Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[Kimmi]

The Yankees' Sanchez was also under the Mendoza line before his injury.

 

It's probably a little more common than you realize.

 

The following 'qualified' players are all hitting below .200:

 

Chris Davis

Lewis Brinson

Gary Sanchez

Logan Morrison

Alcides Escobar

Joey Gallo

Jonathan Schoop

 

It's interesting to note also the Harper is only batting .216, though his OBP is .366.

[Kimmi]

Oh sure. I was just responding to the statement that it's rare to have an everyday player under .200 at this point.

 

MLB batting averages are down in general. The average average this year is .246.

 

For the second month this year (June), and only the 2nd month ever (April being the first time), there were more strikeouts than hits.

[Kimmi]

See I like JBJ, and hope he improves.

The real question is..does he save enough runs throughout the season, to Offset his Offensive deficiencies?

You had Damon, and Ellsbury who by no means were a JBJ Defensively, but their Offense Offset that.

Maybe I don't know.

 

As of now, JBJ's fWAR is 0.7, so the answer to your question is 'yes'.

[Kimmi]

His WAR is 0.6. Not fabulous at all but still a plus with his very below average offense....

 

Ha. Great minds.

 

Except I used fWAR.

[cp176]

It's a million times easier from the armchair.

 

I'm not sure if this comment was sort of directed my way in a an indirect manner or not but no one has ever said that getting hits in a major league game was particularly easy. i loved seeing JBJ drop that bunt down the third baseline line for a hit last night. It is about goddam time. If he was pounding the ball out of ballparks on a regular basis than maybe to some his poor hitting would be more tolerable. If he doesn't start getting "luckier " as some of you like to say with all of his hard hit balls, he needs to at least try some of these apparently forgotten ways of hitting regardless of how incredibly hard they might be. For the record, I think that shifts are great. It is on the field management and if as a hitter you can't figure out a way to beat them maybe you shouldn't be playing ml baseball. Oh and I am very proud to be saying all of this from my armchair the same way probably everybody else does. Once again - here's hoping this gifted defensive player can figure out a way to hit the ball hardly or softly where the defensive players are not standing.

[oldtimer]

I'm not sure if this comment was sort of directed my way in a an indirect manner or not but no one has ever said that getting hits in a major league game was particularly easy. i loved seeing JBJ drop that bunt down the third baseline line for a hit last night. It is about goddam time. If he was pounding the ball out of ballparks on a regular basis than maybe to some his poor hitting would be more tolerable. If he doesn't start getting "luckier " as some of you like to say with all of his hard hit balls, he needs to at least try some of these apparently forgotten ways of hitting regardless of how incredibly hard they might be. For the record, I think that shifts are great. It is on the field management and if as a hitter you can't figure out a way to beat them maybe you shouldn't be playing ml baseball. Oh and I am very proud to be saying all of this from my armchair the same way probably everybody else does. Once again - here's hoping this gifted defensive player can figure out a way to hit the ball hardly or softly where the defensive players are not standing.

 

Some of us try to make constructive comments when we see players slumping. Thats part of being a fan. We talk about slumps without defining them, but to me if a player goes for a week or more with both BA and OBP in significant decline, that signifies a slump or at least the beginnings of one. There can be a lot of reasons, like bad luck with hard hit BBIP being caught, facing excellent pitching where the team in general is in decline, opponents finding and taking advantage of some hole in your swing, physical issues, mental concentration issues, being worn out, outside life issues and probably more. Beni is in a slump now in my opinion. Now with JBJ, he is not in a slump but instead, his performance is just at a sustained low level over a long period. I know that the level of pitching, number of relief pitchers, their frequent use, shifts and all have depressed the performance of many hitters (some still are doing very well). Hitting around the shift, bunting, choking up and other options are available, but the money is in swinging for the fences, so that is what so many do these days. I am not for replacing JBJ this year as we well could be left with a worse situation. I am for considering his performance when lining up the team for next season.

 

Doing that risks that he will continue his sub 200 batting average but also gives he all the opportunity to improve and show that he is a ML capable hitter and player.

