Sox hitting??

[Kimmi]

f*** Devers.

 

I'm on the Lin bandwagon for now.

 

If they take this kid out of the lineup while he is hitting this well just to give Pablow another shot I will be pissed.

 

Ride that horse until it stumbles.

 

And if you are going for the brass ring this year and are convinced that you need a bonified 3rd baseman, I bet Beltre could be had at a sustainable cost since the Rangers are already 17 games out and heading further south from appearances.

 

Beltre can still swat and is still a premier defensive player.

 

If Lin continues playing well, they will not replace him with Pablo. I don't think Lin is the long term solution, but I agree, as long as it's working, I'd stick with him.

[Kimmi]

It is not just how good that Pedroia and XB are at getting on base, but couple that with how bad the bottom of our order is and Betts is missing a lot of opportunities with men on base. The OBP of the likes of Marrero, Pablo, Rutledge, Leon and Vasquez are atrocious. XB and Pedroia have an OBP that is approximately 80-90 points more than the bottom of the order slugs. That translates into lots of extra base runners.

 

You don't think that the stat geeks take all of that into account? They know how bad the bottom of some batting orders can be. They have studied enormous amounts of data. I'm fine with Mookie batting clean up and have stated many times that that is where I would put him. I just don't agree with batting Mookie 3rd. The number 4 and number 5 guys will get more RBI chances than the #3 guy gets.

 

And before anyone jumps on me with a 'it's not all about the stats' statement, I will say again that batting order makes so little difference that it is more important to put a batter where he feels comfortable, not where the numbers say he should bat. And all of the hand wringing over where anyone should bat is really mostly for naught, especially when the team is hitting well.

[moonslav59]

Moon, you are a numbers guy. The numbers clearly state that putting your best hitter in the #3 hole does not give you the optimal line up.

 

I've agreed with your analysis and now want Betts 4th, but I'd still rather have him 3rd than 1st. The 1st inning only happens once a game, and even then, we often have a man on base for our 3rd guy. The 3rd guy gets more chances with men on base than the 1 guy.

 

I'd like to see:

 

1) Bogey (assuming he breaks out of his slump)

2) Pedey

3) HRam or Young vs LHPs

4) Betts

5) JBJ

6) Beni or HRam

7) Moreland, Travis or Beni

8) Vaz or Leon

9) Lin or Marrero

 

(Note: I have HRam or Young as our 5th best hitter, so batting one 3rd conforms to the data you present.)

[moonslav59]

If Lin continues playing well, they will not replace him with Pablo. I don't think Lin is the long term solution, but I agree, as long as it's working, I'd stick with him.

 

Let the miracle continue.

 

I will say that even if Lin is still over .900 at the deadline, I'm not putting all my eggs in his (or Marrero and his) basket.

 

Unless Sox management views Devers' MLB arrival in 2017, I'm thinking we need to make a trade for a 3Bman and maybe a RP'er as well.

[bosoxmal]

Let the miracle continue.

 

I will say that even if Lin is still over .900 at the deadline, I'm not putting all my eggs in his (or Marrero and his) basket.

 

Unless Sox management views Devers' MLB arrival in 2017, I'm thinking we need to make a trade for a 3Bman and maybe a RP'er as well.

 

I can't see trading anybody at this point. I don't see the need for a RH pitcher. Especially at this time of year.

and I see no need to move away from the LH-RH 3rd base (Lin-Marro) combo asit now stands. Who ever heard of a good, lafet handed,hitting 3rd baseman? Rejoice!So he's 5-9 and weighs 145 lbs? Big deal. He fields the position well and hits line drives. 'nuff sed!

[Emp9]

Goodness, I don't know where this came from all of a sudden.

 

No I get it. 2 + 2=4 , except when 5 fits the narrative, of course.

[Emp9]

Let the miracle continue.

 

 

oh heck with it, let it roll.

[moonslav59]

oh heck with it, let it roll.

