3rd Third III

[S5Dewey]

Certainly, that could happen. There's a strong chance Pablo does not do well when he returns.

 

I'd give Pablo a pretty long leash though, assuming he hasn't gained 10 pounds while on the DL.

 

You're more generous than I am. IMO he's had the 'long leash' and hasn't done anything to deserve it being lengthened. I was hoping that when he came back he'd improve enough that we'd either want him there or we could unload at least a part of his salary, but I haven't seen it yet.

 

What is it they say about insanity? Doing the same thing over and over, getting the same results and thinking things are going to improve?

[moonslav59]

You're more generous than I am. IMO he's had the 'long leash' and hasn't done anything to deserve it being lengthened. I was hoping that when he came back he'd improve enough that we'd either want him there or we could unload at least a part of his salary, but I haven't seen it yet.

 

What is it they say about insanity? Doing the same thing over and over, getting the same results and thinking things are going to improve?

 

I hated the Pablo signing from the start, but he is not old and he does have a history of being decent or better.

 

By long leash, I'm saying 5-6 weeks, assuming he's not batting .150 and making an error once every 3 games.

[StephenCurry30]

Pablo has had 2 1/2 years, how much longer does he need?

[a700hitter]

He should get no more than 5-6 weeks.

[moonslav59]

Pablo has had 2 1/2 years, how much longer does he need?

 

Well, he was out hurt for a full season.

 

I get the frustration, and to me, this has nothing to do with his bloated salary. The guy used to be an average to slightly plus defender and a plus batter. I know it seems like ancient history, and I don't disagree that it's been too long since he was a plus.

 

I love the idea of bringing Devers up, but I don't want to rush him either.

 

When I said 5-6 weeks, that's assuming he's doing the worst I'd accept as "a leash": maybe .250/.330/.350/.680 and 2 errors. If that's the best he can give us in 6 weeks, I'm ready for Devers. If he does much worse, the leash gets shorter.

 

[moonslav59]

He should get no more than 5-6 weeks.

 

What would you say his minimal numbers need to be to go beyond 6 weeks?

[a700hitter]

What would you say his minimal numbers need to be to go beyond 6 weeks?

Minimum numbers? I don't think that way. He can't play like s***. Is that quantifiable? He needs to make the routine plays in the field and not be a black hole in the lineup.

[moonslav59]

Minimum numbers? I don't think that way. He can't play like s***. Is that quantifiable? He needs to make the routine plays in the field and not be a black hole in the lineup.

 

I agree, and I didn't mean your "numbers" had to be hard and set. He could be batting .680 with a ton of line-outs and hits robbed by great defensive plays, and I'd give him longer, and certainly his defense has to look better than earlier this season.

 

A lot also depends on Sox management's view on Devers' readiness. I'm not for bringing him up early, if the Sox do not think he's ready for the bigs.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Hernandez get another shot before Devers as well, but I'm pretty close to convinced that 3B is not a position he will ever master.

[a700hitter]

I agree, and I didn't mean your "numbers" had to be hard and set. He could be batting .680 with a ton of line-outs and hits robbed by great defensive plays, and I'd give him longer, and certainly his defense has to look better than earlier this season.

 

A lot also depends on Sox management's view on Devers' readiness. I'm not for bringing him up early, if the Sox do not think he's ready for the bigs.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Hernandez get another shot before Devers as well, but I'm pretty close to convinced that 3B is not a position he will ever master.

He needs to make the routine plays in the field. That is the key. He will probably hit okay against RHP, but we will need a decent option against lefties if he continues sucking in that category.

 

Edit: And the option against LHP also need to make the routine fielding plays.

[Spudboy]

Pablow would have to be better than the other options we have seen so far.

 

That bar is pretty low at this point.

[sk7326]

thank you - i know exactly what you mean. Those were the facts about Moncada that everyone saw or certainly had a chance to see though. i know that there were people who were very critical of his K rate when he got the call up. It should have come as no surprise at all. I still fully expect this kid to be a major impact player.

 

I do too. Last year just showed that

 

A) Moncada was a little bit further away than it looked (but not at all "behind")

The "bust" end of his range of outcomes (read Castillo, Rusney) was a little lower than it looked a year ago.

 

The White Sox are in a better position for him to be a good player. They are not playing for 2017 - they can make moves with a longer view with him.

[sk7326]

You're more generous than I am. IMO he's had the 'long leash' and hasn't done anything to deserve it being lengthened. I was hoping that when he came back he'd improve enough that we'd either want him there or we could unload at least a part of his salary, but I haven't seen it yet.

 

What is it they say about insanity? Doing the same thing over and over, getting the same results and thinking things are going to improve?

 

I think you are probably looking at for likelihood by July

 

50% Pablo

20% Devers

20% Patchwork (rotating cast - basically now)

10% Someone else

 

The bar is very low for the position given what they have been getting.

[Kimmi]

I still think Pablo needs to be given a fair chance, with good health, to show us what he has to offer.

 

If things continue as they have been, I would expect to see Devers called up around mid July.

[sk7326]

I still think Pablo needs to be given a fair chance, with good health, to show us what he has to offer.

 

If things continue as they have been, I would expect to see Devers called up around mid July.

 

I think Pablo will get a fair chance. And if Devers comes up it is after the break - probably on the road. Just bat him 9th and let him figure it out.

[Kimmi]

I think Pablo will get a fair chance. And if Devers comes up it is after the break - probably on the road. Just bat him 9th and let him figure it out.

 

Makes sense to me.

[moonslav59]

He needs to make the routine plays in the field. That is the key. He will probably hit okay against RHP, but we will need a decent option against lefties if he continues sucking in that category.

 

Edit: And the option against LHP also need to make the routine fielding plays.

