A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Emp9]

That was for everyone. For each and every bigly fan of my posts.

 

Ha! "Bigly". Nice;)...

 

Here's one: "I call my own shots, largely based on an accumulation of data, and everyone knows it"

[Emp9]

If they hadn't signed Moreland, they'd have signed some other 1Bman or used Selsky on opening day.

 

I think they want Young at DH vs LHPs, so they don't have to sit JBJ or Beni, and having HanRam just play 1B vs LHPs makes a lot of sense. My second choice would be to have HanRam DH FT with Pablo (Marco-Rutledge/Holt platoon at 3B) or Shaw at 1B had we not signed Moreland.

 

Moreland should be fine. I'm just greedy for offense Moon.

[moonslav59]

Moreland should be fine. I'm just greedy for offense Moon.

 

I love a good offense, too, but with an OF or Beni-JBJ-Betts, there's barely room to play Young vs LHPs in the OF. There would be no room for CarGo, unless HanRam played 1B FT again. That was doable, but I think HanRam needs time at DH....perhaps a lot of time, and I like the set-up they have now, where HanRam DHs about 2/3rds of the time, and Young gets his PAs at DH vs LHPs, so we don't have to sit an OF'er.

[moonslav59]

How many teams can lose to retirement a guy with a team leading OPS of 1.021 (38 HRs and 127 RBI) and still have a line-up with these numbers?

 

.318 31 113 (.897 OPS)

.286 30 111 (.866)

.267 26 87 (.835)

.318 15 74 (.825)

.294 21 89 (.802)

 

Plus players with 200-350 PAs with these numbers:

 

.276 9 24 (.850)

.310 7 35 (.845)

.295 2 14 (835)

.255 7 34 (.705)

 

Plus adding this to the roster via FA signing:

.233 22 60 (.720)

 

Looks like a top 3 to 4 offense to me!

 

[Bellhorn04]

How many teams can lose to retirement a guy with a team leading OPS of 1.021 (38 HRs and 127 RBI) and still have a line-up with these numbers?

 

.318 31 113 (.897 OPS)

.286 30 111 (.866)

.267 26 87 (.835)

.318 15 74 (.825)

.294 21 89 (.802)

 

Plus players with 200-350 PAs with these numbers:

 

.276 9 24 (.850)

.310 7 35 (.845)

.295 2 14 (835)

.255 7 34 (.705)

 

Plus adding this to the roster via FA signing:

.233 22 60 (.720)

 

Looks like a top 3 to 4 offense to me!

 

 

Now don't forget our old friend the Fenway Factor...

[moonslav59]

Now don't forget our old friend the Fenway Factor...

 

Yes, that does skew these numbers higher, but I still think we'll have a top 3-4 offense away.

[Maxbialystock]

Last year the Sox scored 100 more runs than the second best offense in the AL, so, even without Ortiz, I expect the Sox to do better than "top 3-4 offense."

 

For counting purposes, I assume Moreland, not Ramirez, is Ortiz's replacement in the lineup. That's a pretty big drop-off. Sports Illustrated used to have a stat called "runs produced." It was runs scored + rbi's - home runs. Last year Ortiz "produced" 168 runs for the Sox and Moreland 88 for the Rangers. Even if they can't make up for those 80 runs between 168 and 88, the Sox would still have the best offense in the AL--maybe. I think the Guardians, who were second in scoring in 2016, picked up Encarcion.

 

On the other hand, I expect Sandoval and Benintendi to be pretty good plus-ups. Pedroia might go down a little, but Bogaerts should go up. I will be more than happy if Betts and Bradley are about the same as in 2016 even though both are young and could improve. Leon will still be Leon, but Vazquez should be better than he was last year at the plate. Ramirez 2017 should be on a par with Ramirez 2016.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[Nick]

Pomeranz improves Per Boston Herald

 

After throwing 90 pitches Monday in a minor league game at the spring training site in Fort Myers, Drew Pomeranz is on track to make his season debut on Sunday in Detroit against the Tigers. Pomeranz (left forearm flexor strain) is on the 10-day disabled list, and a roster spot would need to be opened ahead of his activation.

 

The Red Sox haven’t officially made a decision yet, but Farrell said on MLB Network Radio yesterday that Pomeranz’ outing was encouraging and “things are pointing in the right direction for Drew.”

 

Pomeranz’ velocity was in the high 80s during spring training, but Farrell said it was in the low 90s in this week’s work. He averaged 92 mph in a 2016 split between the San Diego Padres and the Sox, but late-season elbow issues prompted him to receive a stem-cell shot in his arm in the offseason.

[moonslav59]

Last year the Sox scored 100 more runs than the second best offense in the AL, so, even without Ortiz, I expect the Sox to do better than "top 3-4 offense...."

 

 

Maybe road runs is more accurate as it takes away some of the "home field advantage" from teams who play in a hitter's park.

