3rd Third III

[mvp 78]

I was thinking self-cannibalism. One would think self-cannibalism would void any contract. Fffff***in' .... godamn.... capitalism.

 

Hmmm, if he eats enough of himself, would he no longer be fat?

[moonslav59]

He had two great years in 2009 and 2011. It's not like this is a steady decline. He was a 2 - 3 win player from 2012 - 2014. He sucked in 2015 and was injured in 2016. It remains to be seen if he can get himself back to being a 2-3 win player like he was for the majority of his time in SF.

 

I see a big drop from 2011 to 2012, then a slow but steady decline until an even bigger drop when he came here.

 

The uptick on defense prevented his WAR from being a total downward curve, but the curve looks pretty steady to be with maybe a plateau at 2014.

 

WAR:

'11 5.3

'12 2.6

'13 2.0

'14 2.9

'15 -2.0

 

(His 2014 "better WAR" was also largely a result of playing more (638 PAs compared to 584 and 442 the previous 2 seasons).

 

His offense is a complete decline curve:

OPS: .909> .804>.789>.758>.739>.658 (BOS)

1RC+: 149>118>117>110>75 (BOS)

 

His defensive curve shows a little up and mostly down:

UZR/150

+19.3

+1.4

-6.3

+3.5 (2014 was the only uptick)

-21.9 (BOS)

 

DRS

14

-5

-5

4 (2014 w SFG)

-11 (BOS)

 

We can argue semantics, but he showed a pretty much uninterrupted decline since his last good season in 2011. If we want to say he plateau'd in 2014 or did better than 2013, I won't argue, but 2014 was still worse than 2011 and better than 2015.

 

I never saw any reason to think his plateau in 2014 was any reason for optimism. His eroding defense and the .563 OPS vs LHPs in 2014 should have been an alarm that shut the whole idea of a signing down.

 

 

[Emp9]

Hmmm, if he eats enough of himself, would he no longer be fat?

 

Unfortunately no, he'd just grow bigger in other places. It's a widely believed fact.

[mvp 78]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/04/scouting-scratch-rafael-devers.html

 

TLDR:

 

For his age, Devers has an advanced knowledge of the strike zone and solid pitch recognition skills. He still will get caught out in front on breaking pitches, especially early in the count as he aggressively hunts fastballs. With two strikes, however, he will shorten up and has no problem taking what the pitcher gives him.

 

To compliment his potential plus hit tool, Devers also has plus-plus raw power and the potential to hit for plus in-game power. Devers’ swing isn’t the typical, left-handed, power hitter uppercut with a high finish, but when he catches the ball right he can lift the ball and drive it.

 

If you see him play the field, it’s clear that there is no reason to discuss a move off third base at this point. Perhaps, he could eventually become too big, similar to what happened to Miguel Cabrera, but his skills should allow him to stick at third for the foreseeable future.

 

It is telling that given how many top prospects the Red Sox have traded since Dave Dombrowski took over, the two offensive blue chippers they held onto were Andrew Benintendi and Devers... But despite the growing drumbeat from fans to replace Sandoval, Devers is unlikely to be ready to take over the position this season (although, given Dombrowski’s track record, I wouldn’t rule out seeing him at the big league level later this season if the third bases situation is still unsettled).

[Station 13]

Good, what is his ETA? 2018! Too late

[Slasher9]

i still think Panda will be good for us this season but if he falters or continues with the injuries i have zero issues with "rushing" mr. devers to the bigs.....

[moonslav59]

Good, what is his ETA? 2018! Too late

 

The ETA on Beni was 2018 as well.

[mvp 78]

Devers Devers Devers Devers Devers Devers

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=646240#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

 

He's hitting better right now in AA than Moncada or Beni were last year.

[S5Dewey]

Devers Devers Devers Devers Devers Devers

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=646240#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

 

He's hitting better right now in AA than Moncada or Beni were last year.

 

I'm more concerned about his defense. I'm sick of watching routine balls get bobbled and/or thrown away.

[mvp 78]

I'm more concerned about his defense. I'm sick of watching routine balls get bobbled and/or thrown away.

