Sox hitting??

[cp176]

Why? Because that's the way it's always been?

 

My point is that how do you know Betts would be more comfortable or a better fit hitting 3rd than he is hitting 1st? Your opinion of what type of batter should hit 3rd does not take into account Betts' comfort level and human element any more than the statistics saying he should bat 1st does.

 

I don't know whether Betts is more comfortable hitting first as opposed to anywhere else in the batting order. Do you? If Betts has had a discussion with his coaches and has reasons for leading off, I think that personally I like him enough so that I would listen to him. In a vacuum, when considering all things that make hitters great - very much inclusive of power and the ability to drive in runs , I would prefer to have him hit third. Leading off with what some consider to be a team's best hitter is not really a new concept.

[moonslav59]

I think for most players, the comfort with batting slot placement is over-blown.

 

Some players probably will say they like a certain slot or hate to be jerked around, but even with those players, I wonder if moving them truly lessens their chance of success.

[Bellhorn04]

Clearly you get more RBI chances batting 3rd than 1st, and even if you don't count the first inning.

 

Betts isn't our best OBP guy either! It makes no sense putting your power guy up first, if he isn't even a top 2 OBP guy.

 

And just like that Betts is a top 2 OBP guy!

[Bellhorn04]

Sure was nice seeing Mookie come up in the 11th with a runner at first and one out instead of him not coming up until 3 batters later...and possibly not coming up at all.

[cp176]

Sure was nice seeing Mookie come up in the 11th with a runner at first and one out instead of him not coming up until 3 batters later...and possibly not coming up at all.

 

Man - you guys are good - you got it right again! Wow - You stat studiers are just too good. Out with the old I say!

[Bellhorn04]

Man - you guys are good - you got it right again! Wow - You stat studiers are just too good. Out with the old I say!

 

I like Mookie up at the plate as much as possible. Somehow I don't see that as a very newfangled idea!

[OH FOY]

I'm with Mr. Bellhorn.

[cp176]

I like Mookie up at the plate as much as possible. Somehow I don't see that as a very newfangled idea!

 

It isn't - as long as we win, makes no difference to me. Teams at all levels have experimented with putting players in different spots for many many years. I find it very amusing that it is ok for him (according to the stat studiers) that it would be appropriate for him to hit first, second, or fourth, but not third. I'm not arguing with you. I'm stating my opinion.

[cp176]

I'm with Mr. Bellhorn.

 

Me too -

[Kimmi]

I don't know whether Betts is more comfortable hitting first as opposed to anywhere else in the batting order. Do you? If Betts has had a discussion with his coaches and has reasons for leading off, I think that personally I like him enough so that I would listen to him. In a vacuum, when considering all things that make hitters great - very much inclusive of power and the ability to drive in runs , I would prefer to have him hit third. Leading off with what some consider to be a team's best hitter is not really a new concept.

 

That's pretty much all I've been saying. Except that I would prefer him 4th instead of 3rd.

[Kimmi]

Sure was nice seeing Mookie come up in the 11th with a runner at first and one out instead of him not coming up until 3 batters later...and possibly not coming up at all.

 

Ha. Funny how that works.

[Kimmi]

It isn't - as long as we win, makes no difference to me. Teams at all levels have experimented with putting players in different spots for many many years. I find it very amusing that it is ok for him (according to the stat studiers) that it would be appropriate for him to hit first, second, or fourth, but not third. I'm not arguing with you. I'm stating my opinion.

 

The batter in the 3rd hole comes up with the bases empty and 2 outs more than any other slot. Because of that, you are 'wasting' some of the potential of your best hitter by putting him in the 3 hole. It's not that it's not 'appropriate', it's that the 3 hole is not the optimal slot for your best hitter.

 

That said, I will state again that batting Mookie 3rd versus batting him 4th makes so little difference (maybe 2 runs over the entire season), that a manager is better off putting hitters where they feel the most comfortable.

 

While batting order discussions are fun and interesting, the hand wringing over tweaking the line up is really mostly for naught.

 

Now if a manager were willing to go completely against tradition and truly optimize his line up, then we would be talking a difference of 2-3 games. But a manager would be crucified if he did that, not because it would be wrong, but because it opposes most people's opinion of what a line up should look like.

[Emp9]

We have now jumped to 11th in runs scored...just 4 runs behind the top 10 tier.

We are 7 runs from being top 8.

 

I had given up hope on ending the season being top 3, 4 or 5, but noe, even that seems within reach. We are 33 runs from 5th place and 40 runs from 4th place. It might be too hard to ctahc the Yanks for 3rd (53 runs behind), but I'll take top 5 or 6.

