A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Fisk]

I read a fun stat a few minutes ago:

 

Leon's WAR in the past 2 games - 0.4.

 

Vazquez' WAR in the past 2 years - 0.6.

 

Does that include 2014 or is it 2015 when he missed the whole year.

[Kimmi]

Does that include 2014 or is it 2015 when he missed the whole year.

 

I'm not sure Fisk, I'd have to go read the quote again or go look it up. I realize that it's not a fair comparison due to Vazquez' lack of playing time.

 

Even though I like Leon, I'm still pulling for Vazquez to hit well enough to take over the starting job. That is in no way meant to be a knock on our other 2 catchers.

[Fisk]

I've been pleasently surprised with Leon's first two games. I know it's way to small of a sample size, but it's been encouraging.

[Kimmi]

I've been pleasently surprised with Leon's first two games. I know it's way to small of a sample size, but it's been encouraging.

 

Here is the stat I quoted. It's 2 games versus 112 games.

 

 

Tim Britton‏ @TimBritton 3h3 hours ago

 

FANGRAPHS WAR

 

Sandy Leon, 2017 (2 games): 0.4

Christian Vazquez, 2014-2016 (112 games): 0.6

 

I think I'm a little more optimistic about Leon's hitting than you are. He won't repeat last year's numbers, but I think he'll be significantly better than 2015.

[Fisk]

Here is the stat I quoted. It's 2 games versus 112 games.

 

 

Tim Britton‏ @TimBritton 3h3 hours ago

 

FANGRAPHS WAR

 

Sandy Leon, 2017 (2 games): 0.4

Christian Vazquez, 2014-2016 (112 games): 0.6

 

I think I'm a little more optimistic about Leon's hitting than you are. He won't repeat last year's numbers, but I think he'll be significantly better than 2015.

 

Thank you for that, I'm surprised about Vazquez's war.

 

I'll be very happy if Leon can hit 270 with 10-15 home runs.

[oldtimer]

With bereavement issues and flu going around they called up Hernandez and I believe Pomeranz. Bogaerts will be out for three days and so will Barnes. Holt was sick but is now playable. It will be interesting to see who starts at short.

[moonslav59]

I read a fun stat a few minutes ago:

 

Leon's WAR in the past 2 games - 0.4.

 

Vazquez' WAR in the past 2 years - 0.6.

 

Not surprising.

 

FYI

 

2014-2017 overall:

 

2.4 WAR Leon (141 gm/489 PA)

1.9 WAR Swi (103/383)

0.6 WAR Vaz (112/385)

 

[moonslav59]

With bereavement issues and flu going around they called up Hernandez and I believe Pomeranz. Bogaerts will be out for three days and so will Barnes. Holt was sick but is now playable. It will be interesting to see who starts at short.

 

My head is spinning!

 

5 pitchers on the DL, flu victims and family deaths.

[S5Dewey]

My head is spinning!

 

5 pitchers on the DL, flu victims and family deaths.

 

What are the chances of having two guys out on bereavement at the same time?? Gad!!

 

And on a more personal note... I'm not being critical. It's not all about baseball or the fans. Players have lives too and I wish both of them the best.

[moonslav59]

I feel the same, except for Manny, who took time off from 5 or 6 ST'ings due to his 5 or 6 grandmas that died.

 

(It seemed that way, didn't it?)

 

[cp176]

I'm not sure Fisk, I'd have to go read the quote again or go look it up. I realize that it's not a fair comparison due to Vazquez' lack of playing time.

 

Even though I like Leon, I'm still pulling for Vazquez to hit well enough to take over the starting job. That is in no way meant to be a knock on our other 2 catchers.

 

I have to ask you why with respect to Vazquez? What about Leon do you not like when comparing him to Vazquez? I have read a great deal of what has been written with respect to Vazquez and I understand the premium paid for having a defense first catcher. I still think that Leon is a defense first catcher. Like you, I am definitely a defense first guy when it comes to this position and maybe even to baseball in general. I don't think that the difference between the two will ever be that significant. With respect to these two, they are on fairly equal footing. It very likely is going to come down to the better hitter of the two.

[S5Dewey]

I have to ask you why with respect to Vazquez? What about Leon do you not like when comparing him to Vazquez? I have read a great deal of what has been written with respect to Vazquez and I understand the premium paid for having a defense first catcher. I still think that Leon is a defense first catcher. Like you, I am definitely a defense first guy when it comes to this position and maybe even to baseball in general. I don't think that the difference between the two will ever be that significant. With respect to these two, they are on fairly equal footing. It very likely is going to come down to the better hitter of the two.

