Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[OH FOY]

https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/albert_einstein_163057

[Bellhorn04]

Too many variables. My main issue is that it is attempting to calculate how much a single player contributes to a win in a team sport. And it bases this on a made up number that represents a theoretical replacement level player.

 

It's attempting to address a problem that you cited.

[Behindenemylines]

Some of us try to make constructive comments when we see players slumping. Thats part of being a fan. We talk about slumps without defining them, but to me if a player goes for a week or more with both BA and OBP in significant decline, that signifies a slump or at least the beginnings of one. There can be a lot of reasons, like bad luck with hard hit BBIP being caught, facing excellent pitching where the team in general is in decline, opponents finding and taking advantage of some hole in your swing, physical issues, mental concentration issues, being worn out, outside life issues and probably more. Beni is in a slump now in my opinion. Now with JBJ, he is not in a slump but instead, his performance is just at a sustained low level over a long period. I know that the level of pitching, number of relief pitchers, their frequent use, shifts and all have depressed the performance of many hitters (some still are doing very well). Hitting around the shift, bunting, choking up and other options are available, but the money is in swinging for the fences, so that is what so many do these days. I am not for replacing JBJ this year as we well could be left with a worse situation. I am for considering his performance when lining up the team for next season.

 

Doing that risks that he will continue his sub 200 batting average but also gives he all the opportunity to improve and show that he is a ML capable hitter and player.

 

A lot of good thoughts in this post. I root for JBJ big time. This team is winning despite his struggles. Every time you start thinking it is time to move on from him he makes one of those plays. I’ve heard several times that he has hit with a lot of bad luck this year. He is never going to be a.300 hitter, but I still think he is a net positive player for this team.

[devildavid]

It's attempting to address a problem that you cited.

 

I find the attempt at a single number misguided. It tells me absolutely nothing about the abilities of that player. Give me all the numbers and let me figure it out myself. And dump OPS too. It is overused and measures nothing.

[jacksonianmarch]

I find the attempt at a single number misguided. It tells me absolutely nothing about the abilities of that player. Give me all the numbers and let me figure it out myself. And dump OPS too. It is overused and measures nothing.

 

I was a skeptic too, but it is the best derivation we have to try and quantify a player's entire game. It allows us to factor in defense in what had been an offensively tilted stat column. It allows us to compare how a guy like Ozzie Smith makes a team better without actually expecting much on the offensive end in comparison to a guy like Machado who is the other way around. It knocks down the Jim Thome's of the world who hit bombs but couldn't field a ball if their life depended on it and elevates a guy like Jason Heyward who hasn't been an elite hitter, but is an elite defender with some offensive skill. I like it now

[S5Dewey]

Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part because I'm a defense-oriented person but I'm going to be very surprised if Dombrowski breaks up that outfield, even in the off season. Dombrowski is an old style GM who believes in defense and the value of 'solid up the middle'. After all, he traded for Iglesias!

 

IMO DD is pretty happy with this team as he well should be. Were it not for the MFY the Sox would be running away with their division. They've got solid catching, there was no way to predict that Pedey wouldn't come back, and he has Bradley in CF. The concession he's made is having XBo at SS because of his offense.

 

The OF as it stands is one of the best in baseball with three CF'ers roaming around out there. That's got to have a positive affect on the pitcher when he knows that if he can just get a batter to keep the ball in the park there's a good chance one of those three guys is going to catch it.

 

As long as we have one of the best offenses in baseball I don't see JBJ going anyplace.

[Bellhorn04]

I find the attempt at a single number misguided. It tells me absolutely nothing about the abilities of that player. Give me all the numbers and let me figure it out myself. And dump OPS too. It is overused and measures nothing.

 

Nobody is forced to use that single number, though.

 

OPS is just a simplistic attempt to measure the total value of on-base skills plus power. It might be flawed and overused, but it's a big improvement on the old days when all you knew was batting average, HR and RBI.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dombrowski will do something if JBJ remains as remarkably "consistent" month to month as he has been this year.