 

Rutledge looks to be the best option vs LHPs, although Holt has a slightly better OPS vs LHPs than RHPs career, however, I don't think we have anyone in the system who can defend 3B decently, except maybe Devers.

 

I agree with your points.

[oldtimer]

Rutledge looks to be the best option vs LHPs, although Holt has a slightly better OPS vs LHPs than RHPs career, however, I don't think we have anyone in the system who can defend 3B decently, except maybe Devers.

 

I agree with your points.

 

Marrero has looked very solid defensively at third. I doubt he can hit enough to be a regular there.

[moonslav59]

Marrero has looked very solid defensively at third. I doubt he can hit enough to be a regular there.

 

I'm not sure Marrero is a plus at 3B, but I do think he's better than anyone else we've tried there this year.

 

Marrero only played 45 innings at 3B on the farm- another example of not getting players ready to play the position we most likely will need them to play.

 

I don't Devon as a 3B solution due to his super weak bat.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com...

 

Third baseman Rafael Devers has long been talked about as the long-term solution at third for the organization, but some, including the Providence Jornal's Tim Britton, are starting to wonder if he could be the answer in the present? Still only 20 years old, Devers has been dominating at a level where he is over four years younger than the average position player. In his first 117 plate appearances, he has hit .324/.393/.590 with 7 home runs and 7 doubles. Those numbers have him in the top 12 in the Eastern League in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, and total bases.

[sk7326]

soxprospects.com...

 

Third baseman Rafael Devers has long been talked about as the long-term solution at third for the organization, but some, including the Providence Jornal's Tim Britton, are starting to wonder if he could be the answer in the present? Still only 20 years old, Devers has been dominating at a level where he is over four years younger than the average position player. In his first 117 plate appearances, he has hit .324/.393/.590 with 7 home runs and 7 doubles. Those numbers have him in the top 12 in the Eastern League in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, and total bases.

 

I think the stat line helps ... but really it is about whether he just deal with the lesser level of instruction. Can he make the adjustments on the fly - turn scouting reports and video analysis into action at the plate? Is he ready for (what I imagine could be) a fairly lonely situation. (although it helps there are a lot of young guys on the team - he'd be the only one who couldn't go to a watering hole)

 

If those answers are fine - there is almost no chance he'd be worse than status quo at 3B. Now this doesn't mean I won't give Sandoval a chance - but Devers deserves credit for making this a conversation we're having in May 2017.

[Spudboy]

117 AB at AA is not only a small sample size, it is just small period.

 

I keep thinking that he needs more seasoning. How much MLB or similar pitching has he faced in pro ball?

 

I remember Francona saying it takes about 1200 MiLB AB before anyone can realistically be expected to be "ready" for a diet of MLB pitching.

 

Devers is 20. Maybe he is the second coming of Tony Oliva, I don't know.

 

I think that his time is best served in AA for now. If he rakes then send him up ( or down as the case is ) to Pawtucket.

[sk7326]

117 AB at AA is not only a small sample size, it is just small period.

 

I keep thinking that he needs more seasoning. How much MLB or similar pitching has he faced in pro ball?

 

I remember Francona saying it takes about 1200 MiLB AB before anyone can realistically be expected to be "ready" for a diet of MLB pitching.

 

Devers is 20. Maybe he is the second coming of Tony Oliva, I don't know.

 

I think that his time is best served in AA for now. If he rakes then send him up ( or down as the case is ) to Pawtucket.

 

I agree - but it also depends on the kid. Scouting the stat line is a problem in any direction.

[mvp 78]

117 AB at AA is not only a small sample size, it is just small period.

 

I keep thinking that he needs more seasoning. How much MLB or similar pitching has he faced in pro ball?

 

I remember Francona saying it takes about 1200 MiLB AB before anyone can realistically be expected to be "ready" for a diet of MLB pitching.

 

Devers is 20. Maybe he is the second coming of Tony Oliva, I don't know.

 

I think that his time is best served in AA for now. If he rakes then send him up ( or down as the case is ) to Pawtucket.

 

Benintendi had only 657 plate appearances. Devers has 1,473.

[Slasher9]

devers NOW!

[illinoisredsox]

Benintendi had only 657 plate appearances. Devers has 1,473.

 

Benintendi also played a couple years of high level major college baseball where he had 550 or so PAs. SEC baseball is probably equivalent to A ball, so it wouldn't be a big stretch to say AB was over 1000 PAs against competition that would mirror a minor league baseball track when he came up (obviously not all of those 550 PAs were against pitchers who would merit pro consideration but a lot of them were).

 

He's also 2 years older; there's something to be said for physical development.

[Jack Flap]

On the subject of Devers and where he is in his development, this is worth a read:

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2017/05/16/red-sox-assistant-gm-eddie-romero-explains-why-rafael-devers-is-still-a-ways-away-from-majors/

 

(He also addresses the question of Benintendi/Devers not being an apples-to-apples comparison when it comes to time spent in the minors...)

[mvp 78]

Rob Bradford is an idiot.

[Spudboy]

Benintendi had only 657 plate appearances. Devers has 1,473.

 

Did you count the fact that AB was playing college ball and exposed to good coaching much earlier?

 

And of course there are exceptions. AB is one of them.

[mvp 78]

Did you count the fact that AB was playing college ball and exposed to good coaching much earlier?

 

And of course there are exceptions. AB is one of them.

 

Is this the same coaching that has trained him to throw the ball all over the place from LF and allowed runners to advanced additional bases?

[Bellhorn04]

Here's what's going to happen. Panda is going to come back and look okay for a few games. After 5 games or so he's going to pull a hammy or some such thing and John Henry is going to go 'Aargh, I can't stand it any more, bring up Devers!'