[cp176]

Some of us try to make constructive comments when we see players slumping. Thats part of being a fan. We talk about slumps without defining them, but to me if a player goes for a week or more with both BA and OBP in significant decline, that signifies a slump or at least the beginnings of one. There can be a lot of reasons, like bad luck with hard hit BBIP being caught, facing excellent pitching where the team in general is in decline, opponents finding and taking advantage of some hole in your swing, physical issues, mental concentration issues, being worn out, outside life issues and probably more. Beni is in a slump now in my opinion. Now with JBJ, he is not in a slump but instead, his performance is just at a sustained low level over a long period. I know that the level of pitching, number of relief pitchers, their frequent use, shifts and all have depressed the performance of many hitters (some still are doing very well). Hitting around the shift, bunting, choking up and other options are available, but the money is in swinging for the fences, so that is what so many do these days. I am not for replacing JBJ this year as we well could be left with a worse situation. I am for considering his performance when lining up the team for next season.

 

Doing that risks that he will continue his sub 200 batting average but also gives he all the opportunity to improve and show that he is a ML capable hitter and player.

 

I think that is a realistic way of looking at things.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure if this comment was sort of directed my way in a an indirect manner or not but no one has ever said that getting hits in a major league game was particularly easy.

 

No, cp, I wasn't directing that post at you, wasn't even thinking of you. Your beef about JBJ is more like 'Stop telling me about how unlucky he is.'

 

I was basically agreeing with moon about all the suggestions fans have for how JBJ can fix himself. I guess it's also just one of my things that I get a big laugh out of folks at home who think they know better than the players/coaches/management how to do things.

[Bellhorn04]

Some of us try to make constructive comments when we see players slumping. Thats part of being a fan. We talk about slumps without defining them, but to me if a player goes for a week or more with both BA and OBP in significant decline, that signifies a slump or at least the beginnings of one. There can be a lot of reasons, like bad luck with hard hit BBIP being caught, facing excellent pitching where the team in general is in decline, opponents finding and taking advantage of some hole in your swing, physical issues, mental concentration issues, being worn out, outside life issues and probably more. Beni is in a slump now in my opinion. Now with JBJ, he is not in a slump but instead, his performance is just at a sustained low level over a long period. I know that the level of pitching, number of relief pitchers, their frequent use, shifts and all have depressed the performance of many hitters (some still are doing very well). Hitting around the shift, bunting, choking up and other options are available, but the money is in swinging for the fences, so that is what so many do these days. I am not for replacing JBJ this year as we well could be left with a worse situation. I am for considering his performance when lining up the team for next season.

 

Doing that risks that he will continue his sub 200 batting average but also gives he all the opportunity to improve and show that he is a ML capable hitter and player.

 

Very nice post.

[S5Dewey]

I'm not sure if this comment was sort of directed my way in a an indirect manner or not but no one has ever said that getting hits in a major league game was particularly easy. i loved seeing JBJ drop that bunt down the third baseline line for a hit last night. It is about goddam time. If he was pounding the ball out of ballparks on a regular basis than maybe to some his poor hitting would be more tolerable. If he doesn't start getting "luckier " as some of you like to say with all of his hard hit balls, he needs to at least try some of these apparently forgotten ways of hitting regardless of how incredibly hard they might be. For the record, I think that shifts are great. It is on the field management and if as a hitter you can't figure out a way to beat them maybe you shouldn't be playing ml baseball. Oh and I am very proud to be saying all of this from my armchair the same way probably everybody else does. Once again - here's hoping this gifted defensive player can figure out a way to hit the ball hardly or softly where the defensive players are not standing.

 

I may very well be the biggest JBJ fanboy here and I was thrilled to see his bunt. Not only did it get him on base it could serve to notify other teams that if they're going to shift on him they're going to have to pay the price for it. Maybe a few of those bunts will force other teams to play him more 'straight up' and thereby improve his "luck".

 

Of course even if that works and his BA improves to .270 and his OPS remains at ~.700 there will be those who will be screaming to trade him because "he's lost his power".

[Bellhorn04]

I love the bunt against the shift, 100% on that.

[OH FOY]

As of now, JBJ's fWAR is 0.7, so the answer to your question is 'yes'.

 

You compared this to Damon's and Ellsbury worst year Offensively, with the Sox? That was the question, does the Defense, Offset the lack of Production on Offense. So for me your answer is incomplete.

Edited July 3, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

You compared this to Damon's and Ellsbury worst year Offensively, with the Sox? That was the question, does the Defense, Offset the lack of Production on Offense. So for me your answer is incomplete.

 

In Damon's worst year with the Sox he had an fWAR of 2.4.

 

JBJ is on pace for an fWAR of about 1.4.

 

I believe that an 'average' fWAR for 150 games is about 2.

 

If JBJ gets his offense going a bit he could make it to 2 or 2.5

[OH FOY]

Thanks! I work as a Master Machinist many years, and our Blueprints are less complicated, then these new stats for the simple game of baseball. ha

If we had to calculate all these things, to make what is required on what to do to get the job done, company would never make any money.