 

Road Runs Scored in 2016:

 

424 STL (with no DH!)

419 Cubs (ditto)

401 BOS (1st in AL)

398 SEA

398 WSH

390 HOU

380 LAA

375 LAD

374 MN

370 PIT

 

I could see an argument could be made that the loss of Papi, even with gains from Beni and others, could knock us down to 6th or 7th in road runs this year.

 

(Note: we also had the 3rd best road OPS at .762. We had an .858 home OPS.)

 

[moonslav59]

On the other hand, I expect Sandoval and Benintendi to be pretty good plus-ups. Pedroia might go down a little, but Bogaerts should go up. I will be more than happy if Betts and Bradley are about the same as in 2016 even though both are young and could improve. Leon will still be Leon, but Vazquez should be better than he was last year at the plate. Ramirez 2017 should be on a par with Ramirez 2016.

 

Having Young for a whole season should help too.

[moonslav59]

Pomeranz improves Per Boston Herald

 

After throwing 90 pitches Monday in a minor league game at the spring training site in Fort Myers, Drew Pomeranz is on track to make his season debut on Sunday in Detroit against the Tigers. Pomeranz (left forearm flexor strain) is on the 10-day disabled list, and a roster spot would need to be opened ahead of his activation.

 

The Red Sox haven’t officially made a decision yet, but Farrell said on MLB Network Radio yesterday that Pomeranz’ outing was encouraging and “things are pointing in the right direction for Drew.”

 

Pomeranz’ velocity was in the high 80s during spring training, but Farrell said it was in the low 90s in this week’s work. He averaged 92 mph in a 2016 split between the San Diego Padres and the Sox, but late-season elbow issues prompted him to receive a stem-cell shot in his arm in the offseason.

 

My guess is Scott gets sent to AAA, and Pom starts,

[Fisk]

My guess is Scott gets sent to AAA, and Pom starts,

 

Migh be Taylor who goes down. Don't forget he used Scott before Abad on Monday.

[mvp 78]

Migh be Taylor who goes down. Don't forget he used Scott before Abad on Monday.

 

Yeah, I think Farrell really likes Scott. I bet Taylor goes down. Abad and RJR aren't used as LOOGY guys (though Abad probably should be).

Edited April 5, 2017 by mvp 78

[Fisk]

Yeah, I think Farrell really likes Scott. I bet Taylor goes down. Abad and RJR aren't used as LOOGY guys (though Abad probably should be).

 

Abad needs to be he sucks against righties.

[moonslav59]

Migh be Taylor who goes down. Don't forget he used Scott before Abad on Monday.

 

Yes, Taylor is probably the one to go.

[S5Dewey]

Yes, Taylor is probably the one to go.

 

I don't understand how he made the 25 man roster to begin with!

[moonslav59]

I don't understand how he made the 25 man roster to begin with!

 

Maybe the 5 pitchers on the DL had a litle to do with it.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Although this may look like I'm looking to next year, some roster moves may be made this year with a rule 5 player in mind to be added to the 40 man roster by November 20th.

(List is from soxprospects.com)

 

Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Gerson Bautista, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Rafael Devers, Jhonathan Diaz, Jake Drehoff, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Taylor Grover, Juan Hernandez, Darwinzon Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Tzu-Wei Lin, Nick Longhi, Isaias Lucena, Austin Maddox, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Derek Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Ben Moore, Jhon Nunez, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Carlos Tovar, Sam Travis, Jantzen Witte

[oldtimer]

Last night's performance was of course too soon to draw conclusions about the lineup, team hitting and pitching but two wins against a good team is a start we would have hoped for. The temperature was cold last night and we faced one of the better pitchers from a good team, while we put up one of our aces (nice to say). Our hitting wasn't good but it was encouraging to see Leon hit. Beni made some excellent plays in left and Sale in particular and the pitching in general more than held up. Onward from here. The hitting will heat up with the weather.

[Nick]

Last night's performance was of course too soon to draw conclusions about the lineup, team hitting and pitching but two wins against a good team is a start we would have hoped for. The temperature was cold last night and we faced one of the better pitchers from a good team, while we put up one of our aces (nice to say). Our hitting wasn't good but it was encouraging to see Leon hit. Beni made some excellent plays in left and Sale in particular and the pitching in general more than held up. Onward from here. The hitting will heat up with the weather.

 

I was most encouraged by 1 walk given up by our pitching staff over 12 innings. Sale was good as advertised. Good to see Kelly pitch well in his first outing.

[moonslav59]

Walk-off wins can really boost morale. I'm glad Leon got that experience (his career first).

 

Once again, I'm so happy we have...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale

 

that I'm almost giddy!

 

Defense is looking solid. Beni seems to have learned LF quickly. JBJ is still a force and Betts is GG material as well.