 

I was completely with Kimmie until recently. As I said in another thread, I love those "big arms". I like seeing a catcher throw out a base stealer by 10' with a perfect throw and that makes Vaz fun for me to watch. Plus I like the way Vaz frames pitches as opposed to Leon.

 

However, when I now look at our two current catchers I see them as being about equal. What Vaz lacks in offense he makes up for in defense and vice versa with Leon. Momentum being what it is I see the starting catching position as being what it is until Leon somehow proves he can't do the job. Then Vaz will get a shot.

 

I'm not qualified to get into the discussion of whether the pitchers like one catcher better than the other or into the aspect of game calling. I'll leave that to the people in the clubhouse. From what I see, looking at the bigger picture, the Sox are fortunate to have two very good catchers who are essentially interchangeable. We can throw either of them out there and not worry about whether they'll cost the team the game. I'll go with that for now.

[cp176]

I think that your take is a good one. Very sensible. I just keep looking at Sandy and thinking what is there about him (lacking I guess) that makes him any less of a defensive catcher than CV. Actually I think he is a decent framer of pitches and I really can't see anything wrong with his arm. He has a very strong and accurate one. I want the best for Vazquez too but I think that Sandy gets sold a little short by some people in comparison to him. it is a good problem to have. the one I really am beginning to feel sorry for is Swihart.

[User Name]

Vasquez has returned to elite pop times. But I just don't see his defense making up the offensive difference. Leon looks like a different guy at the plate to start the year again. Dude's hitting rockets.

[cp176]

Vasquez has returned to elite pop times. But I just don't see his defense making up the offensive difference. Leon looks like a different guy at the plate to start the year again. Dude's hitting rockets.

 

Is there much of a difference with respect to what the experts say currently between Vazquez and Leon when it comes to defending the position? Are they a long way apart in certain areas?

[moonslav59]

Vasquez has returned to elite pop times. But I just don't see his defense making up the offensive difference. Leon looks like a different guy at the plate to start the year again. Dude's hitting rockets.

 

Many people claimed Leon's BAbip last year was unsustainable, and I agree, but I never felt like he was going to totally revert to his "old self", since a good chunk of his uptick in BAbip was due to his huge increase in LD% and hard hit %. That is something that can, at times, be sustained.

 

Stat Career (including 2016) vs 2016

BAbip .337 .392

LD% 22.4% 24.7% (never above 18.8% before 2016)

Hard% 25.2% 31.3% (never above 21% before 2016)

 

I seriously doubt Leon ends up with an OPS above .800, and I wouldn't bet on .750 either, but there is no reason to think he can't do much better than he was before 2016.

 

On Leon's defense vs Vaz, the sample sizes for both are so small, and much of catcher defense is hard to quantify (see the whole CERA debate), but in my opinion Leon and Vaz are about even on defense. Vaz is probably a little better on pitch-framing and he may end up being better at throwing out runners, but CS% is over-rated. Leon does a great job blocking bad pitches and handling the staff. He may be slightly better than Vaz in those two areas, as of now. Both still have room to improve on defense, and one could pass the other at some point, but I think they are pretty even right now on defense.

 

I've always been super high on Vaz, but more and more, I'm beginning to think he may end up being the odd man out, when Swihart makes his case for the 25 man roster.

 

I still am clinging to a probable false hope, and I'm not even sure if I'm on board with my own idea, that at some point, we could go with 3 catchers, if we can find significant time for Swihart at DH, LF, 1B or 3B. I'm not against the idea of giving Swihart every chance to win the catcher job, and I'm not for teaching him how to play 1B or 3B just yet or improve his OF skills, but the thought is still in the back of my mind.

 

If we ever have a need at DH this year, I'd bring Swihart up, unless Travis is on fire.

 

 

Edited April 7, 2017 by moonslav59

[Emp9]

Moon, honest question.. Why is CS% over-rated? Is it just comparatively speaking not as significant to other stats or?

[sk7326]

Moon, honest question.. Why is CS% over-rated? Is it just comparatively speaking not as significant to other stats or?