 

We are 5th in OBP just .007 from first and very close to being 3rd. OBP used to be the major factor in scoring runs, but now that the HR is back, we have noticed other teams scoring more than us.

 

We rank 16th in SLG...just .011 from 10th place despite being 26th in HRs 50 away from the league leading Astros. It will be hard for us to reach the top 15 in HRs, but I'm not sure we need to get there to win it all. We are 19 HRs fro #15. .

 

I don't overly care about where Sox rank in HRs. Most HRs seem to be solo shots anyway. Unless it's a walk-off or the half inning before, Solo HRs rarely make much difference in deciding a game. 3 solo shots by Texas last night didn't get the job done for them and we didn't hit any. The fireworks were nice though.

[Kimmi]

I don't overly care about where Sox rank in HRs. Most HRs seem to be solo shots anyway. Unless it's a walk-off or the half inning before, Solo HRs rarely make much difference in deciding a game. 3 solo shots by Texas last night didn't get the job done for them and we didn't hit any. The fireworks were nice though.

 

Home runs are nice, but contrary to popular belief, they are not the key to scoring runs. OBP remains king, and our team has gotten on base at a good clip all year long.

[Emp9]

The batter in the 3rd hole comes up with the bases empty and 2 outs more than any other slot. Because of that, you are 'wasting' some of the potential of your best hitter by putting him in the 3 hole. It's not that it's not 'appropriate', it's that the 3 hole is not the optimal slot for your best hitter.

 

That said, I will state again that batting Mookie 3rd versus batting him 4th makes so little difference (maybe 2 runs over the entire season), that a manager is better off putting hitters where they feel the most comfortable.

 

While batting order discussions are fun and interesting, the hand wringing over tweaking the line up is really mostly for naught.

 

Now if a manager were willing to go completely against tradition and truly optimize his line up, then we would be talking a difference of 2-3 games. But a manager would be crucified if he did that, not because it would be wrong, but because it opposes most people's opinion of what a line up should look like.

 

But I haven't seen anyone on here calling for a 'Traditional Lineup'.

[Kimmi]

But I haven't seen anyone on here calling for a 'Traditional Lineup'.

 

Well, everyone who wants to bat Mookie 3rd is thinking 'traditionally'. And pretty much every manager's line up is what I would call 'traditional'

 

Bat a guy like Papi or Bonds in the leadoff spot. That's bucking tradition. And any manager would be crucified if he did that, though it wouldn't be a crazy idea.

[OH FOY]

Not only does Mookie get more at bats, but he helps Pedey. Mookie puts more pressure on Defense, so Pedey should see more Fastballs, in which he is a good contact hitter. It sets the table.

[Bellhorn04]

Not only does Mookie get more at bats, but he helps Pedey. Mookie puts more pressure on Defense, so Pedey should see more Fastballs, in which he is a good contact hitter. It sets the table.

 

I like your thinking.

[Emp9]

Well, everyone who wants to bat Mookie 3rd is thinking 'traditionally'.

 

No, not necessarily.

 

And I just want Betts out of the lead-off spot, so 2nd, 4th, or yes..3rd would be fine with me. It also depends on how good the batters are before him and you're ignoring that. You're taking it as gospel. I've read the same articles you have. I agree with some of it, not all of it. Additionally, I've had some of the same observations years and years before I even read them.

 

Is it a coincidence Lin's line of 9 games .348 OBP batting mostly 8th and 9th, Also batting either 8th or 9th is Marrero who in the last 7 games has a .483 OBP, both setting up Betts to do some damage? Those are numbers you can't argue with either. How long does this last though?

[cp176]

The batter in the 3rd hole comes up with the bases empty and 2 outs more than any other slot. Because of that, you are 'wasting' some of the potential of your best hitter by putting him in the 3 hole. It's not that it's not 'appropriate', it's that the 3 hole is not the optimal slot for your best hitter.

 

That said, I will state again that batting Mookie 3rd versus batting him 4th makes so little difference (maybe 2 runs over the entire season), that a manager is better off putting hitters where they feel the most comfortable.

 

While batting order discussions are fun and interesting, the hand wringing over tweaking the line up is really mostly for naught.

 

Now if a manager were willing to go completely against tradition and truly optimize his line up, then we would be talking a difference of 2-3 games. But a manager would be crucified if he did that, not because it would be wrong, but because it opposes most people's opinion of what a line up should look like.