April- .213/.312/.338

May .203/.295/.304

June .202/.284/.369

 

His last 7 days are ok and his 7 before that were good. But that just elevated what was an awful first half of June. If one of his prolonged hot streaks doesn't come this year, I think he will be moved in the offseason or non-tendered. He is making $6.1 mil and that will rise in arb even with the awful offensive season. With his defense, he is posting a positive WAR (0.7), so in arb court, he would see a raise. I don't see how DD justifies paying $8-$10 mil for a player of JBJ's deficiencies

[Behindenemylines]

Hitting and scoring a lot of runs is great and gets you a lot of wins from April to September, but defense and pitching win games in October and championships. Good pitching stops good hitting, and good defense is vital to good pitching. You have to look no further then last weekend against the Spankees. Friday and Sunday the Sox got no starting pitching and they got crushed. Sale shut down that same team that scored 19 runs in the other two games. JBJ had that defensive gem on the Judge ball. That is why JBJ’s defense always has to weigh heavily in deciding whether he plays or not.

[S5Dewey]

I was a skeptic too, but it is the best derivation we have to try and quantify a player's entire game. It allows us to factor in defense in what had been an offensively tilted stat column. It allows us to compare how a guy like Ozzie Smith makes a team better without actually expecting much on the offensive end in comparison to a guy like Machado who is the other way around. It knocks down the Jim Thome's of the world who hit bombs but couldn't field a ball if their life depended on it and elevates a guy like Jason Heyward who hasn't been an elite hitter, but is an elite defender with some offensive skill. I like it now

 

I appreciate the effort that's been put into constructing WAR but the thing it wants to quantify - the defensive side of the ball - is just too touchy-feely for me. I keep hearing about having "trained observers" acting like robots to rank every defensive play a defender makes the same way and I don't buy it. I've had some experience with "standardized testing" as it relates to testing methods and I'm sure that these observers still are unconsciously putting their own bent into their rankings.

IMO dWAR is even more nebulous when it comes to ranking outfielders defensively. Would Betts Range Factor be as high as it is if he were playing LF where there's a lot less field to cover? Would Beni's Range Factor be higher if he were playing Right Field, for the same reason? And yet Range Factor is one of the biggest factors in dWAR.

 

As I said, I appreciate the effort that goes into it but I don't think it's the be-all, end-all by itself when we come to ranking players, nor do I think it should be the stat that ends an argument like it often is here. It should be taken along with observing the player. Sometimes I trust my own lyin' eyes more than I trust someone else's numbers.

Edited July 4, 2018 by S5Dewey

[devildavid]

Nobody is forced to use that single number, though.

 

OPS is just a simplistic attempt to measure the total value of on-base skills plus power. It might be flawed and overused, but it's a big improvement on the old days when all you knew was batting average, HR and RBI.

 

OPS is not an improvement on anything. It uses SLG which is a very flawed old school stat. The improvement was to start calculating and looking at OBP. But even OBP does not account for all the times a batter reaches safely, but at least it comes very close. And the much maligned BA actually does a good job of measuring how well a hitter puts a ball in play with the bat to successfully reach base.

[Behindenemylines]

I think to make a true judgement on a player you need to take all of them (OPS and WAR) into account. As flawed as they may be, you can still compare one player to another. Where a player plays also has to be taken into consideration. Playing in Boston and at Fenway brings other elements into the equation.

[devildavid]

Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part because I'm a defense-oriented person but I'm going to be very surprised if Dombrowski breaks up that outfield, even in the off season. Dombrowski is an old style GM who believes in defense and the value of 'solid up the middle'. After all, he traded for Iglesias!

 

IMO DD is pretty happy with this team as he well should be. Were it not for the MFY the Sox would be running away with their division. They've got solid catching, there was no way to predict that Pedey wouldn't come back, and he has Bradley in CF. The concession he's made is having XBo at SS because of his offense.

 

The OF as it stands is one of the best in baseball with three CF'ers roaming around out there. That's got to have a positive affect on the pitcher when he knows that if he can just get a batter to keep the ball in the park there's a good chance one of those three guys is going to catch it.

 

As long as we have one of the best offenses in baseball I don't see JBJ going anyplace.

 

We may disagree on lots of things but I am totally on board with your appropriate view on the value of great defense. And JBJ is a great defender. If he were not great, perhaps the best in MLB, I would be less willing to accept his offensive deficiencies.

[Bellhorn04]

OPS is not an improvement on anything. It uses SLG which is a very flawed old school stat. The improvement was to start calculating and looking at OBP. But even OBP does not account for all the times a batter reaches safely, but at least it comes very close. And the much maligned BA actually does a good job of measuring how well a hitter puts a ball in play with the bat to successfully reach base.