 

Caught stealing % is a bit like RBIs - it is a team accomplishment. Remember for a lot of Epstein's time here - the Red Sox were the worst stolen base team in the league. But they also were vigilant in not wanting their pitchers to worry about different mechanics, slide steps etc. Get the batter out, the rest solves itself.

 

Also - it's not 1983 anymore. The times to run are chosen so carefully - and (generally, though better than in recent years) so much less frequent that there is just not going to be much variation among catchers in this area. I mean certainly some catchers have better arms than others - but I am not sure it comes out in the results that differently.

[sk7326]

Many people claimed Leon's BAbip last year was unsustainable, and I agree, but I never felt like he was going to totally revert to his "old self", since a good chunk of his uptick in BAbip was due to his huge increase in LD% and hard hit %. That is something that can, at times, be sustained.

 

Stat Career (including 2016) vs 2016

BAbip .337 .392

LD% 22.4% 24.7% (never above 18.8% before 2016)

Hard% 25.2% 31.3% (never above 21% before 2016)

 

I seriously doubt Leon ends up with an OPS above .800, and I wouldn't bet on .750 either, but there is no reason to think he can't do much better than he was before 2016.

 

On Leon's defense vs Vaz, the sample sizes for both are so small, and much of catcher defense is hard to quantify (see the whole CERA debate), but in my opinion Leon and Vaz are about even on defense. Vaz is probably a little better on pitch-framing and he may end up being better at throwing out runners, but CS% is over-rated. Leon does a great job blocking bad pitches and handling the staff. He may be slightly better than Vaz in those two areas, as of now. Both still have room to improve on defense, and one could pass the other at some point, but I think they are pretty even right now on defense.

 

I've always been super high on Vaz, but more and more, I'm beginning to think he may end up being the odd man out, when Swihart makes his case for the 25 man roster.

 

I still am clinging to a probable false hope, and I'm not even sure if I'm on board with my own idea, that at some point, we could go with 3 catchers, if we can find significant time for Swihart at DH, LF, 1B or 3B. I'm not against the idea of giving Swihart every chance to win the catcher job, and I'm not for teaching him how to play 1B or 3B just yet or improve his OF skills, but the thought is still in the back of my mind.

 

If we ever have a need at DH this year, I'd bring Swihart up, unless Travis is on fire.

 

 

 

I think it is smart to bet on the track record - so the Red Sox should have the eject button ready for Leon. But - he was really good last season, and clearly DESERVES the chance to prove that his transformation last year will hold.

[moonslav59]

Moon, honest question.. Why is CS% over-rated? Is it just comparatively speaking not as significant to other stats or?

 

Old schoolers still see that as a big stat. It used to be the only one that defined a catcher's defense along with PBs (which is often a subjective call vs a WP).

.

CS% is important, but other factors are involved, for example, the Sox used to not hold runners at 1B as well as other teams, and at times, did not even pitch "from the stretch". This made VTek's CS% look worse than it otherwise would have been.

 

I think pitch-framing & blocking the plate are at least as important, and handling the staff as the top asset a catcher can have, and that's a very hard skill to quantify and measure, but it's there (IMO).

 

BTW, here are the career CS%s:

 

Leon 44% (45% minors)

Vaz 44% (37% minors)

Swi 28% (39% minors)

 

lgCS%

Swi 32%

Leon 30%

Vaz 28%

 

I may be missing something here, but I don't see a striking difference between anyone.

[moonslav59]

I think it is smart to bet on the track record - so the Red Sox should have the eject button ready for Leon. But - he was really good last season, and clearly DESERVES the chance to prove that his transformation last year will hold.

 

I expect Leon to have a bad streak here or there, like he did last September, but I'm not sure I'd have as quick a hook as I think some here will have, when that slump occurs.

I think Leon may just be a streaky hitter, and we should "ride out" his slumps. Maybe sit him a few more games than normal, but I would be cautious with the "eject button".

 

I do think we might end up trading Leon- not Vaz, but more and more I see Vaz's trade probability on a slight upward slant.

[oldtimer]

I expect Leon to have a bad streak here or there, like he did last September, but I'm not sure I'd have as quick a hook as I think some here will have, when that slump occurs.

I think Leon may just be a streaky hitter, and we should "ride out" his slumps. Maybe sit him a few more games than normal, but I would be cautious with the "eject button".

 

I do think we might end up trading Leon- not Vaz, but more and more I see Vaz's trade probability on a slight upward slant.