 

He was the minor league defensive player of the year last year for the Red Sox.

[Spudboy]

Trade Devers!!!1!!1!!1

[S5Dewey]

He was the minor league defensive player of the year last year for the Red Sox.

 

If it was at 3B, bring him up YESTERDAY.

[mvp 78]

If it was at 3B, bring him up YESTERDAY.

 

He only plays 3B.

 

Eventually he may move to 1B, but he's a professional defender now. He won't wow you, but he's better than any other 3B they have in the Northeast.

[Slasher9]

Trade Devers!!!1!!1!!1

 

DD just might do this. it is his MO. but you already know that seeing as our farm went from best to worst in wicked fast time.

hopefully it's for another "Sale" and not for a reliever on the DL, a closer that you are going to pay anyways, or a starter that is really a reliever......

[mvp 78]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/04/scouting-scratch-rafael-devers.html

 

A lot of the questions about Devers center around his defense, but these concerns have evolved not from actual concerns about his ability to field but rather questions when he signed about whether he would grow out of third base, necessitating a move to first. If you see him play the field, it’s clear that there is no reason to discuss a move off third base at this point. Perhaps, he could eventually become too big, similar to what happened to Miguel Cabrera, but his skills should allow him to stick at third for the foreseeable future. Devers is a below-average runner already and not the most athletic player, but he shows off surprising range and agility moving both laterally and charging the ball.

 

Over the four games scouted, Devers made one error charging a ball that he stabbed at to the side, rather than fielding out in front, but he also made several very good plays. He has soft hands and his footwork is surprisingly good. He made one very nice play in the season opener ranging to his left to cut off a ball in the hole between third and short, and he made two others that same day charging slow rollers, fielding them with his glove and making smooth transfers to his throwing hand and then strong, accurate throws to first base. Devers has plenty of arm for third with it grading as plus currently. Devers is unlikely to be a Gold Glove candidate, but he also won’t be a butcher and should develop into at least an average third baseman, an outcome the Red Sox will happily accept given his offensive potential.

[mvp 78]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/04/could-rafael-devers-red-sox-answer-third-base/4w1x3FlT1R56UPNIY1PrEL/story.html

 

While everyone on here tries to bum me out about Pedroia, I'm just going to daydream about Rafael Devers.

[Emp9]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/04/could-rafael-devers-red-sox-answer-third-base/4w1x3FlT1R56UPNIY1PrEL/story.html

 

While everyone on here tries to bum me out about Pedroia, I'm just going to daydream about Rafael Devers.

 

Can't we just bring him up and platoon him vs RHPs for a spell? See where he's at with his assumed strengths at the major league level? Plus we'd be getting at the very least average major league defense at 3B for most of that time. People forget, average major league anything is still pretty good (way better than "replacement level" ).

[dustcover]

Supported by the ongoing deficiencies by the carousel of players at 3B it seems quite obvious that the Sox need to fill that void in an otherwise solid starting roster, particularly defensive-wise. So if they are not going after Donaldson, or other competent third-baseman, are we prepared to accept the mediocrity thus far displayed.

 

Mike Lowell, where are you?

[mvp 78]

Supported by the ongoing deficiencies by the carousel of players at 3B it seems quite obvious that the Sox need to fill that void in an otherwise solid starting roster, particularly defensive-wise. So if they are not going after Donaldson, or other competent third-baseman, are we prepared to accept the mediocrity thus far displayed.

 

Mike Lowell, where are you?

 

Mike was replaced by Beltre who was replaced by Youk who was replaced by Middlebrooks and it's been a shitshow ever since. Thanks Will!

[Jack Flap]

Maybe we can sign Machado after next season (lol).

[Slasher9]

Maybe we can sign Machado after next season (lol).

 

lol. well we did sign Foulke, Lackey, and Price. so, who knows?!?

[mvp 78]

@PawSox

 

Red Sox recall INF Deven Marrero from the #PawSox and option Brandon Workman to Pawtucket. #PawSox add INF Jose Rosario from Portland

 

Looks like Spud is getting his wish!