 

So what's wrong with SLG?

[Behindenemylines]

We may disagree on lots of things but I am totally on board with your appropriate view on the value of great defense. And JBJ is a great defender. If he were not great, perhaps the best in MLB, I would be less willing to accept his offensive deficiencies.

 

That is why JBJ is still the starting center fielder for the Sox. The value of his glove still weighs enough that the offensive deficiencies can be accepted a little easier. Just think how effective the Sox offense would be if JBJ gets into one of his hot stretches.

[cp176]

We may disagree on lots of things but I am totally on board with your appropriate view on the value of great defense. And JBJ is a great defender. If he were not great, perhaps the best in MLB, I would be less willing to accept his offensive deficiencies.

 

Anyone who has ever been even around the game just a little bit gets that pitching and defense are extremely important to any team's success. I really like JBJ just as much as anyone. The but here is that if he does not start putting something together that resembles decent just decent offensive numbers, I doubt seriously that the Red Sox will pay much to keep him. I'm sure that they value his defense greatly but I'm also pretty sure that as has been said many times when it comes to payroll, paying very much for a .200 hitting center fielder. I hope that JBJ stays but if his offensive woes continue I wouldn't be surprised if he gets moved to help save a few million.

I hope that no one tries to turn this debate into the proverbial 2 sides - those who value offense and those who value defense. Any baseball person understands that it takes both with a special emphasis on pitching and up the middle defense.

[notin]

Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part because I'm a defense-oriented person but I'm going to be very surprised if Dombrowski breaks up that outfield, even in the off season. Dombrowski is an old style GM who believes in defense and the value of 'solid up the middle'. After all, he traded for Iglesias!

 

IMO DD is pretty happy with this team as he well should be. Were it not for the MFY the Sox would be running away with their division. They've got solid catching, there was no way to predict that Pedey wouldn't come back, and he has Bradley in CF. The concession he's made is having XBo at SS because of his offense.

 

The OF as it stands is one of the best in baseball with three CF'ers roaming around out there. That's got to have a positive affect on the pitcher when he knows that if he can just get a batter to keep the ball in the park there's a good chance one of those three guys is going to catch it.

 

As long as we have one of the best offenses in baseball I don't see JBJ going anyplace.

 

He reportedly turned down trades of Bradley for Edwin Encarnacion and Yasiel Puig, but I think Dombrowki would deal Bradley in the right move. Having 3 CF's means he already has a replacement for JBJ, and Dombrowski - the man who once moved Miguel Cabrera to 3B to accommodate Prince Fielder when the DH position was clearly open - might not be as dedicated to defense as you believe...

[notin]

"back of the cards" stats. My oh my -

 

I did not make that one up, but I have to admit people certainly understand it...

[notin]

OPS is not an improvement on anything. It uses SLG which is a very flawed old school stat. The improvement was to start calculating and looking at OBP. But even OBP does not account for all the times a batter reaches safely, but at least it comes very close. And the much maligned BA actually does a good job of measuring how well a hitter puts a ball in play with the bat to successfully reach base.

 

SLG is not a flawed stat. I greatly prefer it to batting average, which is about as flawed as it gets.

 

BA tells you that basically every hitter in MLB gets a hit in 20 to 30% of their at-bats. THat's not exacty a wide range despite how fans like to treat it. Get a hit 28% of the time, you need to be starting. Get a hit 24% of the time? Go to the bench.

 

SLG is the offensive stat that does allow for seperation, SLG can run a much bigger range, with most of the league falling between .300 to .600. It does favor XBH hitters, but then isn't this another advantage over BA, where a single and a home run are equal?

[cp176]

I did not make that one up, but I have to admit people certainly understand it...

 

What does it mean then? Also what does the statement imply? If it says something negative about, someone who isn't immersed in the metric way, speak right up.

[Kimmi]

Advanced metrics are like past performances in horse racing. They tell what the player/horse did in the past but ar only partially reliable in predicting future performance. That's the best data the FO's have to make their judgment, but I hope they throw in the observations of solid baseball people as an experience factor to avoid repeating the blunders that we have seen the Sox make.

 

Absolutely oldtimer. The need for advanced metrics does not diminish the need for scouts.

[Kimmi]

I find the attempt at a single number misguided. It tells me absolutely nothing about the abilities of that player. Give me all the numbers and let me figure it out myself. And dump OPS too. It is overused and measures nothing.