 

Amazing how Lin wasn't even on the radar at 3B to start the season. This might have been the opening day 3B depth chart:

 

1) Panda

2) Rutledge

3) Holt

4) Hernandez

5) Marrero

6) Dominguez

7) Devers (by AUG or SEP-maybe)

8) M Miller

9) J Witte

10) Lin

[sk7326]

You don't think that the stat geeks take all of that into account? They know how bad the bottom of some batting orders can be. They have studied enormous amounts of data. I'm fine with Mookie batting clean up and have stated many times that that is where I would put him. I just don't agree with batting Mookie 3rd. The number 4 and number 5 guys will get more RBI chances than the #3 guy gets.

 

And before anyone jumps on me with a 'it's not all about the stats' statement, I will say again that batting order makes so little difference that it is more important to put a batter where he feels comfortable, not where the numbers say he should bat. And all of the hand wringing over where anyone should bat is really mostly for naught, especially when the team is hitting well.

 

The league OBP is .325. Every one of our starting position players, besides 3B and C are above average - even Hanley and Moreland are above that. Our catcher production is worse, but a shade below the median - it's bad, but catcher production is bad too.

 

What has happened lately is just some of this stuff catching up - the opportunities have been there the whole time. Given the pitching has largely been excellent - and now the team is gaining steam.

[sk7326]

Let the miracle continue.

 

I will say that even if Lin is still over .900 at the deadline, I'm not putting all my eggs in his (or Marrero and his) basket.

 

Unless Sox management views Devers' MLB arrival in 2017, I'm thinking we need to make a trade for a 3Bman and maybe a RP'er as well.

 

The only real impactful 3B available is probably Beltre - and he might not be available. The trade market sucks - which has to matter here. My guess is the 3B future right now is

 

50% Pablo, Lin and a wish

25% a trade

25% Devers

 

If it's Devers - my guess is you won't hear anything until July 20, when the Sox head out West

[a700hitter]

You don't think that the stat geeks take all of that into account? They know how bad the bottom of some batting orders can be. They have studied enormous amounts of data. I'm fine with Mookie batting clean up and have stated many times that that is where I would put him. I just don't agree with batting Mookie 3rd. The number 4 and number 5 guys will get more RBI chances than the #3 guy gets.

 

And before anyone jumps on me with a 'it's not all about the stats' statement, I will say again that batting order makes so little difference that it is more important to put a batter where he feels comfortable, not where the numbers say he should bat. And all of the hand wringing over where anyone should bat is really mostly for naught, especially when the team is hitting well.

I don't think that the stat geeks are factoring in that the bottom of our order will stay this bad. I don't think they are factoring in an 80-90 point differential from the bottom of the order and the top of the order. You are a math geek. Crunch the numbers. That is a huge difference that would translate to many more men on base for Mookie.

[a700hitter]

The league OBP is .325. Every one of our starting position players, besides 3B and C are above average - even Hanley and Moreland are above that. Our catcher production is worse, but a shade below the median - it's bad, but catcher production is bad too.

 

What has happened lately is just some of this stuff catching up - the opportunities have been there the whole time. Given the pitching has largely been excellent - and now the team is gaining steam.

The OBP of our bottom of the order guys, i.e. Marrero, Pablo, Rutledge, Leon and Vasquez is not even close to .325, and the difference in combined OBP for XB and Pedroia is about 80-90 points higher than the bottom of the order.

[Dojji]

 

I don't know about you but I rather roll a dice on Devers than to trade away more prospects for a rental.

 

And I would rather throw this season into the dumpster than risk that asset. We do NOT have a good track record developing third basemen. Give him all the time he needs to get ready.

 

This is not some college kid with multiple years of preprofessional experience. High school kids and IFA's have a VERY VERY spotty track record when rushed. And you can expect them to struggle a bit in their first year or so almost regardless. Very few high school guys come out of the box swinging, that's what you draft college prospects like Benintendi for. Leaving him in the minors reduces the amount of time his learning curve HURTS this team at the big league level.

