Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[SoxHop]

How about JBJ, Swihart, and Beeks for Mike Trout?

 

/ducks and runs

 

That cracked me up also........ nice timing...

[S5Dewey]

It's important to keep the big picture in mind. The sox have a lot of players who are going to require a lot of money in the not too distant future, JBJ is not one of them. Whether you think defense is overrated or underrated(like me) it isn't something that you have to pay big contracts for. In addition defense does not vary from year to year like hitting does for a lot of players. Pencil JBJ in for the next 5-10 years at CF, you get solid defense and maybe occasional offense at somewhere in the $10M per year range.

 

This is a great post in that it keeps the whole offense/defense/salary post in perspective.

 

I know we'd all like to have an OPS of >.900 at all positions but if you can get great defense at CF and an OPS ~.650 or greater for $10M/yr that's not unreasonable in today's market. A team can't afford that at every position but a team can carry one (or two) of those guys if their defense is stellar and the rest of the team can pick up the slack. In the case of JBJ we know the potential is there for an OPS >.800 because we've seen him hit like that.

 

I really dislike this thread and always have because it continually brings JBJ's shortcoming to the top of the thread list while ignoring his huge upside.

[moonslav59]

This thread has given the JBJ and great defense defenders an opportunity to make our points.

 

At $6.1M JBJ is still a plus. If he can get his OPS to .650, he'd be a significant plus. Maybe his low OPS numbers will keep his arb raises down.

[dgalehouse]

The best thing about JBJ heating up is that it may put an end to this ultra long , repetitive and redundant debate. Edited June 28, 2018 by dgalehouse

[mvp 78]

The best thing about JBJ heating up is that it may put an end to this ultra long , repetitive and redundant debate.

 

You know this isn't true. We'll be back at it once he starts slumping 27 days from now.

[moonslav59]

Current fWAR numbers:

 

4.6 Betts

3.2 JD

2.9 Beni

2.4 Bogey

1.5 Moreland

0.9 Holt

0.8 Devers

0.5 JBJ

0.3 Leon

-0.1 Ramirez

-0.2Lin

-0.3 Vaz

-0.5 Nunez

-0.6 Swihart

 

NYY

3.8 Judge

2.4 Stanton

2.4 Gregorius

2.0 Hicks

1.9 Gardner

1.3 Sanchez

1.2 Torres

0.8 Romine

0.8 Andujar

0.6 Torreyes

0.2 Birs

0.2 Frazier

0.1 Austin

-0,1 Drury

-0.5 Wade

-1.0 Walker

 

Pitching

 

Boston

3.6 Sale

2.0 Porcello

1.7 Price

1.4 ERod

0.3 Johnson

0.1 Wright

-0.1 Pom

 

0.9 Barnes

0.8 Kimbrel

0.5 Kelly

0.4 Velazquez

0.4 Hembree

0.3 Poyner

0.2 Walden

0.1 Smith

 

NYY

4.2 Severino

1.1 Sab

1.0 Gray

0.7 German

0.5 Loaisiga

0.5 Tanaka

0.2 Montgomery

 

1.6 Chapman

1.2 Green

1.0 Robertson

0.8 Holder

0.8 Betances

0.2 Warren

0.1 Cole

-0.4 Shreve

[moonslav59]

Current fWAR numbers:

 

4.6 Betts

3.2 JD

2.9 Beni

2.4 Bogey

1.5 Moreland

0.9 Holt

0.8 Devers

0.5 JBJ

0.3 Leon

-0.1 Ramirez

-0.2Lin

-0.3 Vaz

-0.5 Nunez

-0.6 Swihart

 

NYY

3.8 Judge

2.4 Stanton

2.4 Gregorius

2.0 Hicks

1.9 Gardner

1.3 Sanchez

1.2 Torres

0.8 Romine

0.8 Andujar

0.6 Torreyes

0.2 Birs

0.2 Frazier

0.1 Austin

-0,1 Drury

-0.5 Wade

-1.0 Walker

 

Pitching

 

Boston

3.6 Sale

2.0 Porcello

1.7 Price

1.4 ERod

0.3 Johnson

0.1 Wright

-0.1 Pom

 