 

I think it was telling how JF used Young in RF with a righty starting, instead of Selsky or Holt.

 

Great game!

 

Let's go for 3!

[Slasher9]

sure would be nice if Price was actually available to make this next start....

[mvp 78]

sure would be nice if price was actually available to make a start prior to june....

 

ftfy

[Nick]

Walk-off wins can really boost morale. I'm glad Leon got that experience (his career first).

 

Once again, I'm so happy we have...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale

 

that I'm almost giddy!

 

Defense is looking solid. Beni seems to have learned LF quickly. JBJ is still a force and Betts is GG material as well.

 

I think it was telling how JF used Young in RF with a righty starting, instead of Selsky or Holt.

 

Great game!

 

Let's go for 3!

 

Holt was not at Fenway last night due to flu symptoms. BUT I still would have played Young.

 

It maybe that we'll get a big boost when Price returns. E Rod, Wright or Pom will go to the bullpen.

 

And think if Carson Smith comes back strong and Thornburg returns to last year's form when he returns.

 

Sandy Leon is a stud defensive catcher. I would hate to trade any of our catchers, including Swihart.

 

Moreland hit .230 last year so expecting him to make more contact is wishful thinking. He hit a ball that would been a game winning home run on any other day so we have to be patient.

 

Really encouraged by Kelly's 2 innings.

 

We're 2-0 and get a day off. Play, sit, play, sit, waiting for spring weather to return.

 

By the way, we now play next 30 games with 1 day off......good for Sox fans.

Edited April 6, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Holt was not at Fenway last night due to flu symptoms. BUT I still would have played Young.

 

Wonder if JF would have had Holt been available.

 

It maybe that we'll get a big boost when Price returns. E Rod, Wright or Pom will go to the bullpen.

 

And think if Carson Smith comes back strong and Thornburg returns to last year's form when he returns.

 

Sandy Leon is a stud defensive catcher. I would hate to trade any of our catchers, including Swihart.

 

Moreland hit .230 last year so expecting him to make more contact is wishful thinking. He hit a ball that would been a game winning home run on any other day so we have to be patient.

 

He does hit HRs at a pretty good rate.

 

 

Really encouraged by Kelly's 2 innings.

 

We're 2-0 and get a day off. Play, sit, play, sit, waiting for spring weather to return.

 

By the way, we now play next 30 games with 1 day off......good for Sox fans.

 

The extra day off might give Pom a chance to be ready for his "pushed back" start:

 

4/7 @Det ERod

4/8 @Det Wright

4/9 @Det Porcello (+1 day rest)

4/10 @Det Sale

4/11 BAL Pomeranz

[Nick]

Looks like E Rod and Wright will flip so Wright can follow Sale. Wright will pitch Friday as previously scheduled. That will break up two lefties back to back.....Porcello, Sale, Wright, E Rod and Pom.

 

My head is spinning from all the off field crap that's going on......but we are 2-0.

 

Schwarber just hit a three run homer to give Cubs a 5-4 lead. Bullpen is so critical.

[moonslav59]

Interesting stats...

 

Sox WAR over the last 365 days...

 

7.8 Betts

5.2 Pedey

5.1 JBJ

4.7 Bogey

4.4 Papi

2.8 Leon

2.6 Ramirez

1.5 Shaw

1.1 Young

0.6 Beni

 

OPS

1.021 Papi

.897 Betts

.872 Leon

.862 HanRam

.844 Young

.840 JBJ

.832 Beni

.822 Pedey

.798 Bogey

[moonslav59]

WAR/Gms/WAR per Gm in last 365 days:

 

Betts: 7.8/159/ 0.049

Leon: 2.8/80/ 0.035

Pedey: 5.2/156/ 0.033

J.B.Jr: 5.1/158/ 0.322

Bogey: 4.7/159/ 0.030

Papi: 4.4/151/ 0.029

Beni: 0.6/36/ 0.17

HanRam: 2.6/149/ 0.17

 

[Kimmi]

Last night's performance was of course too soon to draw conclusions about the lineup, team hitting and pitching but two wins against a good team is a start we would have hoped for. The temperature was cold last night and we faced one of the better pitchers from a good team, while we put up one of our aces (nice to say). Our hitting wasn't good but it was encouraging to see Leon hit. Beni made some excellent plays in left and Sale in particular and the pitching in general more than held up. Onward from here. The hitting will heat up with the weather.

 

Last night's game was just a good game, so much so that I stayed up an hour past bedtime to watch the whole thing. I'm glad I did. Great pitching on both sides, some great defense, and a terrific walk off win. It doesn't get much better.

[Kimmi]

Interesting stats...

 

Sox WAR over the last 365 days...

 

2.8 Leon

 

I read a fun stat a few minutes ago:

 

Leon's WAR in the past 2 games - 0.4.

 

Vazquez' WAR in the past 2 years - 0.6.