 

Promoting Devers because he has the long range potential to be a 30 HR bat doesn't mean he'll be one this year. All the history I ever read about this kind of prospect says that high school and DSL guys take time to warm up to big league play, Adrian Beltre did, Xander Bogaerts did, Middlebrooks who was a high school pick never managed the adjustment at all.

 

Hell, Pedro Martinez, who was so naturally gifted he started pretty strong, didn't REALLY come into his own until his age 25 season, and by then of course, he'd been in the big leagues for 4+ years and the Montreal Expos could not capitalize on what they'd managed to create because he got expensive.

 

With the example of Pedro to inform us, what that tells us is that all you'll be accomplishing pushing Devers into the limelight now is starting his service time clock before he's ready to produce a high level and by the time he is productive he's also expensive. Just like happened with Pedro. and exactly the opposite of good asset management with your prospects. And I remind you that that's the best case scenario.

 

Oh, if he struggles he might not play over the stopgaps anyway, and then you're REALLY not helping by having rushed him to the bigs.

 

Do not -- EVER -- make the mistake of trying to fill franchise needs by promotion. Promote kids when they're ready, bridge to them until they are. Franchise asset management 101. If you're not drafting for need (and you're not, because nobody's that dumb) then don't promote for need.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Dojji

[Dojji]

I can't see trading anybody at this point. I don't see the need for a RH pitcher. Especially at this time of year.

and I see no need to move away from the LH-RH 3rd base (Lin-Marro) . Who ever heard of a good, lafet handed,hitting 3rd baseman?

 

*cough*

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moustmi01.shtml

[Emp9]

Amazing how Lin wasn't even on the radar at 3B to start the season. This might have been the opening day 3B depth chart:

 

1) Panda

2) Rutledge

3) Holt

4) Hernandez

5) Marrero

6) Dominguez

7) Devers (by AUG or SEP-maybe)

8) M Miller

9) J Witte

10) Lin

 

Randomness you can't shake a stick at...

 

 

Lin 10 Games, 25 AB: .360/.429/.520/.949

[Slasher9]

Here you go, folks.

 

Up until May 5 Mookie was hitting 3rd. Since May 6 he's been hitting leadoff.

 

Up until May 5 we scored 110 runs in 29 games, or 3.79 per game.

Since May 6 we've scored 267 runs in 51 games, or 5.24 per game.

 

weather. not mookie. kid should be batting 3rd not leadoff.

[Maxbialystock]

So I took a quick look at various splits--Betts, Bogaerts, Beni, Moreland, HanRam--and found that, season to date, the most at bats with men on base was Beni with 135. In second place was Betts with 126. Maybe I'm ignorant, but I just don't see a huge difference in those numbers.

 

I would also offer this thought. It's even easier this season than last to give a good hitter an intentional walk.

 

In other words, I'm fine with wherever Farrell slots him.

 

I also think Lin/Marrero have together solved 2 problems at 3b--hitting and fielding. I notice that Beni also still gets platooned with Young when the opposing starter is a lefty.

 

I would be opposed to trying to buy or, worse, trade for a thirdbaseman because Devers is still doing well at Portland. Call it blind stupid luck or whatever you want to call it, but 3b is no longer a big problem or maybe even any problem at all--say I with all the confidence of a sample of 10 games of at bats for Lin.

 

The current streak to me is really 9 games old and includes the first three against the Twins at Fenway. And to me what stands out is that no one Sox hitter has taken charge. Rather one night it's Pedroia with those nasty singles, then Beni, then Betts, then Lin, then JBJ, then whoever.

 

Back in the early John Henry years you had to be stupid not to love having Manny--even with Manny being Manny--and Ortiz in the middle of that lineup. It took a dip when Manny left, but in 2013 and again last year it did pretty darn well with just Ortiz and some other good bats but not great ones.

 

Right now it seems to be working with mostly singles and a few doubles and occasional dingers, and it's working because the pitching is currently the best in the AL (if ERA means anything). I might add that the pitching is helped by having Lin/Marrero at 3B vs. Rutledge, Pablo, whoever. I doubt that Devers is as good a fielder as Lin or Marrero.