Numbers are good, too many numbers, just too confusing. Rather keep it Simple.

KISS has always worked for me.

Edited July 3, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Thanks! I work as a Master Machinist many years, and our Blueprints are less complicated, then these new stats for the simple game of baseball. ha

 

I like WAR OK, but anything beyond that and my eyes glaze over too.

[Slasher9]

Some of us try to make constructive comments when we see players slumping. Thats part of being a fan. We talk about slumps without defining them, but to me if a player goes for a week or more with both BA and OBP in significant decline, that signifies a slump or at least the beginnings of one. There can be a lot of reasons, like bad luck with hard hit BBIP being caught, facing excellent pitching where the team in general is in decline, opponents finding and taking advantage of some hole in your swing, physical issues, mental concentration issues, being worn out, outside life issues and probably more. Beni is in a slump now in my opinion. Now with JBJ, he is not in a slump but instead, his performance is just at a sustained low level over a long period. I know that the level of pitching, number of relief pitchers, their frequent use, shifts and all have depressed the performance of many hitters (some still are doing very well). Hitting around the shift, bunting, choking up and other options are available, but the money is in swinging for the fences, so that is what so many do these days. I am not for replacing JBJ this year as we well could be left with a worse situation. I am for considering his performance when lining up the team for next season.

 

Doing that risks that he will continue his sub 200 batting average but also gives he all the opportunity to improve and show that he is a ML capable hitter and player.

 

I may very well be the biggest JBJ fanboy here and I was thrilled to see his bunt. Not only did it get him on base it could serve to notify other teams that if they're going to shift on him they're going to have to pay the price for it. Maybe a few of those bunts will force other teams to play him more 'straight up' and thereby improve his "luck".

 

Of course even if that works and his BA improves to .270 and his OPS remains at ~.700 there will be those who will be screaming to trade him because "he's lost his power".

 

These 2 posts are money.

[cp176]

I may very well be the biggest JBJ fanboy here and I was thrilled to see his bunt. Not only did it get him on base it could serve to notify other teams that if they're going to shift on him they're going to have to pay the price for it. Maybe a few of those bunts will force other teams to play him more 'straight up' and thereby improve his "luck".

 

Of course even if that works and his BA improves to .270 and his OPS remains at ~.700 there will be those who will be screaming to trade him because "he's lost his power".

 

JBJ frustrates mostly all of us but we continue to be one of the best 4 teams in baseball inspite of what he does not give us offensively. Replacing him I think should be way down on the improvement wish list. Looks like DD is beginning to look at adding bullpen help for now and the long term. I think that he will also be looking for one more high quality starter during the off season. Even without the guy everybody (except one guy here) would love to see back at second, we still field a good solid team from top to bottom. We have a chance once again. I don't ask for or expect any more than that.

[Kimmi]

I love the bunt against the shift, 100% on that.

 

I like the bunt against the shift as well, even for big hitters like Ortiz.

 

Not all the time, obviously. But a hitter just needs to be successful at it once in a rare moment (don't remember the exact numbers) for it to be effective.

 

FTR, I dislike the shifts themselves.

[notin]

I may very well be the biggest JBJ fanboy here and I was thrilled to see his bunt. Not only did it get him on base it could serve to notify other teams that if they're going to shift on him they're going to have to pay the price for it. Maybe a few of those bunts will force other teams to play him more 'straight up' and thereby improve his "luck".

 

Of course even if that works and his BA improves to .270 and his OPS remains at ~.700 there will be those who will be screaming to trade him because "he's lost his power".

 

Most of the Bradley fan club are the people who also like advanced metrics. His detractors seem to be those who like "back of the cards" stats and use phrases like "automatic out."

 

(And while OPS is a nice stat, OBP is really king here. When it comes to Bradley, OBP would be great and power would be a bonus.)

[cp176]

"back of the cards" stats. My oh my -

[greenwell]

 

Months that JBJ's monthly OPS since Aug 2015 was...

 

3- 1.000+

0- .840 to .999

5- .770 to .839

3- .677 to .736

5- .596 to .651

1-- at .517

 

8 months over .770

3 months .675 to .770

6 below .651

 

11 out of 17 months, he's been over .677. It seems like he's had more bad months than this.

 

He actually has had more decent, good and great months than bad ones at almost a 2 to 1 ratio. I believe, this year has seen his longest bad streak since pre-2015.

