More games played for the Sox adds to the total.)

 

22.7 Betts

15.1 Bogey

13.2 JBJ

5.9 beni

3.4 Devers

-0.7 Holt

-1.5 JD

-4.5 Vaz

-5.0Moreland

-5.2 Leon

-5.4 Nunez

-9.0 Pedey

 

 

[moonslav59]

2018 AL Leaders in Base Running

 

4.5 J Ramirez

3.8 Merrifield

3.7 Rosario

3.6 gardner

3.6 Beni

3.5 Gordon

3.3 DeShields

3.2 Devers

3.1 Pillar

3.1 JBJ

2.8 Trout

2.8 Altuve

2.8 Betts

 

4 in the top 12 is pretty awesome.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

You spelled Adam Dunn wrong

 

Napoli and Dunn both have the same career WAR