 

We can all have our own theories about how to fix things, but me, I kind of like the way this team is playing right now. Forget last night and look at Monday's game when Porcello goes 6.1, giving up 3, and Scott gives up another and, horror of horrors, our immaculate closer gives up the game-tying dinger in the 9th. This just gives Hembree a chance to go 2 extra innings and Beni to get that weak single that capitalizes on the walk to Lin, the double by Betts, and the walk to Pedroia. Wasn't that great?

 

So let's hear it for the status quo.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[S5Dewey]

Moon, you are a numbers guy. The numbers clearly state that putting your best hitter in the #3 hole does not give you the optimal line up.

 

I hear what the numbers state, but at the same time I've also seen (here?) that there are studies that say that your "best" hitter should be hitting 1st, 3rd, or 4th. That seems to confirm what I've learned, that if someone wants to prove something there will be studies there to confirm it.

 

My personal opinion FWIW and not confirmed by any studies is that a team should have it's best OBP hitter batting first, the hitter with the best OPS 3rd, and the best HR hitter batting 4th. Which leaves the problem of what to do when one hitter qualifies for two - or even three - of those spots?

 

And isn't that where we are with Mookie?

[a700hitter]

That seems to confirm what I've learned, that if someone wants to prove something there will be studies there to confirm it.

 

And there is a study confirming that too.

[S5Dewey]

So I took a quick look at various splits--Betts, Bogaerts, Beni, Moreland, HanRam--and found that, season to date, the most at bats with men on base was Beni with 135. In second place was Betts with 126. Maybe I'm ignorant, but I just don't see a huge difference in those numbers.

 

I would also offer this thought. It's even easier this season than last to give a good hitter an intentional walk.

 

In other words, I'm fine with wherever Farrell slots him.

 

I also think Lin/Marrero have together solved 2 problems at 3b--hitting and fielding. I notice that Beni also still gets platooned with Young when the opposing starter is a lefty.

 

I would be opposed to trying to buy or, worse, trade for a thirdbaseman because Devers is still doing well at Portland. Call it blind stupid luck or whatever you want to call it, but 3b is no longer a big problem or maybe even any problem at all--say I with all the confidence of a sample of 10 games of at bats for Lin.

 

The current streak to me is really 9 games old and includes the first three against the Twins at Fenway. And to me what stands out is that no one Sox hitter has taken charge. Rather one night it's Pedroia with those nasty singles, then Beni, then Betts, then Lin, then JBJ, then whoever.

 

Back in the early John Henry years you had to be stupid not to love having Manny--even with Manny being Manny--and Ortiz in the middle of that lineup. It took a dip when Manny left, but in 2013 and again last year it did pretty darn well with just Ortiz and some other good bats but not great ones.

 

Right now it seems to be working with mostly singles and a few doubles and occasional dingers, and it's working because the pitching is currently the best in the AL (if ERA means anything). I might add that the pitching is helped by having Lin/Marrero at 3B vs. Rutledge, Pablo, whoever. I doubt that Devers is as good a fielder as Lin or Marrero.

 

We can all have our own theories about how to fix things, but me, I kind of like the way this team is playing right now. Forget last night and look at Monday's game when Porcello goes 6.1, giving up 3, and Scott gives up another and, horror of horrors, our immaculate closer gives up the game-tying dinger in the 9th. This just gives Hembree a chance to go 2 extra innings and Beni to get that weak single that capitalizes on the walk to Lin, the double by Betts, and the walk to Pedroia. Wasn't that great?

 

So let's hear it for the status quo.

 

I sometimes think that this board needs a "thumbs up", and this is one of those times.

[Kimmi]

No I get it. 2 + 2=4 , except when 5 fits the narrative, of course.

 

No clue what you're talking about. I believe you are attributing my opinions to another poster or vice versa.

[Kimmi]

I don't think that the stat geeks are factoring in that the bottom of our order will stay this bad. I don't think they are factoring in an 80-90 point differential from the bottom of the order and the top of the order. You are a math geek. Crunch the numbers. That is a huge difference that would translate to many more men on base for Mookie.