 

I appreciate everything you are saying and the way that you are saying it. if this team is winning, I honestly don't care where JF has them hitting. As a player, i liked hitting first, second, and third. It was always explained to me why I was where I was. that helped.

[Emp9]

Not only does Mookie get more at bats, but he helps Pedey. Mookie puts more pressure on Defense, so Pedey should see more Fastballs, in which he is a good contact hitter. It sets the table.

 

But but but but ...according to Kimmi and those studies of randomness, this doesn't exist!!!!!!!!!!!! You can't have it both ways!

[a700hitter]

Well, everyone who wants to bat Mookie 3rd is thinking 'traditionally'. And pretty much every manager's line up is what I would call 'traditional'

.

Not at all thinking traditionally. Betts batting leadoff would be fine if we had lineups from past years that were strong 1 through 9, but that is not the case this year. If he bats 3rd, he will lose very few ABs, so we will still be maximizing his PAs. However, the guy's batting in front of him get on base at a very low rate so that diminishes his opportunities to do run producing damage. I think if you bat him behind Pedroia and XB his opportunities to produce runs will increase tremendously. It has nothing to do with traditional thinking, but probabilities and math.

[OH FOY]

Its not the Stolen base, its the threat of one that screws up The Defense. Pitchers, focus too much on baserunner, Catchers cheat with more fastballs, Infielders cheat to open holes, then Outfielders have to field cleanly, and possibly hit the Cut-off man perfectly.

Lot to speed besides Stolen base.

[Spudboy]

I like your thinking.

 

Except that the idea of a disruptive runner having a significant impact on pitching has been debunked.

 

I am confused.

[Bellhorn04]

If he bats 3rd, he will lose very few ABs, so we will still be maximizing his PAs.

 

Batting 3rd instead of 1st costs about 35 PA's over a season, and obviously those missed PA's come at the end of the game so that needs to be considered as well.

[moonslav59]

Not at all thinking traditionally. Betts batting leadoff would be fine if we had lineups from past years that were strong 1 through 9, but that is not the case this year.

 

This is the main point.

 

I'd love to have Betts bat 1st, 3rd and 4th. He's perfect for any slot.

 

Even if he is our best lead off guy, the decision cannot be made in a bubble. One should weigh the differential of Betts batting first vs someone else vs Betts batting 3rd or 4th vs someone else. To me, the drop off from Betts to someone else in the 3 or 4 slot is much greater than the drop off between Betts and Bogey batting first.

 

Bogey does not have the power to bat 3rd or 4th: Betts does.

 

Bogey gets on base close to the same amount of times Betts does, so the much needed high OBP in the first slot does not suffer.

 

While batting third might mean coming up with no men on and 2 outs in the first inning, clearly the guy hitting 3rd has more RBI opportunities over the whole game than the guy hitting 1st. I'll bet my house on that.

 

With a team that lacks power, we need to maximize the positioning of the few guys we do have with power, and Betts is one of them.

 

The Astros have the luxury of batting George Springer first- we don't. Even though Springer leads the 'Stros in HRs with 24, they have 7 other guys on pace for 20+ Hrs.

 

[moonslav59]

Batting 3rd instead of 1st costs about 35 PA's over a season, and obviously those missed PA's come at the end of the game so that needs to be considered as well.

 

True, but Bogey gets those extra 35 PAs and gets on base about the same amount as Betts, so there's no drop off in OBP with those extra PAs by Bogey. Yes, Betts gets 35 less chances to HR or double, but when he does HR or double, there's a significant chance more men are on base. Bogey doesn't HR much at all.

[Dojji]

I do not disagree Dojji with most of your post. I have said many times that the FO should not act rashly. I should have added the stipulation of calling up Devers, if he is ready. That said, IMO, if Dombrowski feels 'desperate' enough, he will call up Devers whether he is fully ready or not.

 

I think that would be a disastrous mistake.

 

A guy like Benintendi who comes from the college ranks has a lot more reps under his belt at a semiprofessional level. He can abstract that into skills required to jump up a level of ball, after all he's already done so a few times.

 

High school guys like Middlebrooks and IFA's like Devers I really do feel you can't be nearly as aggressive with because they don't have that semiprofessional experience. Thre are fundamental things they don't know about being full time baseball players that they have to learn in the minors, unlike college draftees who learned a lot of that stuff on their baseball scholarships.

 

Rushing these high school kids and IFAs as if they'd had that college experience and already handled the transitions college players have to master to thrive in school, disrupts their schedule on learning skills that have nothing to do directly with the sport of baseball.