0.9 Barnes

0.8 Kimbrel

0.5 Kelly

0.4 Velazquez

0.4 Hembree

0.3 Poyner

0.2 Walden

0.1 Smith

 

NYY

4.2 Severino

1.1 Sab

1.0 Gray

0.7 German

0.5 Loaisiga

0.5 Tanaka

0.2 Montgomery

 

1.6 Chapman

1.2 Green

1.0 Robertson

0.8 Holder

0.8 Betances

0.2 Warren

0.1 Cole

-0.4 Shreve

 

Top 3 SP combined WAR

7.3 BOS

6.3 NYY

 

Top 4

8.7 BOS

7.0 NYY

 

Top 4 Pen

4.6 NYY

2.6 BOS

 

Top 5 pen

5.4 NYY

3.0 BOS

[FredLynn]

Top 3 SP combined WAR

7.3 BOS

6.3 NYY

 

Top 4

8.7 BOS

7.0 NYY

 

Top 4 Pen

4.6 NYY

2.6 BOS

 

Top 5 pen

5.4 NYY

3.0 BOS

 

Since Smith self-destructed and Thornburg has fizzled out one more reliable pen arm would probably help.

[moonslav59]

Since Smith self-destructed and Thornburg has fizzled out one more reliable pen arm would probably help.

 

I agree, and the best part about getting a solid #2 RP'er is that it pushes everyone but Kimbrel down a notch.

 

Kimbrel

______

Kelly

Barnes

Hembree

Workman

Wright or Pom

Velzquez/Poyner/Walden/Scott/Haley/Beeks

 

 

[notin]

The best thing about JBJ heating up is that it may put an end to this ultra long , repetitive and redundant debate.

 

No it won't. But it will postpone it until his next slump...

[cp176]

Last night's HR for JBJ was a virtual rocket. Keep it up and keep making those plays you make.

[moonslav59]

I'm no expert on swing analysis, but I'll say it again, I love JBJ's swing despite it being a bit too long and loopy, and I don't really see any difference in his swing now vs, when he is slumping.

 

He's just making more and harder contact now.

 

(Just my opinion.)

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

How about JBJ, Swihart, and Beeks for Mike Trout?

 

/ducks and runs

 

Having JBJ in that package would give the Angels' GM some pause before he said no. About a second.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Having JBJ in that package would give the Angels' GM some pause before he said no. About a second.

 

Actually the pause would be longer because there would be 5 minutes of laughter before the GM said no.

[sk7326]

I'm no expert on swing analysis, but I'll say it again, I love JBJ's swing despite it being a bit too long and loopy, and I don't really see any difference in his swing now vs, when he is slumping.

 

He's just making more and harder contact now.

 

(Just my opinion.)

 

the batted ball stats back it up. He's actually made the same changes Bogaerts has. Playing for power more, getting more lift. The results have only started to come around, but his batted ball profile is significantly healthier than it was last year.

[moonslav59]

Last 30 Days

 

Hard Hit%

45 JBJ

43 JD

43 Vaz

40 Moreland

39 Bogey

38 Betts

37 Leon

35 Devers

30 Beni

29 Holt

28 Nunez

 

Medium + hard hit %

 

93 Leon

89 JBJ

87 Betts

87 Moreland

84 Bogey

84 JD

84 Beni

81 Holt

79 Vaz

75 Devers

74 Nunez

 

[Sox75]

the batted ball stats back it up. He's actually made the same changes Bogaerts has. Playing for power more, getting more lift. The results have only started to come around, but his batted ball profile is significantly healthier than it was last year.

 

I'm sorry guys, but this is just flat ********.

 

JBJ flat out hasn't been able to read the breaking stuff because he often does not keep his head on the ball. I don't believe he has a great eye for the ball in general??? His swing is not bad, but he swings for the fences on every pitch, with zero adjustments at the plate. In general..... he swings from his arcs, his head and shoulders pull, and he consistently swings over the breaking stuff inside. He misses on the outside heat because his head does not stay on the ball.

 

It hasn't been bad luck, it's s***** plate discipline.