 

Leon is heavy for his height, not unlike some other catchers. Catching can be an especially grueling position so perhaps what we have witnessed with Leon is that he wears down as the season progresses. If that was the case, the solution might be to get him additional rest throughout the season. With Vaz and Swihart as viable replacements, it would be easy to rest Leon several games per week.

[Emp9]

Caught stealing % is a bit like RBIs - it is a team accomplishment. Remember for a lot of Epstein's time here - the Red Sox were the worst stolen base team in the league. But they also were vigilant in not wanting their pitchers to worry about different mechanics, slide steps etc. Get the batter out, the rest solves itself.

 

Also - it's not 1983 anymore. The times to run are chosen so carefully - and (generally, though better than in recent years) so much less frequent that there is just not going to be much variation among catchers in this area. I mean certainly some catchers have better arms than others - but I am not sure it comes out in the results that differently.

 

I was watching a bit of Reds vs Phillies yesterday. The commentary turned to Cesar Hernandez after getting on base. Hernandez is young (26) and definitely fast, 17SB last season (19SB in '15), but not a particularly good base runner and while 17SB in '16 might look good, he got caught 13 times as well. So he's really not a good base-stealer either. They said it's also partly because there's no real way to practice base stealing. A player can take batting practice and work on his swing, or a fielder can work on various drills to get better. A player looking to steal more bases efficiently is at a disadvantage mostly due to not being able to replicate any given pitchers' subtle moves before a pitch. I suppose one can look at video to spot the best time to run on a pitcher before the game, but to practice it is impossible. This isn't so much of a counter-argument to what you're saying, you make some strong points, but I think it's worth noting. I also like a catcher who can pick off a runner leading ( I've seen both Vaz & Leon do this). That may not count under CS%.

[Slasher9]

I feel the same, except for Manny, who took time off from 5 or 6 ST'ings due to his 5 or 6 grandmas that died.

 

(It seemed that way, didn't it?)

 

 

family is very important to cultures outside of the USA. i'm just glad they were always sick and dying during ST and not during the season. oh, and if he used it as an "excuse" to miss the first few days of ST, who gives a flip? the dude was one of the best things that ever happened to the Boston Red Sox.....

[moonslav59]

family is very important to cultures outside of the USA. i'm just glad they were always sick and dying during ST and not during the season. oh, and if he used it as an "excuse" to miss the first few days of ST, who gives a flip? the dude was one of the best things that ever happened to the Boston Red Sox.....

 

I have always been a huge Manny supporter. I wouldn't have cared if he took every ST'ing off: the guy could hit in his sleep!

 

I just thought it was kind of funny that one guy could have 6 or 7 grandmas, let alone have one die seemingly every St'ing and ST'ing only!

 

(LOL)

[mvp 78]

I have always been a huge Manny supporter. I wouldn't have cared if he took every ST'ing off: the guy could hit in his sleep!

 

I just thought it was kind of funny that one guy could have 6 or 7 grandmas, let alone have one die seemingly every St'ing and ST'ing only!

 

(LOL)

 

This is gaslighting.

[moonslav59]

Holt at DH.

 

Marco at SS.

 

Does this mean Sox management views Marco as the better defensive SS, or is it Holt having the flu?

[a700hitter]

Holt at DH.

 

Marco at SS.

 

Does this mean Sox management views Marco as the better defensive SS, or is it Holt having the flu?

It just means that Farrell is the manager.

[Emp9]

Hope Mookie is available to PH late if needed.

[Kimmi]

I have to ask you why with respect to Vazquez? What about Leon do you not like when comparing him to Vazquez? I have read a great deal of what has been written with respect to Vazquez and I understand the premium paid for having a defense first catcher. I still think that Leon is a defense first catcher. Like you, I am definitely a defense first guy when it comes to this position and maybe even to baseball in general. I don't think that the difference between the two will ever be that significant. With respect to these two, they are on fairly equal footing. It very likely is going to come down to the better hitter of the two.

 

I don't have anything against Leon. IMO, he's a very good defender in his own right, maybe as good as or better than Vazquez will be going forward.

 

That said, based off of his minor league reputation and his limited numbers in 2014, I think that Vazquez can reach 'elite' status as a defender. He won me over in 2014 and I've been pulling for him ever since.

 

I won't be upset if Leon keeps the starting job over Vazquez based on merit. I'm not pulling against Leon in any way. I'm just pulling for Vazquez.