 

I don't have to crunch the numbers. They've already been crunched, over and over and over. With probably every combination of good, bad, and average hitters. It's what the stat geeks live for.

[Bellhorn04]

weather. not mookie. kid should be batting 3rd not leadoff.

 

Nope. If it was weather we'd be giving up more runs too, but we're not. Both teams play in the same weather.

[Kimmi]

I hear what the numbers state, but at the same time I've also seen (here?) that there are studies that say that your "best" hitter should be hitting 1st, 3rd, or 4th. That seems to confirm what I've learned, that if someone wants to prove something there will be studies there to confirm it.

 

My personal opinion FWIW and not confirmed by any studies is that a team should have it's best OBP hitter batting first, the hitter with the best OPS 3rd, and the best HR hitter batting 4th. Which leaves the problem of what to do when one hitter qualifies for two - or even three - of those spots?

 

And isn't that where we are with Mookie?

 

I have never seen or heard about a statistical study that says put your best hitter 3rd, nor have I seen any stats supporting that idea. That doesn't mean that one doesn't exist, but I've researched the topic pretty thoroughly.

 

And I'm sorry, but your statement that "if someone wants to prove something, there will be studies to confirm it" is a false statement.

 

On the idea that the best OBP guy should be hitting first, I can agree with that. That is why it is not a ridiculous idea to bat Papi first.

[Bellhorn04]

I hear what the numbers state, but at the same time I've also seen (here?) that there are studies that say that your "best" hitter should be hitting 1st, 3rd, or 4th. That seems to confirm what I've learned, that if someone wants to prove something there will be studies there to confirm it.

 

My personal opinion FWIW and not confirmed by any studies is that a team should have it's best OBP hitter batting first, the hitter with the best OPS 3rd, and the best HR hitter batting 4th. Which leaves the problem of what to do when one hitter qualifies for two - or even three - of those spots?

 

And isn't that where we are with Mookie?

 

Sort of, yes. Mookie has many of the characteristics of a good leadoff hitter and many characteristics of a good power & RBI guy. He's a hybrid.

[a700hitter]

I don't have to crunch the numbers. They've already been crunched, over and over and over. With probably every combination of good, bad, and average hitters. It's what the stat geeks live for.

There assumptions have to be wrong in this instance, because there is no way that the conclusion fits this current lineup. The numbers are pretty straight forward as to the additional base runners that Betts would see batting behind XB and Pedroia, unless you are a Math -denier.

[a700hitter]

Sort of, yes. Mookie has many of the characteristics of a good leadoff hitter and many characteristics of a good power & RBI guy. He's a hybrid.

If you have 3 guys with approximately the same OBP but one of the 3 has HR power that stands out from the other 2, in what order would you bat them?

[Kimmi]

There assumptions have to be wrong in this instance, because there is no way that the conclusion fits this current lineup. The numbers are pretty straight forward as to the additional base runners that Betts would see batting behind XB and Pedroia, unless you are a Math -denier.

 

You are forgetting the counter effects of not having Mookie in the lead off spot. Mookie might get more RBIs in the 3rd spot. The team, on the whole, will score fewer runs.

[Bellhorn04]

There assumptions have to be wrong in this instance, because there is no way that the conclusion fits this current lineup. The numbers are pretty straight forward as to the additional base runners that Betts would see batting behind XB and Pedroia, unless you are a Math -denier.

 

You're leaving out a couple of things though.

 

1) If Betts is hitting third instead of first you're now reducing the RBI opportunities for XB and Pedroia.

2) The aforementioned point about Betts's total plate appearances going down.

 

If you can calculate the total net effect of all this you're a better man than me.

[a700hitter]

You're leaving out a couple of things though.

 

1) If Betts is hitting third instead of first you're now reducing the RBI opportunities for XB and Pedroia.

2) The aforementioned point about Betts's total plate appearances going down.

 

If you can calculate the total net effect of all this you're a better man than me.

I have a massive amount of grey matter.