 

 

 

Wow. These numbers really show his hot/cold tendency. 3 months over 1.000 and 0 between .840 and 1.000. It makes me think he could really use a head doctor to figure out what's going on during the slumps.

[dgalehouse]

Most of the Bradley fan club are the people who also like advanced metrics. His detractors seem to be those who like "back of the cards" stats and use phrases like "automatic out."

 

(And while OPS is a nice stat, OBP is really king here. When it comes to Bradley, OBP would be great and power would be a bonus.)

 

It could be argued that the " back of the card " stats are the actual bottom line. And the " advanced metrics " are just a way of trying to figure out how we got there.

[Kimmi]

It could be argued that the " back of the card " stats are the actual bottom line. And the " advanced metrics " are just a way of trying to figure out how we got there.

 

Isn't it important to know how we got there though?

 

OK, if you're a fan just enjoying a game, then there is absolutely no need for advanced metrics.

 

If you're a GM or part of a team's FO, it's imperative that you understand how/why a player is performing like he's performing.

 

If you're on a message board debating/discussing/assessing different players, or in this case deciding whether we should trade a player or not, I think it's necessary to look at the how and the why, not just the bottom line.

[SoxHop]

It could be argued that the " back of the card " stats are the actual bottom line. And the " advanced metrics " are just a way of trying to figure out how we got there.

 

That's a great analogy. Best I've heard. It works on my simple brain.

[Natick to NC]

Go get scooter Gennette and we have the lineup depth we have needed the last few years .

[oldtimer]

Isn't it important to know how we got there though?

 

OK, if you're a fan just enjoying a game, then there is absolutely no need for advanced metrics.

 

If you're a GM or part of a team's FO, it's imperative that you understand how/why a player is performing like he's performing.

 

If you're on a message board debating/discussing/assessing different players, or in this case deciding whether we should trade a player or not, I think it's necessary to look at the how and the why, not just the bottom line.

 

Advanced metrics are like past performances in horse racing. They tell what the player/horse did in the past but ar only partially reliable in predicting future performance. That's the best data the FO's have to make their judgment, but I hope they throw in the observations of solid baseball people as an experience factor to avoid repeating the blunders that we have seen the Sox make.

[cp176]

Advanced metrics are like past performances in horse racing. They tell what the player/horse did in the past but ar only partially reliable in predicting future performance. That's the best data the FO's have to make their judgment, but I hope they throw in the observations of solid baseball people as an experience factor to avoid repeating the blunders that we have seen the Sox make.

 

I couldn't agree more. I call this mixing the old reliable with the necessary new which can equal a successful formula. I think that people get upset when it appears that decisions are made that don't agree with their specific ways of looking at things. it is compromising at its best.

[devildavid]

Most of the Bradley fan club are the people who also like advanced metrics. His detractors seem to be those who like "back of the cards" stats and use phrases like "automatic out."

 

(And while OPS is a nice stat, OBP is really king here. When it comes to Bradley, OBP would be great and power would be a bonus.)

 

I am not a big fan of advanced fielding metrics, or any fielding metrics for that matter. OPS is a crappy stat because it adds together totally unrelated averages. The best stats are more stats, not less, and not attempts at all inclusive numbers. I will admit that I was old school until my eyes were opened to the importance of OBP. It is a single stat that is very useful in determining a hitters ability to avoid making outs, so its a good basic starting point in evaluating offensive contribution.

 

The problem remains that it is very difficult to measure the value of fielding vs. the value of hitting. I always hark back to the great Orioles teams who had a strong defense up the middle with relatively weak hitters at those positions. Once the slugging shortstops arrived on the scene it changed everything. Add the steroid era and offense took center stage. But baseball is still about a 50/50 mix of offense and pitching/defense.

[Bellhorn04]

I am not a big fan of advanced fielding metrics, or any fielding metrics for that matter. OPS is a crappy stat because it adds together totally unrelated averages. The best stats are more stats, not less, and not attempts at all inclusive numbers. I will admit that I was old school until my eyes were opened to the importance of OBP. It is a single stat that is very useful in determining a hitters ability to avoid making outs, so its a good basic starting point in evaluating offensive contribution.

 

The problem remains that it is very difficult to measure the value of fielding vs. the value of hitting.

 

What makes you think WAR doesn't do as good a job of this as possible?

[devildavid]

What makes you think WAR doesn't do as good a job of this as possible?

 

Too many variables. My main issue is that it is attempting to calculate how much a single player contributes to a win in a team sport. And it bases this on a made up number that represents a theoretical replacement level player.