 

You are correct that just looking at WAR does not tell you about the specific abilities of that player, but that's not WAR's purpose. It does a pretty darn good job of telling you how much a player's performance, both offensively and defensively, was worth, which is what it's supposed to do.

[moonslav59]

He reportedly turned down trades of Bradley for Edwin Encarnacion and Yasiel Puig, but I think Dombrowki would deal Bradley in the right move. Having 3 CF's means he already has a replacement for JBJ, and Dombrowski - the man who once moved Miguel Cabrera to 3B to accommodate Prince Fielder when the DH position was clearly open - might not be as dedicated to defense as you believe...

 

EE

5 out of hos previous 6 seasons over .900 and all 6 over .886 with TOR

After signing:

.881

.776

He's already showing signs of decline, and Moreland is out performing him.

 

.929>.886>.881>.776

 

He's owed almost $22M next year with a $5M buyout on $20M for 2020.

 

Puig

.772 this year is much better than JBJ, but one has to worry about his volatility.

 

(He's a career .827 OPS guy.)

 

[S5Dewey]

You are correct that just looking at WAR does not tell you about the specific abilities of that player, but that's not WAR's purpose. It does a pretty darn good job of telling you how much a player's performance, both offensively and defensively, was worth, which is what it's supposed to do.

 

Is that what it's suppose to do? Because I was under the impression it was a tool to rank one player against another.

 

I suppose that does translate into a player's worth in $$$ when one player's worth is used as a benchmark and then other player's WAR is applied to the $$$ figure.

 

Of course, I think they're all overpaid, so.... .

[Kimmi]

OPS is not an improvement on anything. It uses SLG which is a very flawed old school stat. The improvement was to start calculating and looking at OBP. But even OBP does not account for all the times a batter reaches safely, but at least it comes very close. And the much maligned BA actually does a good job of measuring how well a hitter puts a ball in play with the bat to successfully reach base.

 

I disagree that OPS is not an improvement over something like BA. Believe me, I understand the flaws of OPS. But for a 'single' stat that is readily accessible and easily understandable, it does a pretty good job. It correlates with runs scored much better than BA and even better than OBP by itself. And I agree with you that OBP is king in terms of scoring runs.

 

There are now stats that do a better job than OPS, wOBA being one of them, but again, for its simplicity and accessibility, OPS is pretty good.

[Kimmi]

Is that what it's suppose to do? Because I was under the impression it was a tool to rank one player against another.

 

I suppose that does translate into a player's worth in $$$ when one player's worth is used as a benchmark and then other player's WAR is applied to the $$$ figure.

 

Of course, I think they're all overpaid, so.... .

 

WAR allows you to rank players against each other, across leagues, across positions, and across different time eras.

[Natick to NC]

JBJ is the best CF of this generation and maybe the best CF ever Glove wise .I would hope to all that's sacred in this world we never trade this player unless it's for a Chris Sale type of arm ....Yes Degrom for JBJ strait up to me is a fair trade but I wouldn't add as much as lint in my belly button more .

[devildavid]

WAR allows you to rank players against each other, across leagues, across positions, and across different time eras.

 

We can't really use any numbers to rank players across different time eras. We also can't use it across leagues because the NL doesn't have the DH.

[devildavid]

I disagree that OPS is not an improvement over something like BA. Believe me, I understand the flaws of OPS. But for a 'single' stat that is readily accessible and easily understandable, it does a pretty good job. It correlates with runs scored much better than BA and even better than OBP by itself. And I agree with you that OBP is king in terms of scoring runs.

 

There are now stats that do a better job than OPS, wOBA being one of them, but again, for its simplicity and accessibility, OPS is pretty good.

 

OPS sucks. I try very hard to ignore it. It is now fashionable to use it but it is a lousy measure. I don't look at BA to correlate with runs scored, I look at it to evaluate one specific aspect of hitting ability. OPS is a statistical nightmare. SLG sucks too and contributes heavily to the suckiness of OPS.

[devildavid]

You are correct that just looking at WAR does not tell you about the specific abilities of that player, but that's not WAR's purpose. It does a pretty darn good job of telling you how much a player's performance, both offensively and defensively, was worth, which is what it's supposed to do.

 

So it doesn't really help me in evaluating the specific skills of a player, which is all I am concerned with. I don't care about their worth, whatever that means.