 

I guess what I'm saying is you put Devers in the slow cooker and let him marinate until he's done, you're going to wind up with a far better product then if you take the same ingredients and literally throw them in the fire. you can't manage primary franchise assets like Devers as if this year is the only one that matters. He's here to save the franchise in 2020, not this year.

[Emp9]

True, but Bogey gets those extra 35 PAs and gets on base about the same amount as Betts, so there's no drop off in OBP with those extra PAs by Bogey. Yes, Betts gets 35 less chances to HR or double, but when he does HR or double, there's a significant chance more men are on base. Bogey doesn't HR much at all.

 

These are good points as well. It's been said "as Betts go, we go"... and it's sorta' true. But with batting Betts lead-off we have to rely on our 7-8-9th hitters for Betts to do what he's capable of doing. The last week or so Lin and Marrero have been playing out of their minds good. I hope that continues, but I have my doubts it will for anything long term. What then?

 

Maybe it's some kind of long-game with Farrell? Maybe he switches up the batting order for the post-season to rattle and throw off the other play-off teams? Other than that, I see zero advantage of continuing to bat Betts 1st.

[moonslav59]

I think that would be a disastrous mistake.

 

A guy like Benintendi who comes from the college ranks has a lot more reps under his belt at a semiprofessional level. He can abstract that into skills required to jump up a level of ball, after all he's already done so a few times.

 

High school guys like Middlebrooks and IFA's like Devers I really do feel you can't be nearly as aggressive with because they don't have that semiprofessional experience. Thre are fundamental things they don't know about being full time baseball players that they have to learn in the minors, unlike college draftees who learned a lot of that stuff on their baseball scholarships.

 

Rushing these high school kids and IFAs as if they'd had that college experience and already handled the transitions college players have to master to thrive in school, disrupts their schedule on learning skills that have nothing to do directly with the sport of baseball.

 

I guess what I'm saying is you put Devers in the slow cooker and let him marinate until he's done, you're going to wind up with a far better product then if you take the same ingredients and literally throw them in the fire. you can't manage primary franchise assets like Devers as if this year is the only one that matters. He's here to save the franchise in 2020, not this year.

 

I don't doubt the Sox reasoning with the decision not to call up Devers "before he is ready".

 

I'm not sure I'd say it would be "disastrous" to do so. I might not even say it "probably" would be disastrous, but I have no issues with Sox management in this area. They have a pretty good track record at knowing when the right time is.

 

Weighing an extreme team need vs the possible pitfalls of calling a player up "before it is time" is one tough decision to make.

 

Not all pre-MLB games and PAs are equal, and it's not as easy as just looking at professional/college experience and age to determine ML readiness, but here are some numbers:

 

Beni: 126 gms & 551 ABs in college/151 games & 657 PAs in the minors.

TOTAL: 277 games and about 1280 PAs before call-up at age 22.

 

Moncada:101 gsm & 367 PAs in Cuba/256 gms & 1172 PAs in the minors.

TOTAL: 357 gms and about 1540 PAs before call up at age 21.

 

Due to Moncada's MLB struggles, many feel he was "rushed" more than Beni, perhaps because of Beni's relative ML success. Many felt both were "rushed" out of "desperation".

 

Betts: (no college)/299 gms & 1315 PAs in the minors before call up at age 21.

Most felt he was not rushed, but he did not have much time to learn the OF before being placed there FT.

 

Bogey:(no college)/378 gms & 1623 PAs in the minors before call up at age 20.

Most felt he was rushed, and he only played 3B for 10 gms before being called up to play 3B in the heat of a championship run.

 

Devers: (no college)/385 gms & 1506 PAs in the minors + 38 gms & 125 PAs with Escogido.

TOTAL: 413 gms and 1623 PAs. He is 20 now.

 

As you can see, only Bogey had more games and PAs than Devers before being called up. Like I said, all games and PAs are not equal. Not all players are "mature" at the same ages either, but Devers has had a lot of time playing professional ball. He started at age 17 not 18 like others. He got way more PAs at age 17 and 18 than Beni did in college at ages 18 to 19. He's had 2 straight seasons with 500+ PAs and has over 300 so far this year.

 

Again, I'm not saying I know better. I trust Sox management on knowing the right time to call Devers up. Lin and Marrero are "buying more time" for Devers, and that's great, but at some point, team need or desperation may trump readiness assessments or Devers will be deemed ML ready on his own. His time and experience in the minors seems equal or more than most of the recent Sox players promoted to the bigs. although much of it was at low levels in the system, but over 400 games and 1600 PAs is quite a lot.