 

Now..... I LIKE JBJ, and refuse to give up on him! I believe he has the tools to be VERY GOOD, and always a GG CF'r!!!! But, I'm not buying into this absurd narrative as of late. As some of you are recently using select power hitting stats, ALL THE OTHER NUMBERS don't lie.

Now.... because he's so strong, especially in the legs, but he's no Piker upstairs either, he hits the ball hard!!!! Problem is, he rarely knows where it's going.

 

Inexplicably, he does come onto a 1 month LOCKED IN zone each year. It's perplexing!!! Absolutely perplexing!!! But these excuses are frankly ridiculous. History does not lie! He simply IS NOT the only MLB player with a great swing, good plate discipling, good head discipline, & s***** bad luck. Believing this is like believing in Santa Clause.

Edited June 29, 2018 by Sox75

[cp176]

I'm really happy that people here spin a positive out of JBJ's hard contact. I think that that is just wonderful but to me it becomes far more significant when the ball winds up where someone can't catch it. I do agree though that it makes things sound better and probably gives a person hope when someone actually hits the ball . Lately he has been hitting the ball where people aren't consistently playing. If its luck, great. if it isn't, great. Hope he keeps it up.

[moonslav59]

I'm sorry guys, but this is just flat ********.

 

JBJ flat out hasn't been able to read the breaking stuff because he often does not keep his head on the ball. I don't believe he has a great eye for the ball in general??? His swing is not bad, but he swings for the fences on every pitch, with zero adjustments at the plate. In general..... he swings from his arcs, his head and shoulders pull, and he consistently swings over the breaking stuff inside. He misses on the outside heat because his head does not stay on the ball.

 

It hasn't been bad luck, it's s***** plate discipline.

 

Now..... I LIKE JBJ, and refuse to give up on him! I believe he has the tools to be VERY GOOD, and always a GG CF'r!!!! But, I'm not buying into this absurd narrative as of late. As some of you are recently using select power hitting stats, ALL THE OTHER NUMBERS don't lie.

Now.... because he's so strong, especially in the legs, but he's no Piker upstairs either, he hits the ball hard!!!! Problem is, he rarely knows where it's going.

 

Inexplicably, he does come onto a 1 month LOCKED IN zone each year. It's perplexing!!! Absolutely perplexing!!! But these excuses are frankly ridiculous. History does not lie! He simply IS NOT the only MLB player with a great swing, good plate discipling, good head discipline, & s***** bad luck. Believing this is like believing in Santa Clause.

 

It's a fact that he has hit the ball hard for a long time with little results, until the last week or two.

 

I've been watching him closely on keeping his eyes on the ball. It does appear, at times, that he does pull his head up before the ball reaches his bat. He's not the only hitter that does that, and even very consistently good hitters do that from time to time.

 

Yes, numbers don't lie.

 

Here's a few numbers from 2015-2018-- a large enough sample size, for sure:

 

Hard Hit Balls:

34.8% Betts

34.6% JBJ

31.6% Beni

30.7% Bogey

 

Soft Hit Balls:

16.0% JBJ

16.7% Betts

17.6% Beni

17.6% Pedey

20.0% Bogey

 

OPS

.871 Betts

.815 Beni

.815 Beni

.795 Pedey

.785 Bogey

.767 JBJ

.704 Holt

 

.767 is not a fluke. Yes, it is largely sustained by a few mega hot streaks, but the numbers don't lie. .767 and GG type defense is a sure plus to any team.

[Sox75]

the batted ball stats back it up. He's actually made the same changes Bogaerts has. Playing for power more, getting more lift. The results have only started to come around, but his batted ball profile is significantly healthier than it was last year.

 

It's a fact that he has hit the ball hard for a long time with little results, until the last week or two.

 

I've been watching him closely on keeping his eyes on the ball. It does appear, at times, that he does pull his head up before the ball reaches his bat. He's not the only hitter that does that, and even very consistently good hitters do that from time to time.

 

Yes, numbers don't lie.