[Station 13]

Replacing a pitcher with someone who hits like one.

[harmony]

@PawSox

 

Red Sox recall INF Deven Marrero from the #PawSox and option Brandon Workman to Pawtucket. #PawSox add INF Jose Rosario from Portland

 

Looks like Spud is getting his wish!

Deven Marrero has posted a .169/.178/.211/.389 line in 73 plate appearances in 19 games this year at Pawtucket (with two errors) after posting a .198/.245/.242/.487 line in 388 plate appearances in 96 games last year (with 14 errors):

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=marrer001dev

[Bellhorn04]

Deven Marrero has posted a .169/.178/.211/.389 line in 73 plate appearances in 19 games this year at Pawtucket (with two errors) after posting a .198/.245/.242/.487 line in 388 plate appearances in 96 games last year (with 14 errors):

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=marrer001dev

 

Don't tell me you didn't enjoy posting that.

[S5Dewey]

Deven Marrero has posted a .169/.178/.211/.389 line in 73 plate appearances in 19 games this year at Pawtucket (with two errors) after posting a .198/.245/.242/.487 line in 388 plate appearances in 96 games last year (with 14 errors):

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=marrer001dev

 

Yeah, but I'll tell ya what... Hernandez has committed 5 errors in 9 games @ 3B with an OPS of .628. That's a pretty low bar that Devers has to clear to be better than Hernandez.

[illinoisredsox]

Replacing a pitcher with someone who hits like one.

 

They had 13 pitchers on the roster last night; that's too many.

[Spudboy]

@PawSox

 

Red Sox recall INF Deven Marrero from the #PawSox and option Brandon Workman to Pawtucket. #PawSox add INF Jose Rosario from Portland

 

Looks like Spud is getting his wish!

 

Not exactly my wish. It just occurred to me when I posted that due to attrition another infielder would be needed. Mererro has been up before and was of little consequence.

 

I think that Farrell will stay with Rutlege at 3rd until he has a viable or hopefully better option. Mererro gives Farrel someone to sub for an infielder other than a 1st baseman and he can pinch run, etc. The team does need a bench to cover all positions. Not sure what he plans for 1st base with Hanley slotted for only DH and Holt supposedly on the mend in Portland.

 

Anyway, one plus from Mererro being brought up is his best Buddy relationship with Betts and Bradley. That may have some benefit as far as moral is concerned.

[illinoisredsox]

The Red Sox have had 5 guys play 3rd this season. The ONLY one who has not committed an error is Selsky, who managed to make the play on the only chance he got in the 3 2/3 inning he played there,

 

The sorry stats are:

 

Sandoval 16 games, 139 1/3 innings, 36 chances, 4 errors

Hernandez 9 games, 72 innings, 25 chances, 5 errors

Rutledge 3 games, 27 innings, 9 chances, 2 errors

Holt 1 game, 8 innings, 2 chances, 1 error

Selsky 1 game, 3 2/3 innings, 1 chance, 0 errors

 

That doesn't even account for balls that get by through the hole for hits that most 3rd basemen make. I don't understand all the advanced fielding metrics, but there's not a single one of the ones listed in Baseball Reference that's a positive number, which can't be good.

[illinoisredsox]

Not exactly my wish. It just occurred to me when I posted that due to attrition another infielder would be needed. Mererro has been up before and was of little consequence.

 

I think that Farrell will stay with Rutlege at 3rd until he has a viable or hopefully better option. Mererro gives Farrel someone to sub for an infielder other than a 1st baseman and he can pinch run, etc. The team does need a bench to cover all positions. Not sure what he plans for 1st base with Hanley slotted for only DH and Holt supposedly on the mend in Portland.

 

Anyway, one plus from Mererro being brought up is his best Buddy relationship with Betts and Bradley. That may have some benefit as far as moral is concerned.

 

The game is simple, hit the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball. So far none of the guys who have played 3rd this year can do any of them with regularity. If Marrero can come up and do the last 2 of those, it's an improvement.