 

Here's a few numbers from 2015-2018-- a large enough sample size, for sure:

 

Hard Hit Balls:

34.8% Betts

34.6% JBJ

31.6% Beni

30.7% Bogey

 

Soft Hit Balls:

16.0% JBJ

16.7% Betts

17.6% Beni

17.6% Pedey

20.0% Bogey

 

OPS

.871 Betts

.815 Beni

.815 Beni

.795 Pedey

.785 Bogey

.767 JBJ

.704 Holt

 

.767 is not a fluke. Yes, it is largely sustained by a few mega hot streaks, but the numbers don't lie. .767 and GG type defense is a sure plus to any team.

 

 

Those stats are select. If you break them down by the month, he is consistently bad for most months, BUT always seems to have 1 good, and 1 great month.

 

He absolutely has very poor head & plate discipline MOST MONTHS. Lately, you again see him keeping his head & shoulders down & through the strike zone. For the life of me, I can not figure out why he loses that, but the FACT is, that it generally takes him several months to lock in, and he loses it again down the stretch?

 

I wish I had time to break it down by the month!

[moonslav59]

Those stats are select. If you break them down by the month, he is consistently bad for most months, BUT always seems to have 1 good, and 1 great month.

 

He absolutely has very poor head & plate discipline MOST MONTHS. Lately, you again see him keeping his head & shoulders down & through the strike zone. For the life of me, I can not figure out why he loses that, but the FACT is, that it generally takes him several months to lock in, and he loses it again down the stretch?

 

I wish I had time to break it down by the month!

 

I have not denied that his stats are mostly fueled by 1 streak or two each season, in fact, I mentioned it.

 

Yes, I'd prefer a more consistent hitter.

 

Yes, I'd prefer he not swing for the fences every PA.

 

He is what he is, and I don't understand a lot of his thinking and approach, but the fact is, he ends up around .730-.830 jest about every year since his horrendous start in the bigs.

 

Streaky hitters still contribute. It's just all bunched up in short time frames.

 

I wish he was more consistent, and maybe someday he'll figure out what he's doing wrong during his cold stretches and adjust more quickly.

 

The fact that, overall, he's hit the ball as hard as Betts since 2015 kind of surprised me. That can't all come from 2 months each season, can it? Maybe I'm wrong, but I do feel like he's had some bad luck during some of his cold streaks. His BAbip since from 2015-2016 was .312. From 2017 to 2018 it has been .282. it's .255 this year, despite the high hard hit ball % that has remained pretty consistently around 36% every year.

 

I know his plate discipline and lack of adjustments is a big part of his problems, but it doesn't negate the fact that he hits the ball hard and often gets nothing to show for it.

 

The shift has a lot to do with that, and if he learned how to bunt or go the other way, those numbers would probably change to the good.

 

[sk7326]

I'm really happy that people here spin a positive out of JBJ's hard contact. I think that that is just wonderful but to me it becomes far more significant when the ball winds up where someone can't catch it. I do agree though that it makes things sound better and probably gives a person hope when someone actually hits the ball . Lately he has been hitting the ball where people aren't consistently playing. If its luck, great. if it isn't, great. Hope he keeps it up.

 

Hitting the ball hard is the best indicator of getting hits in generally. There is luck involved anyway

[moonslav59]

Those stats are select. If you break them down by the month, he is consistently bad for most months, BUT always seems to have 1 good, and 1 great month.

 

Okay, let's take a closer look at JBJ since AUG of 2015.

 

Red: Hard Hit% under 30%/ OPS around .650 or below

Blue: hard hit % above 33%/ OPS above .730

JBJ

Month:Hard Hit% / OPS

8/15 39%/ 1.163

9/15 31%/ .736

4/16 38%/ .807

5/16 39%/ 1.175

6/16 39%/ .805

7/16 35%/ .839

8/16 31%/ .651

9/16 34%/ .731

4/17 44%/ .596

5/17 30%/ .808

6/17 41%/ 1.009

7/17 36%/ .596

8/17 28%/ .770

9/17 23%/ .517

4/18 33%/ .600

5/18 32%/ .599

6/18 44%/ .677

 

Let's use Bogey as a comp

8/15 26%/ .761

9/15 37%/ .876

4/16 30%/ .785

5/16 35%/ 1.017

6/16 29%/ .815

7/16 29%/ .830

8/16 28%/ .599

9/16 33%/ .750

4/17 22%/ .731

5/17 34%/ .949

6/17 39%/ .763

7/17 25%/ .452

8/17 24%/ .683

9/17 38%/ .803

4/18 28%/ 1.171

5/18 42%/ .705

6/18 39%/ .855

 

Here's what I find interesting and perhaps unexplained:

 

Both had 7 months where their hard hit% was good (blue) and their OPS was good (blue), but then it gets wacky.

 

Bogey has 4 months where he did not hit the ball hard (red) but had a good OPS (blue)- JBJ just 1.

 

Bogey had zero months where he hit the ball hard (blue) or so-so (black) and had a bad OPS (red), yet JBJ had 5!

 

This is amazingly bad luck or something I am missing

 

Edited June 29, 2018 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

I'm sorry guys, but this is just flat ********.

 

JBJ flat out hasn't been able to read the breaking stuff because he often does not keep his head on the ball. I don't believe he has a great eye for the ball in general??? His swing is not bad, but he swings for the fences on every pitch, with zero adjustments at the plate. In general..... he swings from his arcs, his head and shoulders pull, and he consistently swings over the breaking stuff inside. He misses on the outside heat because his head does not stay on the ball.

 

It hasn't been bad luck, it's s***** plate discipline.

 

Now..... I LIKE JBJ, and refuse to give up on him! I believe he has the tools to be VERY GOOD, and always a GG CF'r!!!! But, I'm not buying into this absurd narrative as of late. As some of you are recently using select power hitting stats, ALL THE OTHER NUMBERS don't lie.

Now.... because he's so strong, especially in the legs, but he's no Piker upstairs either, he hits the ball hard!!!! Problem is, he rarely knows where it's going.

 

Inexplicably, he does come onto a 1 month LOCKED IN zone each year. It's perplexing!!! Absolutely perplexing!!! But these excuses are frankly ridiculous. History does not lie! He simply IS NOT the only MLB player with a great swing, good plate discipling, good head discipline, & s***** bad luck. Believing this is like believing in Santa Clause.

 

He is striking out too much ... but the contact he has made has been good, better than a year ago. The expected results are better than actual - so the forward-looking expectation is that if this keeps up, the improvement will continue. So much of baseball is governed by dumb luck, it is silly to pretend otherwise.

[moonslav59]

He is striking out too much ... but the contact he has made has been good, better than a year ago. The expected results are better than actual - so the forward-looking expectation is that if this keeps up, the improvement will continue. So much of baseball is governed by dumb luck, it is silly to pretend otherwise.

 

Yes, the higher K rate accounts for much of his poor results, but he's not that far from others who seem to have better luck:

 

25% Devers

24% T Shaw

24% Leon

23% JBJ

21% Moreland

21% Young

19% HRam

19% Holt

18% Vaz

17% Bogey

17% Beni

12% Betts

11% Pedey

(2015-2018)

 

[sk7326]

Yes, the higher K rate accounts for much of his poor results, but he's not that far from others who seem to have better luck:

 

25% Devers

24% T Shaw

24% Leon

23% JBJ

21% Moreland

21% Young

19% HRam

19% Holt

18% Vaz

17% Bogey

17% Beni

12% Betts

11% Pedey

(2015-2018)

 

 

What is interesting about him is that he is essentially a poor man's Mike Napoli offensively - a bit of a three true outcomes hitter, with less power and plate discipline. He doesn't hit it often, but he can catch fire - and it usually is hit hard.

[moonslav59]

What is interesting about him is that he is essentially a poor man's Mike Napoli offensively - a bit of a three true outcomes hitter, with less power and plate discipline. He doesn't hit it often, but he can catch fire - and it usually is hit hard.

 

Good analogy, and I've often wondered why he doesn't have more career HRs with that hard hit%.

 

Mike always had his share.

[sk7326]

Good analogy, and I've often wondered why he doesn't have more career HRs with that hard hit%.

 

Mike always had his share.

 

Well Napoli is a different world - he has as much raw power as any hitter working

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Napoli has a ton of money now that he has melted down all of his Golden Sombreros.

[Bellhorn04]

Napoli has a ton of money now that he has melted down all of his Golden Sombreros.

 

Naps was a pioneer for the current crop of 'swing hard in case you hit it' types.